61-24 and have LOST money!!! love you all, BUT....

hansenbros. · Jan 4, 2004

today is a perct example of what i have been doing all year:

on seattle +8 $2000
seattle ml $800 to win $2240

however, animal (who i respect) is pretty big on this game over, so i WOULD HAVE (i didn't)
played:

over 43 for $500
probably would've teased it for
about $250 too

which are both in jeopardy right now, i guess seattle might be too -- shit g bay just sacked hasselback near the seattle end zone!

so, i would have either cut into my profits and/or exacerbated my losses!

thank God, i didn't do that today!

gl

hansenbros. · Jan 4, 2004

gator,

you are so right! the lonely journey -- you are all here to talk to, share thoughts, inspirations, tribulations and triumphs. BUT you guys aren't with me when i have to meet and pay the man -- that trip is a very very forlorn one.

gl

DAWGMAN · Jan 4, 2004

Hansen, as I stated in your plays thread bro, you are valuable asset to this forum! Keep doin what's always worked for you! I for one think your plays are very SOLID, so keep on keepin on my man!!

DAWG

hansenbros. · Jan 4, 2004

dawg,

dawg -- likewise my friend. you are a vital cog here, you are responsible for making this forum vibrant!

gl

SoCal · Jan 4, 2004

very interesting thread. i agree with you 100% in that this forum...or ANY forum in which you respect multiple posters opinions often confuses a game that you felt pretty strongly about (or any game your considering for that matter).

here's another scenario. for example today... LSUPete has been giving great insight all year to LSU games. he made a few bold predictions against the grain and they came thru. TODAY, in the biggest game for LSU in 50 years, he's going against his team with some honest capping insight and taking OKL. A quick check in other threads have some well repsected cappers calling LSU a very strong pick. i capped the game a "no-play" myself, i didnt see a good enough angle. Pete's thread had me about ready to drive 100 mph to Mexico to get a bet in on OKL. but after reading all the other people on LSU... forget it. I'm sticking with my guns. its a no play. its going to be entertaining. i have an uncashed 5 team parlay ticket in my pocket that i would LOVE to have in play tonite on OKL... but forget it. this forum can and will cost you money if you let it influence you on too many games.

FYI, 5 teamer: Miami, OSU, Ole Miss, USC, and Carolina

hansenbros. · Jan 4, 2004

socal,

i admire your convictions!! i also admire your 5 team par winner -- GREAT work! little disappointed that lsupete is on okl, i haven't worked on that game completely, but initial thoughts are lsu. see

gl

bloatedliver · Jan 4, 2004

This just comfirms why I have quit posting my plays in the NFL Forum . I have been extremely inconsistent in the NFL this year and don't want someone using my plays to influence their card. I know you're not looking for apologies Hansen, but I do regret if any of my posts have cost you money.

Liver

bearmz · Jan 4, 2004

I have to agree with the Hood. I've been playing the games for approx. 30 yrs. I use flat bets. As you well know, no such thing as a lock. I don't care if you cap a game as a sure thing, you cannot cap T/Os and injuries. It's nice to hit the GOYs, but hurts like hell when it goes down and your other smaller unit plays don't add up to cover the big one. If you play a GOY as a 5unit and play three 1 units, if the GOY goes down, you lose even going 3-1. I, myself would take the 3-1 win. Flat bet is wise.
One other thing, when you can cap at your %, use your first instinct. There are other very good cappers here, otherwise this site would not get such a good response. Use their plays to either increase your confidence, not size of bet, or to lay off a lean.
GL in the future. If you can cap at such a good rate, you will get this straightened out. I'll put a unit on it.

winbet · Jan 4, 2004

Hanson,

Stop ****ing around, open the bank account. You are smart enough to know how to do it, you wont regret it.

As they say on the Nike advert.

JUST DO IT.

goldencontender · Jan 4, 2004

hey hansen,i understand how you feel,there have been times that i would cap a card and have a system play that i love it could be like 90% and then ill hear that mac or capone has a big game then ill switch off the game and not make a play. then the game will win.ill have made no money,the next day ill be up here trying to get his next big play figuring hes due.next year im putting together a list of people that i respect and im only playing their top games that are documented to win year in and year out.its not gonna be a list of100 guys neither only 5 or 6 thats it.the rest of the games i cap. im playing the side i pick,only CERTAIN games i will stay off but its not gonna be a regular thing. otherwise it will feel like this yeardrive 99 yards all the time and always kick a field goal. bol to you. GC.

hansenbros. · Jan 4, 2004

liver,

even though we don't know each other i consider you a friend. you are one of the first guys i seek out, and no you didn't hurt me at all I hurt me. your year in ncaa was typically very solid, and the nfl will be back next!!! i appreciate your unnecessary regrets you are class, and a friend!

gl

hansenbros. · Jan 4, 2004

bearmz,

thanks buddy -- today was actually pretty decent

gl

hansenbros. · Jan 4, 2004

gc

good idea, if you come up with a list do me a favor and let me know! thanks

gl

ESQAJM · Jan 4, 2004

BernieVegas: I understand what you are saying when you say "Handicap your own plays and do not follow other cappers" and why you are saying it.

But what do you do when you find out (like myself) that you are only a 50% capper? Years ago I did all my own capping and for years I hit 50% or less and lost money regularly every year to the book. How many cappers on this board can honesty say they hit 55% or better every year.

I only bet the NFL and like Hansen am a recreational bettor that likes the idea of having extra money from the winnings and watching the games with bets riding on them.

I only increased my winning % when I started following cappers who I realized were better than me. Even when I did this I was still losing until I started using discipline and money management. I've never had a losing season once I started doing that.

ESQAJM

oldmanTED · Jan 4, 2004

Hansen:

If you are capable of winning at a consistent rate above 55%, you can show a profit with good money management and discipline. You should always trust your own judgement and stay with your own convictions and not jump around. The more games you play, the more the vig will eat up your bankroll. Look at the long view and use a bankroll for each sport. Make sure the money is separate from all living expenses. Locked up in a different bank account and only use that money for wagering. If varying your wagers are hurting you, then flat wager and raise the amount as the bankroll grows. It should be a percentage of your bankroll, like 1% or 2%. If you do this, you won't chase, because you will gradually see your bankroll increasing which, in turn, will allow you to wager more. Trust yourself and look longterm. You can do it. If you are good enough to go 61-24, you are more than capable of money management. Dig deep inside and ask yourself what your goal is and then follow it. Good luck to you.

gamblingislife · Jan 4, 2004

I feel for you Hansen. I'm having a typical year for me this year. Good winnings yet it will take me two more years like this one to make up for last year. I hit a cold streak lost my confidence and started paying too much attention to what others had to say. Even then i could only take their losers. The only bets i won were small and i lost almost every large play. This year i regained my confidence and played my large plays large no matter what anyone had to say. I still read the boards extracting information from the few people i respect to cement my leans and my leans only. With your record you should try being more arrogant and trust yourself more than anyone else. It is your money that you're betting and the only person you can really trust is yourself.

MYFOOTBALLGAME · Jan 5, 2004

Hansen--I read your post earlier today and was wanting to respond when I had some time. I think everyone that gambles has been in your shoes and we often times revisit those shoes every now and then. I look to see what several cappers post including yourself. I value your plays, just wish you would post them sooner.
I will always bet considerably more on my own picks that I handicap because I can handle my own bad decisions, but it's hard to take someone else's mistakes and count them as your own--as we financially have to do with someone else's losing picks.
You are a very solid capper and should formulate your opinions and leans and not change them to the opposite side. I will personally bet 1-2% of my bankroll on picks that I personally like. If I have a small lean on a game and a solid capper such as yourself or someone else has a play on it then I may play it for .50%. If I don't have a lean and just want to go with a solid cappers pick that I have no opinion on then I may play for .10-.20% of my bankroll. Just in order to take advantage of their handicapping ability and my interest in having some action on the game.
Most of us know what we are doing wrong, but just have to apply the discipline to put the plan into action. I'm sure you can do it.
On another note, sometimes the best way to handicap a game is by watching the first half. Then you can apply what others said about a game and watch the first half and then make a nice size wager on the 2nd half. I look at 2nd half plays as some of the very best opportunities to make money. Sometimes it might be to get out of a losing bet, sometimes to double down on a bet you really like, and sometimes just to apply the work you have done by watching the first half and look to cash on it in the 2nd half.
Good luck to you and feel free to e-mail me anytime.

harrington · Jan 5, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by theerodfather:
HANSEN
IT TAKES A MAN OF GREAT STRENGTH TO ADMIT HIS WEAKNESS.I HAVE BEEN WHERE YOU ARE AT MANY TIMES IN THE PAST.IT IS GUYS LIKE YOU WHO ARE THE HEART AND SOUL OF THE FORUM.YOU ARE ON TOP OF MY LIST AND I AM GLAD TO HAVE YOU AS A FORUM BROTHER.THANKS FOR OPENING UP TO US.LETS KEEP GOING AND BURY THE MAN IN 2004.HAPPY NEW YEAR.
THEERODFATHER<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I hope he doesn't take advise from you because you are the biggest joke on these forums the way you throw play money around.

hansenbros. · Jan 5, 2004

old man,

thanks for the reply. this might sound very ignorant, but i really don't have a bankroll -- never have. i've been doing this for 25 years --before the advent of the internet myself, my father, and brother flew to vegas EVERY weekend, were comped (usually at cesars) played sat and sun then would come home sun nite. then wiht the internet casinos we were able to abolish all that work. we've won, won handsomely, damn near every year. i also own a construction company (with the family) and money has never really been an issue. i've lost now and then, but always seemed to make it up or close to it, never really lost 40 dimes as i have this year.
the aspect that makes this year so frustrating is that i'm having a better than normal year capping and i'm down

i'm just sick about it! like i said i should be up at least 50 dimes, closer to 60, yet, i'm down 40

to be honest, i really didn't know what hit me tell i started adding things up. i know that sound very irresponsible, but tuthfully it has NEVER been an issue prior to this year. once again, thanks for the reply -- and i REALLY REALLY hope you chose to stick around -- you are a valued asset here.

gl

hansenbros. · Jan 5, 2004

gamblingslife,

i guess the best word i can think of here is that this forum is "intoxicating". literally! i loose my judgement and kind of become an action addict. here's to hoping i find the wisdom, and courage to never let this happen again. thank you!

gl