esqajm,
you sir are a fine gentleman. that was probably the nicest post i've ever had sent to me. i'd love to sit down with you and chat handicapping. you obviously could teach me a thing or two. and you are very correct DISCIPLINE!!! it is difficult, but then again so has been paying the man when i know i should be receiving
lack of the extra cash that i'm accustom to hurts! and i bust my balls -- i'd say about thirty hours a week capping games -- then lose $$$. it's like paying to work. i'm just thoroughly disgusted with myself right now
once again, thank you and i will look you up one of these days.
ps
if it's not too personal could you explain your moniker? was always curious.
gl
you sir are a fine gentleman. that was probably the nicest post i've ever had sent to me. i'd love to sit down with you and chat handicapping. you obviously could teach me a thing or two. and you are very correct DISCIPLINE!!! it is difficult, but then again so has been paying the man when i know i should be receiving
ps
if it's not too personal could you explain your moniker? was always curious.
gl
Hansen, you're right about the discipline aspect when it comes to betting.
It's been said many times by the true professionals that the only way to bet is NOT to vary the size of your wager game to game, or week to week...although you, me and just about everyone else posting here make that mistake.
(You know the trap...3 units on this game and 5 units on that!) A win is a win and vice versa, and there is know way to really know which games are more or less likely to come through for you.
When you start varying the size of your bets you eliminate any handicapping edge you might have gained, and reduced your chances of winning even more to sheer luck! (minus 10% juice)
Decide what the amount your 1 unit will be... $400, $2000, whatever, and bet that same amount every game.
It,s boring I'll admit, and requires great discipline when you know/think certain games are almost a sure thing to hit, but if you really hit 60 or 70% over the season...you are guaranteed to win $$$$$$$$
It's been said many times by the true professionals that the only way to bet is NOT to vary the size of your wager game to game, or week to week...although you, me and just about everyone else posting here make that mistake.
(You know the trap...3 units on this game and 5 units on that!) A win is a win and vice versa, and there is know way to really know which games are more or less likely to come through for you.
When you start varying the size of your bets you eliminate any handicapping edge you might have gained, and reduced your chances of winning even more to sheer luck! (minus 10% juice)
Decide what the amount your 1 unit will be... $400, $2000, whatever, and bet that same amount every game.
It,s boring I'll admit, and requires great discipline when you know/think certain games are almost a sure thing to hit, but if you really hit 60 or 70% over the season...you are guaranteed to win $$$$$$$$
razor,
you are unbeleivable!! awesome post! you write with the same deep insight as you do with your picks; you hit on several things; one was more relevant to me than a view of the others and that was the addictive personality part. that to a greater extent is my problem -- with this forum i'm the fox that just got the keys to the henhouse. i REALLY need to get control. where do you go for post of the week, month or whatever -- i wnat to nominate you! thank you.
gl
you are unbeleivable!! awesome post! you write with the same deep insight as you do with your picks; you hit on several things; one was more relevant to me than a view of the others and that was the addictive personality part. that to a greater extent is my problem -- with this forum i'm the fox that just got the keys to the henhouse. i REALLY need to get control. where do you go for post of the week, month or whatever -- i wnat to nominate you! thank you.
gl
Hansen,
Over the years I have met very few people with complete discipline, so trying to attain it is not the approach.
We all know the bets we are talking about. The guesses, kill an hour in the betting office while the wife does the shopping, live event on the TV, dont know the form but I'll have a bet anyways.When these bets lose, we console ourselves by saying We were only having a bit of fun.
Some years back I was discussing this problem with a Professional punter and pointed out that I had never seen him put a bet on that wasn't well thought out. His reply surprised me when he said that he does them all the time, but that he bets them with himself.
Since then I have made money every year by putting my stupid bets into a separate bank account. I know this sounds like a joke but if you open a bank account, put in your losses, take out your winnings, I gaurantee by next Christmas you will be laughing.
Best of luck for the new year.
Over the years I have met very few people with complete discipline, so trying to attain it is not the approach.
We all know the bets we are talking about. The guesses, kill an hour in the betting office while the wife does the shopping, live event on the TV, dont know the form but I'll have a bet anyways.When these bets lose, we console ourselves by saying We were only having a bit of fun.
Some years back I was discussing this problem with a Professional punter and pointed out that I had never seen him put a bet on that wasn't well thought out. His reply surprised me when he said that he does them all the time, but that he bets them with himself.
Since then I have made money every year by putting my stupid bets into a separate bank account. I know this sounds like a joke but if you open a bank account, put in your losses, take out your winnings, I gaurantee by next Christmas you will be laughing.
Best of luck for the new year.
Hansen, you just wrote one of the great posts in betting sites history, and also initiated a thread that contains some very valuable stuff in it. First of all, I totally relate to everything you said. It is very easy to be swayed by all the glitzy names and their GOYs or whatever. It seems like we should be millionaires, and suddenly before we realize it we've lost all our money. I've discovered that the best way to use the info is to up a bet I already had if some reputable people are on it. Otherwise, it's me against the world. Yesterday I was against the "syndicate" on two plays in cbb. I'd already played Marshall and Miss St and the "syndicate" came out with XXX Large plays on C Mich and ArkLR. I hated seeing that, I wanted them to back me. WTF, I backed them down and held my ground, and ended up winning both games. Now if they had been on a game I'd already decided on, I probably would have upped my bet. Anyway, It's taken 25 years for me to learn to feel this way. Not long ago I'd have cancelled my bets and gone with theirs, then sat there in mortification as my original plays won while I lost my money.
Anyway, every year I learn new lessons in this game. I haven't perfected it yet by a long shot, but I'm still holding my ground.
Hope to still see you around, buddy.
Anyway, every year I learn new lessons in this game. I haven't perfected it yet by a long shot, but I'm still holding my ground.
Hope to still see you around, buddy.
Hansen
Sorry to hear about your situation. You have been a major contributor here for some time and you bringing this to light is an eye opener for everyone...Anyone who has gambled on sports for any length of time has gone through your same situation.
I think you hit the nail on the head when you said the key to this type of dilemna is DISCIPLINE!!!! Along with MONEY MANAGEMENT, DISCIPLINE is right next to it.....
When younger guys ask me what they are doing wrong when they are picking winners, albeit still losing money I tell them to first address MONEY MANAGEMENT. You have for the few years I've seen you on here have always picked considerably more winners than losers. So based on that one would think you'd definitely be in the plus. This brings me to my next advice to those starting out. Study and get proficient in capping games yourself. Do not look to play others selections and do not pay for others selections. Reason being, when a games loses that someone else touted one has a greater sense of feeling bad because you listened to them. If its a game you capped and it goes down well it went down because of your OWN capping or some mis-fortune in the game. Also, I tell people if you are on a game and someone else is touting the same play do not raise your bet accordingly. Several things to be considered by all...
Since I know you've hit at a nice percentage over the period I've seen you, I'd dance with whats best, YOUR OWN PLAYS ALWAYS!!! In all due repect those plays have been good and you go to the dance with what got you there...Others plays may win and may lose but your frame of mind would be better if you played YOUR OWN PLAYS!!!
Regards and the Best to You
Bernie
Sorry to hear about your situation. You have been a major contributor here for some time and you bringing this to light is an eye opener for everyone...Anyone who has gambled on sports for any length of time has gone through your same situation.
I think you hit the nail on the head when you said the key to this type of dilemna is DISCIPLINE!!!! Along with MONEY MANAGEMENT, DISCIPLINE is right next to it.....
When younger guys ask me what they are doing wrong when they are picking winners, albeit still losing money I tell them to first address MONEY MANAGEMENT. You have for the few years I've seen you on here have always picked considerably more winners than losers. So based on that one would think you'd definitely be in the plus. This brings me to my next advice to those starting out. Study and get proficient in capping games yourself. Do not look to play others selections and do not pay for others selections. Reason being, when a games loses that someone else touted one has a greater sense of feeling bad because you listened to them. If its a game you capped and it goes down well it went down because of your OWN capping or some mis-fortune in the game. Also, I tell people if you are on a game and someone else is touting the same play do not raise your bet accordingly. Several things to be considered by all...
Since I know you've hit at a nice percentage over the period I've seen you, I'd dance with whats best, YOUR OWN PLAYS ALWAYS!!! In all due repect those plays have been good and you go to the dance with what got you there...Others plays may win and may lose but your frame of mind would be better if you played YOUR OWN PLAYS!!!
Regards and the Best to You
Bernie
winbet
i do do that tv betting stuff on monday nite, and on the bowl games and it's usually just a couple hundred here, a couple hundred there. my problem is betting relatively large on what i preceive as good info that correspondingly falls apart. i LOVE the idea with the betting yourself, quarter decade in this godforsaken business and you'd think you've heard it all. awesome idea!
gl
i do do that tv betting stuff on monday nite, and on the bowl games and it's usually just a couple hundred here, a couple hundred there. my problem is betting relatively large on what i preceive as good info that correspondingly falls apart. i LOVE the idea with the betting yourself, quarter decade in this godforsaken business and you'd think you've heard it all. awesome idea!
gl
bernie,
you are dead on right -- it's just getting there. it's like the guy who knows he doesn't need another drink, but has one anyhow. i know i should be just betting 3 or 4 games on a given sat sunday and if i did i would be swimming in it. but at the days end i realize i made 10 to 15 plays and i'm drowning in debt
thanks my friend!
gl
you are dead on right -- it's just getting there. it's like the guy who knows he doesn't need another drink, but has one anyhow. i know i should be just betting 3 or 4 games on a given sat sunday and if i did i would be swimming in it. but at the days end i realize i made 10 to 15 plays and i'm drowning in debt
gl
Hansen, you sir,have the Most guts of anyone here. Starting this post takes guts. We have ALL been through and sometimes still go through what you have experienced. There is some Awesome advice here. I have found that Your Own initial thoughts are the best. I sometimes have a problem with money management by playing a lot more on some picks. You are right about this forum being intoxicating. We feel that all of us are family and we are all here to help each other.I feel like I know most of the posters personally. Someone mentioned that this endeavor was a lonely excerise. Most insightful term I have heard. You cannot just go out and buy experience, you must earn it.Age and longevity help us acquire it. Sorry for the rambling. Hang in there and I feel that we are truly brothers. Thank you for baring your heart to us. LT
