World Cup Betting Guide for Friday
Portugal has already advanced by virtue of a 2-0-0 record through two matches, and another win or a draw will earn them the top spot in Group H.
South Korea has a single point through two matches thanks to a scoreless draw with Uruguay in their opener. They lost 3-2 to Ghana in their follow-up match despite an expected goal (xG) win of 1.8 to 1.6.
Through two matches, Portugal ranks fifth in adjusted xG average (1.65) but has allowed 1.29 adjusted xG per game (20th among World Cup teams). South Korea is 16th offensively (1.10) and 22nd defensively (1.43).
South Korea will be doing all they can to win, but a win for Portugal earns them a clean sweep of the group. Portugal's moneyline (-130) actually seems a bit light. I have their expected win odds at -165.
A win for either side gets them through to the Round of 16, and advancement scenarios exist for each even with a draw. But with the win-and-advance stakes, both sides should be locked in.
Ghana, despite three full points earned through a win over South Korea, ranks just 24th in adjusted xG differential among World Cup teams and is actually 29th in xG allowed (1.88 per match).
Uruguay is one of 10 teams to rank top-15 in both adjusted xG offense and defense so far in this World Cup.
numberFire views Uruguay's moneyline (-140) -- in a virtual must-win situation -- as a five-star play (out of five).
It also likes the under (2.5 at -126) as a four-star play, and my model projects expected odds of -155 for this match to stay under 2.5 goals.
Like Portugal, Brazil has six points through two matches, and they're projected to rely on some reserves more than usual in this matchup. That still shouldn't change things too drastically. A win or draw guarantees first place in Group G.
Cameroon needs a win and help; if Serbia loses to Switzerland, their World Cup is over.
Though Cameroon is 9th in adjusted xG for (1.47 per match), they're 27th defensively (1.63).
Brazil is 3rd in expected offense (1.74) with opponent adjustments.
With Cameroon's spotty defense (but a solid offense of their own) and depth to spare for Brazil, my model is preferring this one to go over 2.5 goals (-128) among all the standard bets for this game.
This matchup rates out very evenly, and that's reflected in the win odds for each side. A win for either country pushes them through to the Round of 16, so they won't be playing for draws.
These teams have close marks in adjusted xG offensively (1.04 for Serbia and 0.94 for Switzerland, ranking 18th and 19th, respectively). But the gap comes via their defenses through two matches.
Switzerland (0.79 adjusted xG allowed) ranks 7th among World Cup teams; Serbia (2.25) is last in the World Cup. Serbia allowed 2.4 xG to Brazil and 2.2 to Cameroon. Switzerland held those teams to 1.0 and 0.7, respectively.
Switzerland (+1.0) at -220 odds is a good play even at the odds.
South Korea (+330) vs. Portugal (-135)
Draw odds: +300Portugal has already advanced by virtue of a 2-0-0 record through two matches, and another win or a draw will earn them the top spot in Group H.
South Korea has a single point through two matches thanks to a scoreless draw with Uruguay in their opener. They lost 3-2 to Ghana in their follow-up match despite an expected goal (xG) win of 1.8 to 1.6.
Through two matches, Portugal ranks fifth in adjusted xG average (1.65) but has allowed 1.29 adjusted xG per game (20th among World Cup teams). South Korea is 16th offensively (1.10) and 22nd defensively (1.43).
South Korea will be doing all they can to win, but a win for Portugal earns them a clean sweep of the group. Portugal's moneyline (-130) actually seems a bit light. I have their expected win odds at -165.
Ghana (+380) vs. Uruguay (-140)
Draw odds: +270A win for either side gets them through to the Round of 16, and advancement scenarios exist for each even with a draw. But with the win-and-advance stakes, both sides should be locked in.
Ghana, despite three full points earned through a win over South Korea, ranks just 24th in adjusted xG differential among World Cup teams and is actually 29th in xG allowed (1.88 per match).
Uruguay is one of 10 teams to rank top-15 in both adjusted xG offense and defense so far in this World Cup.
numberFire views Uruguay's moneyline (-140) -- in a virtual must-win situation -- as a five-star play (out of five).
It also likes the under (2.5 at -126) as a four-star play, and my model projects expected odds of -155 for this match to stay under 2.5 goals.
Cameroon (+700) vs. Brazil (-250)
Draw odds: +370Like Portugal, Brazil has six points through two matches, and they're projected to rely on some reserves more than usual in this matchup. That still shouldn't change things too drastically. A win or draw guarantees first place in Group G.
Cameroon needs a win and help; if Serbia loses to Switzerland, their World Cup is over.
Though Cameroon is 9th in adjusted xG for (1.47 per match), they're 27th defensively (1.63).
Brazil is 3rd in expected offense (1.74) with opponent adjustments.
With Cameroon's spotty defense (but a solid offense of their own) and depth to spare for Brazil, my model is preferring this one to go over 2.5 goals (-128) among all the standard bets for this game.
Serbia (+160) vs. Switzerland (+175)
Draw odds: +230This matchup rates out very evenly, and that's reflected in the win odds for each side. A win for either country pushes them through to the Round of 16, so they won't be playing for draws.
These teams have close marks in adjusted xG offensively (1.04 for Serbia and 0.94 for Switzerland, ranking 18th and 19th, respectively). But the gap comes via their defenses through two matches.
Switzerland (0.79 adjusted xG allowed) ranks 7th among World Cup teams; Serbia (2.25) is last in the World Cup. Serbia allowed 2.4 xG to Brazil and 2.2 to Cameroon. Switzerland held those teams to 1.0 and 0.7, respectively.
Switzerland (+1.0) at -220 odds is a good play even at the odds.
Sat betting guide
America! Four years after failing to qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia, Gregg Berhalter’s Yanks have done the nation proud in their return to the sport’s biggest stage.
After going unbeaten in a difficult group that featured England, Iran, and Wales, the USMNT have reached the knockout round for the sixth time in program history, and there’s optimism they can extend their stay in Qatar for at least another match.
Much of that hope stems from the formidable way they’ve defended at this tournament.
The US has yet to concede from open play, allowing only a Gareth Bale penalty -- a run that includes a shutout of an English side that scored a tournament-high nine goals in their other two group matches.
They’ve not been surviving on a bevy of saves by Matt Turner, either. Tim Ream and Co. are allowing just 6.3 shots per game, the fourth-fewest among the 32 teams assembled on the Arabian Peninsula.
Similarly, the Dutch -- who, like the US, were a shock non-participant at Russia 2018 -- also went unbeaten in their opening three matches in Qatar thanks to an equally staunch defensive record.
Like the Americans, Louis Van Gaal’s side has conceded just once thus far, but they haven’t impressed on the other end against what universally was considered the weakest group in the field.
The Oranje managed only eight shots on goal combined against Senegal, Ecuador, and Qatar, highlighted by a paltry expected goal (xG) total of 0.1 in their 1-1 draw with the Ecuadorians.
In short, in this matchup of defensive-minded sides, don’t expect a lot of scoring in this match… even though the last meeting between these two was a 4-3 friendly victory for the Americans in 2015.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections have the Netherlands’ win probability at 66.4%. In 11 games this calendar year, the Dutch are 8-0-3, with every match in that span against a team that qualified for Qatar. Even if they’ve not looked great in this tournament, they’re favorites in this one for a reason.
Call To Action: Neither side has been particularly sharp offensively, and both have proven difficult to break down, so expect a tight, low-scoring affair Saturday morning. With that in mind, neither side presents great value to advance straight up, so consider backing either team to move on in extra time (+550) or on penalties (+450). Note that three of the eight Round-of-16 matches in the 2018 World Cup went to extra time, and all three were decided on kicks from the spot.
Here are the blind resumes of the two teams involved in this Round of 16 match:
Team A has allowed the fewest shots per game (3.7) of any team in Qatar and has kept two clean sheets en route to a pair of victories. Offensively, Team A has scored in all three group-stage matches. Their lone loss came in the opening match of group play after their opposition erased a one-goal deficit.
Team B has made the most interceptions (34) of any team in Qatar and has posted two clean sheets en route to a pair of victories. Offensively, Team B has scored in all three group-stage matches. Their lone loss came in the opening match of group play after their opposition erased a one-goal deficit.
See?! The Argentines and the Aussies aren’t all that different! Take the Socceroos at +1140!!
Team A (Argentina) has been a great defensive side -- they’ve limited their opposition to a minuscule average xG of 0.23 – but in attack, they’re also second in the tournament in shots on goal (22), passes completed (1,713), and possession (66.9%). They also have arguably the world’s greatest ever player in their starting XI.
Team B (Australia) has shown they can defend in a low block against Tunisia and Denmark, but they conceded four goals to a high-flying French side on Matchday 1 -- and it could’ve been much worse. Offensively, of the 32 teams taking part in Qatar, the Socceroos rank 28th in shots per game (7) and 27th in possession (36.7%), and they boast an average xG of 0.6 despite scoring a goal in each match.
Still, despite what the numbers say, the blueprint to victory for the Aussies -- who got to this World Cup only after beating Peru on penalties in an intercontinental playoff -- has already been laid out by Saudi Arabia, who defeated Argentina 2-1 on Matchday 1.
In that match, the Albiceleste became frustrated by a series of missed chances and offside calls. The Saudis hit them with two goals on the counter, and panic ensued as the pressure mounted.
If -- and it’s a big if -- Graham Arnold’s side can frustrate Lionel Messi and Co. in a similar fashion, there’s a chance they could pull off the upset against the team with the second-best odds (+490) to claim the World Cup title, but it feels like Argentina have already had their wake-up call and shouldn’t be troubled by this overachieving squad from Down Under.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections have Argentina’s win probability at a whopping 78%, the second-highest number in the Round of 16. Prior to their loss against Saudi Arabia, the South American giants had gone 36 matches unbeaten, the second-longest streak in international men’s soccer history.
Call To Action: The two-time World Cup champs are such massive favorites that it doesn’t make much sense to back them straight-up, so if you like Argentina, the best value lies in picking the correct score. Lionel Scaloni’s team has allowed just four goals in 12 matches this calendar year, so Argentina to win 1-0 (+480), 2-0 (+380), or even 3-0 (+500) is very much in play.
Netherlands (-235 to advance) vs. USA (+190)
Khalifa International Stadium | Ar-Rayyan, Qatar | 10 a.m. ESTAmerica! Four years after failing to qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia, Gregg Berhalter’s Yanks have done the nation proud in their return to the sport’s biggest stage.
After going unbeaten in a difficult group that featured England, Iran, and Wales, the USMNT have reached the knockout round for the sixth time in program history, and there’s optimism they can extend their stay in Qatar for at least another match.
Much of that hope stems from the formidable way they’ve defended at this tournament.
The US has yet to concede from open play, allowing only a Gareth Bale penalty -- a run that includes a shutout of an English side that scored a tournament-high nine goals in their other two group matches.
They’ve not been surviving on a bevy of saves by Matt Turner, either. Tim Ream and Co. are allowing just 6.3 shots per game, the fourth-fewest among the 32 teams assembled on the Arabian Peninsula.
Similarly, the Dutch -- who, like the US, were a shock non-participant at Russia 2018 -- also went unbeaten in their opening three matches in Qatar thanks to an equally staunch defensive record.
Like the Americans, Louis Van Gaal’s side has conceded just once thus far, but they haven’t impressed on the other end against what universally was considered the weakest group in the field.
The Oranje managed only eight shots on goal combined against Senegal, Ecuador, and Qatar, highlighted by a paltry expected goal (xG) total of 0.1 in their 1-1 draw with the Ecuadorians.
In short, in this matchup of defensive-minded sides, don’t expect a lot of scoring in this match… even though the last meeting between these two was a 4-3 friendly victory for the Americans in 2015.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections have the Netherlands’ win probability at 66.4%. In 11 games this calendar year, the Dutch are 8-0-3, with every match in that span against a team that qualified for Qatar. Even if they’ve not looked great in this tournament, they’re favorites in this one for a reason.
Call To Action: Neither side has been particularly sharp offensively, and both have proven difficult to break down, so expect a tight, low-scoring affair Saturday morning. With that in mind, neither side presents great value to advance straight up, so consider backing either team to move on in extra time (+550) or on penalties (+450). Note that three of the eight Round-of-16 matches in the 2018 World Cup went to extra time, and all three were decided on kicks from the spot.
Argentina (-1800) vs. Australia (+1140)
Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium | Ar-Rayyan, Qatar | 2pm ETHere are the blind resumes of the two teams involved in this Round of 16 match:
Team A has allowed the fewest shots per game (3.7) of any team in Qatar and has kept two clean sheets en route to a pair of victories. Offensively, Team A has scored in all three group-stage matches. Their lone loss came in the opening match of group play after their opposition erased a one-goal deficit.
Team B has made the most interceptions (34) of any team in Qatar and has posted two clean sheets en route to a pair of victories. Offensively, Team B has scored in all three group-stage matches. Their lone loss came in the opening match of group play after their opposition erased a one-goal deficit.
See?! The Argentines and the Aussies aren’t all that different! Take the Socceroos at +1140!!
Team A (Argentina) has been a great defensive side -- they’ve limited their opposition to a minuscule average xG of 0.23 – but in attack, they’re also second in the tournament in shots on goal (22), passes completed (1,713), and possession (66.9%). They also have arguably the world’s greatest ever player in their starting XI.
Team B (Australia) has shown they can defend in a low block against Tunisia and Denmark, but they conceded four goals to a high-flying French side on Matchday 1 -- and it could’ve been much worse. Offensively, of the 32 teams taking part in Qatar, the Socceroos rank 28th in shots per game (7) and 27th in possession (36.7%), and they boast an average xG of 0.6 despite scoring a goal in each match.
Still, despite what the numbers say, the blueprint to victory for the Aussies -- who got to this World Cup only after beating Peru on penalties in an intercontinental playoff -- has already been laid out by Saudi Arabia, who defeated Argentina 2-1 on Matchday 1.
In that match, the Albiceleste became frustrated by a series of missed chances and offside calls. The Saudis hit them with two goals on the counter, and panic ensued as the pressure mounted.
If -- and it’s a big if -- Graham Arnold’s side can frustrate Lionel Messi and Co. in a similar fashion, there’s a chance they could pull off the upset against the team with the second-best odds (+490) to claim the World Cup title, but it feels like Argentina have already had their wake-up call and shouldn’t be troubled by this overachieving squad from Down Under.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections have Argentina’s win probability at a whopping 78%, the second-highest number in the Round of 16. Prior to their loss against Saudi Arabia, the South American giants had gone 36 matches unbeaten, the second-longest streak in international men’s soccer history.
Call To Action: The two-time World Cup champs are such massive favorites that it doesn’t make much sense to back them straight-up, so if you like Argentina, the best value lies in picking the correct score. Lionel Scaloni’s team has allowed just four goals in 12 matches this calendar year, so Argentina to win 1-0 (+480), 2-0 (+380), or even 3-0 (+500) is very much in play.
Betting guide for Sunday
To put it mildly, reigning world champions France are big, big favorites to move on to the quarterfinal stage at Poland’s expense.
After all, Les Bleus have looked irresistible at this tournament, topping Group D at a canter after averaging 3 goals per match in convincing wins over Australia and Denmark and ranking top six in the field in shots per game (18, 2nd), shots on target per game (5.7, 5th), and pass completion (87.2%, 6th).
Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider 33% of that data is drawn from a meaningless Matchday 3 loss to Tunisia that saw Didier Deschamps make nine changes to their starting XI after having already qualified for the Round of 16.
Their opposition, meanwhile, had to sweat out qualification until the group stage’s final whistle.
After drawing with Mexico, beating Saudi Arabia, and losing to Argentina, Poland only progressed to the knockouts on FIFA’s “fair play” system -- the seventh tiebreaker -- which gave them the nod over El Tri after accruing fewer yellow cards at the tournament.
So now the Eagles find themselves at this stage at a World Cup for the first time since 1986, and while they do feature one of the world's best in Barcelona goal machine and 2021 Ballon d’Or runner-up Robert Lewandowski, they’ve struggled mightily to produce much of anything in the opposition’s end.
Much of that has been due to a territorial disadvantage that they’ve struggled to overcome.
Of the 32 sides taking part in Qatar, Poland have spent the second-most time in their own third and the second-fewest time in the attacking third -- only Costa Rica have posted worse numbers -- and the only two goals they’ve managed at this tournament came late against a Saudi Arabian team ranked 51st in the world.
It’s easy to forget, but had Polish keeper Wojciech Szczęsny not saved two penalties in the group stage, this team would already be back home.
Given how strong this French side is, it’s likely the Juventus man was just delaying the inevitable.
Going Deeper: Somewhat surprisingly, numberFire’s projections have France’s win probability at 53.3%. If Poland can spring the upset, it’d be the first time they’ll have beaten Les Bleus since 1982.
Call To Action: It’s hard to back France straight-up with the odds as such, but Poland have shown little to suggest they’ll offer much resistance. Still, Didier Deschamp’s defense has been far from perfect -- in eleven matches in 2022, they’ve allowed at least one goal in nine of them -- so perhaps taking the French to win but both teams to score (+250) might offer the best value in this potentially lopsided contest.
This battle of European runners-up versus reigning African champions could shape up to be one of the more interesting matchups in the Round of 16.
In one corner, there’s an English side who went unbeaten to top Group B, scoring a joint-tournament high nine goals in the process and managing 17 shots on target, third-most in the field.
Gareth Southgate’s team were also efficient in possession in the group stage, connecting on 88.7% of their passes while carving open Iran and Wales and giving off Russia 2018 and Euro 2020 vibes -- two tournaments that saw them reach the semifinals and final, respectively.
In the other corner lies a Senegalese team brimming with confidence after a dramatic AFCON title win one year ago.
Even without injured Ballon d’Or runner-up Sadio Mane, the Lions of Tarenga still powered their way to a second-place finish behind the Dutch in Group A after back-to-back victories over Qatar and Ecuador to secure passage to the knockouts for the second time in their history.
Their overall numbers aren’t as strong as England’s, but the West African side still rank in the upper half in most offensive categories under trusted, longtime coach Aliou Cissé, including shots per game (14, tied for 4th) and aerials won (18.3 per game, 3rd).
Beyond the fact that both teams have lion-centric nicknames, there are other statistical similarities that catch the eye.
Both teams have been good on set pieces in Qatar, as each have scored twice from dead ball situations, joint-most in the tournament. Both also have individuals who can beat opponents, as each rank top-six in successful dribbles.
But despite the similarities, there’s one main difference that gives England the edge here.
Defensively, the Three Lions have conceded just twice all tournament, and both of those goals came late in England’s 6-2 Matchday 1 win over Iran. They’ve not always been airtight at the back -- just look at their UEFA Nations League results from this year -- but they’ve done the job so far in Qatar.
Meanwhile, despite fielding Chelsea’s Édouard Mendy in goal and a handful of top-tier defenders, Senegal have yet to keep a clean sheet at this World Cup and have just two shutouts in their last ten games.
That’s worrying when you consider the firepower England have at their disposal. As mentioned above, this English team is averaging three goals per match at this tournament, and that’s without a single tally from 2018 Golden Boot winner Harry Kane -- yet.
Time will tell if football will be coming home this December for the first time since ‘66, but despite a potentially tricky matchup, it’s hard to see the English dream ending at this stage.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections give England a 77.3% chance to advance. If those numbers hold true, it would be the fourth time in the last six World Cups that the Three Lions would reach the quarterfinals.
Call To Action: All of Sengal’s games at this tournament have featured goals, and aside from the 0-0 draw against the USA, so have all of England’s. Even though knockout stage matches are typically cagey, if either side can score early, expect the goals to flow. That makes the over/under of 2.5 goals (+134) or even 3.5 goals (+370) appealing.
France (-1100 to advance) vs. Poland (+660)
Al Thumama Stadium | Doha, Qatar | 10am ETTo put it mildly, reigning world champions France are big, big favorites to move on to the quarterfinal stage at Poland’s expense.
After all, Les Bleus have looked irresistible at this tournament, topping Group D at a canter after averaging 3 goals per match in convincing wins over Australia and Denmark and ranking top six in the field in shots per game (18, 2nd), shots on target per game (5.7, 5th), and pass completion (87.2%, 6th).
Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider 33% of that data is drawn from a meaningless Matchday 3 loss to Tunisia that saw Didier Deschamps make nine changes to their starting XI after having already qualified for the Round of 16.
Their opposition, meanwhile, had to sweat out qualification until the group stage’s final whistle.
After drawing with Mexico, beating Saudi Arabia, and losing to Argentina, Poland only progressed to the knockouts on FIFA’s “fair play” system -- the seventh tiebreaker -- which gave them the nod over El Tri after accruing fewer yellow cards at the tournament.
So now the Eagles find themselves at this stage at a World Cup for the first time since 1986, and while they do feature one of the world's best in Barcelona goal machine and 2021 Ballon d’Or runner-up Robert Lewandowski, they’ve struggled mightily to produce much of anything in the opposition’s end.
Much of that has been due to a territorial disadvantage that they’ve struggled to overcome.
Of the 32 sides taking part in Qatar, Poland have spent the second-most time in their own third and the second-fewest time in the attacking third -- only Costa Rica have posted worse numbers -- and the only two goals they’ve managed at this tournament came late against a Saudi Arabian team ranked 51st in the world.
It’s easy to forget, but had Polish keeper Wojciech Szczęsny not saved two penalties in the group stage, this team would already be back home.
Given how strong this French side is, it’s likely the Juventus man was just delaying the inevitable.
Going Deeper: Somewhat surprisingly, numberFire’s projections have France’s win probability at 53.3%. If Poland can spring the upset, it’d be the first time they’ll have beaten Les Bleus since 1982.
Call To Action: It’s hard to back France straight-up with the odds as such, but Poland have shown little to suggest they’ll offer much resistance. Still, Didier Deschamp’s defense has been far from perfect -- in eleven matches in 2022, they’ve allowed at least one goal in nine of them -- so perhaps taking the French to win but both teams to score (+250) might offer the best value in this potentially lopsided contest.
England (-500 to advance) vs. Senegal (+370)
Al Bayt Stadium | Al Khor, Qatar | 2pm ETThis battle of European runners-up versus reigning African champions could shape up to be one of the more interesting matchups in the Round of 16.
In one corner, there’s an English side who went unbeaten to top Group B, scoring a joint-tournament high nine goals in the process and managing 17 shots on target, third-most in the field.
Gareth Southgate’s team were also efficient in possession in the group stage, connecting on 88.7% of their passes while carving open Iran and Wales and giving off Russia 2018 and Euro 2020 vibes -- two tournaments that saw them reach the semifinals and final, respectively.
In the other corner lies a Senegalese team brimming with confidence after a dramatic AFCON title win one year ago.
Even without injured Ballon d’Or runner-up Sadio Mane, the Lions of Tarenga still powered their way to a second-place finish behind the Dutch in Group A after back-to-back victories over Qatar and Ecuador to secure passage to the knockouts for the second time in their history.
Their overall numbers aren’t as strong as England’s, but the West African side still rank in the upper half in most offensive categories under trusted, longtime coach Aliou Cissé, including shots per game (14, tied for 4th) and aerials won (18.3 per game, 3rd).
Beyond the fact that both teams have lion-centric nicknames, there are other statistical similarities that catch the eye.
Both teams have been good on set pieces in Qatar, as each have scored twice from dead ball situations, joint-most in the tournament. Both also have individuals who can beat opponents, as each rank top-six in successful dribbles.
But despite the similarities, there’s one main difference that gives England the edge here.
Defensively, the Three Lions have conceded just twice all tournament, and both of those goals came late in England’s 6-2 Matchday 1 win over Iran. They’ve not always been airtight at the back -- just look at their UEFA Nations League results from this year -- but they’ve done the job so far in Qatar.
Meanwhile, despite fielding Chelsea’s Édouard Mendy in goal and a handful of top-tier defenders, Senegal have yet to keep a clean sheet at this World Cup and have just two shutouts in their last ten games.
That’s worrying when you consider the firepower England have at their disposal. As mentioned above, this English team is averaging three goals per match at this tournament, and that’s without a single tally from 2018 Golden Boot winner Harry Kane -- yet.
Time will tell if football will be coming home this December for the first time since ‘66, but despite a potentially tricky matchup, it’s hard to see the English dream ending at this stage.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections give England a 77.3% chance to advance. If those numbers hold true, it would be the fourth time in the last six World Cups that the Three Lions would reach the quarterfinals.
Call To Action: All of Sengal’s games at this tournament have featured goals, and aside from the 0-0 draw against the USA, so have all of England’s. Even though knockout stage matches are typically cagey, if either side can score early, expect the goals to flow. That makes the over/under of 2.5 goals (+134) or even 3.5 goals (+370) appealing.
France 3-1 over Poland
golden boot standings
golden boot standings
| Player | Country | Goals |
| Kylian Mbappe | France | 5 |
| Enner Valencia | Ecuador | 3 |
| Cody Gakpo | Netherlands | 3 |
| Alvaro Morata | Spain | 3 |
| Marcus Rashford | England | 3 |
| Lionel Messi | Argentina | 3 |
| Salem Al-Dawsari | Saudi Arabia | 2 |
| Mahedi Taremi | Iran | 2 |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | Serbia | 2 |
| Mohammed Kudus | Ghana | 2 |
| Breel Embolo | Switzerland | 2 |
| Andrej Kramaric | Croatia | 2 |
| Cho Geu-sung | South Korea | 2 |
| Ferran Torres | Spain | 2 |
| Vincent Aboubakar | Cameroon | 2 |
| Ritsu Doan | Japan | 2 |
| Niclas Füllkrug | Germany | 2 |
| Bruno Fernandes | Portugal | 2 |
| Richarlison | Brazil | 2 |
| Olivier Giroud | France | 2 |
| Bukayo Saka | England | 2 |
| Giorgian de Arrascaeta | Uruguay | 2 |
| Kai Havertz | Germany | 2 |
Betting guide for Monday
Day 3 of the 2022 FIFA World Cup knockout stage offers up one even matchup and one lopsided one, but in this tournament of twists and turns, who’s to say Monday’s contests play out the way we think they will?
Read on for more insight on another intriguing Round of 16 matchday in Qatar, plus be sure to check out FanDuel Sportsbook for the latest World Cup odds and more!
Who doesn’t love a surprise, right?
After being matched with former world champions Spain and Germany, hardly any predicted Japan to escape the group stage of this year’s World Cup.
But after a pair of stunning second-half comebacks over those two European heavyweights, the Samurai Blue not only survived and advanced -- they actually topped Group E in the process.
One word: Efficiency.
Hajime Moriyasu’s side had a total of nine shots on goal during the group stage -- a below-average number at this tournament -- but they converted four of them into the goals needed to stun the Germans on Matchday 1 and the Spanish on Matchday 3.
And while the statistics would frame this version of Japan as a pretty average side -- they don’t rank in the top ten in any major statistical category at this tournament and are almost bottom in possession (32.1%, 31st of 32 teams) -- the caliber of their opposition has to be taken into account, as does the fact they’ve already beaten German and Spain in this competition.
And it’s those eye-opening results that should have the attention of their Round of 16 opposition.
2018 World Cup finalists Croatia enter the knockouts unbeaten after earning a dominant 4-1 win over Canada and a pair of 0-0 draws against eventual Group F winners Morocco and a disappointing Belgian side.
Like Japan, the Vatreni haven’t set the analytics world on fire in Qatar, but they’ve consistently shown a big-game nous in this and other recent major tournaments that not many teams have.
That ability to rise to the occasion has been evident all calendar year, as Zlatko Dalic’s charges have lost just once in 2022 and are in the midst of a nine-match unbeaten run that includes a win and draw against France and a pair of victories over Denmark.
So what gives this Monday? Can Japan provide their third stunner in two weeks? Or will this be the start of another deep World Cup run for Croatia?
This one truly feels like a toss-up…so plan accordingly.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections have Croatia’s win probability at 55.9%. If those hold true, Japan would fall to 0-2-1 all-time in World Cup play against this nation of four million on the Adriatic Sea.
Call To Action: Japan have conceded once in every match they’ve played thus far -- and as the Germans posted an xG of 3.1 against them, they easily could’ve let in a few more in the opener -- but the Samurai Blue did have a streak of five consecutive clean sheets entering this World Cup, so don’t assume this team can’t defend. Croatia have been solid defensively, too -- just one goal allowed to this point -- so under 0.5 goals (+710) could sneakily be a possibility.
If the match follows that script, all of the method of victory props are in play, where the options range from safe -- either team to win on penalties is +420 – to the more adventurous, like taking Japan to win in extra time at +1500.
On paper, this shouldn’t be close.
First of all, if you put five-time world champions Brazil against anyone, the odds will likely be in their favor.
After all, they’re still the people’s choice to win this competition (+250) and end a 20-year World Cup drought in the process.
But match them up against an unfancied Korea Republic side that needed a stoppage-time goal on Matchday 3 just to make it this far, and you get the lopsided numbers you see above.
Still, before you sharpie in the Selecao into the quarterfinals, let’s make the case for what would be a World Cup upset for the ages.
Exhibit A: Brazil haven’t been as dominant as expected at this tournament.
Yes, Tite’s side flashed in their 2-0 win over Serbia on Matchday 1, but they couldn’t get out of second gear in their 1-0 win over the Swiss -- in which they required a late goal off a deflection from Casemiro -- and then they fielded a reserve team against Cameroon and promptly lost 1-0.
In short, the most talented team in the field haven’t hit the heights just yet, partly because...
Exhibit B: Brazil are mired in an injury crisis.
Neymar’s ankle injury suffered on Thanksgiving against the Serbs isn’t fully healed, while fellow attacker Gabriel Jesus and defender Alex Telles have both been ruled out for the rest of the tournament.
Brazil are the deepest team in Qatar, but the speed of which a new-look backline -- which might have to feature 39-year-old Dani Alves -- can gel behind an attacking trio that haven’t really played together might determine how far they go.
Exhibit C: While imperfect, South Korea can hurt you, especially in the air.
Results for the Taegeuk Warriors have been all over the map lately -- including in this tournament -- but they found an offensive spark in their wild 3-2 Matchday 2 loss to Ghana that carried over into their 2-1 win against Portugal in their final group stage match.
Paulo Bento’s men rank first in the tournament on aerials won, and they won’t be afraid to fire crosses in to 6-3 target man Cho Gue-sung, who scored twice on towering headers against the Ghanaians.
Brazil’s rank on aerials, by the way? 32 of 32.
Hmm…
Now, in all likelihood, this will be a routine Brazil victory. Beside the offensive flair, they’re so, so much better defensively, having conceded just once while ranking 3rd in shots allowed (6 attempts per game).
But is there a chance Korea do what they did against Portugal -- surrender possession, dig in at the back, and try to score in transition or on a set piece -- and steal a win or at least push it to penalties?
…Probably not. But it’s not completely out of the question.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections give Brazil an 80.7% chance to advance, the second-highest number in the Round of 16.
Call To Action: Brazil beat Korea 5-1 in a friendly in Seoul this June. On one hand, yikes. But on the other, that almost increases the chances Brazil overlook their Round of 16 opposition, right? (How do you say, “Lads, it’s Korea,” in Portuguese?)
Bear in mind there’s a high chance Brazil will score in this match, so if you think Korea can pull this off, don’t expect 0-0 or 1-0 to get it done. A 2-1 win (+4000) for the Koreans is an intriguing option, but you’re probably better off taking them straight up at +790 if you’re a believer in the improbable.
Day 3 of the 2022 FIFA World Cup knockout stage offers up one even matchup and one lopsided one, but in this tournament of twists and turns, who’s to say Monday’s contests play out the way we think they will?
Read on for more insight on another intriguing Round of 16 matchday in Qatar, plus be sure to check out FanDuel Sportsbook for the latest World Cup odds and more!
Japan (+154 to advance) vs. Croatia (-188)
Al Janoub Stadium | Al Wakrah, Qatar | 10am ETWho doesn’t love a surprise, right?
After being matched with former world champions Spain and Germany, hardly any predicted Japan to escape the group stage of this year’s World Cup.
But after a pair of stunning second-half comebacks over those two European heavyweights, the Samurai Blue not only survived and advanced -- they actually topped Group E in the process.
So how did this unheralded side pull it off?
One word: Efficiency.
Hajime Moriyasu’s side had a total of nine shots on goal during the group stage -- a below-average number at this tournament -- but they converted four of them into the goals needed to stun the Germans on Matchday 1 and the Spanish on Matchday 3.
And while the statistics would frame this version of Japan as a pretty average side -- they don’t rank in the top ten in any major statistical category at this tournament and are almost bottom in possession (32.1%, 31st of 32 teams) -- the caliber of their opposition has to be taken into account, as does the fact they’ve already beaten German and Spain in this competition.
And it’s those eye-opening results that should have the attention of their Round of 16 opposition.
2018 World Cup finalists Croatia enter the knockouts unbeaten after earning a dominant 4-1 win over Canada and a pair of 0-0 draws against eventual Group F winners Morocco and a disappointing Belgian side.
Like Japan, the Vatreni haven’t set the analytics world on fire in Qatar, but they’ve consistently shown a big-game nous in this and other recent major tournaments that not many teams have.
That ability to rise to the occasion has been evident all calendar year, as Zlatko Dalic’s charges have lost just once in 2022 and are in the midst of a nine-match unbeaten run that includes a win and draw against France and a pair of victories over Denmark.
So what gives this Monday? Can Japan provide their third stunner in two weeks? Or will this be the start of another deep World Cup run for Croatia?
This one truly feels like a toss-up…so plan accordingly.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections have Croatia’s win probability at 55.9%. If those hold true, Japan would fall to 0-2-1 all-time in World Cup play against this nation of four million on the Adriatic Sea.
Call To Action: Japan have conceded once in every match they’ve played thus far -- and as the Germans posted an xG of 3.1 against them, they easily could’ve let in a few more in the opener -- but the Samurai Blue did have a streak of five consecutive clean sheets entering this World Cup, so don’t assume this team can’t defend. Croatia have been solid defensively, too -- just one goal allowed to this point -- so under 0.5 goals (+710) could sneakily be a possibility.
If the match follows that script, all of the method of victory props are in play, where the options range from safe -- either team to win on penalties is +420 – to the more adventurous, like taking Japan to win in extra time at +1500.
Brazil (-1300 to advance) vs. Korea Republic (+790)
Stadium 974 | Doha, Qatar | 2pm ETOn paper, this shouldn’t be close.
First of all, if you put five-time world champions Brazil against anyone, the odds will likely be in their favor.
After all, they’re still the people’s choice to win this competition (+250) and end a 20-year World Cup drought in the process.
But match them up against an unfancied Korea Republic side that needed a stoppage-time goal on Matchday 3 just to make it this far, and you get the lopsided numbers you see above.
Still, before you sharpie in the Selecao into the quarterfinals, let’s make the case for what would be a World Cup upset for the ages.
Exhibit A: Brazil haven’t been as dominant as expected at this tournament.
Yes, Tite’s side flashed in their 2-0 win over Serbia on Matchday 1, but they couldn’t get out of second gear in their 1-0 win over the Swiss -- in which they required a late goal off a deflection from Casemiro -- and then they fielded a reserve team against Cameroon and promptly lost 1-0.
In short, the most talented team in the field haven’t hit the heights just yet, partly because...
Exhibit B: Brazil are mired in an injury crisis.
Neymar’s ankle injury suffered on Thanksgiving against the Serbs isn’t fully healed, while fellow attacker Gabriel Jesus and defender Alex Telles have both been ruled out for the rest of the tournament.
Brazil are the deepest team in Qatar, but the speed of which a new-look backline -- which might have to feature 39-year-old Dani Alves -- can gel behind an attacking trio that haven’t really played together might determine how far they go.
Exhibit C: While imperfect, South Korea can hurt you, especially in the air.
Results for the Taegeuk Warriors have been all over the map lately -- including in this tournament -- but they found an offensive spark in their wild 3-2 Matchday 2 loss to Ghana that carried over into their 2-1 win against Portugal in their final group stage match.
Paulo Bento’s men rank first in the tournament on aerials won, and they won’t be afraid to fire crosses in to 6-3 target man Cho Gue-sung, who scored twice on towering headers against the Ghanaians.
Brazil’s rank on aerials, by the way? 32 of 32.
Hmm…
Now, in all likelihood, this will be a routine Brazil victory. Beside the offensive flair, they’re so, so much better defensively, having conceded just once while ranking 3rd in shots allowed (6 attempts per game).
But is there a chance Korea do what they did against Portugal -- surrender possession, dig in at the back, and try to score in transition or on a set piece -- and steal a win or at least push it to penalties?
…Probably not. But it’s not completely out of the question.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections give Brazil an 80.7% chance to advance, the second-highest number in the Round of 16.
Call To Action: Brazil beat Korea 5-1 in a friendly in Seoul this June. On one hand, yikes. But on the other, that almost increases the chances Brazil overlook their Round of 16 opposition, right? (How do you say, “Lads, it’s Korea,” in Portuguese?)
Bear in mind there’s a high chance Brazil will score in this match, so if you think Korea can pull this off, don’t expect 0-0 or 1-0 to get it done. A 2-1 win (+4000) for the Koreans is an intriguing option, but you’re probably better off taking them straight up at +790 if you’re a believer in the improbable.
The last day of the Round of 16 in the 2022 FIFA World Cup has potential to be the tightest we’ve seen so far.
Both matchups feature a high-profile team from the Iberian Peninsula against a less-heralded opponent who has punched above their weight in Qatar.
So how should you approach Tuesday’s contests? Read on for the details, plus be sure to check out FanDuel Sportsbook for the latest World Cup odds and more!
For the second World Cup running, Morocco and Spain find themselves pitted against each other on the global game’s biggest stage with everything at stake.
Four years ago in Russia, the two met in the final match of the group stage and played out a memorable 2-2 draw. On that occasion, the Atlas Lions scored what seemed to be the game-winner in the 81st minute, only for Iago Aspas to equalize in stoppage time to secure passage to the knockouts for the Spanish at the North Africans’ expense.
Some things have changed since that match in Kaliningrad -- only Sergio Busquets remains in the picture from La Roja’s starting XI that night, while Morocco have had three different managers take charge in the years since -- but much still remains the same, chiefly the style of how these two countries play.
Just as Spain have done for the last 15 years, this version of Luis Enrique’s side has lapped the field when it comes to keeping the ball.
They’re tops in pass completion percentage (91%), passes completed (nearly 800 per match) and time of possession (77%, a whopping 10 percentage points more than any other side), and while the scoring has dried up a bit since their seven-goal outburst against Costa Rica on Matchday 1, they have at least shown they’re capable of the cutting edge they’ve sometimes lacked.
Morocco, meanwhile, feature much of the same personnel from that group stage meeting in 2018, but this isn’t an aging team by any stretch. In fact, they’re the fifth-youngest in the field, and their two biggest stars -- Chelsea’s Hakim Ziyech and PSG’s Achraf Hakimi -- are very much in their prime.
Both matchups feature a high-profile team from the Iberian Peninsula against a less-heralded opponent who has punched above their weight in Qatar.
So how should you approach Tuesday’s contests? Read on for the details, plus be sure to check out FanDuel Sportsbook for the latest World Cup odds and more!
Morocco (+330 to advance) vs. Spain (-440)
Education City Stadium | Al Rayyan, Qatar | 10am ETFor the second World Cup running, Morocco and Spain find themselves pitted against each other on the global game’s biggest stage with everything at stake.
Four years ago in Russia, the two met in the final match of the group stage and played out a memorable 2-2 draw. On that occasion, the Atlas Lions scored what seemed to be the game-winner in the 81st minute, only for Iago Aspas to equalize in stoppage time to secure passage to the knockouts for the Spanish at the North Africans’ expense.
Some things have changed since that match in Kaliningrad -- only Sergio Busquets remains in the picture from La Roja’s starting XI that night, while Morocco have had three different managers take charge in the years since -- but much still remains the same, chiefly the style of how these two countries play.
Just as Spain have done for the last 15 years, this version of Luis Enrique’s side has lapped the field when it comes to keeping the ball.
They’re tops in pass completion percentage (91%), passes completed (nearly 800 per match) and time of possession (77%, a whopping 10 percentage points more than any other side), and while the scoring has dried up a bit since their seven-goal outburst against Costa Rica on Matchday 1, they have at least shown they’re capable of the cutting edge they’ve sometimes lacked.
Morocco, meanwhile, feature much of the same personnel from that group stage meeting in 2018, but this isn’t an aging team by any stretch. In fact, they’re the fifth-youngest in the field, and their two biggest stars -- Chelsea’s Hakim Ziyech and PSG’s Achraf Hakimi -- are very much in their prime.
Betting guide for Friday
Thanks to a Round of 16 that saw a majority of the favorites advance without fuss, we’re set to be treated to a FIFA Men’s World Cup quarterfinal lineup stacked with heavy hitters and -- more pertinently to this space -- difficult matchups to predict.
The fun starts Friday with two South American titans battling a pair of recent World Cup runners-up from Europe. Read on for the details on how these contests might play out. Also, be sure to check out FanDuel Sportsbook for the latest World Cup odds and more.
Education City Stadium | Doha, Qatar | 10am ET
Contrary to what you just read in the intro about parity at this stage, the first of our four quarterfinals in Qatar offers a substantial discrepancy between favorite and underdog.
If you watched the Round of 16, you know why.
Beyond the fact that Brazil are five-time champions and the oddsmakers' choice to be the last team standing (+175) at this tournament, the Selecao put on an attacking display to remember against South Korea on Monday, scoring four times in the first half before taking their dancing feet off the gas in an eventual 4-1 victory.
Even if the Koreans’ naïveté in their setup played a role in the South Americans’ rampant offensive display, it was still a reminder of what this Brazil side is capable of on their day.
Meanwhile, Croatia never looked likely to get by Japan in their first knockout stage tie, but in a call-back to their run to the final in Russia four years ago, the Vatreni got the game-tying goal they needed in the second half before winning on penalties.
Their 4-1 group stage win over Canada aside, Zlatko Dalić’s charges are rarely stylish, but with just one defeat this calendar year, they continue to get the job done against all comers.
But while Croatia’s 1-0 victory over a full-strength French side earlier this year in the UEFA Nations League should give pause to any who believe this match will be a formality, the timing of it doesn’t help the upset cause of this nation on the Adriatic Sea.
Days after grinding out an advancement-sealing draw over Belgium on Matchday 3, Croatia had to then toil physically and mentally for a full two hours of gametime in their first knockout-round victory.
Luke Modric -- who is 37 years old and the beating heart of this Croatian side -- couldn’t last the full 120 minutes in that contest against Japan, and with just three days of rest between that one and Friday's bout, one wonders how much he and his teammates will have in reserve to face an up-tempo attack.
Brazil, meanwhile, played a second-choice XI in their final group game and had to truly exert themselves for only 45 minutes in the Round of 16, meaning their starters will be as close to 100% as it gets in this condensed winter World Cup.
Beyond the fatigue advantage, though, this Brazil team is on a different level because of their acumen at both ends of the pitch.
While the offense has been strong as expected -- Brazil rank second in total shots (18.8 per match) and shots on target (7.5) and fourth in pass completion (87.9%) --- they’ve been excellent at the back as well, with an impressive average expected goals (xG) allowed of 0.37.
Tite’s bunch has allowed the third-fewest shots per game (6.5) while spending only 23% of gametime in their own third, and when opponents have gotten chances, Liverpool star Alisson has been outstanding at repelling them.
In short, even though Croatia should offer more resistance than most to the Samba Kings, it’s hard to see any result but a Brazil victory at day’s end. Expect the knockout trend of the highly favored to advance to continue in Friday's opening quarterfinal.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections have Brazil’s win probability at 72%. If Brazil win, it would be the 12th time the Selecao have advanced to the semifinals of the World Cup, tying them with Germany for the most trips to the last four of any nation.
Call To Action: At -750 to advance, there’s no advantage to taking Brazil straight up, so you’ll have to get creative to find value, and that means hitting a correct score prediction. Bear in mind that Brazil haven’t played European opposition hardly at all since the last World Cup -- and they’ve never really found their offensive stride in those meetings -- so it would be a surprise if this is a rout. There’s a chance Croatia could frustrate the South Americans -- as Switzerland did in a narrow 1-0 defeat on Matchday 2 -- so a similar single-score game (+550) is possible.
For those who love an upset, there’s this: Brazil famously have been knocked out of the last four World Cups by the first European side they’ve faced in the knockout stages. If it’s to happen a fifth time in a row, it’ll almost surely come via penalties (+2000) after a 0-0 (+1300) or 1-1 (+850) result.
Lusail Stadium | Al Daayen, Qatar | 2pm ET
Oranje v. Albiceleste.
Little else needs to be said.
These two have met at the World Cup five times, most recently in the 2014 semis in Sao Paolo, and most famously in the 1978 final in Buenos Aires.
Both of those matches required extra time, and both ended in Argentinian celebrations.
Many assume Friday’s quarterfinal will end in the same manner, with Lionel Messi and company continuing their inexorable march towards a semifinal date with archrival Brazil. But while the South Americans are favored -- and for good reason – this Dutch side is no pushover.
Long considered the greatest national team not to win a World Cup, the Netherlands have been denied at the final hurdle on three occasions -- 1974, 1978, and 2010.
And while this edition of the Oranje isn’t as star-studded as those teams were, they’ve quietly gone 21 games without defeat and appear to be hitting their stride after a 3-1 dismantling of the United States in the last round.
By the numbers, the Dutch haven’t been a dominant team at this World Cup -- they’re actually bang average in almost every statistical category, a big reason why many liked the Yanks’ chances against them in the Round of 16 -- but what the Netherlands lack in style points, they make up for in big-game experience.
Case in point: Louis Van Gaal’s team is 9-0-3 this calendar year, and all of those matches were against teams who made it to Qatar.
With that said, none of the nations on the Dutch’s 2022 schedule are still in this tournament, and none are nearly as dangerous as Argentina are.
After a stumble to Saudi Arabia on Matchday 1 that ended a 36-match unbeaten streak, Argentina have steadied the ship with controlled, composed performances in a series of must-win matches.
Lionel Scaloni’s men have been good going forward, scoring twice in each of their last three matches while averaging the third-most shots on target (6.3), fourth-most shot attempts (14.3), and second-highest possession (65.3%).
All of that time on the ball has left opponents with minimal opportunity for looks on goal, and that’s reflected in their defensive numbers -- 0.32 xG allowed per match as well as a tournament-low four shot attempts surrendered per match.
Even when factoring in the step-up in caliber of opponent for Argentina, this match should play out much like both team’s Round-of-16 ties, with Argentina controlling the ball against the Dutch -- just like the US did -- and the Netherlands looking to capitalize on their chances in transition -- just like Australia did.
If Friday sees Holland hold together at the back and counter swiftly -- as they did against the Americans -- a reversal of history against their rivals from across the Atlantic could be on the cards.
Still, just as they did eight years ago, the most likely outcome sees Messi's men finding the magic they need to unlock the Dutch defense -- in either normal time or beyond -- to once again continue an la Albiceleste’s run at the Netherlands’ expense.
Going Deeper: Giving the Netherlands a win probability of 43%, numberFire’s projections lean toward the Dutch in this contest in spite of what oddsmakers say. This marks the first time in the knockouts that neither side has a win probability of more than 50%, though it won’t be the last. (For proof, look no further than Saturday’s England v. France quarterfinal.)
Call To Action: Given the defensive nature of both teams -- the Argentines have kept 15 clean sheets in their last 20, while the Dutch have conceded just twice in their last six -- it would be a surprise if this quarterfinal is anything but a tight, low-scoring affair. Add in the history of this matchup, and betting on a 0-0 (+650) or 1-1 (+500) scoreline after 90 minutes isn’t a bad play, though perhaps taking either team in extra time (+500) or on penalties (+410) is the safer route.
Thanks to a Round of 16 that saw a majority of the favorites advance without fuss, we’re set to be treated to a FIFA Men’s World Cup quarterfinal lineup stacked with heavy hitters and -- more pertinently to this space -- difficult matchups to predict.
The fun starts Friday with two South American titans battling a pair of recent World Cup runners-up from Europe. Read on for the details on how these contests might play out. Also, be sure to check out FanDuel Sportsbook for the latest World Cup odds and more.
Croatia (+510 to advance) vs. Brazil (-750)
Education City Stadium | Doha, Qatar | 10am ET
Contrary to what you just read in the intro about parity at this stage, the first of our four quarterfinals in Qatar offers a substantial discrepancy between favorite and underdog.
If you watched the Round of 16, you know why.
Beyond the fact that Brazil are five-time champions and the oddsmakers' choice to be the last team standing (+175) at this tournament, the Selecao put on an attacking display to remember against South Korea on Monday, scoring four times in the first half before taking their dancing feet off the gas in an eventual 4-1 victory.
Even if the Koreans’ naïveté in their setup played a role in the South Americans’ rampant offensive display, it was still a reminder of what this Brazil side is capable of on their day.
Meanwhile, Croatia never looked likely to get by Japan in their first knockout stage tie, but in a call-back to their run to the final in Russia four years ago, the Vatreni got the game-tying goal they needed in the second half before winning on penalties.
Their 4-1 group stage win over Canada aside, Zlatko Dalić’s charges are rarely stylish, but with just one defeat this calendar year, they continue to get the job done against all comers.
But while Croatia’s 1-0 victory over a full-strength French side earlier this year in the UEFA Nations League should give pause to any who believe this match will be a formality, the timing of it doesn’t help the upset cause of this nation on the Adriatic Sea.
Days after grinding out an advancement-sealing draw over Belgium on Matchday 3, Croatia had to then toil physically and mentally for a full two hours of gametime in their first knockout-round victory.
Luke Modric -- who is 37 years old and the beating heart of this Croatian side -- couldn’t last the full 120 minutes in that contest against Japan, and with just three days of rest between that one and Friday's bout, one wonders how much he and his teammates will have in reserve to face an up-tempo attack.
Brazil, meanwhile, played a second-choice XI in their final group game and had to truly exert themselves for only 45 minutes in the Round of 16, meaning their starters will be as close to 100% as it gets in this condensed winter World Cup.
Beyond the fatigue advantage, though, this Brazil team is on a different level because of their acumen at both ends of the pitch.
While the offense has been strong as expected -- Brazil rank second in total shots (18.8 per match) and shots on target (7.5) and fourth in pass completion (87.9%) --- they’ve been excellent at the back as well, with an impressive average expected goals (xG) allowed of 0.37.
Tite’s bunch has allowed the third-fewest shots per game (6.5) while spending only 23% of gametime in their own third, and when opponents have gotten chances, Liverpool star Alisson has been outstanding at repelling them.
In short, even though Croatia should offer more resistance than most to the Samba Kings, it’s hard to see any result but a Brazil victory at day’s end. Expect the knockout trend of the highly favored to advance to continue in Friday's opening quarterfinal.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections have Brazil’s win probability at 72%. If Brazil win, it would be the 12th time the Selecao have advanced to the semifinals of the World Cup, tying them with Germany for the most trips to the last four of any nation.
Call To Action: At -750 to advance, there’s no advantage to taking Brazil straight up, so you’ll have to get creative to find value, and that means hitting a correct score prediction. Bear in mind that Brazil haven’t played European opposition hardly at all since the last World Cup -- and they’ve never really found their offensive stride in those meetings -- so it would be a surprise if this is a rout. There’s a chance Croatia could frustrate the South Americans -- as Switzerland did in a narrow 1-0 defeat on Matchday 2 -- so a similar single-score game (+550) is possible.
For those who love an upset, there’s this: Brazil famously have been knocked out of the last four World Cups by the first European side they’ve faced in the knockout stages. If it’s to happen a fifth time in a row, it’ll almost surely come via penalties (+2000) after a 0-0 (+1300) or 1-1 (+850) result.
Netherlands (+130 to advance) vs. Argentina (-160)
Lusail Stadium | Al Daayen, Qatar | 2pm ET
Oranje v. Albiceleste.
Little else needs to be said.
These two have met at the World Cup five times, most recently in the 2014 semis in Sao Paolo, and most famously in the 1978 final in Buenos Aires.
Both of those matches required extra time, and both ended in Argentinian celebrations.
Many assume Friday’s quarterfinal will end in the same manner, with Lionel Messi and company continuing their inexorable march towards a semifinal date with archrival Brazil. But while the South Americans are favored -- and for good reason – this Dutch side is no pushover.
Long considered the greatest national team not to win a World Cup, the Netherlands have been denied at the final hurdle on three occasions -- 1974, 1978, and 2010.
And while this edition of the Oranje isn’t as star-studded as those teams were, they’ve quietly gone 21 games without defeat and appear to be hitting their stride after a 3-1 dismantling of the United States in the last round.
By the numbers, the Dutch haven’t been a dominant team at this World Cup -- they’re actually bang average in almost every statistical category, a big reason why many liked the Yanks’ chances against them in the Round of 16 -- but what the Netherlands lack in style points, they make up for in big-game experience.
Case in point: Louis Van Gaal’s team is 9-0-3 this calendar year, and all of those matches were against teams who made it to Qatar.
With that said, none of the nations on the Dutch’s 2022 schedule are still in this tournament, and none are nearly as dangerous as Argentina are.
After a stumble to Saudi Arabia on Matchday 1 that ended a 36-match unbeaten streak, Argentina have steadied the ship with controlled, composed performances in a series of must-win matches.
Lionel Scaloni’s men have been good going forward, scoring twice in each of their last three matches while averaging the third-most shots on target (6.3), fourth-most shot attempts (14.3), and second-highest possession (65.3%).
All of that time on the ball has left opponents with minimal opportunity for looks on goal, and that’s reflected in their defensive numbers -- 0.32 xG allowed per match as well as a tournament-low four shot attempts surrendered per match.
Even when factoring in the step-up in caliber of opponent for Argentina, this match should play out much like both team’s Round-of-16 ties, with Argentina controlling the ball against the Dutch -- just like the US did -- and the Netherlands looking to capitalize on their chances in transition -- just like Australia did.
If Friday sees Holland hold together at the back and counter swiftly -- as they did against the Americans -- a reversal of history against their rivals from across the Atlantic could be on the cards.
Still, just as they did eight years ago, the most likely outcome sees Messi's men finding the magic they need to unlock the Dutch defense -- in either normal time or beyond -- to once again continue an la Albiceleste’s run at the Netherlands’ expense.
Going Deeper: Giving the Netherlands a win probability of 43%, numberFire’s projections lean toward the Dutch in this contest in spite of what oddsmakers say. This marks the first time in the knockouts that neither side has a win probability of more than 50%, though it won’t be the last. (For proof, look no further than Saturday’s England v. France quarterfinal.)
Call To Action: Given the defensive nature of both teams -- the Argentines have kept 15 clean sheets in their last 20, while the Dutch have conceded just twice in their last six -- it would be a surprise if this quarterfinal is anything but a tight, low-scoring affair. Add in the history of this matchup, and betting on a 0-0 (+650) or 1-1 (+500) scoreline after 90 minutes isn’t a bad play, though perhaps taking either team in extra time (+500) or on penalties (+410) is the safer route.
Betting Guide for Saturday
Al Thumama Stadium | Doha, Qatar | 10am ET
The question on everyone’s minds: Can the Atlas Lions do it again?
On Tuesday, unheralded Morocco defeated former world champions Spain on penalties to reach the World Cup quarterfinal stage for the first time in their history. And while the on-pitch performance over 120 minutes and PKs was outstanding, the incredible outpouring of joy and emotion from the team and the nation afterward was even better.
Ironically, to extend their stay in Qatar and become the first African side ever to reach the semis, Walid Regragui’s side have to slay another giant from just across the Strait of Gibraltar.
And while a matchup with Portugal wouldn’t have seemed too daunting for much of this tournament, all that changed five days ago, when the 2016 European champions routed Switzerland 6-1 in the Round of 16.
In that contest, the Portuguese looked nothing like the disjointed side that were unconvincing winners of Group H, but instead, they were unshackled, creative and free-flowing. It almost makes you wonder what was holding them back before…
In any case, Morocco may have deprived us of yet another Iberian Derby at a major tournament, but their foray to this stage is a welcome one, as is the sudden emergence of “Fun Portugal,” a version we didn’t know existed until Tuesday night.
Stylistically, these teams match up well. On one hand, Morocco are accustomed to ceding possession, forcing turnovers -- they lead the tournament in tackles per game (23) -- and then countering at pace. On the other, Portugal can play the possession game (58%, seventh-highest), but their preference for a swift, direct attack is more akin to that of France than the side-to-side, death-by-papercut approach of the Spanish.
More than anything, though, this appears to be a battle of immovable object versus suddenly irresistible force.
The Atlas Lions have allowed a single goal in the eight matches since Regragui took charge this August -- and that was a semi-meaningless own goal late in their 2-1 Matchday 3 win over Canada.
Portugal have averaged three goals per match in Qatar, and the six they notched in the last round were the most in a men’s World Cup knockout game since Germany famously put seven past Brazil in the 2014 semis.
If that Portugal show up again, it’s hard to see even the most stubborn of defenses holding them off, especially after this Morocco side left everything on the Education City Stadium pitch just days ago.
So could the underdog Atlas Lions do it again? It’s possible. But this may be one mountain too many for them to conquer.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections have Portugal’s win probability at 84%...the same number that was assigned to Spain earlier this week before the Spain-Morocco encounter. If those projections are correct this time, it would mark Portugal's third trip to the World Cup semis and their first since 2006.
Call To Action: These two played to a narrow 1-0 win for the Portuguese in the World Cup group stage four years ago in Russia, and signs point to the rematch plotting a similar path. Another Moroccan upset would be outstanding -- and their defense certainly gives them a chance -- but it feels as though their final was Tuesday night against the Spanish. Take a Ronaldo-less Portugal to win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 (+175), and applaud the Lions as they exit with heads held high.
Al Bayt Stadium | Al Khor, Qatar | 2pm ET
Oh, FIFA. You always save the best for last.
Of the four quarterfinal matches, none are as finely poised nor as tantalizing as England vs. France.
Beyond the obvious socio-political history between the two nations, this game as a football spectacle offers everything.
Sustained team success, both recent and historical? Check.
World-class players in their prime and up-and-coming talents making their initial mark on the world stage? Check.
Improving performances as the tournament has progressed? Double-check.
These two might play different styles of football -- France employ a more pressure-based game built on speed, while England are typically more measured and geared toward possession -- but the results from each this month have been equally impressive, with both sides winning their respective groups at a canter.
Each side features rare -- and in form -- offensive firepower, as England’s attacking options rival Brazil's for depth, while no team on Earth has a player like Kylian Mbappe, who leads the Golden Boot race with five goals in three starts to this point.
Both nations have scored multiple goals on three occasions in Qatar, with England’s 12 tallies leading the tournament. France are just behind with nine.
Defensively, the Three Lions have yet to allow a “meaningful” goal at this tournament. The only two they’ve let in came very late on Matchday 1 in a 6-2 win over Iran. They've kept three consecutive clean sheets since then.
Meanwhile, the French have been slightly more leaky at the back, but even though they’ve conceded in each of their World Cup matches so far, their average group stage expected goals (xG) allowed per match was 0.5, and they’ve given up fewer shots per match at this tournament (7.8) than the English (8.8) have.
So in an even contest between rivals, what might be the difference?
World Cup history is on England’s side -- they’ve won both previous meetings against the French in the tournament, albeit most recently in 1982 -- but France have been dominant head-to-head lately.
Since 2000, Les Bleus is 4-1-2 versus their rivals across the Channel, and even though they haven’t met in five years, their last match -- a 3-2 French win in a 2017 friendly at the Stade de France -- featured many of the chief protagonists we’ll see Saturday.
On that day, an 18-year-old Mbappe was impossible to slow down. It’s not a stretch to see a similar performance unfold this weekend, this time with the eyes of the world watching.
Going Deeper: Giving England a 45.9% win probability, numberFire’s projections lean toward Gareth Southgate's side to advance. If so, it’d be the second World Cup running and the fourth time overall that the Three Lions got to the semifinals. If France can prevail, they’d become the first defending champion to reach the semis since Brazil in 1998.
Call To Action: As Southgate and Didier Deschamps share the same pragmatic heart -- both would rather defend than attack any day of the week -- it’s natural to assume this will be a low-scoring affair, no matter how great the attacking talent is on each side.
With that said, the French have given up at least one goal in nine of their previous ten matches, and they now face the tournament’s top scorers. Plus, while England have tightened up considerably at the back during this World Cup, they shipped eight in three UEFA Nations League matches before heading to Qatar.
So, while it’s anyone’s guess who advances between these two, it’s a safe assumption that goals will be scored, likely at both ends. Whether you like England or France, grab one to win and both sides to find the back of the net -- +490 England or +410 France -- in the Result and Both Score section, and enjoy what should be one of the tournament’s most engaging contests.
Morocco (+270 to advance) vs. Portugal (-350)
Al Thumama Stadium | Doha, Qatar | 10am ET
The question on everyone’s minds: Can the Atlas Lions do it again?
On Tuesday, unheralded Morocco defeated former world champions Spain on penalties to reach the World Cup quarterfinal stage for the first time in their history. And while the on-pitch performance over 120 minutes and PKs was outstanding, the incredible outpouring of joy and emotion from the team and the nation afterward was even better.
Ironically, to extend their stay in Qatar and become the first African side ever to reach the semis, Walid Regragui’s side have to slay another giant from just across the Strait of Gibraltar.
And while a matchup with Portugal wouldn’t have seemed too daunting for much of this tournament, all that changed five days ago, when the 2016 European champions routed Switzerland 6-1 in the Round of 16.
In that contest, the Portuguese looked nothing like the disjointed side that were unconvincing winners of Group H, but instead, they were unshackled, creative and free-flowing. It almost makes you wonder what was holding them back before…
In any case, Morocco may have deprived us of yet another Iberian Derby at a major tournament, but their foray to this stage is a welcome one, as is the sudden emergence of “Fun Portugal,” a version we didn’t know existed until Tuesday night.
Stylistically, these teams match up well. On one hand, Morocco are accustomed to ceding possession, forcing turnovers -- they lead the tournament in tackles per game (23) -- and then countering at pace. On the other, Portugal can play the possession game (58%, seventh-highest), but their preference for a swift, direct attack is more akin to that of France than the side-to-side, death-by-papercut approach of the Spanish.
More than anything, though, this appears to be a battle of immovable object versus suddenly irresistible force.
The Atlas Lions have allowed a single goal in the eight matches since Regragui took charge this August -- and that was a semi-meaningless own goal late in their 2-1 Matchday 3 win over Canada.
Portugal have averaged three goals per match in Qatar, and the six they notched in the last round were the most in a men’s World Cup knockout game since Germany famously put seven past Brazil in the 2014 semis.
If that Portugal show up again, it’s hard to see even the most stubborn of defenses holding them off, especially after this Morocco side left everything on the Education City Stadium pitch just days ago.
So could the underdog Atlas Lions do it again? It’s possible. But this may be one mountain too many for them to conquer.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections have Portugal’s win probability at 84%...the same number that was assigned to Spain earlier this week before the Spain-Morocco encounter. If those projections are correct this time, it would mark Portugal's third trip to the World Cup semis and their first since 2006.
Call To Action: These two played to a narrow 1-0 win for the Portuguese in the World Cup group stage four years ago in Russia, and signs point to the rematch plotting a similar path. Another Moroccan upset would be outstanding -- and their defense certainly gives them a chance -- but it feels as though their final was Tuesday night against the Spanish. Take a Ronaldo-less Portugal to win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 (+175), and applaud the Lions as they exit with heads held high.
England (+102 to advance) vs. France (-124)
Al Bayt Stadium | Al Khor, Qatar | 2pm ET
Oh, FIFA. You always save the best for last.
Of the four quarterfinal matches, none are as finely poised nor as tantalizing as England vs. France.
Beyond the obvious socio-political history between the two nations, this game as a football spectacle offers everything.
Sustained team success, both recent and historical? Check.
World-class players in their prime and up-and-coming talents making their initial mark on the world stage? Check.
Improving performances as the tournament has progressed? Double-check.
These two might play different styles of football -- France employ a more pressure-based game built on speed, while England are typically more measured and geared toward possession -- but the results from each this month have been equally impressive, with both sides winning their respective groups at a canter.
Each side features rare -- and in form -- offensive firepower, as England’s attacking options rival Brazil's for depth, while no team on Earth has a player like Kylian Mbappe, who leads the Golden Boot race with five goals in three starts to this point.
Both nations have scored multiple goals on three occasions in Qatar, with England’s 12 tallies leading the tournament. France are just behind with nine.
Defensively, the Three Lions have yet to allow a “meaningful” goal at this tournament. The only two they’ve let in came very late on Matchday 1 in a 6-2 win over Iran. They've kept three consecutive clean sheets since then.
Meanwhile, the French have been slightly more leaky at the back, but even though they’ve conceded in each of their World Cup matches so far, their average group stage expected goals (xG) allowed per match was 0.5, and they’ve given up fewer shots per match at this tournament (7.8) than the English (8.8) have.
So in an even contest between rivals, what might be the difference?
World Cup history is on England’s side -- they’ve won both previous meetings against the French in the tournament, albeit most recently in 1982 -- but France have been dominant head-to-head lately.
Since 2000, Les Bleus is 4-1-2 versus their rivals across the Channel, and even though they haven’t met in five years, their last match -- a 3-2 French win in a 2017 friendly at the Stade de France -- featured many of the chief protagonists we’ll see Saturday.
On that day, an 18-year-old Mbappe was impossible to slow down. It’s not a stretch to see a similar performance unfold this weekend, this time with the eyes of the world watching.
Going Deeper: Giving England a 45.9% win probability, numberFire’s projections lean toward Gareth Southgate's side to advance. If so, it’d be the second World Cup running and the fourth time overall that the Three Lions got to the semifinals. If France can prevail, they’d become the first defending champion to reach the semis since Brazil in 1998.
Call To Action: As Southgate and Didier Deschamps share the same pragmatic heart -- both would rather defend than attack any day of the week -- it’s natural to assume this will be a low-scoring affair, no matter how great the attacking talent is on each side.
With that said, the French have given up at least one goal in nine of their previous ten matches, and they now face the tournament’s top scorers. Plus, while England have tightened up considerably at the back during this World Cup, they shipped eight in three UEFA Nations League matches before heading to Qatar.
So, while it’s anyone’s guess who advances between these two, it’s a safe assumption that goals will be scored, likely at both ends. Whether you like England or France, grab one to win and both sides to find the back of the net -- +490 England or +410 France -- in the Result and Both Score section, and enjoy what should be one of the tournament’s most engaging contests.
Men's FIFA 2022 World Cup Schedule & Scores | FOX Sports
View scores & schedule for the Men's FIFA World Cup 2022 at FOX Sports. Dates, times, tv network, team matchups, odds and more.
www.foxsports.com
pretty informative
