She was in the quad-cities visiting friends & she was in a bar in downtown Davenport one night with them
& I seen her & was dying to talk to her so I figured " what the hell " ..... all she could do was tell me NO I'm not interested or just walk away .
She did neither , we ended up talking & hanging out & hung out a little bit while she was in town .
She ended up going back home to France ..... She was from Perouges ( a French medieval village )
Betting guide for Wed 11/23
Adjusting for opponent strength, however, Morocco is still sitting at a +2.23 in adjusted goal differential. It's one thing to play weak opponents, but Morocco didn't let any of them linger and won each game by at least two goals.
They’re far from favorites but -- at +25000 -- they are not a complete afterthought in the betting markets. Morocco holds +200 odds to advance from Group F, besting Canada (+280) and trailing Croatia (-270) and Belgium (-550).
Croatia held a +17 goal differential over 10 qualifying matches (W7-L1-D2) while scoring 21 goals and letting up just 4. Adjusting for opponents, I have them at a +1.56, actually, but they are entering off the back of a W4-L1-D1 stint during the UEFA Nations League.
The only preferred pick here by numberFire's model is the Croatia moneyline (+110), which is a four-star play. The algorithm here has their win odds at 65.6%.
We can also justify the over (2.5 goals) at +142 odds; my model has the expected odds there at +110.
Group E features two heavy favorites -- Germany (-750 to advance) and Spain (-950). Japan (+300) and Costa Rica (+1100) will need some World Cup magic to advance.
Japan went 8-0-0 in qualifying with a 46-2 goal differential. Accounting for opponents, their adjusted goal differential is +2.42 in my model. (Germany's was a +2.85 through qualifying.)
In recent friendlies, Japan beat Paraguay (4-1) and the United States (2-0) and played Brazil to a 1-0 loss. They also tied with Ecuador. On the 17th, they played Canada and lost 2-1.
numberFire's model likes Germany's moneyline (-230) and for them to cover (-1.0 at +120 odds).
Spain outscored opponents 15-5 over eight qualifying matches (W6-L1-D1 overall) with an adjusted goal differential of "just" +1.66. In the UEFA Nations League, they were 3-1-2 between June and September.
Over 16 qualifying-round matches, friendlies, and UEFA Nations League matches, Spain has scored more than two goals in just three of them. They scored twice in five, and they scored once in the remaining eight. They allowed two goals three times, one goal five times, and zero goals in eight.
Costa Rica qualified through the CONCACAF-OFC playoff by beating New Zealand 1-0. They recorded multiple goals in just four qualifying-round matches.
With Spain so heavily favored in this match (-700), there's not too much to like. But the best play here is rating out as under 2.5 goals (+124).
I also have Costa Rica's odds of going scoreless at -250, in line with their actual odds, so they're a big factor pushing us toward the under. numberFire's model also has the under (2.5) as a five-star play.
Belgium went W6-L0-D2 in UEFA section qualifying, led by five goals from Romelu Lukaku, who won't dress for this match.
Adjusting each side's qualifying matches for opponent strength, I have Belgium fourth-best in the World Cup (+2.80) and Canada (+2.38) ranked seventh on the back of a pretty dominant W8-L2-D4 performance in the third round of CONCACAF qualifying.
numberFire's model does think that Belgium can cover a 1.0-goal spread (+145), but the best play is the over (2.5 goals), which is listed at -136. I have those odds at -155.
Croatia (12) vs. Morocco (22)
Morocco tore through CAF qualifying by going 6-0-0 and scoring 20 goals and letting up just one, though my data does have them with the weakest average opponent during qualifying of any team in the World Cup.Adjusting for opponent strength, however, Morocco is still sitting at a +2.23 in adjusted goal differential. It's one thing to play weak opponents, but Morocco didn't let any of them linger and won each game by at least two goals.
They’re far from favorites but -- at +25000 -- they are not a complete afterthought in the betting markets. Morocco holds +200 odds to advance from Group F, besting Canada (+280) and trailing Croatia (-270) and Belgium (-550).
Croatia held a +17 goal differential over 10 qualifying matches (W7-L1-D2) while scoring 21 goals and letting up just 4. Adjusting for opponents, I have them at a +1.56, actually, but they are entering off the back of a W4-L1-D1 stint during the UEFA Nations League.
The only preferred pick here by numberFire's model is the Croatia moneyline (+110), which is a four-star play. The algorithm here has their win odds at 65.6%.
We can also justify the over (2.5 goals) at +142 odds; my model has the expected odds there at +110.
Japan (24) vs. Germany (11)
As expected, Germany dominated qualifying (W9-L1-D0) with a 36-4 total goal differential. Their lone loss, 2-1 to North Macedonia, came back in March 2021. They avenged that loss with a 4-0 win over North Macedonia in October 2021.Group E features two heavy favorites -- Germany (-750 to advance) and Spain (-950). Japan (+300) and Costa Rica (+1100) will need some World Cup magic to advance.
Japan went 8-0-0 in qualifying with a 46-2 goal differential. Accounting for opponents, their adjusted goal differential is +2.42 in my model. (Germany's was a +2.85 through qualifying.)
In recent friendlies, Japan beat Paraguay (4-1) and the United States (2-0) and played Brazil to a 1-0 loss. They also tied with Ecuador. On the 17th, they played Canada and lost 2-1.
numberFire's model likes Germany's moneyline (-230) and for them to cover (-1.0 at +120 odds).
Costa Rica (31) vs. Spain (7)
Spain is favored heavily (-700) against Costa Rica, a substantial spread for one of the World Cup favorites (+850 championship odds).Spain outscored opponents 15-5 over eight qualifying matches (W6-L1-D1 overall) with an adjusted goal differential of "just" +1.66. In the UEFA Nations League, they were 3-1-2 between June and September.
Over 16 qualifying-round matches, friendlies, and UEFA Nations League matches, Spain has scored more than two goals in just three of them. They scored twice in five, and they scored once in the remaining eight. They allowed two goals three times, one goal five times, and zero goals in eight.
Costa Rica qualified through the CONCACAF-OFC playoff by beating New Zealand 1-0. They recorded multiple goals in just four qualifying-round matches.
With Spain so heavily favored in this match (-700), there's not too much to like. But the best play here is rating out as under 2.5 goals (+124).
I also have Costa Rica's odds of going scoreless at -250, in line with their actual odds, so they're a big factor pushing us toward the under. numberFire's model also has the under (2.5) as a five-star play.
Canada (41) vs. Belgium (2)
Our model loves Belgium and ranks them fifth entering the World Cup. Canada is 25th. Those ranks, though, are better than the FIFA World Rankings.Belgium went W6-L0-D2 in UEFA section qualifying, led by five goals from Romelu Lukaku, who won't dress for this match.
Adjusting each side's qualifying matches for opponent strength, I have Belgium fourth-best in the World Cup (+2.80) and Canada (+2.38) ranked seventh on the back of a pretty dominant W8-L2-D4 performance in the third round of CONCACAF qualifying.
numberFire's model does think that Belgium can cover a 1.0-goal spread (+145), but the best play is the over (2.5 goals), which is listed at -136. I have those odds at -155.
3 talking points from United States' feisty stalemate with Wales
Agence France-Presse2d ago
DeFodi Images / Getty
Al-Rayyan, Qatar, Nov 21, 2022 (AFP) - Gareth Bale popped up with a late equaliser from the spot as Wales snatched a 1-1 draw against the United States on Monday in their first World Cup match since 1958.
AFP Sport looks at three talking points from the Group B contest:
Bale delivers latest rescue act
A five-time Champions League winner and the driving force of Wales' successful qualifying campaign, Bale has a knack of rising to the big occasion. But at 33, slowed by recent injuries and lacking match sharpness, Bale's first World Cup appearance was looking like one to forget after a quiet first 80 minutes for the former Real Madrid star. Barely two weeks ago, Bale's stoppage-time heroics helped Los Angeles FC win the MLS Cup, and he once more rode to the rescue for Wales in his first start for club or country since September 25. Bale was fouled by Walker Zimmerman inside the area and drilled the resulting penalty past Matt Turner to salvage a point. In the twilight of his glittering career, Wales will need to see more of Bale's magic of old if they are to avoid a group-stage exit on their return to the World Cup after a 64-year wait.Weah seizes chance father never had
George Weah was one of Africa's greatest players -- and the continent's only Ballon d'Or winner in 1995 -- but was never able to guide Liberia to the World Cup. As a 10-year-old, Tim Weah accompanied his father, now the president of Liberia, to the 2010 World Cup final. Twelve years on, the Brooklyn-born Weah junior struck the opening goal for the USA on his World Cup debut. Weah, who plays for Lille in France's Ligue 1, raced onto a through ball from Christian Pulisic, flicking beyond Wayne Hennessey with a finish befitting his father in his prime.Room to grow for USA youngsters
With an average age of just under 25, the USA have the youngest squad at the World Cup. Gregg Berhalter's side dominated the first half, overrunning a Wales midfield weakened by the absence of an injured Joe Allen. Yunus Musah, who only turns 20 next week, in particular caught the eye with a series of bursts through the centre of the park. Rob Page's decision to introduce the towering Kieffer Moore at half-time gave the Welsh a presence in attack sorely lacking until that point. But had it not been for Zimmerman's rash intervention, it would have been a triumph for youth over experience.
What time does does this one start nutty buddy?Spain to win against Costa Rica.
Wow what a blowout
Betting guide for Thursday
Switzerland went W5-L0-D3 in the first round of UEFA qualifying, namely including 0-0 and 1-1 draws against Italy. Accounting for opponents, they emerged from qualifying with an adjusted goal differential of +1.91, ranking them 13th among World Cup teams during the qualifying stages.
Cameroon had a single defeat in qualifying (W5-L1-D0) with an overall goal differential of +9. Accounting for opponents, they remain at a +1.13, ranking them 28th among 32 World Cup teams. They were also 0-2-2 in four friendlies after the Africa Cup of Nations group stage.
numberFire's algorithm prefers the Switzerland moneyline (-135) as well as the under at 2.5 (-156). numberFire's model has the under as 66.1% likely.
The favored side, Uruguay, went just 8-6-4 in CONMEBOL qualifying for a goal differential of 0. They allowed 22 goals and let up just as many. But if we adjust for opponents, their mark works out to a +1.27 per match, and I have Uruguay with the second-toughest qualifying schedule -- of any World Cup side -- by the average opponent strength.
South Korea scored 22 goals and allowed just one in six qualifying matches in the first round and then outscored opponents 13-3 in 10 third-round matches. Their adjusted goal differential is +1.26. By that measure, it's very close. We'll need to keep an eye on the status of Son Heung-min, South Korea's star man, who is day-to-day with an eye injury.
As in the prior game, numberFire's model leans on the favorite (Uruguay at -140) as a three-star play. It also likes the under (2.5 at -160).
The FIFA World Rankings show a substantial gap between the two, and Ghana does rank as the worst team by adjusted goal differential in my model of all 32 World Cup teams (+0.24). Portugal (+1.67) is -- understandably -- a much stronger side. They are, though, without Diogo Jota.
Accounting for injuries, my model thinks there are 2.3 total goals with the under being 59.5% likely (i.e. -150 or so). The under at 2.5 is actually listed at -116, so that seems like a primary play in this match.
The Portugal moneyline (-270) is a bit steep but not the worst bet by any means.
Serbia is a decent team (+7500 to win the World Cup) but is overmatched in this one.
Brazil's win odds are -220 with Serbia's at +600. Draw odds are +340.
I have Brazil with a dominant adjusted goal differential of +3.24, easily tops in the World Cup. Serbia (+1.25) is 25th.
In this matchup, it's the Brazil spread that's appealing. numberFire's model thinks this one plays out to 1.87 to 0.74 over the long term and views Brazil -1.0 (+135) as the best play of the match.
Switzerland (15) vs. Cameroon (43)
In this matchup, we see Switzerland as a -135 favorite over Cameroon (+440). Draw odds are +250.Switzerland went W5-L0-D3 in the first round of UEFA qualifying, namely including 0-0 and 1-1 draws against Italy. Accounting for opponents, they emerged from qualifying with an adjusted goal differential of +1.91, ranking them 13th among World Cup teams during the qualifying stages.
Cameroon had a single defeat in qualifying (W5-L1-D0) with an overall goal differential of +9. Accounting for opponents, they remain at a +1.13, ranking them 28th among 32 World Cup teams. They were also 0-2-2 in four friendlies after the Africa Cup of Nations group stage.
numberFire's algorithm prefers the Switzerland moneyline (-135) as well as the under at 2.5 (-156). numberFire's model has the under as 66.1% likely.
Uruguay (14) vs. South Korea (28)
Here's another similar matchup: Uruguay is -140 to win; South Korea is +440, and draw odds are +250.The favored side, Uruguay, went just 8-6-4 in CONMEBOL qualifying for a goal differential of 0. They allowed 22 goals and let up just as many. But if we adjust for opponents, their mark works out to a +1.27 per match, and I have Uruguay with the second-toughest qualifying schedule -- of any World Cup side -- by the average opponent strength.
South Korea scored 22 goals and allowed just one in six qualifying matches in the first round and then outscored opponents 13-3 in 10 third-round matches. Their adjusted goal differential is +1.26. By that measure, it's very close. We'll need to keep an eye on the status of Son Heung-min, South Korea's star man, who is day-to-day with an eye injury.
As in the prior game, numberFire's model leans on the favorite (Uruguay at -140) as a three-star play. It also likes the under (2.5 at -160).
Portugal (9) vs. Ghana (61)
This one is much more lopsided with Portugal a -270 favorite. Ghana's win odds are +750.The FIFA World Rankings show a substantial gap between the two, and Ghana does rank as the worst team by adjusted goal differential in my model of all 32 World Cup teams (+0.24). Portugal (+1.67) is -- understandably -- a much stronger side. They are, though, without Diogo Jota.
Accounting for injuries, my model thinks there are 2.3 total goals with the under being 59.5% likely (i.e. -150 or so). The under at 2.5 is actually listed at -116, so that seems like a primary play in this match.
The Portugal moneyline (-270) is a bit steep but not the worst bet by any means.
Brazil (1) vs. Serbia (21)
We'll finally get to see the World Cup favorite, Brazil, in action on Thursday. Brazil is +280 to win the World Cup, and no other team is shorter than +600.Serbia is a decent team (+7500 to win the World Cup) but is overmatched in this one.
Brazil's win odds are -220 with Serbia's at +600. Draw odds are +340.
I have Brazil with a dominant adjusted goal differential of +3.24, easily tops in the World Cup. Serbia (+1.25) is 25th.
In this matchup, it's the Brazil spread that's appealing. numberFire's model thinks this one plays out to 1.87 to 0.74 over the long term and views Brazil -1.0 (+135) as the best play of the match.
Betting Guide for Friday the 25th
In the opening match for Wales, they played to a 1-1 draw against the United States, but the expected goal data suggested they were the better side. The expected score tally was 1.5 to 0.8 in favor of Wales.
As for Iran, they also played better than the final score suggested. In their opener, England got the better of them with a 6-2 score, but the expected score was 2.1-1.4 in England's favor.
Wales ranks 19th in the FIFA world rankings; Iran is 20th, so that measure has them close. My adjusted goal data from relevant qualifying rounds shows a gap that favors Iran (+1.97) to Wales (+1.40).
That -- plus the numberFire model -- points to Iran +1.0 (-140). numberFire's algorithm thinks that's a five-star (i.e. five-unit) play.
Qatar was overmatched in their opener and fell 2-0 to Ecuador with an expected goal output of just 0.3 on their end. Ecuador had an expected goal tally of 1.2. Qatar, though, entered the World Cup with the second-worst adjusted goal differential from qualifying.
Senegal fell 2-0 to the Netherlands despite an expected score of 0.9 to 0.7 in their favor. Senegal, 18th in the FIFA World Cup rankings, must navigate this matchup without star Sadio Mané yet again, but the data here suggests they can do it.
My model has the draw odds the exact same as the listed draw odds (+270) and thinks Senegal themselves are overvalued at -165 to win.
The preferred route is for this one to stay under 2.5 goals (-154). My model has those odds at -170.
As we can piece together by now from previewing the other matches so far, the 2-0 wins by both the Netherlands and Ecuador -- despite expected goal differentials of -0.2 and 0.9, respectively -- were somewhat misleading results.
There's a big gap between the two in terms of FIFA ranking (the Netherlands is 8th and Ecuador is 44th), but Ecuador played really tough competition in qualifying and has an adjusted goal differential from those matches (+1.80) not too far off from the Netherlands' (+2.02).
In spite of that, numberFire's model is trusting the long-term skill gap between the two and thinks the Netherlands moneyline (-125) is the way to go.
Fresh off of a 6-2 romp over Iran (albeit with an expected score of 2.1 to 1.4), England are up against a United States team that could be pressed for a win after a 1-1 draw with Wales in their opener.
The United States has a 51.4% probability to advance to the Round of 16, per our model, with England's chances sitting at 95.7%.
At -175 odds, it's hard to be totally enamored with the England moneyline, yet that's how numberFire's model leans (it's a two-star play).
A low-scoring affair makes sense unless the US gets out over their skis to press for a win. The data suggests the under (2.5) should be around -120 odds but is bettable at -104.
Wales (+105) vs. Iran (+300)
Draw odds: +210In the opening match for Wales, they played to a 1-1 draw against the United States, but the expected goal data suggested they were the better side. The expected score tally was 1.5 to 0.8 in favor of Wales.
As for Iran, they also played better than the final score suggested. In their opener, England got the better of them with a 6-2 score, but the expected score was 2.1-1.4 in England's favor.
Wales ranks 19th in the FIFA world rankings; Iran is 20th, so that measure has them close. My adjusted goal data from relevant qualifying rounds shows a gap that favors Iran (+1.97) to Wales (+1.40).
That -- plus the numberFire model -- points to Iran +1.0 (-140). numberFire's algorithm thinks that's a five-star (i.e. five-unit) play.
Qatar (+500) vs. Senegal (-165)
Draw odds: +270Qatar was overmatched in their opener and fell 2-0 to Ecuador with an expected goal output of just 0.3 on their end. Ecuador had an expected goal tally of 1.2. Qatar, though, entered the World Cup with the second-worst adjusted goal differential from qualifying.
Senegal fell 2-0 to the Netherlands despite an expected score of 0.9 to 0.7 in their favor. Senegal, 18th in the FIFA World Cup rankings, must navigate this matchup without star Sadio Mané yet again, but the data here suggests they can do it.
My model has the draw odds the exact same as the listed draw odds (+270) and thinks Senegal themselves are overvalued at -165 to win.
The preferred route is for this one to stay under 2.5 goals (-154). My model has those odds at -170.
Netherlands (-125) vs. Ecuador (+370)
Draw odds: +250As we can piece together by now from previewing the other matches so far, the 2-0 wins by both the Netherlands and Ecuador -- despite expected goal differentials of -0.2 and 0.9, respectively -- were somewhat misleading results.
There's a big gap between the two in terms of FIFA ranking (the Netherlands is 8th and Ecuador is 44th), but Ecuador played really tough competition in qualifying and has an adjusted goal differential from those matches (+1.80) not too far off from the Netherlands' (+2.02).
In spite of that, numberFire's model is trusting the long-term skill gap between the two and thinks the Netherlands moneyline (-125) is the way to go.
England (-175) vs. United States (+490)
Draw odds: +220Fresh off of a 6-2 romp over Iran (albeit with an expected score of 2.1 to 1.4), England are up against a United States team that could be pressed for a win after a 1-1 draw with Wales in their opener.
The United States has a 51.4% probability to advance to the Round of 16, per our model, with England's chances sitting at 95.7%.
At -175 odds, it's hard to be totally enamored with the England moneyline, yet that's how numberFire's model leans (it's a two-star play).
A low-scoring affair makes sense unless the US gets out over their skis to press for a win. The data suggests the under (2.5) should be around -120 odds but is bettable at -104.
