2022 World Cup in Qatar........MASTER THREAD

[MAGAking1]

Betting Guide for Monday 11/21

We all know that the World Cup doesn’t come around every year, and that can make for some difficult projecting.
Team qualifying samples are small, injuries are crucial, and opponent adjustments must be made before projecting out World Cup matches.
Thankfully, we have ways to do that, and numberFire’s World Cup betting model offers up game-specific projections for each stage of the World Cup.
All World Cup odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Here are the best bets for World Cup action on Monday, November 21st.
(Note: all records are listed in win-loss-draw format rather than win-draw-loss; FIFA world rankings are in parenthesis.)

Iran (20) vs. England (5)​

England enters the World Cup ranked third in numberFire’s power rankings. Iran is 30th.
The World Cup futures odds at FanDuel Sportsbook put England in the top five to win it all (+800) with Iran tied for last (+55000).
Across relevant qualifying matches, Iran maintained an opponent-adjusted goal differential of +1.9, but England checked in at a +3.1, according to my data. England finished UEFA qualifying sporting an undefeated 8-0-2 record.
Iran scored double-digit goals (14 and 10) in two games against Cambodia (177th in the world). Naturally, adjustments need to be made for those results.
With England a heavy -310 on the moneyline, it’s hard to back that with much expected value.
The preferred route is England -1.0 (+110).
numberFire's model also likes this game to go over 2.5 total goals (+130).

Netherlands (8) vs. Senegal (18)​

A legitimate contender, the Netherlands (+1400 to win the World Cup) will meet with a mid-tier opponent, Senegal (+12000), in each side’s opener.
Senegal, though, will be without star player Sadio Mane, so this one projects to be much more one-sided than it would have otherwise.
numberFire’s model views a substantial gap between the two and projects a 2.02 to 0.69 win for the Netherlands.
The model likes the Netherlands moneyline (-180) and for them to cover (-1.0 at +170).

Wales (19) vs. United States (16)​

Both the United States' and Wales' championship odds are +15000, putting them in the middle of the pack for the World Cup. The United States does have slightly higher odds to advance from Group B (-105) than does Wales (+105).
The United States ended qualifying with an opponent-adjusted goal differential of +1.6, according to my data.
Wales qualified for the World Cup for the first time since 1958, earning a +1.4 adjusted goal differential in the process.
This Group B matchup features a +195 draw line, and the United States is +150 to win.
numberFire’s model projects a final score of 1.05 to 0.80 in favor of the United States, which makes Wales +1.0 (even at -210 odds) a five-star suggestion.
This game should be considered around 42.6% likely to stay under 1.5 goals, making that bet a target, as well (under 1.5 goals is +154 but should be around +135).




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[phelps123]

Take Ecuador -0.5 vs Qatar.

 

[phelps123]

Ecuador 2-0 WINNER!

 

[phelps123]

Take England vs Iran 1st Half Over 0.5 AND Full Game Over 1.5 Parlay.
Take Senegal vs Netherlands Over 2.5.

 

[peanuts]

Take Ecuador -0.5 vs Qatar.

What a great win. I'm happy Qatar lose.

Take England vs Iran 1st Half Over 0.5 AND Full Game Over 1.5 Parlay.
Take Senegal vs Netherlands Over 2.5.

I am tailing for this one.

 

[MAGAking1]

Betting Guide for Tue 11/22

Saudi Arabia (51) vs. Argentina (3)​

One of the biggest mismatches in the opening days of the World Cup, Argentina is a -650 favorite over Saudi Arabia (+1600). Draw odds are +650.

The odds for Saudi Arabia not to score at all are -210 (67.7%). numberFire projects Saudi Arabia for only 0.36 goals. My model thinks that’s fair and considers their shutout odds to be -234.

Lionel Messi may not be 100% to start the World Cup due to an inflamed Achilles tendon, yet Argentina may not need him to be in full form in such a lopsided matchup.

Given the unlikely probability of even a single Saudi Arabia goal and Messi’s injury, we can consider under 2.5 goals (+120). numberFire’s model likes that as a five-star play out of five. My model thinks the under is 61.2% likely, as well, solely due to the issues for Saudi Arabia's scoring potential.

Tunisia (30) vs. Denmark (10)​

At +3200, Denmark ranks tied for 10th in win odds for the World Cup crown. Tunisia (+55000) is tied for last.

Denmark’s odds to advance from Group D are pretty heavy at -450, and that’s because both Tunisia (+470 to advance) and Australia (+500) join them with France (-1350).

Tunisia ended World Cup qualifying with an adjusted goal differential (per my data) of -0.08, ranking them 26th among 32 World Cup teams.

Denmark finished qualifying by allowing only 3 goals and scoring 30 of their own. Keeper Kasper Schmeichel recorded eight clean sheets in those 10 games. Notably, Denmark defeated France 2-1 in June and 2-0 in September in the UEFA Nations League.

My data shows an adjusted goal differential of +1.17 for Tunisia in qualifying with Denmark at a +2.47.

numberFire's preferred route here is Denmark's moneyline (-190), as they are 75.6% likely to win. The algorithm also likes under 2.5 goals (which we have as 69.3% likely).

Poland (26) vs. Mexico (13)​

A tight opening game awaits between Poland and Mexico. Mexico is +165 to win, Poland is +190, and a draw is +200. Each team is +15000 to win the World Cup.

Poland finished the first round of UEFA qualifying 6-2-2 with a +19 goal differential (30 goals for and 11 allowed) -- but with wins over Andorra (151st in the FIFA ranks), Albania (66th), and San Marino (211th) twice each -- handily, at least. Their average goal differential of +1.91 across all qualifying should read more like a +1.73 when adjusted for opponent.

Although Mexico's raw goal differential in qualifying (+0.64) seems low, adjusting for one of the tougher qualifying schedules, their truer rate is +1.41. That's still not elite relative to other squads and actually is worse than Poland's.

numberFire's model has Poland as a slight favorite (50.2%), so Poland +1.0 (-230) and Poland's moneyline (+190) are five- and three-star plays, respectively.

Australia (38) vs. France (4)​

France (+800) trails just Brazil (+300) and Argentina (+550) in title odds -- and is tied with Spain (+800) for third.

Australia, meanwhile, is +55000, which is tied for last.

France is dealing with a lot of notable injuries: N’Golo Kanté and Paul Pogba were known injuries, but Karim Benzema, Presnel Kempembe and Christopher Nkunku are recent additions to their lengthy injury list.

France didn’t lose across their eight qualifying matches (W5-L0-D3) and allowed just 3 goals in those matches (while scoring 18). In the UEFA Nations League, they were just W1-3L-D2.

For Australia to qualify, it took penalties – and some dancing by keeper Andrew Redmayne – in the AFC-CONMEBOL playoff to qualify for the World Cup despite an 8-0-0 record in qualifying second-round matches with a goal difference of 28 to 2. In the third round, they were just 4-3-3.

Australia's adjusted goal differential (+1.29) doesn't stack up with France's (+2.34), and even with injuries, France can overcome.

However, there isn't a lot of value in this match. numberFire views France as 79.1% likely to win, so the heavy France moneyline (-370) is just a one-star lean.

There's also a one-star suggestion on the over (at 2.5 goals), which my model has as 53.7% likely; numberFire's probability for 3 or more goals is 56.5%.

 

[phelps123]

Betting Guide for Tue 11/22

Saudi Arabia (51) vs. Argentina (3)​

One of the biggest mismatches in the opening days of the World Cup, Argentina is a -650 favorite over Saudi Arabia (+1600). Draw odds are +650.

The odds for Saudi Arabia not to score at all are -210 (67.7%). numberFire projects Saudi Arabia for only 0.36 goals. My model thinks that’s fair and considers their shutout odds to be -234.

Lionel Messi may not be 100% to start the World Cup due to an inflamed Achilles tendon, yet Argentina may not need him to be in full form in such a lopsided matchup.

Given the unlikely probability of even a single Saudi Arabia goal and Messi’s injury, we can consider under 2.5 goals (+120). numberFire’s model likes that as a five-star play out of five. My model thinks the under is 61.2% likely, as well, solely due to the issues for Saudi Arabia's scoring potential.

Tunisia (30) vs. Denmark (10)​

At +3200, Denmark ranks tied for 10th in win odds for the World Cup crown. Tunisia (+55000) is tied for last.

Denmark’s odds to advance from Group D are pretty heavy at -450, and that’s because both Tunisia (+470 to advance) and Australia (+500) join them with France (-1350).

Tunisia ended World Cup qualifying with an adjusted goal differential (per my data) of -0.08, ranking them 26th among 32 World Cup teams.

Denmark finished qualifying by allowing only 3 goals and scoring 30 of their own. Keeper Kasper Schmeichel recorded eight clean sheets in those 10 games. Notably, Denmark defeated France 2-1 in June and 2-0 in September in the UEFA Nations League.

My data shows an adjusted goal differential of +1.17 for Tunisia in qualifying with Denmark at a +2.47.

numberFire's preferred route here is Denmark's moneyline (-190), as they are 75.6% likely to win. The algorithm also likes under 2.5 goals (which we have as 69.3% likely).

Poland (26) vs. Mexico (13)​

A tight opening game awaits between Poland and Mexico. Mexico is +165 to win, Poland is +190, and a draw is +200. Each team is +15000 to win the World Cup.

Poland finished the first round of UEFA qualifying 6-2-2 with a +19 goal differential (30 goals for and 11 allowed) -- but with wins over Andorra (151st in the FIFA ranks), Albania (66th), and San Marino (211th) twice each -- handily, at least. Their average goal differential of +1.91 across all qualifying should read more like a +1.73 when adjusted for opponent.

Although Mexico's raw goal differential in qualifying (+0.64) seems low, adjusting for one of the tougher qualifying schedules, their truer rate is +1.41. That's still not elite relative to other squads and actually is worse than Poland's.

numberFire's model has Poland as a slight favorite (50.2%), so Poland +1.0 (-230) and Poland's moneyline (+190) are five- and three-star plays, respectively.

Australia (38) vs. France (4)​

France (+800) trails just Brazil (+300) and Argentina (+550) in title odds -- and is tied with Spain (+800) for third.

Australia, meanwhile, is +55000, which is tied for last.

France is dealing with a lot of notable injuries: N’Golo Kanté and Paul Pogba were known injuries, but Karim Benzema, Presnel Kempembe and Christopher Nkunku are recent additions to their lengthy injury list.

France didn’t lose across their eight qualifying matches (W5-L0-D3) and allowed just 3 goals in those matches (while scoring 18). In the UEFA Nations League, they were just W1-3L-D2.

For Australia to qualify, it took penalties – and some dancing by keeper Andrew Redmayne – in the AFC-CONMEBOL playoff to qualify for the World Cup despite an 8-0-0 record in qualifying second-round matches with a goal difference of 28 to 2. In the third round, they were just 4-3-3.

Australia's adjusted goal differential (+1.29) doesn't stack up with France's (+2.34), and even with injuries, France can overcome.

However, there isn't a lot of value in this match. numberFire views France as 79.1% likely to win, so the heavy France moneyline (-370) is just a one-star lean.

There's also a one-star suggestion on the over (at 2.5 goals), which my model has as 53.7% likely; numberFire's probability for 3 or more goals is 56.5%.

Hi can reply your PM please

 

[MAGAking1]

Hi can reply your PM please

There is quite a bit of free info on numberFire and all you have to do is signup FREE via email to bypass the constant popups.

They also have premium content that you can subscribe to....as to what EXACTLY you get for the premium content I dont sub to the premium so I dont know anything more about the site than anyone else who looks around on it.

GL with your plays pal!

 

[Serbone]

Who in here is going to be providing us picks throughout the world cup?

Close seeded early matches bet under if o/u is 2.5.
If it is a 38 vs 4 for example, do not bet the under it could be a 3-0 blowout LOL.

 

[ca$hmoney]

USA pk -140 ml +150…wtf does this mean?

 

[phelps123]

ML means -0.5. PK means 0.

 

[Serbone]

Means they traveled 7700 miles to score one goal against little Wales

 

[rwjr]

Means they traveled 7700 miles to score one goal against little Wales

the WELSH took on the Mighty Americans & held their own

Welsh Pubs will be open late tonight ?? until the wee morning hours with happy , drunk patrons

 

[phelps123]

Only because of a lucky penalty. You have nothing to celebrate about.

 

[MAGAking1]

US Men's Soccer Team STANDS For National Anthem-Woke LGBTQ Crest Nowhere To Be Seen | The Gateway Pundit | by Anthony Scott

The World Cup has kicked off and the US Men’s National team is taking on Wales in the first round of the FIFA World Cup.

www.thegatewaypundit.com

 

[BoutMyMoney]

Only because of a lucky penalty. You have nothing to celebrate about.

Lucky penalty ? He was hauled down lol.

 

[peanuts]

Is anyone taking action on France vs Australia match? I have the draw +500.

 

[rwjr]

Is anyone taking action on France vs Australia match? I have the draw +500.

I had sex with a French girl once ...... She could speak 5 languages

* French
* German
* English
* Italian
* Spanish


she talked dirty to me in French the whole time ..... I had NO idea what the hell she was saying but I was turned on at the time

she was a French hottie .... Tall , long legs , beautiful face , slim body
& Brunette hair down to her ass ( I love long hair on a chick )

 

[bestia]

Is anyone taking action on France vs Australia match? I have the draw +500.

France and team total over 1.5

 

[peanuts]

France and team total over 1.5

Thank you. I also end up taking France -455. Good luck with your action.