by: Josh Inglis
EDMONTON OILERS AT NASHVILLE PREDATORS
MCDAVID IN MUSIC CITY
Monday brings us slim pickings in the NHL with just two games. The matchup offering the most value is in Nashville where the Predators (3-2 SU, 2-3 O/U last five) host the Edmonton Oilers (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 O/U last five). This will be the Preds’ fifth and final home game before playing the next six of seven on the road. Nashville is 3-1 SU on its current homestand and is averaging 3.25 goals per game and 2.75 goals against.
Monday’s match will start a three-game road trip for the Oilers with stops in Nashville, Dallas on Tuesday and Chicago on Thursday. Edmonton is 2-3 SU and 2-3 O/U on the first game of back-to-backs this year. With both teams in the thick of playoff aspirations, we're looking for a closely checked game with two teams that are hitting the Under in over 50 percent of their last 10 games.
Nashville goalie Juuse Saros has great numbers against the Oilers over his career, posting a 1.79 goals against with a .952 save percentage in five games. With both teams sporting Top-7 numbers in scoring chance save percentage and bottom half numbers in shooting percentage over the last three weeks, we see the best play on the Under 6 goals to start the week.
MONTREAL CANADIENS AT NEW YORK ISLANDERS
THE PRICE IS RIGHT IN BROOKLYN
The Montreal Canadiens come into the Barclay Center having won five of the last six matchups against the New York Islanders. The Habs also are catching the Islanders at an opportunistic time as New York has dropped three straight decisions including two straight at home.
Statistically, the Islanders are in the bottom-third of the league in many important metrics like Corsi against, scoring chances against and scoring chance shooting percentage. Over the last two seasons, Montreal goalie Carey Price is 2-1 SU versus the Islanders with a 1.33 goals against and a sparkling .955 save percentage.
Montreal has been giving up leads with ease of late but that won’t stop us from taking the value on the underdog Canadiens on Tuesday night. Take Montreal on the ML.
BOSTON BRUINS AT TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
METRO’S BEST
The two best teams in the Metro Division will square off Tuesday as the Boston Bruins — winners of seven of their last nine on the road — take on the Lighting in Tampa Bay. The Bolts had a rocky final two weeks in February as they went 1-4 SU in their last five, had the second-worst shooting percentage on scoring chances and are now without their captain and No. 2 goal scorer in Steven Stamkos, who is out for eight weeks.
Boston and goaltender Tukka Rask are coming off a 4-0 shutout victory of the Islanders on Saturday and look like they have righted the ship after a couple of embarrassing losses to the Flames and Canucks. Tampa Bay has won both matchups this year with each game being decided by a single goal. We like the value of Boston which will be the underdog in this contest and is riding the confidence that comes with shutting out a previous opponent. Take the Bruins on the ML.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS AT WASHINGTON CAPITALS
ROUND FOUR IN D.C.
The Flyers and Capitals will meet for the fourth time this year in Washington on Wednesday. The Flyers have won twice including the most recent one back on February 8 - a 7-2 thumping in Washington that saw the visiting team pot seven goals against Washington goalie Braden Holtby.
Coming out of the weekend, the Flyers have won six straight games and have lost just three times in their last 14. Since February 12, Philly leads the league in expected goals against as it is giving up the fewest scoring chances per game over that stretch. We're backing the away team here as the Flyers should pay backers a good price as a midweek underdog. Take the Flyers on the moneyline.
If you’re looking for a little more action on this game, the Capitals are one of the league’s best Over teams at home and are 8-0-1 O/U in their last nine home games while the Flyers are 11-1 O/U in their last 12 away games.
GOALIE PROFILE: BEN BISHOP, DALLAS STARS
Looking to fade a cold goalie for an Over play this week? Take a look in Dallas with No. 1 goalie Ben Bishop. The Dallas backstop has permitted three or more goals in six of his last 10 starts, allowing four goals four times including his two most recent starts. Bishop holds a 4.21 goals against and .878 save percentage over the last two weeks and is coming off his worst month statistically.
On Tuesday, the Stars play host to the Oilers and we expect Bishop to get the start after backup Anton Khudobin played Saturday in a 4-3 loss. Bishop has started twice against the Oilers this year and holds a 0-1 SU record with a 3.71 goals against and a .884 save percentage. With Dallas not seeing a total of six goals or greater since January and sporting a Top-2 powerplay with a Bottom-10 penalty kill this month, it might be a great spot for an Over as Edmonton will also be on the backend of a back-to-back.
INJURY UPDATE: VICTOR OLOFSSON, BUFFALO SABRES
The Buffalo Sabres’ surprise rookie, Victor Olafson (19 G, 21 A in 50 GP), left Saturday’s game after injuring his right leg and was in obvious pain as he struggled to get off the ice. Olofsson had recently returned to the lineup on February 14 after missing over a month of action with a lower-body injury.
In the games that the forward was in the lineup (Feb 14 - Mar 1) the Sabres went 5-2-1 O/U and in the games the rookie missed they went 6-9-1 O/U. As a team, the Sabres averaged 2.65 goals for and 2.88 goals against without Olofsson and 3.25 goals for and 3.38 goals against with the rookie.
HAT TRICK TRENDS
• The Philadelphia Flyers, Calgary Flames and Vegas Golden Knights were the league’s best at scoring in February with each team scoring at least 3.85 goals per game. The Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals were bottom of the league in goals against per game last month with each club allowing at least 3.5 per contest.
• The Dallas Stars had the league’s best powerplay over the last 30 days at a 32.5 success rate. This is in stark contrast to their penalty killing which ranked second-last at 71 percent. The Stars averaged a middle-of-the-pack penalty rate at 8:20 per game while their powerplay saw the 24th-most time on the powerplay at just 3:20 a game.
• Away teams won just 42 percent of the games last week, down from their monthly average of 47 percent, but the teams that did win as road favorites covered the puckline at 50 percent which is a big increase on the monthly average of 34 percent.
EDMONTON OILERS AT NASHVILLE PREDATORS
MCDAVID IN MUSIC CITY
Monday brings us slim pickings in the NHL with just two games. The matchup offering the most value is in Nashville where the Predators (3-2 SU, 2-3 O/U last five) host the Edmonton Oilers (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 O/U last five). This will be the Preds’ fifth and final home game before playing the next six of seven on the road. Nashville is 3-1 SU on its current homestand and is averaging 3.25 goals per game and 2.75 goals against.
Monday’s match will start a three-game road trip for the Oilers with stops in Nashville, Dallas on Tuesday and Chicago on Thursday. Edmonton is 2-3 SU and 2-3 O/U on the first game of back-to-backs this year. With both teams in the thick of playoff aspirations, we're looking for a closely checked game with two teams that are hitting the Under in over 50 percent of their last 10 games.
Nashville goalie Juuse Saros has great numbers against the Oilers over his career, posting a 1.79 goals against with a .952 save percentage in five games. With both teams sporting Top-7 numbers in scoring chance save percentage and bottom half numbers in shooting percentage over the last three weeks, we see the best play on the Under 6 goals to start the week.
MONTREAL CANADIENS AT NEW YORK ISLANDERS
THE PRICE IS RIGHT IN BROOKLYN
The Montreal Canadiens come into the Barclay Center having won five of the last six matchups against the New York Islanders. The Habs also are catching the Islanders at an opportunistic time as New York has dropped three straight decisions including two straight at home.
Statistically, the Islanders are in the bottom-third of the league in many important metrics like Corsi against, scoring chances against and scoring chance shooting percentage. Over the last two seasons, Montreal goalie Carey Price is 2-1 SU versus the Islanders with a 1.33 goals against and a sparkling .955 save percentage.
Montreal has been giving up leads with ease of late but that won’t stop us from taking the value on the underdog Canadiens on Tuesday night. Take Montreal on the ML.
BOSTON BRUINS AT TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
METRO’S BEST
The two best teams in the Metro Division will square off Tuesday as the Boston Bruins — winners of seven of their last nine on the road — take on the Lighting in Tampa Bay. The Bolts had a rocky final two weeks in February as they went 1-4 SU in their last five, had the second-worst shooting percentage on scoring chances and are now without their captain and No. 2 goal scorer in Steven Stamkos, who is out for eight weeks.
Boston and goaltender Tukka Rask are coming off a 4-0 shutout victory of the Islanders on Saturday and look like they have righted the ship after a couple of embarrassing losses to the Flames and Canucks. Tampa Bay has won both matchups this year with each game being decided by a single goal. We like the value of Boston which will be the underdog in this contest and is riding the confidence that comes with shutting out a previous opponent. Take the Bruins on the ML.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS AT WASHINGTON CAPITALS
ROUND FOUR IN D.C.
The Flyers and Capitals will meet for the fourth time this year in Washington on Wednesday. The Flyers have won twice including the most recent one back on February 8 - a 7-2 thumping in Washington that saw the visiting team pot seven goals against Washington goalie Braden Holtby.
Coming out of the weekend, the Flyers have won six straight games and have lost just three times in their last 14. Since February 12, Philly leads the league in expected goals against as it is giving up the fewest scoring chances per game over that stretch. We're backing the away team here as the Flyers should pay backers a good price as a midweek underdog. Take the Flyers on the moneyline.
If you’re looking for a little more action on this game, the Capitals are one of the league’s best Over teams at home and are 8-0-1 O/U in their last nine home games while the Flyers are 11-1 O/U in their last 12 away games.
GOALIE PROFILE: BEN BISHOP, DALLAS STARS
Looking to fade a cold goalie for an Over play this week? Take a look in Dallas with No. 1 goalie Ben Bishop. The Dallas backstop has permitted three or more goals in six of his last 10 starts, allowing four goals four times including his two most recent starts. Bishop holds a 4.21 goals against and .878 save percentage over the last two weeks and is coming off his worst month statistically.
On Tuesday, the Stars play host to the Oilers and we expect Bishop to get the start after backup Anton Khudobin played Saturday in a 4-3 loss. Bishop has started twice against the Oilers this year and holds a 0-1 SU record with a 3.71 goals against and a .884 save percentage. With Dallas not seeing a total of six goals or greater since January and sporting a Top-2 powerplay with a Bottom-10 penalty kill this month, it might be a great spot for an Over as Edmonton will also be on the backend of a back-to-back.
INJURY UPDATE: VICTOR OLOFSSON, BUFFALO SABRES
The Buffalo Sabres’ surprise rookie, Victor Olafson (19 G, 21 A in 50 GP), left Saturday’s game after injuring his right leg and was in obvious pain as he struggled to get off the ice. Olofsson had recently returned to the lineup on February 14 after missing over a month of action with a lower-body injury.
In the games that the forward was in the lineup (Feb 14 - Mar 1) the Sabres went 5-2-1 O/U and in the games the rookie missed they went 6-9-1 O/U. As a team, the Sabres averaged 2.65 goals for and 2.88 goals against without Olofsson and 3.25 goals for and 3.38 goals against with the rookie.
HAT TRICK TRENDS
• The Philadelphia Flyers, Calgary Flames and Vegas Golden Knights were the league’s best at scoring in February with each team scoring at least 3.85 goals per game. The Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals were bottom of the league in goals against per game last month with each club allowing at least 3.5 per contest.
• The Dallas Stars had the league’s best powerplay over the last 30 days at a 32.5 success rate. This is in stark contrast to their penalty killing which ranked second-last at 71 percent. The Stars averaged a middle-of-the-pack penalty rate at 8:20 per game while their powerplay saw the 24th-most time on the powerplay at just 3:20 a game.
• Away teams won just 42 percent of the games last week, down from their monthly average of 47 percent, but the teams that did win as road favorites covered the puckline at 50 percent which is a big increase on the monthly average of 34 percent.