2015 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

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for anyone interested in the derby/oaks dd....the oaks im down to the.....4,7,8,12,13,5
 

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interesting u said earlier u think firing line (who i like a little) will might go and challenge a . pharoah...was just talking to a friend and he said he heard on tvg,one of the guys said his connections were going to take him back some in the derby....wish i could here that info myself...but he wouldnt lie to me
 

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if their speed and form hold up sat. it looks likes the west coast horses dominate the race
 
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:ohno: Now with the posts being drawn, a few notes on my end.............

# 1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho - the 1 hole kiss of death...............now he almost has to jump out front, or be smashed into a wall of horses......not good for him

# 2 - Carpe Diem - I think another bad spot

# 5 - Danzig Moon - good draw for him to sit back and watch everything unfold

# 6 - Muby - Think his connections should be ecstatic in the 6 hole

# 7 - El Kabeir - good post to set up off the pace, or jump towards the rail, as Calvin will place him

# 8 - Dortmund - see Muby's comments

# 12 - International Star - this post should fit well for his style

# 15 - Frosted - first out of the Aux gate..........no one on his left.........will play well for him

# 18 - American Pharoah - not good at all..............what is Victor going to do with him......go very wide on first turn ?

# 19 - Upstart - guess he is going to try and stay outside

# 20 - Far Right - shouldn't bother this closer...........stay back and go towards the rail on first turn, saving ground


....Now the fun begins...................let's start .....................
 
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:aktion033 OK, here are Mr. Jon White's selections for the Derby ( he is the capper with the 'strikes'...........)


1. American Pharoah
2. International Star
3. Dortmund
4. Carpe Diem


Take it for what it's worth..................
 

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:aktion033 OK, here are Mr. Jon White's selections for the Derby ( he is the capper with the 'strikes'...........)


1. American Pharoah
2. International Star
3. Dortmund
4. Carpe Diem


Take it for what it's worth..................
They're very similar to my own handicapped selections. (Good Luck!)
Here's my personal chart w/selections in bold.

PostRkPts:O-1O-2M/LHorse:WGT+ P A C EJockeyTrainer:Workouts
1841605/27/25/2American Pharoah+ 5MKV EspinozaB BaffertExcellent
821704/14/13/1Dortmund+ 4MKM GarciaB BaffertVer Good
231647/110/18/1Carpe Diem+ 4PRSJ R VelazquezT PletcherGood
12117118/115/120/1International Star+ 6OFFM MenaM MakerGood
6610010/112/120/1Mubtaahij+ 5ONC SoumillonM de KockGood
3710012/112/112/1Materiality+ 4MKJ CastellanoT PletcherGood
15511316/115/115/1Frosted+ 5ONOFFJ RosarioK McLaughlinGood
1997620/112/115/1Upstart+ 9PRSJ L OrtizR Violette Jr.Ver Good
10125816/115/112/1Firing Line+ 4MKG L StevensS CallaghanFair
20106233/130/130/1Far Right+7OFFM E SmithR MoquettFair
789533/130/130/1El Kabeir+ 7PRSC H BorelJ Terranova IIGood
9203040/130/130/1Bolo+ 8MKR BejaranoC GainesGood
5134540/130/130/1Danzig Moon+ 6ONOFFJ R LeparouxM CasseExcellent
13116040/130/130/1Itsaknockout+ 8PRSL SaezT PletcherGood
16144440/140/150/1War Story+ 8OFFJ TalamoT AmossFair
4154166/130/130/1Tencendur+ 6ONM FrancoG WeaverVer Good
13162040/140/150/1Keen Ice+ 9OFFK DesormeauxD RomansFair
17183440/150/150/1Mr. Z+ 6MKR A VazquezD. W LukasGood
1193040/150/150/1Ocho Ocho Ocho+ 4ONE TrujilloJ CassidyFair
11174050/150/130/1Stanford+ 8MKF GerouxT PletcherFair
21212050/150/150/1Frammento+ 9OFFC S NakataniN P ZitoFair
222250/1Tale of Verve+ 9OFFB J HernandezD StewartExcellent
 
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Very nice indeed......................throw Upstart in there and we would be exactly the same...........

Best to you................thanks for your input..................much appreciated............
 
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A friend of mine just informed me that Stanford may not run..................then Frammento will be in........................will have to wait and see.............
 
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Stanford may be out ...................will wait to see
 

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:ohno: Now with the posts being drawn, a few notes on my end.............

# 1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho - the 1 hole kiss of death...............now he almost has to jump out front, or be smashed into a wall of horses......not good for him

# 2 - Carpe Diem - I think another bad spot

# 5 - Danzig Moon - good draw for him to sit back and watch everything unfold

# 6 - Muby - Think his connections should be ecstatic in the 6 hole

# 7 - El Kabeir - good post to set up off the pace, or jump towards the rail, as Calvin will place him

# 8 - Dortmund - see Muby's comments

# 12 - International Star - this post should fit well for his style

# 15 - Frosted - first out of the Aux gate..........no one on his left.........will play well for him

# 18 - American Pharoah - not good at all..............what is Victor going to do with him......go very wide on first turn ?

# 19 - Upstart - guess he is going to try and stay outside

# 20 - Far Right - shouldn't bother this closer...........stay back and go towards the rail on first turn, saving ground


....Now the fun begins...................let's start .....................
Other then the Ajax lineage info (almost every entry this year is covered!) this has been a very interesting thread. So I thought I might add my own comments:

# 1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho - the 1 hole kiss of death...............now he almost has to jump out front, or be smashed into a wall of horses......not good for him
This WAS my long shot play of the Derby, but the poor W/O’s and PP knocks him out

# 2 - Carpe Diem - I think another bad spot –
True, but this one has already beaten many in this field and has enough early speed to get a decent position going into that 1[SUP]st[/SUP] turn. Will probably be mid-pack on back-stretch.

# 5 - Danzig Moon - good draw for him to sit back and watch everything unfold
Has excellent W/O’s for this and might grab a share.

# 6 - Muby - Think his connections should be ecstatic in the 6 hole
This is my KEY longshot in my Supers and if he’s in any of the top 4 slots with my other picks (preferably 1[SUP]st[/SUP] or 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]) I’m in! Only Derby entry with Proven distance capability and his trainer is 6 for 6 in the money when entering a horse in the U.S.

# 7 - El Kabeir - good post to set up off the pace, or jump towards the rail, as Calvin will place him
Has decent W/O’s but the pace in this race will probably be too much for him.

# 8 - Dortmund - see Muby's comments
I’d love to throw him out, but with the best pedigree in the race and incredible determination to win he’s be in my mix.

# 12 - International Star - this post should fit well for his style
Doesn’t show the same speed as some, but with Good W/O’s and improvement in every race, this one also has show a strong will to win. Race fits its racing style

# 15 - Frosted - first out of the Aux gate..........no one on his left.........will play well for him
With Good W/O’s, the breathing problem corrected and Rosario up this one has a real shot if rated properly

# 18 - American Pharoah - not good at all..............what is Victor going to do with him......go very wide on first turn ?
The only horse I can recall winning from #18 is Foolish Pleasure and AP looks like the same type of horse. (Maybe even better!) W/O’s are Excellent and will be all out to win this one!

# 19 - Upstart - guess he is going to try and stay outside
Very good W/O’s and has plenty of speed, but may have trouble getting a decent early position and may use too much energy trying to get that position.

# 20 - Far Right - shouldn't bother this closer...........stay back and go towards the rail on first turn, saving ground
Only Fair W/O’s for this closer. Mike S. will try to save him for a big run at the end. Traffic may be a big problem for this one.
 

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ok, im done....my derby pics........#8 dortmound.....#15 frosted....#19 upstart
 
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ok, im done....my derby pics........#8 dortmound.....#15 frosted....#19 upstart

Like all 3.........................thanks
 
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:think2: Ok, one more little piece of information.................which of the Derby horses have the X Factor.................the Large Heart Gene..........


They are
------ Dortmund, American Pharoah, Upstart, Firing Line, and Bolo...............


That's it..................now time to make some selections...............

Be well all....................
 
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:think2: Well, I think it is going to be 'tough' to try and beat the big 3 in this race.................but we are going to try, ........hey, it's the Derby , what else are we going to do.......


With that being said, here are my plays for the Kentucky Derby.............


Going to go with following;

------ Great win candidates -
-----------------------------------Frosted, Upstart, International Star, Dortmund

------ Could hit the board candidates , for the exotics -
-----------------------------------American Pharoah, Materiality, Muby , Carpe Diem

------ Big Bombers to look out for -
----------------------------------- Far Right, Danzig Moon , Frammento


We , my friends and I, will take these horses listed above and 'key' them, 'box' them etc.............

Best of luck to all of you, it's been a great week.................and hope you all get to cash some tickets tomorrow..........

Be well all...........remember " Hey Eddie, Can you lend me a few bucks ".................
 

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:think2: Well, I think it is going to be 'tough' to try and beat the big 3 in this race.................but we are going to try, ........hey, it's the Derby , what else are we going to do.......


With that being said, here are my plays for the Kentucky Derby.............


Going to go with following;

------ Great win candidates -
-----------------------------------Frosted, Upstart, International Star, Dortmund

------ Could hit the board candidates , for the exotics -
-----------------------------------American Pharoah, Materiality, Muby , Carpe Diem

------ Big Bombers to look out for -
----------------------------------- Far Right, Danzig Moon , Frammento


We , my friends and I, will take these horses listed above and 'key' them, 'box' them etc.............

Best of luck to all of you, it's been a great week.................and hope you all get to cash some tickets tomorrow..........

Be well all...........remember " Hey Eddie, Can you lend me a few bucks ".................

Good luck bro !!!! Bucking that trend with International Star ... you never know ...
The Computer Group
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04-28-2015, 05:04 PM

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Originally Posted by Kaboom
Yes ... all derby winners since 2000 had at least 1 gene of the Ajax horse in the 9th Generation .. Many will laugh this off ... go ahead guys ... this kind of stuff has made me money in the past , if that was lucky so be it . Keep the smart comments to yourself . I won't bother to post stuff like it , again .. Good luck !!




I never laugh at any angle, I love angles like the one about Ajax, they're money makers. Its a nice tool for the arsenal.

If you don't mind, could you please post all the horses that have Ajax in them? Thanks in advance!​







Bit surprised not see Firing Line on your list , but that's cool ..... I have Mubtaahij , Firing Line , Dortmund .... 6/8/10 first slot ... 2nd slot 6/8/10/15/18... 3rd slot 6/8/10/12/ 15/18/.... That's my trifecta ...

I'll have a 4 horse exacta box 6 / 8 / 10 / 15..... Probably placing win tickets on the 6 /8 / 10.... Hope someone cashes !!!!1
 

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Elevenblack, I just wanted to wish you luck on Saturday as I might not chime in but read your thoughts in this thread and I think you like the same horses I do but will have my own thread going latter on tonight for the race.
 

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Great info. Love upstart at 15 to 1. I think he will be there at the end. Im betting him across the board and all my exocitics
 

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After listening to so many horse-players over the years commenting about not having a Triple Crown winner, I responded many years ago (last century actually) with my belief that the next TC winner will be an overseas invader. My prime reason for this is because I firmly believe that the incredibly widespread use of drugs throughout the horse racing industry has in fact negatively affected the gene pool among the thoroughbreds and their breeding in the U.S. I also believe that this has had a dramatic affect on the performance, stamina, durability and soundness of the high caliber horses racing here.
This just might be the year that my prediction comes to fruition. If Muttaahij wins this derby I believe it’ll go all the way!

For this Derby I’ve decided to Key Mubtaahij in all the top money spots in Supers and Tri’s with:
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Carpe Diem
International Star

Good Luck to All !!
 

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