2015 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[elevenblack301]

And tale a look at the sire lines of the past Derby winners.................and especially the RAN line.................fascinating stuff...........

http://freepps.comoj.com/2015 Derby AHP/Tidbits/Derby Sire Lines.html


This web site is filled with information about the derby..................could spend hours on it..........

Be sure to check out their Derby Factors # 1 to # 11........

Be well all..........................2 days to post draw.......................

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: ..........Was watching Dortmund last night, and wow, he is a giant massive horse...............absolutely beautiful...........


It’s time to look at which of the contenders have been steadily improving over their last 3 races , in the all important categories of Beyer Figures, Speed , and Late Pace numbers.


Those who have improved only in Beyer numbers are..........

...................Stanford, Made From Lucky, Bold Conquest

Those who have improved only in Speed numbers are..........

...................American Pharaoh , Firing Line

And now for the combinations..............

Those who have improved in Beyer and Speed numbers are..........

...................Dortmund, Materiality


Those who have improved in Beyer and Late Pace numbers are.........

...................War Story

Those who have improved in Speed and Late Pace numbers are.........

...................Carpe Diem, El Kabeir, Frammento


And for the biggie.............who has improved in all 3 numbers and looking to add to that.....

Those who have improved in Beyer and Speed and Late Pace numbers are.........

....................International Star , Far Right...............


I knew about International Star, but Far Right...........interesting , isn't it...............

Be well all...............looking forward to your selections as we get nearer to the big day...........

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Good stuff guys!

 

[elevenblack301]

..................TCG, .....thanks..looking forward to your insight as always..........


:think2: Ok, which of these horses might be trying to set the pace, off to an early lead........

Maybe................
----- Dortmund
----- Bolo
----- Ocho Ocho Ocho
----- Mr Z
----- American Pharoah
----- Firing Line

And who is going to press and sit off the pace................

Maybe.................
----- Materiality
----- Upstart
----- Mubtaahij
----- Tencendur
----- El Kabeir
----- It’s a Knockout
----- Carpe Diem
----- Stanford
----- Frosted

And who is going to be sitting at the back of the pack, ready to shift gears..........

Probably...............
----- International Star
----- War Story
----- Made From Lucky
----- Danzig Moon
----- Bold Conquest
----- Far Right
----- Keen Ice
----- Frammento

And the winner of the Kentucky Derby will come from which of these packs..............

 

[TheComputerGroup]

..................TCG, .....thanks..looking forward to your insight as always..........


:think2: Ok, which of these horses might be trying to set the pace, off to an early lead........

Maybe................
----- Dortmund
----- Bolo
----- Ocho Ocho Ocho
----- Mr Z
----- American Pharoah
----- Firing Line

And who is going to press and sit off the pace................

Maybe.................
----- Materiality
----- Upstart
----- Mubtaahij
----- Tencendur
----- El Kabeir
----- It’s a Knockout
----- Carpe Diem
----- Stanford
----- Frosted

And who is going to be sitting at the back of the pack, ready to shift gears..........

Probably...............
----- International Star
----- War Story
----- Made From Lucky
----- Danzig Moon
----- Bold Conquest
----- Far Right
----- Keen Ice
----- Frammento

And the winner of the Kentucky Derby will come from which of these packs..............

Tough to know what Pharaoh will do, I suspect Espinoza will try to stalk the pace as he did with Chrome last year. Problem is, there's way too much talent up front this year.

I think the horse that wins it this year comes from the back of the pack. Huge payouts this year IMO, gotta wait for the post draw tomorrow before I break the race down better.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Also, Stanford & Materiality will either be up front or press the pace. I personally think Materiality will be up front with Firing Line, Dortmund, Stanford, Ocho, Mr Z, with Bolo & Pharaoh breathing down their throats.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Yes ... all derby winners since 2000 had at least 1 gene of the Ajax horse in the 9th Generation .. Many will laugh this off ... go ahead guys ... this kind of stuff has made me money in the past , if that was lucky so be it . Keep the smart comments to yourself . I won't bother to post stuff like it , again .. Good luck !!

I never laugh at any angle, I love angles like the one about Ajax, they're money makers. Its a nice tool for the arsenal.

If you don't mind, could you please post all the horses that have Ajax in them? Thanks in advance!

 

[Kaboom]

I never laugh at any angle, I love angles like the one about Ajax, they're money makers. Its a nice tool for the arsenal.

If you don't mind, could you please post all the horses that have Ajax in them? Thanks in advance!

Appreciate it bro ... It's a bunch of work ... The rest of these have the ajax gene ...

American Pharoah	Bob Baffert	4.33	Victor Espinoza
Bold Conquest	Steve Asmussen	3.36	Luis Quinonez
Bolo	Carla Gaines	2.00	Rafael Bejarano
Danzig Moon	Mark Casse	3.44	Julien Leparoux
Dortmund	Bob Baffert	2.38 *	Martin Garcia
El Kabeir	John Terranova II	3.57 *	Calvin Borel
Far Right	Ron Moquett	1.50	Mike Smith
Firespike	Mike Maker	2.00	Miguel Mena
Firing Line	Simon Callaghan	3.00	Gary Stevens
Frammento	Nick Zito	3.50	Gary Stevens
Frosted	Kiaran McLaughlin	2.75	Irad Ortiz Jr.
Itsaknockout	Todd Pletcher	1.29	Luis Saez
Keen Ice	Dale Romans	2.73	Kent Desormeaux
Materiality	Todd Pletcher	2.33	Javier Castellano
Mr. Z	D. Wayne Lukas	3.00 *	Ramon Vazquez
Mubtaahij	Mike de Kock	1.00	Christophe Soumillon
Ocho Ocho Ocho	Jim Cassidy	2.11 *	Mike Smith
Stanford	Todd Pletcher	3.36	Florent Geroux
Tencendur	George Weaver	3.00	Manny Franco
Toasting Master	Dale Romans	2.00	Angel Arroyo
Upstart	Rick Violette Jr.	3.00	Jose Ortiz
War Story	Tom Amoss	2.73	Joe Talamo

 

[elevenblack301]

Kaboom,

As always great stuff........................and I do appreciate it.................looking forward to your insight...........

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: A few more numbers to consider as we get closer to post position draw...........

The Sire and Dam AWD's.....and the Dosage Indexes


.............................................Sire AWD............Dam AWD................Dosage Index
American Pharoah....................8.42.....................8.25.............................4.33
Bold Conquest.........................8.34.....................7.70.............................3.36
Bolo.......................................8.38.....................7.00.............................2.00
Carpe Diem.............................8.84......................7.91............................1.83
Danzig Moon...........................8.05......................8.01............................3.44
Dortmund...............................8.50......................7.83............................2.38
El Kabeir.................................8.14......................7.91............................3.57
Far Right................................8.25......................7.50............................1.50
Firing Line...............................8.75......................8.00............................3.00
Frammento.............................6.33......................na................................3.50
Frosted..................................8.46.......................8.62............................2.80
International Star....................8.27.......................7.70............................4.09
It’s a Knockout.......................8.64.......................7.57............................1.29
Keen Ice.................................8.34......................7.99.............................2.73
Materiality...............................8.62.......................7.67............................2.33
Mr Z.......................................8.05.......................7.94............................3.00
Mubtaahij................................9.42.......................9.00............................1.00
Ocho Ocho Ocho......................7.76.......................7.18............................2.11
Stanford.................................8.05.......................7.70............................3.36
Tencendur...............................5.50.......................7.56............................3.00
Upstart...................................7.73.......................8.48............................3.00
War Story...............................7.93.......................8.48............................2.73



What do I see here....................is that A Pharoah and I Star have that dreaded over 4.0 Dosage Index , and that Muby was bred to run all day long


Be well all.................

 

[elevenblack301]

After looking at this graph, one would want to toss all of Todd Pletcher's horses........................

Here is a graph of his success, or should we say unsuccessful attempts in the Derby............






So he has 1 win, the rest seem to fall in the middle of the pack range or in the bottom 1/2 of the pack.

 

[Hndfulprls]

Great stuff!! Eleven thanks again for starting these threads.

 

[elevenblack301]

Great stuff!! Eleven thanks again for starting these threads.

You are very welcome..................................just glad I'm able to share with others 'stuff' about this wonderful sport.............

Hopefully in a few days, we can all put our 'thinking caps' on, and come together to pick some winners, because that's what it is all about...............

Be well........................

 

[Kaboom]

Thanks bro ... I really wasn't sure if people get into all that Pedigree stuff ...There is a ton of info out there and me being on permanent disability , I have the time to really dig in this year .. Always look forward to your and anyone else's info on making me a better capper , because , imo ...that's what these forums should be all about . Good luck this year .... I'll keep dumping , sometimes , useful info , depending on the guy who looks at it .

 

[elevenblack301]

Thanks bro ... I really wasn't sure if people get into all that Pedigree stuff ...There is a ton of info out there and me being on permanent disability , I have the time to really dig in this year .. Always look forward to your and anyone else's info on making me a better capper , because , imo ...that's what these forums should be all about . Good luck this year .... I'll keep dumping , sometimes , useful info , depending on the guy who looks at it .

Kaboom,

The Pedigree info is huge , especially in these big races........................keep them coming.................THANKS

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Every horse looks healthy, unless there's a scratch by Friday 9am I believe, Frammento & another horse that was entered,forget his name, wwon't get in.

A lot of the supposed "experts" like Pharaoh & Dortmund. Maybe these horses run 1-2, but I won't be betting them.

Is there a Mine That Bird or Giacomo in this field, that's been touted as one of the deepest fields in a very long time? We shall see.....

 

[elevenblack301]

hno: Another Little Tidbit to add to our arsenal.......


The Major Prep Factor................


From an historical perspective, one of the most reliable angles can be found in the results of the four major prep races. Of the 62 winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1952, 48 (77%) finished in the top three in either the Florida Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial, or Santa Anita Derby. Of the last 62 Derby winners, 22 (35%) have finished first in one of these prep races.



...............2015 Kentucky Derby
Potential Kentucky Derby starters who finished in the top three of the major preps:

Carpe Diem – 1st Blue Grass Stakes –
Danzig Moon – 2nd Blue Grass Stakes –
Ocho Ocho Ocho – 3rd Blue Grass Stakes –
Materiality – 1st Florida Derby –
Upstart – 2nd Florida Derby –
Dortmund – 1st Santa Anita Derby –
Bolo – 3rd Santa Anita Derby –
Frosted – 1st Wood Memorial –
Tencedur – 2nd Wood Memorial –
El Kabier – 3rd Wood Memorial –


...............................

 

[Kaboom]

hno: Another Little Tidbit to add to our arsenal.......


The Major Prep Factor................


From an historical perspective, one of the most reliable angles can be found in the results of the four major prep races. Of the 62 winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1952, 48 (77%) finished in the top three in either the Florida Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial, or Santa Anita Derby. Of the last 62 Derby winners, 22 (35%) have finished first in one of these prep races.



...............2015 Kentucky Derby
Potential Kentucky Derby starters who finished in the top three of the major preps:

Carpe Diem – 1st Blue Grass Stakes –
Danzig Moon – 2nd Blue Grass Stakes –
Ocho Ocho Ocho – 3rd Blue Grass Stakes –
Materiality – 1st Florida Derby –
Upstart – 2nd Florida Derby –
Dortmund – 1st Santa Anita Derby –
Bolo – 3rd Santa Anita Derby –
Frosted – 1st Wood Memorial –
Tencedur – 2nd Wood Memorial –
El Kabier – 3rd Wood Memorial –


...............................

...Nicely done ...

 

[kbrod66]

glad u remembered that site eleven....chef-de-race.......good stuff.......they also give their contenders for this race.....just look it up, i think its on the 2015 derby pace peremeters

 

[elevenblack301]

glad u remembered that site eleven....chef-de-race.......good stuff.......they also give their contenders for this race.....just look it up, i think its on the 2015 derby pace peremeters

Great site.......................looking forward to your plays..........................thanks