2010 mlb capping & betting #102 - daily key info plus q&a

[pops69]

ok a couple of what i feel is needed to be effective

1. already mentioned the importance of having excel and knowing your way around the block. pivot tables are a must

2. good weather site. one of the most important external factors in the game today

3. advance notice of key injuries and umps. i use sports options and would not be betting 1 cent on any sport without it. if your only a small bettor of let say 50 or so per game you can do with the normal package. a couple of hours advance notice on key umps can save you a point and give you a two side advantage if you on top of it. in my opinion none bettor that sports options and what they do and how fast you get notices etc

4. if you bet mlb fav DONT bet them early up to star break after than it will even up and than later in the season bet those 1st esp teams like nyy and very good pitching match ups

5. during the 1st month of play i use the pitching era and whip numbers from last year, and switch to current year starting in may

6. for those that follow the game you have a little advantage on pitching if you know which pitchers just got traded to the AL from NL as other that the real good pitchers they on avg will be about one full run better in there era from the previous year

there's more but we'll give that some time to hit the floor

also i get real dam busy come the start of the season and will have little time if any to answere any questions so here's your time to shit or get off the pot

links to most of the files i use are in the 1st post and page 1 or so. other than that you can just start from the current day's post which will have all the daily rotations and key capping numbers as well as updated masters

all i got for now

so post em if you got em

 

[patswin]

Whats up pops? long time.....

good to see you made it back safe jb
good to have you back

 

[patswin]

what's up pops
long time no talk
hard to believe bases are almost here
are you back in the land of free health care for all?

 

[pops69]

what's up pops
long time no talk
hard to believe bases are almost here
are you back in the land of free health care for all?

lol, makes me feel like coming back

mlb, is a love and hate relationship

love for the money

hate for all the work (worse than having two day job cleaning toilets at the sporting events)

 

[patswin]

if anyone wants the betting and capping notes in word 07 pm me with your email and I can send it to you. Apparently we can't upload .docx files to site. I formatted in word, is much easier to read. its about 21 pages long.
thanks for all the work pops much appreciated

 

[pops69]

if anyone wants the betting and capping notes in word 07 pm me with your email and I can send it to you. Apparently we can't upload .docx files to site. I formatted in word, is much easier to read. its about 21 pages long.
thanks for all the work pops much appreciated

tks pat. i had it in a word format but i couldnt upload it so i just dumped into excel. and yes it was tough to read. plus i only edited about a 1/4 of the file

 

[ARD]

One ump I'm keeping an eye on is Manny Gonzalez.

He put up this beauty of a game: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2010_03_17_sdnmlb_kcamlb_1

He's a new ump and the broadcasters said his K zone tight.

 

[pops69]

One ump I'm keeping an eye on is Manny Gonzalez.

He put up this beauty of a game: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2010_03_17_sdnmlb_kcamlb_1

He's a new ump and the broadcasters said his K zone tight.

what makes you think he'll come up for the full season. plus you need to see him work the plate yourself to see if he really is. i have drop down filters in my pdws so it's easy for me to find which ever ones i want

only time will tell, but keep watching and let us know

 

[oilbarrel]

pops where you putting the over under on views for this thrread? by the first pitch next season- I think i'd open around 235

 

[IrishTim]

Feels good to be back pops. Your college hoops thread turned into a bit of a circus (no fault of your own) and I had some other things to attend to but I'm back. I plan on spending a good amount of time in here.

 

[pops69]

pops where you putting the over under on views for this thrread? by the first pitch next season- I think i'd open around 235

big thing is most people are out of fucken money, esp with what they lost on foots and hoops. few jobs other than gov handouts so not much extra. but i would go with the over

 

[pops69]

Feels good to be back pops. Your college hoops thread turned into a bit of a circus (no fault of your own) and I had some other things to attend to but I'm back. I plan on spending a good amount of time in here.

yep, just looking for something easy with as little amount of work and thinking as possible. needed a rest from the number crunching

i'll have oil send you something. need to review ML open and LM vs public numbers to see if you came up with anything worth while

 

[pops69]

wednesday march 24th

only 10 more shopping days until xmas

 

[FairWarning]

wednesday march 24th

only 10 more shopping days until xmas

So true. Cubs fade train at dog prices, all-aboard.

 

[pops69]

tim, oil is send you a message from garcia

 

[pops69]

question of the day

should there be a specific calc to adj the OL based on the ML range to try and determine it relation to the public betting numbers

in foots and hoops the spreads takes that factor into consideration eg. fav ol -4 and the public is 50/50 with that number

but in mlb you dont have all that many -110 games on each side but if you did the 50/50 rule would apply

so if the ML opens at -220 or 2-1 would you still treat the public number at 50/50 to be dead even or weighted more to the dog side

open for discussion, questions or comments

tks

 

[oilbarrel]

IT- you have mail

pops here's my thoughts

I follow what your saying, but my first pass answer is no because I think you've already accounted for it or at least in the way i view the data.



I pivot the team by the home fav ranking (Hf1, hf2, etc) I then look at line moves based off of those. Because I think you do have an issue if you do look at line moves straight up because the Hf7's are goign to have larger moves given the juice

 

[oilbarrel]

if you start making other adustments I think you make things too complicated and risk making apples to apples comparisons

 

[pops69]

IT- you have mail

pops here's my thoughts

I follow what your saying, but my first pass answer is no because I think you've already accounted for it or at least in the way i view the data.



I pivot the team by the home fav ranking (Hf1, hf2, etc) I then look at line moves based off of those. Because I think you do have an issue if you do look at line moves straight up because the Hf7's are goign to have larger moves given the juice

that is why i did the cats to specifically do that. but now that i have all the public numbers i'm greedy and looking for mo money. dont want to leave any jb 20's out there to dry w/o giving them a shot

 

[pops69]

if you start making other adustments I think you make things too complicated and risk making apples to apples comparisons

which is why i recommend the looking at the macro levels and keep drilling until you get to the point were the detail is useless or applies