2010 mlb capping & betting #102 - daily key info plus q&a

[pops69]

kinda looks like get away day is under day

sunday is getaway day, and as the season gets older they do

 

[mizantrop]

Waldo is under ump?

 

[pops69]

Waldo is under ump?

all the waldo umps on my pdws that i track are under umps

 

[pops69]

with the track conditions today for the big d the super is going to pay around 500k on a 12 dollar super box

 

[mason456]

with the track conditions today for the big d the super is going to pay around 500k on a 12 dollar super box

How can u cover all 20 horses for 12 dollar super box:think2:

 

[pops69]

How can u cover all 20 horses for 12 dollar super box:think2:

lol, a dollar super box costs 24 dollars for 4 horses

going with

1,8,11,17 on the small ticked

the other is wtf over everyone head

 

[joelatti]

lol, a dollar super box costs 24 dollars for 4 horses

going with

1,8,11,17 on the small ticked

the other is wtf over everyone head

The 1 horse is going to have to be mighty special to be there...the Slop and the post should hurt him HUGE

 

[mason456]

lol, a dollar super box costs 24 dollars for 4 horses

going with

1,8,11,17 on the small ticked

the other is wtf over everyone head

Your right it 180 big ones

 

[pops69]

lol, a dollar super box costs 24 dollars for 4 horses

going with

1,8,11,17 on the small ticked

the other is wtf over everyone head

at least that guy can buy a new rug now. although he wont need it now for the honey's

 

[pops69]

The 1 horse is going to have to be mighty special to be there...the Slop and the post should hurt him HUGE

if he dont get railed twice he had a shot to be in the money

 

[pops69]

Sunday May 2nd

today's pdws and updated master and sharing info below

as i said yesterday with wash and cin. what's up will come down

old business none

looks like o/u numbers reflect getting out of dodge day

 

[CTP]

Did Cubs open at 10 or 10.5?

 

[mizantrop]

at 10

 

[pops69]

Did Cubs open at 10 or 10.5?

yes 10 and a M5

 

[pops69]

last 3 years zona has been an over machine in april

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 96pt;" width="128" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64" span="2"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 48pt;" width="64" height="20">
</td> <td class="xl97" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Apr</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">ARI</td> <td class="xl96">67%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">ATL</td> <td class="xl96">33%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">BAL</td> <td class="xl96">44%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">BOS</td> <td class="xl96">62%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">CIN</td> <td class="xl96">50%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">CLE</td> <td class="xl96">17%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">COL</td> <td class="xl96">33%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">CUB</td> <td class="xl96">40%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">CWS</td> <td class="xl96">50%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">DET</td> <td class="xl96">56%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">FLA</td> <td class="xl96">80%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HOU</td> <td class="xl96">40%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">KAN</td> <td class="xl96">58%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">LAA</td> <td class="xl96">47%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">LOS</td> <td class="xl96">71%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">MIL</td> <td class="xl96">67%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">MIN</td> <td class="xl96">44%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">NYM</td> <td class="xl96">31%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">NYY</td> <td class="xl96">33%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">OAK</td> <td class="xl96">43%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">PHI</td> <td class="xl96">67%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">PIT</td> <td class="xl96">44%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">SDG</td> <td class="xl96">40%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">SEA</td> <td class="xl96">22%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">SFO</td> <td class="xl96">42%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">STL</td> <td class="xl96">30%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">TAM</td> <td class="xl96">67%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">TEX</td> <td class="xl96">54%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">TOR</td> <td class="xl96">43%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">WAS</td> <td class="xl96">38%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Grand Total</td> <td class="xl96">47%</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

 

[BadCo]

MLB Umpires – Who gives up the most runs?

April 28, 2010

<!--end post header--> by Jay Eward

<!--end meta-->

In the first few weeks of the 2010 MLB season, there have been several baseball games that have ended with football scores. Last week, on a Washington Nationals broadcast, MASN color commentator Rob Dibble asked, “I wonder if there are some umpires that are more likely to call games with football scores than others?” I went to the 2009 MLB Pitch F/X data to find the answer.
The quick answer is yes – the plate umpire tends to make a difference in the total number of runs scored per game. Excluding umpires who called fewer than 10 games, the total number of runs per game ranged from 7.3 to 13.3.
Umpires with lower scoring games include:

• Jeff Kellogg – 7.31 RGP – 36 games
• Bill Hohn - 7.70 RGP – 27 games
• Jerry Layne – 7.74 RPG – 34 games

Umpires with higher scoring games include:

• Mike Muchlinski – 13.27 RPG – 11 games
• Tim Tschida - 11.34 RPG – 32 games
• Tim McClelland – 11.25 RPG – 36 games

As you can see, that’s a huge disparity over the course of an entire season.
Here is the list of all Umpires in 2009:


Is there a difference between home and away runs scored?

I also looked at whether or not the home or away team typically scored more runs with an umpire. In 2009, the average score for a home team was 4.68 runs. The average score for the away team was 4.45 runs.
In the chart below, the dashed orange lines mark the season average scores for the home and away teams. The dashed red line displays an even score 2-2, 3-3, etc. So, in 2009, visiting teams tended to score more than home teams for the umpires listed above the red line, home teams tended to score more than the away teams for umpires listed below the red line.

I listed by name umpires who averaged .75 more runs per game (either favoring the home or away team). These umpires are all displayed furthest from the red line. Umpires listed in red called fewer than 10 games.
Umpires with favorable visiting team differentials:

• Kerwin Danley – 1.60 More Runs Per Game – 10 games
• Tim Timmons – 1.46 More Runs Per Game – 35 games
• Paul Nauert – 1.26 More Runs Per Game – 34 games

Umpires with favorable home team differentials:

• Mike Muchlinski – 2.55 More Runs Per Game – 11 games
• Adrian Johnson - 2.09 More Runs Per Game – 35 games
• Jerry Crawford – 2.00 More Runs Per Game – 25 games

I have made the full list available on Google Docs here.
Looking at MLB’s data, it does appear that the total game score is somewhat impacted by the man behind the plate.

 

[pops69]

MLB Umpires – Who gives up the most runs?

April 28, 2010

<!--end post header--> by Jay Eward

<!--end meta-->

In the first few weeks of the 2010 MLB season, there have been several baseball games that have ended with football scores. Last week, on a Washington Nationals broadcast, MASN color commentator Rob Dibble asked, “I wonder if there are some umpires that are more likely to call games with football scores than others?” I went to the 2009 MLB Pitch F/X data to find the answer.
The quick answer is yes – the plate umpire tends to make a difference in the total number of runs scored per game. Excluding umpires who called fewer than 10 games, the total number of runs per game ranged from 7.3 to 13.3.
Umpires with lower scoring games include:

• Jeff Kellogg – 7.31 RGP – 36 games
• Bill Hohn - 7.70 RGP – 27 games
• Jerry Layne – 7.74 RPG – 34 games

Umpires with higher scoring games include:

• Mike Muchlinski – 13.27 RPG – 11 games
• Tim Tschida - 11.34 RPG – 32 games
• Tim McClelland – 11.25 RPG – 36 games

As you can see, that’s a huge disparity over the course of an entire season.
Here is the list of all Umpires in 2009:


Is there a difference between home and away runs scored?

I also looked at whether or not the home or away team typically scored more runs with an umpire. In 2009, the average score for a home team was 4.68 runs. The average score for the away team was 4.45 runs.
In the chart below, the dashed orange lines mark the season average scores for the home and away teams. The dashed red line displays an even score 2-2, 3-3, etc. So, in 2009, visiting teams tended to score more than home teams for the umpires listed above the red line, home teams tended to score more than the away teams for umpires listed below the red line.

I listed by name umpires who averaged .75 more runs per game (either favoring the home or away team). These umpires are all displayed furthest from the red line. Umpires listed in red called fewer than 10 games.
Umpires with favorable visiting team differentials:

• Kerwin Danley – 1.60 More Runs Per Game – 10 games
• Tim Timmons – 1.46 More Runs Per Game – 35 games
• Paul Nauert – 1.26 More Runs Per Game – 34 games

Umpires with favorable home team differentials:

• Mike Muchlinski – 2.55 More Runs Per Game – 11 games
• Adrian Johnson - 2.09 More Runs Per Game – 35 games
• Jerry Crawford – 2.00 More Runs Per Game – 25 games

I have made the full list available on Google Docs here.
Looking at MLB’s data, it does appear that the total game score is somewhat impacted by the man behind the plate.

nice analysis. would like to see my waldo's

 

[IrishTim]

Where'd you find that badco? I'd love to see those numbers in that spreadsheet compared to the totals of the games they ump. I also think it'd help to get a few more years of data on these fellas in that format.

 

[pops69]

Where'd you find that badco? I'd love to see those numbers in that spreadsheet compared to the totals of the games they ump. I also think it'd help to get a few more years of data on these fellas in that format.

it's very well done. you can see the waldo's at the bottom of the list

 

[pops69]

monday may 3rd

reach day

todays pdws and updated master and sharing data below

no old business