everyone of the waldo's in the pdws are adj in all games after the 1st and 2nd game of a series, so you really need to pay close attention to the LM and other external factors. some are only reflected in the money number vs the actual o/u number eg. o/u 8 -125o but other have a half point or more as well as a money adjustment
everyone of the waldo's in the pdws are adj in all games after the 1st and 2nd game of a series, so you really need to pay close attention to the LM and other external factors. some are only reflected in the money number vs the actual o/u number eg. o/u 8 -125o but other have a half point or more as well as a money adjustment
I will finish out the week here and move on. Several real good plays or cats as you wish.
I know I will not fall into good favor here but here it goes anyway as I see it.
HM DOG N with ARIZ again. Again falls into same mess as that cat in the N league is now 3-9 as Ariz lost yesterday.
Road Dog A with Tor and Tor in the double header. Here again that cat in the A league is 1-5. Don't know the calc involved to get the Road Dog but was surprised it picked up both games in the double header.
There is a JJ Vis play but there have been very few of these in the A league and this is with Min. Total win/loss is 10-10 and last 21 days 0-1 so a pass for me.
Here are a few I really like with real good records. Take Phil, Mil, Ariz and SEA.
These are kind of scary as some going for a sweep and don't care for that though have no numbers to support. I have conflicting info on the Ariz game. The zen above lists it poorly but several other cats support it so a no play for me.
Again I don't look at lines and make my decision later. Also any thing you choose is your play not mine.
No totals.
I know I will not fall into good favor here but here it goes anyway as I see it.
HM DOG N with ARIZ again. Again falls into same mess as that cat in the N league is now 3-9 as Ariz lost yesterday.
Road Dog A with Tor and Tor in the double header. Here again that cat in the A league is 1-5. Don't know the calc involved to get the Road Dog but was surprised it picked up both games in the double header.
There is a JJ Vis play but there have been very few of these in the A league and this is with Min. Total win/loss is 10-10 and last 21 days 0-1 so a pass for me.
Here are a few I really like with real good records. Take Phil, Mil, Ariz and SEA.
These are kind of scary as some going for a sweep and don't care for that though have no numbers to support. I have conflicting info on the Ariz game. The zen above lists it poorly but several other cats support it so a no play for me.
Again I don't look at lines and make my decision later. Also any thing you choose is your play not mine.
No totals.
With SO showing an opening number at CRIS of 8 and no change on the Oakland game, does that make waldo H a play even though it's not 1st or 2nd game? My understanding is that you would ordinarily pass because the line has been adjusted. Are you getting opening lines somewhere else that are contrary or can I depend on what I'm seeing on SO as far as adjustments?
Pops, I would not be able to post what CTP is coming up with as my plays because the formula I posted for everyone to see when I pulled up is not what he is using. I'm honored that you've named a system after me, but I can't take credit for the "JJ Home" plays, good or bad. I have asked CTP to send me an explanation of the changes he made. He did send me the Excel formula and I thanked him for that, but I was hoping to get them in English so that I could do the calculations by hand if need be. No response on that request as of this morning. The one change I am
aware of is that he's using home and away ERAs where I was using overall. He has obviously made other changes because even using the ERA change, I come up with 4 plays today, not just Minnesota. They are:
Cincinnati
St. Louis
NY Mets
Minnesota
I publicly thanked CTP for his help with trying to educate me, but we are worlds apart and I think he's just frustrated with me and my questions. I would still like to know how "my" plays are being calculated now. Seems like a reasonable request to grant the original architect.
jb 20 came up with the idea and the concept, so that is why i gave him credit for it way back in the cbb 2nd half which became so success full, just a pc came up with the dog plays this year. the concept it much more important that coming up with the calc to get there.. so there 4 you get the credit. now all you and your pizza guy is need to do is just the simple calc, just have him reverse engineer them. ctp has tried many many times w/o success and neither of us have any free time. i did offer my services to do so as well
this is the exact form that i have in the master which comes up with your Plays.....=IF(ISERROR(DS1474),"",IF(AND(L1474<S1474,CY1474<CZ1474,DA1474<2.1,DN1474>DO1474,FS1474<FT1474,Z1474>=-141),"HOME",""))&IF(ISERROR(DS1474),"",IF(AND(S1474<L1474,CZ1474<CY1474,DO1474>DN1474,FT1474<FS1474,AD1474>=-141),"VIS","")) this is not your prob. your prob was that you cant do a simple copy and paste from the pdws (the special one that we are currently using (which ctp created especially for you and had me use it in lieu of the one i was using) so that you would be able to create the master for the current day and come up with them yourself. so here it is.. the rest is up to you and pizza man
Forget Excel. Forget computers. Forget reverse engineering. What I am asking for is the same thing I delivered. A list of the steps required (in English) that can easily be followed by anyone with a pencil and paper and the necessary stats. I'm busy too. I'm not asking for a tutorial, just a simple list. It took me all of 3 minutes to write out the filters and post them. Don't make this sound more complicated than that.
Not a bad day and figure without looking the week was profitable.
Good luck to all in what ever you do.
All of this it based strictly on the Pops master. Takes some effort but it is all there. I do some other things based on line moves but way too much work and generally not around at the last minute to see where they are. Don't have a real good feel for these. Takes a lot of effort to keep on top but worth doing in my opinion.
JJ-I hate to tell you this but the last form I gave you in rev D is the same one Pops is using to date. It uses a 30 day scoring avg of which you wanted year to date. That scoring avg for Det yesterday was 4.067 and 4.158 for Tor. If you have anything dif than that you have the source of your problem. How you fix it is all yours.
