are you asking about prop bets or o/u bets.. paying anything for an hook on an under is useless and has no value. infact lets say i'm betting eddings under on a 1st game of a series and the OL number is 8.5 -110 i'll bet the under 8 plus 105 (anything with a plus value) vs paying anything to get the hook. the key is lose amount. i would rather push that risk the extra money for the hook on an under. over is a diff story though
Tidbits for Sat via my eyes.
You have a Home Dog with Ariz. Word of caution as the over all record is still good the last 21 shows this as 3-8.
Road Dog with Atl this has a good over all record since May 1 at 26-14 but last 21 is 2-2 so might be worth a shot.
You have a Home Ply via JJ with the Cubs and 2 Visitor Plays via JJ with Cincy and SFO. These plays don't have a great over all track record but last 21 lights out. Here you have the opp of the Home Dog just like yesterday. Record for SFO is far superior.
You have a home play on the Yankees. This play has held up since day 1 and is still going strong. Winner last year as well. Don't know the lines so may be high.
There is an under play on TEX which is 15-27 O to U.
To finish it out a play on Tex which is hot.
I do not look at the lines just read the plays and make my decision later. These all come directly off the master with a little creative thinking. I hope they hold up to past performance.
Anything you chose is your play not mine.
You have a Home Dog with Ariz. Word of caution as the over all record is still good the last 21 shows this as 3-8.
Road Dog with Atl this has a good over all record since May 1 at 26-14 but last 21 is 2-2 so might be worth a shot.
You have a Home Ply via JJ with the Cubs and 2 Visitor Plays via JJ with Cincy and SFO. These plays don't have a great over all track record but last 21 lights out. Here you have the opp of the Home Dog just like yesterday. Record for SFO is far superior.
You have a home play on the Yankees. This play has held up since day 1 and is still going strong. Winner last year as well. Don't know the lines so may be high.
There is an under play on TEX which is 15-27 O to U.
To finish it out a play on Tex which is hot.
I do not look at the lines just read the plays and make my decision later. These all come directly off the master with a little creative thinking. I hope they hold up to past performance.
Anything you chose is your play not mine.
all pitching numbers come directly from the link below and are automatically uploaded into the master pdws daily http://www.statfox.com/mlb/pitcherreport.asp?sortby=pitcher
Hmm...sorry I don't quite understand.
Let's say I found a sharp book that has Team X over 9 hits -105
Now I find a square book that has Team X over 7.5 hits -115
I'm pretty sure there's some value in hammering the square line since for an extra 10 cents of juice I get a free 1.5 hits. But HOW MUCH value? How do I calculate that?
If I don't know how much value I'm getting then I don't know how much to bet, even though I know the square line is +EV
right now i cant find any real value in the cons home and cons vis games etc and neither can any of my guys. unless someone has found something there i plan to drop these from the master and pdws and any further tracking. so let it be know or they are out of here (this is not the 1st and game of a series that i use for ump etc) but is for total cons games and home and on the road
k. let me me know. ctp is seing if he can fix my fuck up w/o spending to much time. it's one of those calc fields for both that i can just drag to the next day and i forget to do it correctly on some day's so it get's out of sync. if he can fix it easy he will do but let me know. if anything imporves that it would be worth it tks
2010 so far
PC ROAD DOG with current formula 18-25 +2,160
PC ROAD DOG if we tweak the formula so that we only play if the cons road games is 5 or less 12-12 +1,860
Not sure what it would have done in 2009 since we don't have the con road games info.
So not sure if we should tweak it or not. Slightly less profit if we do; however doing so would reduce the variance. What do you guys think?
