2009 Tennis Picks

[rhinooooo]

Got very lucky with that Ljubicic under. Should be down about 5 units, but instead only over a unit. Huge upset that Oscar wins.

Early ones for tomorrow, have a feeling the odds will go down.

S Stakhovsky o J Isner @ 2.75 @ Will Hill (1 unit)
A Montanes o S Koubek @ 2.62 @ Will Hill (1 unit)
F Gil o M Zverev @ 2.37 @ Skybet (1 unit)

 

[CAP-IT-OFF]

Good luck today,

 

[rhinooooo]

Thanks Cap-It. Despite the losing day, I actually did have some very good luck.

]ATP Miami:
A Calleri o C Rochus @ 2.25 @ Stan James (1 unit) W +1.25
Y Bhambri o D Junquiera @ 3.05 @ Pinnacle (1 unit) L -1
R Mello o T Dent @ 3.35 @ Pinnacle (1 unit) L -1
I Ljubicic vs. Oscar Hernandez - UNDER 19.5 GAMES @ 1.87 @ Pinnacle (3 units) L -3
I Ljubicic vs. O Hernandez - UNDER 20.5 GAMES @ 1.83 @ Will Hill (2 units) W +1.66
F Dancevic o P Kohlschreiber @ 3.40 @ Betfair (1 unit) W +2.40
F Serra o J Benneteau @ 2.60 @ Betfair (1 unit) L -1

3-4 (-0.69)
Tennis Record: 81-121-5 (+12.88)
In-Play Record: 4-1 (+6.87)

A loss for today, but it feels like a win. Could very well have been a major loss due to Ljubicic's loss to Hernandez, but somehow it went under 20.5 games. Good wins for Calleri and Dancevic. Mello was destroyed, Bhambri put up a decent fight, and Serra was just a mug.

Pending:
G Canas o I Kunitsyn @ 2.62 @ Skybet (1 unit)
S Stakhovsky o J Isner @ 2.75 @ Will Hill (1 unit)
A Montanes o S Koubek @ 2.62 @ Will Hill (1 unit)
F Gil o M Zverev @ 2.37 @ Skybet (1 unit)

 

[rhinooooo]

Adding:
N Massu o R Sweeting @ 2.60 @ Betfair (1 unit)
J Acasuso o J Tipsarevic @ 2.63 @ Stan James (1 unit)

Taking Acasuso at Stan James, as they void retirements. He was apparently sick last week like alot of the players. Retired in a challenger match.

 

[rhinooooo]

Adding an early one for tomorrow:
M Russell o G Monfils @ 5.29 @ Expekt (1 unit)

Match-up wise this isn't really in Russell's favour. Nonetheless, he's in decent form, has a few matches under his belt, and more importantly Gael only arrived in Miami yesterday. Very weird. He's not got a great record here, seems to always be suffering from something, so I'm hoping maybe he's not 100%. Have taken this at a 1 ball book.

 

[rhinooooo]

G Canas o I Kunitsyn @ 2.62 @ Skybet (1 unit) L -1
S Stakhovsky o J Isner @ 2.75 @ Will Hill (1 unit) L -1
A Montanes o S Koubek @ 2.62 @ Will Hill (1 unit) W +1.62
F Gil o M Zverev @ 2.37 @ Skybet (1 unit) +1.37
N Massu o R Sweeting @ 2.60 @ Betfair (1 unit) W +1.60
J Acasuso o J Tipsarevic @ 2.63 @ Stan James (1 unit) L -1

3-3 (+1.59)
Tennis Record: 84-124-5 (+14.47)

Canas loses a tight 3 setter. He should probably retire after such a bad loss. Isner oned Stakhovsky. Monty won easy. Gil did the job. Massu nearly choked. Chucho took it to 3 sets but wasn't good enough.

 

[rhinooooo]

M Russell o G Monfils @ 5.29 @ Expekt (1 unit)

Adding:
R Kendrick o R Soderling @ 4.4 @ Betfair (1 unit)
M Safin vs. O Hernandez - UNDER 21 GAMES @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle (3 units)

 

[rhinooooo]

M Youzhny o T Berdych @ 2.24 @ Betfair (1 unit)
M Kukushkin o D Tursunov @ 3 @ Bet365 (1 unit)

Early one for tomorrow
F Gil o I Karlovic @ 2.87 @ Bet365 (1 unit)

 

[rhinooooo]

M Russell o G Monfils @ 5.29 @ Expekt (1 unit) L -1
R Kendrick o R Soderling @ 4.4 @ Betfair (1 unit) W +3.4
M Safin vs. O Hernandez - UNDER 21 GAMES @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle (3 units) L -3
M Youzhny o T Berdych @ 2.24 @ Betfair (1 unit) L -1
M Kukushkin o D Tursunov @ 3 @ Bet365 (1 unit) L -1

1-4 (-2.6)
Tennis Record: 85-128-5 (+11.87)

Back and forth and back and forth and back and forth and back we go...

Poor staking and a bit of bad luck. Kendrick comes through with ease. Monfils wins in 3, and deserves it though Russell put in a great fight. Poor call in putting 3 units on the Safin under. Youzhny was up a break at 4-3 in the 3rd. Lost the next 3 games to lose. Kukushkin was up a break 3-1 in the 3rd. Lost the next 5 games. :lol: Looks like I'm going to have to start avoiding the matches featuring Russians.

Pending:
F Gil o I Karlovic @ 2.87 @ Bet365 (1 unit)

 

[rhinooooo]

F Gil o I Karlovic @ 2.87 @ Bet365 (1 unit) W +1.87

Tennis Record: 86-128-5 (+13.74)
In-Play Record: 4-1 (+6.87)

 

[rhinooooo]

D Tursunov +5 games o A Roddick @ 1.83 @ SportingBet (1.25 unit)

Bit of a big line here. Dima has a big serve, and tough groundies. If he shows up at a decent level, he should cover. Who the fuck knows if he will.

 

[rhinooooo]

N Kiefer +5.5 games o R Federer @ 1.90 @ BoyleSports (1 unit)

 

[rhinooooo]

Couple more:
T Robredo 2-0 o T Dent @ 2 @ SkyBet (1 unit)
R Kendrick vs. JW Tsonga - OVER 19.5 GAMES @ 1.83 @ Ladbrokes (1 unit)

 

[rhinooooo]

D Tursunov +5 games o A Roddick @ 1.83 @ SportingBet (1.25 unit) PUSH
N Kiefer +5.5 games o R Federer @ 1.90 @ BoyleSports (1 unit) L -1
T Robredo 2-0 o T Dent @ 2 @ SkyBet (1 unit) L -1
R Kendrick vs. JW Tsonga - OVER 19.5 GAMES @ 1.83 @ Ladbrokes (1 unit) W +0.83

1-2-1 (-1.17)
Tennis Record: 87-130-6 (+12.57)

Tsonga over comes in easily. Bad line from Ladbrokes. Robredo 2-0 was a terrible play, and I underestimated Dent's fitness. Ordinarily he's a terrible matchup for Tommy, and he proved it with a really good performance. Kiefer collapses in the 2nd set. Roddick/Tursunov was good fun for Roddick being a prick, and Dima being his usual gutless scumbag self.

Roddick called the umpire 'Fucking blind', a 'fucking asshole', and 'fatass'. :lol:

No warning either. Gutless umpires.

 

[rhinooooo]

A Murray v N Massu - UNDER 19.5 GAMES @ 1.73 @ Will Hill (2 units)

 

[rhinooooo]

F Lopez o F Verdasco @ 4.3 @ Betfair (1 unit)

 

[rhinooooo]

A Murray v N Massu - UNDER 19.5 GAMES @ 1.73 @ Will Hill (2 units) L -2
F Lopez o F Verdasco @ 4.3 @ Betfair (1 unit) L -1

0-2 (-3)
Tennis Record: 87-132-6 (+9.57)


Unlucky with the Murray under seeing as he couldn't serve it out for the cover. Lalo loses in 3 sets but Nando looks to have dominated the match and deserved it.

 

[rhinooooo]

G Monfils o A Roddick @ 3.25 @ SportingBet (1 unit)

As much as I hate both these guys, and my inability to seemingly call a Roddick match right, I'll go with the value. This is a pretty big/surprising price for a guy whose beaten Roddick 3 times, and whose last loss to him was basically a choke. Gael was a 1.80 fave in their last match, on a slow hardcourt in Doha. He'd just beaten Rafa so his price was too short. No surprise at all if Gael has one of his mental breakdowns/lapses and loses the match, but it's a +EV bet.

 

[TheBrainiac]

Monfils looked dead against Safin and Marat was owning him until the epic choke from 2 breaks up in the deciding set and 2 matchpoints . Both are mugs but I wouldn't be surprised if Monfils is dead tired and with his attitude he can just gift this match .

 

[rhinooooo]

The guy is a faking piece of shit. He admitted he didn't have any strategy, he was just pushing the ball, hoping for errors. When his game is not firing, then he starts faking, starts looking for attention. I'm so used to this guys bullshit.

Against Roddick, no doubt he can fold, but he won't be up against aggressive tennis, he'll be able to approach the match with a clearer strategy. I hope so anyway. If not, hopefully the court gets hit by a missile. Couple of pathetic players on show today.