Trent...I was basically talking about the 2009 Penn State/Va Tech versions. I don't think either of them will be better than they were in 2008. But I still ranked VT where i did because of the conference they play in. If they played in the SEC they wouldn't have even made my top 25. Things will more than likely change this next year. I'm pretty impressed with NCST. I like who Miami has coming back. Paul Johnson will be a little more organized in his second year at GT. And something tells me that any Butch Davis team that he fields for here on out will be dangerous. And Florida State always has the athletes. Now if they just had a QB. And if any of their players can keep themselves out of trouble for one season they might win the conference. If I just had a nickel for every player that Bowden has suspended over the years....
I gave you my top ten for the beginning of the season. I might come on here later and give you my top ten for the end of the season. I think it might surprise a few people. I know it would look radically different than what is up there now. I agree with your assesment of the Big 11. However I'm betting that one of those 3 top tier teams (PSU, Iowa, OSU) are going to be displaced by MSU or Illinois.
Well GS, since i consider you a friend on this forum, i'm here to save you money, since you say you "bet" msu or illinois will displace iowa, psu, or oh st in the top 3, as i vehemently disagree. i was going to hold off on my previews, but i'll give you mich st today, and illinois tomorrow.
Anyone can tell you that mich st loses their qb and rb, who was their best player and center of the offense...i'm not breaking any news there. but one thing to keep in mind is that mich st has no replacement...other teams lose their starting rbs, but gave their backups playing time, but msu didn't. case in point: wisconsin backup clay had 155 carries, oh st backup herron had 89 (as well as pryor 139), iowa's hampton had 91, even penn st backup green had 105 (although they return the #1 rb in conference in royster).
mich st's top returning rusher: 26 carries!!!
now the QB will be decided between backup cousins and OU transfer nichol, and don't expect a starter to be announced any time soon. so in mid-august, while iowa, penn st, and oh st are settled with experienced, returning starters at the most important position, mich st will be splitting reps between these two in practice, while also working in a brand new rb with no experience. even illinois has their qb and rbs returning!!! (indiana, minny, and wisky also return their QB) throw in the fact that mich st loses their top 2 OL in 5th yr seniors martin and miller, who both started over 35 games, and there will be plenty of growing pains on offense that will probably last the season.
But here is the real reason, and why i faded mich st a lot from mid-season on, going 3-2 but winning the bigger of my plays against them. Let me preface this by saying that i played ON msu a lot in 2007, and even played on them week 1 vs cal (i got +6, they lost by 7):
Around mid-season i noticed that their stats were awful, yet they had a winning record. in other words, they weren't as good as their record indicated!! this held true, as they finished 6-2 in conference, yet were outscored 208-201!! but check these numbers out, which will probably surprise you:
mich st offensive rush yds per carry (ypc) national rank:
#100
think about that...100th in all of ncaa in ypc
big 10 rank: 10th
defensively, ypc national rank:
#76
big 10 rank: once again, 10th..!!
in an important category such as running the ball and stopping the run, those are horrible numbers, and more representational of a 3-9 team rather than a 9-3 team..!!
now, much like i said vtech was a 6-6 team "masquerading" as an 8-4 team, mich st was a 4-4 conference team "masquerading" as a 6-2 team. here's why:
Iowa (+7.5) @ mich st, 16-13 msu win
i put the spread in because in both instances i had the opponent, and since i covered both i want you to know that there's no bitterness, as i made money on these games.
in the 1st half, iowa fumbled @ mich st
13yd line, got int at mich st
4yd line, and fumbled at their own
12 yd line, resulting in a mich st FG. those are direct points off the board for iowa, and a free 3 pt gift for msu. then, in the 2nd half, iowa passed on an opportunity for a 44yd fg to go for it on 4th and 2 at mich st 27 yd line, which they failed to convert. But more importantly, with less than 2 minutes to go, even after ALL THAT, iowa still had a chance to tie or win. Facing a 4th and 1 at the mich st 21 yd line, ferentz elected to go for it rather than kick the game-tying 38 yd fg. Now i'm not blaming him, since shonn greene had 157 yds on over 5 ypc at this point, so picking up the one yard and trying for the win certainly seemed possible, but after getting stopped short of the 1st down the decision obviously looked like the wrong one. Bottom line: iowa gift-wrapped that victory, more an iowa "loss" than a mich st "win", and definitely an undeserving win.
Wisconsin (+4.5) @ mich st, 25-24 last second mich st win
btw-almost everyone had mich st in this game, which made it even more gratifying to come away with a winner ATS!!!
Wisconsin outgains msu
430-312, and an even more amazing
281-25 on the ground on a ridiculous
6 ypc!!! Badgers have
two 100-yd rushers, while holding ringer to 54 yds on
2.6 ypc. anyone who saw this game knows wisconsin dominated, and bielema actually got a lot of flak after this game for time management and other questionable decisions, as well as committing 12 penalties for 121 yds. Badgers never trailed and led by 11 pts in the 4th qtr yet somehow lost this game..!! they actually won the game, as a 3rd and 1 20-yd run for a 1st down with 2 minutes remaining would have let wisconsin run out the clock, but the center was called for a holding penalty on the play...A holding penalty on the center on a 3rd and 1 running play...!!! After the 10 yd penalty, another penalty eventually forced wisconsin to punt, and mich st came down and kicked the winning fg w/ :07 left. Again, a case of wisky "losing" rather than mich st "winning".
on the flip side, there weren't any conference losses that should have been wins, as they were blown out by ohio st at home
45-7 and at penn st
49-18 in a game that wasn't even that close (i had psu -16 and i usually don't lay that type of number but knew the gap between these teams was huge!!)
Now mich st is actually the type of team i like to play, as they are non-public, not flashy, well coached, and fundamentally sound and usually play a conservative style, which lends to close games. But they overacheived last year in going 6-2 in conference, and their personnel losses are more severe than that for penn st, iowa, and ohio st. I have great respect for dantonio, so i think he might be able to get them to make a "lateral" move rather than going down...but i mean "lateral" as to the 4-4 conference record that they should have gone, not the 6-2 record that they luckily achieved. Now one thing going for them is their road schedule is very easy (wisky, illinois, minny, purdue) and they don't face oh st this year (though they also don't face indiana). But they are clearly behind the top 3 imo, and it's not really close. (naturally, this is based on darryl clark, ricky stanzi, and terrelle pryor staying healthy)
Do what you want with your money, but i'm just trying to help..!!
:toast:
tmrw i'll break down illinois, the "head-case" of the conference
