2008-09 NBA preseason thread...

[brewers7]

Again, 2 plays kinda jumping out...NY and Philly...

I cannot see Boston taking the preseason too seriously of a championship year, and Philly should be raring to go with Elton Brand aboard...game is also at a neutral site...I won't bet it only because Philly started slow last preseason (0-4 SU & ATS)...Although my gut tells me they will be quicker out of the gate this time around...

I would think that MILW should bounce back a bit off a 33% shooting game last time out...

Knicks start a new era under Coach Mark D'Antoni and Toronto is going back-to-back...I would think the Toronto regulars would play less minutes tonight...

So I will play the New York Knicks +6.5, $107 to win $100...

That's the only bet...All picks are here:

#1 NY +6.5
#2 Phi +6
#3 Milw +8.5
#4 OKC +6
#5 Ind +2
#6 Char +6
#7 Was +6
#8 Atl +4
#9 GS +7

 

[cjv_11]

on it brewers, lets cash!!

 

[JakeT.]

Thanks brewers. I don't know anything about preseason NBA so I figured I'd look through all the threads and if someone made a good deal of sense I'd look further into the pick. I liked your reasoning, checked it out further and liked it still, so I bet on it. Anyway, nice winner. Thanks for the reasoning.

 

[brewers7]

Thanks brewers. I don't know anything about preseason NBA so I figured I'd look through all the threads and if someone made a good deal of sense I'd look further into the pick. I liked your reasoning, checked it out further and liked it still, so I bet on it. Anyway, nice winner. Thanks for the reasoning.

No problem...

There won't be a lot of reasoning in the preseason, quite frankly, as the goal every day is to pick the best underdog play on the board, look at a couple of "key" factors and if the play is strong enough to warrant a bet, then I'll bet it, if not, I'll pass...There is no reason to go hog-wild with bets in the preseason...I won't be betting every day, I can already tell you that as I have only bet 2 of the 4 days so far...

People who know me know that I will provide more reasoning, insight and angles for the regular season plays...I may have to shortnen some write-ups this year due to time constraints, but we'll see...

 

[Geaux-tigers]

Just a suggestion man, if your issue with posting constantly is the cold streak, then post your thoughts on the card, but leave out the action plays, do the investment ones only as tracked plays. Might keep you around throughout.

 

[gabbana]

great choice last night steve..

 

[brewers7]

Just a suggestion man, if your issue with posting constantly is the cold streak, then post your thoughts on the card, but leave out the action plays, do the investment ones only as tracked plays. Might keep you around throughout.

That's a good idea and it also is one of the things I was thinking about doing...When I was doing this full-time, I used to post a write-up for every game on the board...Won't have time for that when the busy season hits, but I may just have 2 separate categories to track, so people don't go hog-wild with my daily plays as I remember getting 25,000+ views a week here 2 years ago...

great choice last night steve..

Thank you, you to...Well, I saw your thread later in the night and saw you and I were on the same wavelength as you bet 2 of the games that were my top 2 picks...So hey, nice job yourself, keep up the good work...


Preseason bets record: 2-0, +$200
Picks record: 11-6-1

Just a note, if you bet all the underdogs this preseason, you'd be 12-5-1...

Dallas at Chicago -- This is the only game that more or less jumps out at me as I like Chicago in this spot...Again, the Bulls are going to want to establish a winning mentality in the preseason after a bad season and Dallas, well, is a veteran team that will use the preseason to prepare for the regular season, but are they going to play hard in the preseason?...Last year, Dallas was 0-4 ATS in Away and/or neutral site games in the preseason...As far as the total goes, CHI was 6-0-1 to the Under in the preseason last year...I like Chicago here...

San Antonio at Houston -- Not a lot to talk about here...probably the Under is the obvious play...HOU won't over-extend Yao or McGrady and SA was 2-4 ATS in the preseason last year and neither team is going to be too excited for preseason games, even with this one, despite the rivalry...

Phoenix at Utah -- This looks a bit trappish, giving PHOE this many in a preseason game...Phoenix beat them by 22 last preseason and PHOE was 6-2 to the Over last preseason...But I have no opinion here, I have the preseason philosophy that "when in doubt, take the underdog"...

LA Clippers vs LA Lakers -- Clips beat the Lake-Show by 16 last preseason at Staples and it went Over...Really no opinion here...Neutral site...As I said, any preseason DOG +5 or more is an automatic pick...

Picks:

#1 Chi -1.5
#2 SA +3
#3 LAC +5.5
#4 Phoe +6.5

I am debating a bet on the Bulls...I have won 3 straight #1 picks, betting 2 of them, so I guess I wonder what the odds are of winning 4 straight...I guess I can quick check my records for the last 4 preseaons and see how many times I won 4 straight #1 preseason picks...

 

[brewers7]

Ok, I'll take a shot with Chicago tonight...I just noticed that they were 4-0 SU & ATS last preseason at Home, including an 8-point win over Dallas...

A bit riksy, perhaps, as I just checked my preseason records for the last 4 seasons and found that I did not win four #1 picks in a row in 2007 (won 3 in a row twice), but i did win 6 straight and 4 straight in 2006 and finished the preseason winning 3 straight, and in fact, my posted preseason bets record at theRX in 2006 was 9-3-1, which can be verified here:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=414375

And I did not win four #1 picks in a row in 2005 or or 2004...

But hey, the game kinda junped out at me a bit, so I may as well take a shot...

Chicago Bulls -1.5, $105 to win $100...

 

[brewers7]

Preseason, 2-1, +$95

Going to take the Knicks tonight...D'Antoni will want to get a win soon here in the preseason...NY beat Philly twice in the preseason last year...D'Antoni played just 10 guys against Toronto and played 4 starters more than 29 minutes each...Hopefully he does that again tonight...

N.Y. Knicks +5, $106 to win $100...

The underdogs are 16-6-1 ATS this preseason...That should turn a little bit at some point...

All picks:

#1 NY +5
#2 NO +1
#3 OKC +5
#4 Min +4
#5 Char +3
#6 Det -3.5
#7 Ind +1.5
#8 Milw +4
#9 Port -1
#10 Cle +6.5

 

[brewers7]

Preseason bets: 3-1, +$195
All picks: 20-12-1

All underdogs are also now 20-12-1 this preseason after a 4-6 night last night...

No bets tonight, but the TNT game is interesting, the first outdoor game in the NBA since 1972, when the Suns beat MILW 116-103 in Puerto Rico in the preseason...Denver didn't play any starter over 23 minutes last night, and Karl played 15 or 16 guys, so they will be fine for tonight and I see this game going Over the total...PHOE picked up the pace a little bit in their 2nd preseason game after a very, very slow-paced 1st preseason game...No Barbaso (sickness in family) and probably no Amare, but I still think the pace will be quicker as I am reading where the players are starting to get used to Coach Terry Porter's new system, so the points should start to flow soon with this team...

No bets tonight, though, but that is my top total...Sides picks are like so:

#1 Hou
#2 OKC
#3 Milw
#4 Den

 

[brewers7]

Preseason bets: 3-1, +$195
All picks: 22-14-1
#1 picks: 5-2

All underdogs are also now 22-14-1 this preseason after going 6-8 the last 2 days...

No bets today, but I may regret not betting Miami...They have played twice and lost 2 overtime games...They are playing the Nets again in London...Vince Carter may not play today (tight hamstring), and to be frank, why would they play him at all in the preseason if he is even remotely questionable?...

Picks are:

#1 Mia -2.5
#2 Phi +4.5
#3 Sac +7.5
#4 Utah +3

 

[brewers7]

Preseason bets: 3-1, +$195
All picks: 25-15-1
#1 picks: 5-3

All underdogs are now 26-14-1 this preseason...

I am tempted to make a bet or 2 tonight, but will pass...I don't see Charlotte or Oklahoma City getting killed every preseason game and I think both are good plays tonight...Oklahoma City's game is listed on their schedule as an Away game, although books are listing them as the home team...I guess it's because the game is in Tulsa, OK...The Rockets are going back-to-back after losing to Boston yesterday afternoon...The only reason I do not bet both of them is because they have been so bad thus far in the preseason...I kinda figure that one of them may lay an egg, which means the odds are fairly strong that I'll lose juice tonight, so tht's why I am passing...

My picks (lines at 5dimes):

#1 Char +6.5
#2 OKC +6
#3 Memp -2.5

 

[brewers7]

Preseason bets: 3-1, +$195
All picks: 28-15-1
#1 picks: 6-3

All underdogs are now 28-15-1 this preseason...

After seeing that New Orleans score today, I think today is the day the FAVs will break out a bit...I picked 2 FAVs in my top 3 for tonight's games, which is rare for me in the preseason...CLE is a bit worrisome because they were 1-6 (SU & ATS) in the preseason last year, so who knows how motivated they actually are...The Knicks have definitely looked motivated so far with their new coach and I expect that to continue (plus, they beat Philly twice in the 2007 preseason)...I also expect the Bulls to get their first preseason win, much like Oklahoma City did last night...OK City is playing on the back end of a back-to-back tonight after beating Houston in Tulsa, so I like the Clips as they have a "refreshed" look so far with Baron Davis and Marcus Camby on board this season...

I will pass on bets tonight again, but picks are as follows:

#1 LAC +2.5
#2 NY -2
#3 Chi -4
#4 SA +4.5
#5 Cle +1.5

 

[Feri]

Now I see it was worth opening the NBA section ...


Cheers Steve & really nice to see you again! :toast:


Looking forward to the season!



Btw I see you got the Spurs to cover tonight... BOL with plays!

 

[brewers7]

Btw I see you got the Spurs to cover tonight... BOL with plays!

No bets tonight, sir, but good to see you again...

Those are just my picks for the night, which I do track, but I am not putting real money on these picks tonight...

GL this season...

 

[fokam]

Hi B!
You doing great job I am following your picks. Do you have over/under up to now?

 

[brewers7]

Hi B!
You doing great job I am following your picks. Do you have over/under up to now?

26-18 to the under for all totals coming into tonight...

I have not officially picked any totals this preseason but am looking at a few here and there...

 

[fokam]

Not a nice card today

 

[brewers7]

You're right, horrible card, IMO...

Preseason bets: 3-1, +$195
All picks: 30-19-1
#1 picks: 7-3

All underdogs are now 32-17-1 this preseason...

Dogs still hot...

Unders are 31-19 this preseason...

Busy day and I looked at the board and didn't see anything at all I liked...Just a bad board, IMO, but my picks with absolutely no bets today are here:

#1 Sac -2
#2 Phoe Pk
#3 Den -2
#4 Memp +1.5
#5 Ind +3.5

LAC on back-end of a back-to-back, but Camby and davis didn't play last night, so they may go today...Still taking Sac-town...Phoe lost to ATL already this preseason, so I'm picking PHOE this time around...

 

[brewers7]

Preseason bets: 3-1, +$195
All picks: 32-22-1
#1 picks: 7-4

All underdogs are now 36-18-1 this preseason...

Dogs still cleaning up...

Unders are 33-23 this preseason...

I am playing it conservative with the bets this preseason...I like the SA/Cle under and Boston tonight, but will pass on the bets for one more night...SA/Cle has been an almost automatic under in the regular season in recent years...I like Boston only because NJ is returning from Europe and this is their first game since coming back...

All picks (with no bets) are here:

#1 Bos -2.5
#2 Min +5
#3 SA +1.5
#4 Det -3.5