2-0 For Championship Sunday!! Super Bowl WINNER Inside!!!

[Pam]

Enjoy the dialogue..many good points. I have NE in the futures so need them to win the game but think line is too high..presently here in Vegas most stores have NE-7 at -120....pretty good jump considering game opened at NE-7 -105.

I need to edge back so will take Eagles +7 EV and perhaps get lucky and middle the game. One point that I think has not been mentioned is lost of Philly TE Lewis..I think this will hurt them but not enough to stay within the number. I have discounted Owens as I do not think he will play and if he does will be pretty much ineffective (like Moss with Minny after injury.)

By the way, I am not and never have been a sports fan that has a favorite team that he/she roots for. I root for the team I bet on and just enjoy the game of football being played at its highest level. I do like to view the comments of a homer fan that has a complete understanding of how his team functions and gives insight as to the merits of his team winning/losing any particular week.This has been very helpful to me in capping games...very easy to recognize the astute fan vs the fanatic.So I am hoping for a middle but would prefer NE winning the game as they have been good to me this year with the help of an sharp NE fan that posts on another site...also futures bet is at 4-1 but will bet enough on Philly with the points to ensure some bucks..as much as I have been on NE all year I feel Philly has a good chance to win game outright..had Carolina LY and really think -7 is too high especially laying -120.

Pamarty:

 

[Grogan]

Pam.....good post & good call on Lewis. He was impressive against Atlanta and looks like a BIG loss for Philly. I would really advise you not to middle here--I don't see the Eagles scoring much here at all.

Point I've been meaning to make about the Super Bowl last year--Carolina was able to stay close due to the scoring explosion in the 4th quarter, when the Pats secondary got decimated by injuries--Harrison & Wilson both went down, Delhomme caught fire, and they put up points. Fluky, and should be thrown out.

Also, an encouraging aspect to the line & public betting on the Pats (which has been bothering me a bit). A buddy tells me that a LOT of "smart" money is going to the Eagles, which helps explain why the line isn't moving off 7, and also making it less likely that the House is being set up to get beat, which off course doesn't happen much. This is reassuring to me, because knowing first hand some of these guys who lay the "smart" money.......believe me, I lot of times they ain't that smart.

 

[sportsbet]

Lewis was a ghost most of the year...McNabb said in his TV show on CBS 3 when asked who would have a big game in the NFC Championship "Chad Lewis" and Beasley then said "Well you're the one that would be getting him the ball so you would know." Childress said they would go to Lewis in key situations because he expected Atlanta to forget about him. They did.

He's a loss because he's a veteran and our best tight end but don't think LJ Smith isn't a capable replacement. LJ knows the system as well as Chad does and I expect him to get the ball in some key spots.

We're going to win this thing! :toast:

sb

 

[sportsbet]

Carolina was able to stay close due to the scoring explosion in the 4th quarter, when the Pats secondary got decimated by injuries--Harrison & Wilson both went down, Delhomme caught fire, and they put up points. Fluky, and should be thrown out.

Kind of like in the NFC Championship Game without Westbrook and with McNabb's fractured ribs and bum ankle. Decimated by injuries...fluky, and should be thrown out.

:toast:
sb

 

[Polaris]

Kind of like in the NFC Championship Game without Westbrook and with McNabb's fractured ribs and bum ankle. Decimated by injuries...

The past three years, the team that has beat the Eagles won the Superbowl twice, and that third team lost the Superbowl on the last play of the game FG.

This Eagles team is built for the playoffs. The Patriots aren't super-man. Brady is good, but he just stands there like an easy target. If Philly can blitz and sack moblie QBs like Vik & Culpepper, they're gonna get to a pylon like Brady.

 

[Grogan]

Sportsbet....Except nobody was talking about that game, you delusional Philly Homer Schill!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry, just had to get that off my chest. Carry on.

Polaris, not sure what you mean, only one NFC Super Bowl winner the last 3 years....

 

[Polaris]

Polaris, not sure what you mean, only one NFC Super Bowl winner the last 3 years....

Oh yeah ... you're right ... my mistake sorry! The Rams lost in their 2nd superbowl appearance.

But I still think the QB angle is one that could favour Philly.

These are the two best blitzing teams in the NFL. From the Colts games, Freeney was able to get close to Brady all day it seemed. And the Eagles are better up front than the Colts are. I don't think Corey Dillion power running will win the Superbowl, the pass has to win for the Pats.

Remember the Miami game on Monday night football. John Madden said it best when he said that that Miami defense frustrates Brady. Play the coners tight, the safeties deep. I mean, I think Pilly has the personell on defense to do that too.

I still like Philly to cover and maybe win ... unless of course ... Mcnabb = McChoke.

 

[sportsbet]

Sportsbet....Except nobody was talking about that game, you delusional Philly Homer Schill!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry, just had to get that off my chest. Carry on.

Polaris, not sure what you mean, only one NFC Super Bowl winner the last 3 years....

Just thought I'd mention it Grogan!

sb

 

[Grogan]

I know, Sportsbet, just kiddin' ya.

A point I've been wanting to make, about the Super Bowl in general. You'll hear bettors say the Super Bowl is "just another game" for betting purposes, just like all the other opportunities throughout the year. You'll hear, "wow, this guy is so disciplined, a lot of times he doesn't bet on the Super Bowl at all." This is very interesting & all, except it's totally wrong.

The Super Bowl is NOT like other games, and should almost always be bet, and if handicapped thoroughly, should be won far more often than not. This is a game where teams tend to play as you expect them to....teams aren't looking ahead to something else, the two-week break magnifies coaching (a very predictable variable), and in general, differences between teams are magnified. This is a game to bet, and bet heavily.

(And this year, of course, New England is the play.)

 

[HawaiianWarrior+]

With C H U C K Y on the PATS..............

What more do i have to say people.....................

 

[TotalRecall]

Grogan _ I agree the the superbowl should be ALWAYS bet. But I dont agree that the team that covers in the playoffs and especially the SB can be divulged through handicapping. Otherwise INDY would have run through us like a freight train! No- its the intangibles that win in the Superbowl. Heart, will, courage ,(havnt heard it mentioned but Brady had a temp of 103* the NIGHT before the PIT game.) He looked like sh*t during the post game stuff. Now how bad do you think he wants to win this SuperBowl people!!!. Bet the team that never stops kissing your ass you with kindness in the press, and then strangles the life out of you on the field. Brady is a cold blooded killer. DO NOT bet against this man. Thats all you have to know..............

 

[sportsbet]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=587 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom><TD>Eagles' Rise Of The Defense </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=587 bgColor=#cccccc border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=587 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><!-- begins paragraph --><TD>

January 27, 2005
By DAVE SPADARO

The season began with a lot of new faces in new places and questions that only time would answer. How would Jevon Kearse fit in along the defensive line? Was Dhani Jones the right fit at SAM linebacker? And what about those young cornerbacks?

Well, as the Eagles prepare for Super Bowl XXXIX, the defense is no longer a question mark. It is as strong as it has ever been.

"I felt that every week we were coming more and more together," said Jones, signed as an unrestricted free agent. "It was just a matter of getting everybody on the same page."

<TABLE cellSpacing=5 cellPadding=0 width=201 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=V1>FS Brian Dawkins and LB Jeremiah Trotter celebrate </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>And getting everybody in the right position. One of the key moves was inserting Jeremiah Trotter into the starting lineup for the November 7 game against Dallas. With Trotter in the middle and Mark Simoneau at WILL, the Eagles improved dramatically in the second half of the season against the run.

That move, combined with the continued fine play from the secondary, shored up the back seven.

Another key was the improvement and good health up front. Hollis Thomas and Sam Rayburn pushed Corey Simon and Darwin Walker, both of whom played very well down the stretch. Both Simon and Walker had nagging injuries early in the season, and that limited their play.

But both Simon and Walker -- along with Thomas and Rayburn -- came on strong in the second half of the year.

By the end of the regular season, the defense was complete -- a good pass rush up front, a complete understanding of the blitzing concepts, a young, fast and deep secondary.

In the playoffs, the D has taken it up a notch.

"We have been like hungry dogs out there," said Walker.

First came the go-get-him approach against Minnesota quarterback Daunte Culpepper. The Eagles covered the deep passing game the Vikings like so much -- making Randy Moss a non-factor -- and Minnesota was grounded in a 27-13 Eagles win.

On Sunday, of course, the Eagles did a brilliant job against Michael Vick and a powerful Falcons running game. Kearse moved from left end to the right side, and Derrick Burgess slid into his more natural left end position.

The result? Burgess had a pair of sacks, Kearse had one and the Eagles stuffed the Falcons.

So here they are. The defense has led the way in many respects.

And Johnson knows there are very specific reasons why the defense has improved.

"The best thing about our defense right now is we're kind of plugged into who's playing what position except for the weak side linebacker (where either Simoneau or Keith Adams will start in the Super Bowl)," said Johnson. "Trotter has brought some physical presence to us. Our tackles are healthier; they're playing much better. I have great confidence whether Sam Rayburn is in there or Hollis or Walker or Simon. We're very healthy inside which is nice. Now with our ends, (Jerome) McDougle and playing Hugh (Douglas) a little bit.

<TABLE cellSpacing=5 cellPadding=0 width=201 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=V1>LB Keith Adams </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>"The best thing we are right now is we're healthy, we're rotating guys and we're getting good production out of the guys we're rotating. The secondary has been the same all year but that's the difference, Trotter and our defensive line staying healthy. That's been the biggest difference all year."

If defense wins championships, the Eagles have a real chance. This defense is tough to beat.

Does a Super Bowl win mean the defense will get the respect it deserves? Ike Reese already thinks the NFL knows about the Eagles D.

"I think we get a lot of respect on the defensive side of the ball because we have playmakers here," said Reese. "Three-fourths of the secondary is going to the Pro Bowl. Jeremiah is going. I thought Jevon should have gone so we have playmakers on the defensive side of the ball.

"Our team has been identified with defense for years and years. Coach Johnson gets a lot of respect throughout the league for some of the things he's able to do and the players on the defensive side of the ball get respect also.

"We're not getting the respect that the 1985 Chicago Bears or the 2002 Baltimore Ravens got but I think teams take notice when the Philadelphia Eagle defense steps on the field. We're definitely a force that needs to be reckoned with."

</TD><!-- ends paragraph --></TR></TBODY></TABLE>sb

 

[Grogan]

Ah, I see.....the Philadelphia defense thinks the Philadelphia defense is really good. Wow, that changes everything. Very helpful. I'm all over the Eagles now.

 

[PatPatriot]

Cold, Hard Football Facts for the week of Jan. 26-Feb. 2, 2005



Last year the Cold, Hard Football Facts proved true an age-old football aphorism – “defense wins championships.”

We discovered that the Super Bowl team with the better scoring defense won 25 times in 33 games since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Following New England’s victory over Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII, teams with the stingier scoring defense are now a nifty 26-8 in post-merger Super Bowls and 28-10 in all Super Bowls.

The success of better defenses is a fat-filled morsel to munch on for stat-starved angry trolls when attempting to determine which team that has the upper hand in Super Bowl XXXIX. But this season it’s about as fulfilling as a single measly Munchkin. After all, New England and Philly enter Super Bowl XXXIX after regular seasons in which each team surrendered 260 points (16.2 PPG), good enough for second in the NFL behind Pittsburgh (251 points, or 15.7 PPG). It’s the first time in Super Bowl history that two teams enter the game with defenses that were equally stout.

Which defense is truly stronger? Other indicators don’t provide much help:

• Philly allows just 4.9 yards per play (t-6th in the NFL) to New England’s 5.0 yards per play (t-9th)

• New England allows 310.8 yards per game (9th) to Philly’s 319.7 yards per game (10th)

• New England is stronger against the run (98.2 yards per game vs. 118.9 yards per game)

• Philly is better against the pass (200.8 yards per game to 212.5 yards per game)

There is, of course, only one way to resolve the issue. We dipped our warm, fluffy, fact-filled donuts into a sugary coating of pigskin minutiae. We pulled out something sweet that the angry trolls can sink their teeth into and savor when analyzing Super Bowl XXXIX.

We went through each team’s schedule and looked at the quality of the offenses New England and Philly faced week after week. Here’s what we found:

• New England faced five top-10 scoring offenses – Indy, Buffalo (twice), Kansas City and Cincinnati

• Philly faced three top-10 scoring offenses – Minnesota, Green Bay and Cincinnati

• New England’s top offensive opponents were Indy (No. 1, 32.6 PPG) and Kansas City (No. 2, 30.2 PPG)

• Philly’s top offensive opponents were Green Bay (No. 5, 26.5 PPG) and Minnesota (No. 6, 25.3 PPG)

• New England’s average opponent ranked 16th in scoring offense

• Philly’s average opponent ranked 22nd in scoring offense

• New England played two games against the two best offenses in football

• Philly played three games against the two worst offenses in football (Washington twice and Chicago)

• New England’s opponents scored 5,583 points this season, or 21.8 points per game

• Philly’s opponents scored 5,041 points this season, or 19.8 points per game

New England, in other words, faced a much tougher gauntlet of offensive opponents this season. Philly, for example, held teams 3.6 points per game below their average scoring output. New England, meanwhile, held teams to 5.6 points per game below their average scoring output.

The Patriots, in other words, have been more impressive on defense when we consider the quality of the offenses they faced this season.

However, Philly's D played its worst game of the season in the regular-season finale when it sat many of its top players and surrendered 38 points to Cincinnati. Had Philly committed itself to winning the game, it's very likely it would have entered Super Bowl XXXIX with the better scoring defense -- and the weight of Super Bowl history on its side.

Here are the complete regular-season schedules for each team, with the average scoring output of their opponents and the points scored against each Super Bowl participant.

NEW ENGLAND

<TABLE width=512 border=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=100>Opponent</TD><TD width=100>PPG</TD><TD width=100>Rank</TD><TD width=100>Pts. vs. NE </TD><TD width=100>difference</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Indy</TD><TD>32.6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>-8.6</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Arizona</TD><TD>17.8</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>-5.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Buffalo</TD><TD>24.7</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>-7.7</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Miami</TD><TD>17.2</TD><TD>t-27</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>-7.2</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Seattle</TD><TD>23.2</TD><TD>t-11</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>-3.2</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>N.Y. Jets </TD><TD>20.8</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>-13.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Pittsburgh</TD><TD>23.2</TD><TD>t-11</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>+11.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>St. Louis </TD><TD>19.9</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>+2.1</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Buffalo</TD><TD>24.7</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>-18.7</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>KC</TD><TD>30.2</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>-11.2</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Baltimore</TD><TD>19.8</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>-16.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Cleveland</TD><TD>17.2</TD><TD>t-27</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>-2.2</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>23.4</TD><TD>t-4</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>+4.6</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Miami</TD><TD>17.2</TD><TD>t-27</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>+11.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>N.Y. Jets </TD><TD>20.8</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>-13.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>San Fran</TD><TD>16.2</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>-9.2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



PHILADELPHIA

<TABLE width=512 border=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=100>Opponent</TD><TD width=100>PPG</TD><TD width=100>Rank</TD><TD width=100>Pts. vs. Philly </TD><TD width=100>difference</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>N.Y. Giants </TD><TD>18.9</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>-1.9</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Minnesota</TD><TD>25.3</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>-9.3</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Detroit</TD><TD>18.5</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>-5.5</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Chicago</TD><TD>14.4</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>-5.4</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Carolina</TD><TD>22.2</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>-14.2</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Cleveland</TD><TD>17.2</TD><TD>t-27</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>+13.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Baltimore</TD><TD>19.8</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>-9.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Pittsburgh</TD><TD>23.2</TD><TD>t-11</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>+3.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dallas</TD><TD>18.3</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>+2.7</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Washington</TD><TD>15.0</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>-9.0</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>N.Y. Giants </TD><TD>18.9</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>-12.9</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Green Bay </TD><TD>26.5</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>-9.5</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Washington</TD><TD>15.0</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>-1</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dallas</TD><TD>18.3</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>-11.3</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>St. Louis </TD><TD>19.9</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>+0.1</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>23.4</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>+14.6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Grogan]

Thanks Patriot, some interesting stuff there.

I've noticed something from a lot of handicappers who are leaning toward the Eagles here--seems like there's a LOT of rationalization going on with the picks, and a lot of "I don't think they'll win, but I could see them covering" kind of thing (yes, Sportbet, I know you think Philly will win..... )

Point being, that if you're tying yourself into knots trying to justify a selection, you're probably straining yourself for no reason. I think a lot of this comes from the Patriots' narrow Super Bowl victory last year....the thinking goes, gee, the Pats barely won THAT, and Philly's better than Carolina was, so why not take the 7. This is a losing strategy. Of course the Patriots were the better team there, they're even better now, and a 4th quarter secondary collapse last year due to injuries that STILL didn't prevent a victory is a pretty damn thin premise to hang your hopes on this year.

Point is, if the Pats played the Eagles 10 times, the Pats win 9 of 'em. COULD this be #10--the game where the Eagles get a deflected intereception return for a touchdown, Corey Dillon fumbles twice, etc. etc., & they pull it out? Sure. But the play is on the team with the 90% probabilty to win, and cover. Don't overthink yourself into a fog only to be sitting there Sunday night wondering why the hell you talked yourself into taking Philadelphia.

 

[Grogan]

Watching Owens yesterday, I have to say I was pretty impressed. Yes, the guy's a completely shameless self-promoter and has been a real jerk many times in the past. But it looks as though he's got himself into position to contribute at what seems to be pretty much 100%.

As I've said before, I was surprised at how much he raised the Eagles' offense this year. Put it this way--without Owens, Philly would have almost literally no chance to win on Sunday. Their offense would do NOTHING. With him, they at least have a chance to make some plays. The Pats are still the clear pick here, but Owens puts the possibility of a cover into play, if the Eagles get the deflected interception for a TD, fumbles from Dillon & Co., etc. etc. etc. The guy's a special talent.

 

[sportsbet]

Grogan I said all along he'd play (hey I'm right about something once in awhile).

I think 6 or 7 receptions isn't out of the question. Do the Pats really believe he is as big a threat as he usually is on the field. I will be interested to see the Patriots defensive coverages all game long.

sb

 

[Grogan]

All else aside, you've gotta want to see everybody out there, particularly the impact players, which he is of course one.

I WISH IT WERE SUNDAY ALREADY

 

[ElIguana]

I have a theory......

Sportsbet's true identity: Terrell Owens!

 

[sportsbet]

Grogan I agree 100 percent! I would like the Pats to have Seymour at his best. We want to beat the best not the MASH unit.

Iggy :lolBIG:

Sing it with me: "T-O TO TO TO! T-O! T-O!"

sb