Grogan, I'm glad you are not offended by the "homer" reference. And you are absolutely correct about the 2 different types of homers.
The objective homer tries to look at both teams equally but can't quite get rid of the rose-colored glasses. Ironically, the objective homer will sometimes give his team less credit than they deserve in an attempt to atone for his own bias, as he is aware of the fact that he is a homer. The objective homer can have valuable insight as a person who follows every move his team makes very closely.
The psychotic homer would still back his team if all 22 starters got killed in a plane crash 2 days before the game. Psychotic homers are easy to spot because they make outrageous claims, such as "They will not get one first down on our D" or "Your quarterback won't know what train hit him" or "Bet the house on the ML, **** the points, we don't need no stinking points!" Just picture the old SNL skit of Da BEARSSS fans. "Ditka vs. God, final score, God 98, Ditka 97."
Furthermore, everyone knows the best cappers in the world hope to hit 60% of their plays and that anything can happen in any one game. An objective homer realizes this and talks about trends, value and favorable situations that point toward giving one team a slight advantage. One should raise an eyebrow anytime someone makes claims of guaranteed blowouts, domination, and ass-whoopins.
But again, this is JUST MY OPINION, and I have been wrong many times before.
The objective homer tries to look at both teams equally but can't quite get rid of the rose-colored glasses. Ironically, the objective homer will sometimes give his team less credit than they deserve in an attempt to atone for his own bias, as he is aware of the fact that he is a homer. The objective homer can have valuable insight as a person who follows every move his team makes very closely.
The psychotic homer would still back his team if all 22 starters got killed in a plane crash 2 days before the game. Psychotic homers are easy to spot because they make outrageous claims, such as "They will not get one first down on our D" or "Your quarterback won't know what train hit him" or "Bet the house on the ML, **** the points, we don't need no stinking points!" Just picture the old SNL skit of Da BEARSSS fans. "Ditka vs. God, final score, God 98, Ditka 97."
Furthermore, everyone knows the best cappers in the world hope to hit 60% of their plays and that anything can happen in any one game. An objective homer realizes this and talks about trends, value and favorable situations that point toward giving one team a slight advantage. One should raise an eyebrow anytime someone makes claims of guaranteed blowouts, domination, and ass-whoopins.
But again, this is JUST MY OPINION, and I have been wrong many times before.
OK now, Sportsbet, that's actually a very different thing to say. If your point on the Eagles here is "anything can happen" I completely agree and good luck to you. But I don't think that's what you've been saying.
Anyway, that's obviously true, and a disclaimer I've used myself....but sort of pointless for a forum like this. If you think about it, that could be the only post anywhere on here........
"ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN! HAVE A NICE DAY."
Anyway, that's obviously true, and a disclaimer I've used myself....but sort of pointless for a forum like this. If you think about it, that could be the only post anywhere on here........
"ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN! HAVE A NICE DAY."
Grogan here is exactly what I feel about this game:
I think both teams are very similar from top to bottom. We both have great quarterbacks with great leadership skills who may have different styles but both have great success. Brady even more so than McNabb because he has gotten over the hump twice.
We both have great running backs (Dillon and Faulk for NE vs Westbrook and Levens for...yes I will say it...MY Eagles). Dillon is the best pure runner in the Super Bowl bar none and Faulk is a good contrast to Dillon's style. Westbrook is the best all around back in the Super Bowl and Levens is a good contrast to Brian.
We both have receiving corps by committees that are very strong. The Patriots have one of if not the BEST group of wide receivers as a GROUP in the game. It helps that Brady is the one that gets the ball to them. The Eagles receiving corps is one of the best at being opportunisitc in games and they make a lot of plays regardless of whether or not McNabb is in the pocket. The Pats have the edge at WR because they have the experience I am not denying that but both teams have weapons at WR regardless (I fully expect Owens to play BTW).
On defense it's the same. We both have great defensive lines (I think we have a slight edge because we can rotate so many players in and out and not suffer...we also have Jevon Kearse one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL). The Pats D line is stout but with Seymour's nagging injuries I think we have an edge here.
At linebacker no one denies McGinest and Bruschi are two of the best in the game. The edge certainly goes to the Pats BUT you can't underestimate the effect Trotter has on the running game. Dhani Jones is also a very good tackler and can cover the back out of the flat (and close pretty quickly). Simoneau should be ready to go but Adams has shown he can stop the run with the 7 tackles he had against Atlanta. We don't have the superstar name at LB like New England but this group is very good.
In the secondary I think our corners (Sheppard and Brown) are vastly improved over the course of the year. We are sending 3 of the 4 DB's to the Pro Bowl as starters so they do have some talent. Dawkins and Harrison are pretty equal (they both hit hard and have good hands...I think Dawk has a slight edge) and our X Factor has to be Lewis who has been unconscious all year with timely hits and solid deep coverage. Our safeties have a nose for the ball and they are not undisciplined over the middle.
Special teams? Vinatieri is the God of the AFC but David Akers is the God of the NFC. BOTH kickers set records left and right and Adam has a slight edge in accuracy but Akers is right up there with AV. Dirk Johnson set a team record in punting this year and he has had maybe 1 shank punt all year. Our return guys are outstanding on kickoff returns...NE has the edge in punt returns but we can certainly give ourselves good field position more times than not. Both teams have sure handed return guys so that should be pretty even.
Coaching...yes Billy ball has the rings and the experience but don't act like Reid doesn't have a clue what to do. Our coaching staff is outstanding with Brad Childress and Jim Johnson running the offense and defense and one of the elite special teams guys in Harbaugh. I think a slight edge to the Pats but we will scheme for them and do what we do with our defense to make life miserable for Brady.
It's not all smiles and sunshine...but the Eagles aren't as bad as Carolina last year (regardless of the loss to them in the C-game). They can give the Pats all they can handle. I really believe this team is ready to beat New England. So there you go.
E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!!
sb
I think both teams are very similar from top to bottom. We both have great quarterbacks with great leadership skills who may have different styles but both have great success. Brady even more so than McNabb because he has gotten over the hump twice.
We both have great running backs (Dillon and Faulk for NE vs Westbrook and Levens for...yes I will say it...MY Eagles). Dillon is the best pure runner in the Super Bowl bar none and Faulk is a good contrast to Dillon's style. Westbrook is the best all around back in the Super Bowl and Levens is a good contrast to Brian.
We both have receiving corps by committees that are very strong. The Patriots have one of if not the BEST group of wide receivers as a GROUP in the game. It helps that Brady is the one that gets the ball to them. The Eagles receiving corps is one of the best at being opportunisitc in games and they make a lot of plays regardless of whether or not McNabb is in the pocket. The Pats have the edge at WR because they have the experience I am not denying that but both teams have weapons at WR regardless (I fully expect Owens to play BTW).
On defense it's the same. We both have great defensive lines (I think we have a slight edge because we can rotate so many players in and out and not suffer...we also have Jevon Kearse one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL). The Pats D line is stout but with Seymour's nagging injuries I think we have an edge here.
At linebacker no one denies McGinest and Bruschi are two of the best in the game. The edge certainly goes to the Pats BUT you can't underestimate the effect Trotter has on the running game. Dhani Jones is also a very good tackler and can cover the back out of the flat (and close pretty quickly). Simoneau should be ready to go but Adams has shown he can stop the run with the 7 tackles he had against Atlanta. We don't have the superstar name at LB like New England but this group is very good.
In the secondary I think our corners (Sheppard and Brown) are vastly improved over the course of the year. We are sending 3 of the 4 DB's to the Pro Bowl as starters so they do have some talent. Dawkins and Harrison are pretty equal (they both hit hard and have good hands...I think Dawk has a slight edge) and our X Factor has to be Lewis who has been unconscious all year with timely hits and solid deep coverage. Our safeties have a nose for the ball and they are not undisciplined over the middle.
Special teams? Vinatieri is the God of the AFC but David Akers is the God of the NFC. BOTH kickers set records left and right and Adam has a slight edge in accuracy but Akers is right up there with AV. Dirk Johnson set a team record in punting this year and he has had maybe 1 shank punt all year. Our return guys are outstanding on kickoff returns...NE has the edge in punt returns but we can certainly give ourselves good field position more times than not. Both teams have sure handed return guys so that should be pretty even.
Coaching...yes Billy ball has the rings and the experience but don't act like Reid doesn't have a clue what to do. Our coaching staff is outstanding with Brad Childress and Jim Johnson running the offense and defense and one of the elite special teams guys in Harbaugh. I think a slight edge to the Pats but we will scheme for them and do what we do with our defense to make life miserable for Brady.
It's not all smiles and sunshine...but the Eagles aren't as bad as Carolina last year (regardless of the loss to them in the C-game). They can give the Pats all they can handle. I really believe this team is ready to beat New England. So there you go.
E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!!
sb
Sportsbet........Alright, now you're talking!! Seriously, that's a real good post and probably about the most convincing argument for taking Philly anyone could come up with. Good talent on both sides, why not go into the game leading by a touchdown?
Well, a couple reasons, but the clearest probably has to do with the conferences. Over the years, the conferences really do go in cycles, and this is a SERIOUS AFC cycle going on. Really, if you think about it, the split of the conferences is pretty arbitrary....in any given year, the top 16 teams could be in one conference and the bottom 16 in the other. Even if that were the case, the weak conference would put a team into the Super Bowl. Now it's obviously not that extreme, and as I've said I think Philly's a pretty decent football team. But the NFC is MUCH weaker than the AFC this year. They're not even close. So a lot of these positional breakdowns are based on how the teams fared against their respective conferences, and are really misleading.
Look at it this way--I (and a lot of other people) made the argument that you could throw out the Pittsburgh/New England game from earlier in the year....the Pats had a bunch of huge GAMEDAY injuries, a slew of early turnovers, etc. Pittsburgh had two weeks to get ready, and won the game. Well, what excuse does Philly have for getting hammered even worse the following week?? That was Pittsburgh on their NORMAL rest and having playing the Pats. (And when they played again, the Pats showed they were better than Pitt.)
It's great to be a fan, and like I said, good write-up. But this game isn't going to be close.
Well, a couple reasons, but the clearest probably has to do with the conferences. Over the years, the conferences really do go in cycles, and this is a SERIOUS AFC cycle going on. Really, if you think about it, the split of the conferences is pretty arbitrary....in any given year, the top 16 teams could be in one conference and the bottom 16 in the other. Even if that were the case, the weak conference would put a team into the Super Bowl. Now it's obviously not that extreme, and as I've said I think Philly's a pretty decent football team. But the NFC is MUCH weaker than the AFC this year. They're not even close. So a lot of these positional breakdowns are based on how the teams fared against their respective conferences, and are really misleading.
Look at it this way--I (and a lot of other people) made the argument that you could throw out the Pittsburgh/New England game from earlier in the year....the Pats had a bunch of huge GAMEDAY injuries, a slew of early turnovers, etc. Pittsburgh had two weeks to get ready, and won the game. Well, what excuse does Philly have for getting hammered even worse the following week?? That was Pittsburgh on their NORMAL rest and having playing the Pats. (And when they played again, the Pats showed they were better than Pitt.)
It's great to be a fan, and like I said, good write-up. But this game isn't going to be close.
OK we can also throw out the Eagles game against Pittsburgh because we didn't make the adjustments to our run defense until after the game (putting Trotter and Rayburn in the starting lineup and then cycling Rayburn out of the lineup because Trotter was such a major difference maker). If you look at our numbers before and after Trotter it's mind numbing. He has made that much of a difference and our defense will be very good in this game.
I did have a few more paragraphs but got stuck in the maintenance black hole so I will probably add more later. The AFC is loaded with better teams but that doesn't matter in one game against a team like the Eagles which has had success against the AFC the last two years (losses to the Pats last year and the Steelers this year...and the Bengals on the last game of the year when none of our 1st and 2nd string played). I'm not denying their conference is better but it's moot in the Super Bowl.
We'll win...trust me
.sb
OK, let's see--throw out Pittsburgh because of a shift in Philly's defensive rotation, and throw out Cincinnati because the Eagles weren't playing their starters.
So, that leaves the hugely impressive victories against the non-playoff teams Cleveland (winning 34-31) and Baltimore (winning 15-10). A whopping 8-point edge. Let's see, the Pats beat Cleveland 42-15 and Baltimore 24-3, for a combined 48-point advantage.
Yeah, I guess they really are about the same.
So, that leaves the hugely impressive victories against the non-playoff teams Cleveland (winning 34-31) and Baltimore (winning 15-10). A whopping 8-point edge. Let's see, the Pats beat Cleveland 42-15 and Baltimore 24-3, for a combined 48-point advantage.
Yeah, I guess they really are about the same.
...and Miami beat New England. Put us up against Miami in Miami I like our chances.
The fact is we were 13-1 and the two losses at the end of the year saw our starters in for what 3 minutes? New England on the other end was outplayed in Pittsburgh (Steelers more rushing and passing yards) except for some key errors by the rookie Qb at an inopportune time. That's the truth!
sb
The fact is we were 13-1 and the two losses at the end of the year saw our starters in for what 3 minutes? New England on the other end was outplayed in Pittsburgh (Steelers more rushing and passing yards) except for some key errors by the rookie Qb at an inopportune time. That's the truth!
sb
Luck has been defined as: Skill and preparation meeting opportunity.
Sportsbet, Pitt did win the game on paper, but these Patriots have been getting "lucky" for 2 straight seasons now. At what point do we stop saying they are lucky and start saying that they make bad things happen to their opponents?
I'm not saying I'm taking NE, but I have watched them win and cover week after week when I thought surely they were "due" for some bad luck. I actually did bet on Miami when NE played them there on MNF....too many points for a road favorite to cover on MNF.
I'm considering taking Philly + points, but if I do, it won't be because I think the Patriots have been "lucky."
Basically I'm just stirring things up so you and Grogan will keep going at it. Not only has it been entertaining, but you two both have some good angles for everyone to consider.
Sportsbet, Pitt did win the game on paper, but these Patriots have been getting "lucky" for 2 straight seasons now. At what point do we stop saying they are lucky and start saying that they make bad things happen to their opponents?
I'm not saying I'm taking NE, but I have watched them win and cover week after week when I thought surely they were "due" for some bad luck. I actually did bet on Miami when NE played them there on MNF....too many points for a road favorite to cover on MNF.
I'm considering taking Philly + points, but if I do, it won't be because I think the Patriots have been "lucky."
Basically I'm just stirring things up so you and Grogan will keep going at it. Not only has it been entertaining, but you two both have some good angles for everyone to consider.
Sport: Thick as a Brick
Grogan, please don't try to make any sense out of what Sport is spewing in his threads,,,he along with may other people just don't get it!!!!! aAt what point will they finally realize this team is very very good,,,,Dynasty???? not sure we can crown them just yet,,,,but hopefully we will come superbowl sunday....
Sport you make some valid points, then you make no sense at all. I also respect the eagles, however i don't think they have much of a chance to win this game.
Sport we have this guy named Belichek,,,who has the best supporting cast in Football......the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS...........you will BELIEVE very soon!!!!!!!
Grogan, please don't try to make any sense out of what Sport is spewing in his threads,,,he along with may other people just don't get it!!!!! aAt what point will they finally realize this team is very very good,,,,Dynasty???? not sure we can crown them just yet,,,,but hopefully we will come superbowl sunday....
Sport you make some valid points, then you make no sense at all. I also respect the eagles, however i don't think they have much of a chance to win this game.
Sport we have this guy named Belichek,,,who has the best supporting cast in Football......the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS...........you will BELIEVE very soon!!!!!!!
El Iguana said:Luck has been defined as: Skill and preparation meeting opportunity.
Sportsbet, Pitt did win the game on paper, but these Patriots have been getting "lucky" for 2 straight seasons now. At what point do we stop saying they are lucky and start saying that they make bad things happen to their opponents?
I'm not saying I'm taking NE, but I have watched them win and cover week after week when I thought surely they were "due" for some bad luck. I actually did bet on Miami when NE played them there on MNF....too many points for a road favorite to cover on MNF.
I'm considering taking Philly + points, but if I do, it won't be because I think the Patriots have been "lucky."
Basically I'm just stirring things up so you and Grogan will keep going at it. Not only has it been entertaining, but you two both have some good angles for everyone to consider.
:lolBIG: Iguana it's all in good fun. Obviously I'm going to do whatever it takes to state my case to the masses as to why I think our guys can win this thing. Am I too close to the party to be impartial? Of course...I am an Eagles fan and that will never be debated. But I think the obvious lack of respect the NE bettors are showing for the birds (much like they did with Carolina last year) makes this all the more easier for me to state my case.
The Pats weren't lucky in every game this year. This team is obviously loaded with talent all across the roster and in the coaching staff. I've never said I don't respect the Patriots nor have I said I think the Eagles are going to blow them out of the water. I think the birds have a very good shot at winning this game outright and I think 7 points is just not justifiable in this game and I will continue to state my case throughout the next 2 weeks.
I've been posting since the fall of 2000 and I'm not about to go anywhere after this game is played so win or lose I will be here to celebrate or take my medicine. I really believe the Eagles are going to be Super Bowl Champions and I think to believe this team is just going to be Patriots fodder is very ignorant and naive on anyone's part. We're better than last year's Carolina team and they were very close to being Super Bowl Champs last year.
Good luck on your plays in the bowl (unless they're on the Pats of course)
sb
Paceman34 said:Grogan, please don't try to make any sense out of what Sport is spewing in his threads,,,he along with may other people just don't get it!!!!! aAt what point will they finally realize this team is very very good,,,,Dynasty???? not sure we can crown them just yet,,,,but hopefully we will come superbowl sunday....
Sport you make some valid points, then you make no sense at all. I also respect the eagles, however i don't think they have much of a chance to win this game.
Sport we have this guy named Belichek,,,who has the best supporting cast in Football......the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS...........you will BELIEVE very soon!!!!!!!
Pace I hear ya over here in the city of Brotherly Love! We're coming for that crown so I hope you're ready to celebrate one more Eagles victory in 2 weeks!
E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!! :howdy:
sb
Sportsbet- you just said Trotter will play a big part of Philly's defensive game plan for the SuperBowl. You say the Philly D is quite something to behold after the PIT game. Take the next 6 games after PIT then and I ask you. What great offense did they stop? Dallas twice? Washington twice? NYG? The only team that both NE and Philly have BOTH played this year, by way of comparison, was lowly Cleveland, ( but- from the AFC, the stronger Conference) Both were played at Cleveland. NE easily buried Cleveland, covering and winning by 27. Phiily almost lost, squeaking out a win over them with a a field goal in OT. The point is what you see as a good improvement in the Philly defense means nothing until theyve played the BEST AFC TEAM -NE-after a doormat like CLE takes you to the brink and a good team like PIT holds you to zero TD's.
Fact is there are alot of good cappers around the country that like Philly and will bet them taking 7, and some even on the ML as well, and Sportsbet is evidently one of them. I just dont understand why. Were not trying to force the issue here and were not yahoos. Were simply trying to help them see the truth of the matter, because there is serious money avaible here to the astute investor. Im in for at least a Dime here, and Im looking for more evertime I hear Philly backers try to match their Defense against NE's Offense Theres a saying,, "Two men look out through the bars, One sees mud- the other sees stars." If they cant see all the stars surrounding the Patriots nothing will convince them. Thing is, were only telling them because we dont even care if the line goes up to 9.5. Otherwise I wouldnt be saying a word. The line in this game will be NO FACTOR. Period. NE dominates anything that crosses their path.
Of their three Playoff obstacles NE has cut through the flank and the rump. Now comes the tenderloin.
Fact is there are alot of good cappers around the country that like Philly and will bet them taking 7, and some even on the ML as well, and Sportsbet is evidently one of them. I just dont understand why. Were not trying to force the issue here and were not yahoos. Were simply trying to help them see the truth of the matter, because there is serious money avaible here to the astute investor. Im in for at least a Dime here, and Im looking for more evertime I hear Philly backers try to match their Defense against NE's Offense Theres a saying,, "Two men look out through the bars, One sees mud- the other sees stars." If they cant see all the stars surrounding the Patriots nothing will convince them. Thing is, were only telling them because we dont even care if the line goes up to 9.5. Otherwise I wouldnt be saying a word. The line in this game will be NO FACTOR. Period. NE dominates anything that crosses their path.
Of their three Playoff obstacles NE has cut through the flank and the rump. Now comes the tenderloin.
Sportsbet, it's good to hear that you are taking all of this **** everyone is shoveling you with a grain of salt. In the past, I have seen many posters nearing rage and taking it all too personally. We're just a bunch of people engaging in some conversation and trying to share our angles on the game.
Total Recall, you're right about the Pats being a winning (and covering) machine. On paper, it looks like the Eagles have already lost. But, as I said in another post, the play that looks like the "sure thing" somehow seems to LOSE about half the time! Something about NE -7 isn't sitting right about this game. Every capper in the UNIVERSE (save Sportsbet) seems to be on NE, and it looks like they are the odds-on favorite to cover the -7.
BUT--what's going on with the books....are they going to let themselves get taken to the cleaners if the Pats cover in the biggest wagering event of the year? I haven't made up my mind yet, but I'm considering taking the dog + points (hopefully 9 or more by gametime). If these 2 teams had played during the regular season on a neutral field, I would probably be pretty happy with 7 points. Like many others, I'm probably overanalyzing this game and just trying to be a contrarian, but something feels funny about NE -7. GL
Total Recall, you're right about the Pats being a winning (and covering) machine. On paper, it looks like the Eagles have already lost. But, as I said in another post, the play that looks like the "sure thing" somehow seems to LOSE about half the time! Something about NE -7 isn't sitting right about this game. Every capper in the UNIVERSE (save Sportsbet) seems to be on NE, and it looks like they are the odds-on favorite to cover the -7.
BUT--what's going on with the books....are they going to let themselves get taken to the cleaners if the Pats cover in the biggest wagering event of the year? I haven't made up my mind yet, but I'm considering taking the dog + points (hopefully 9 or more by gametime). If these 2 teams had played during the regular season on a neutral field, I would probably be pretty happy with 7 points. Like many others, I'm probably overanalyzing this game and just trying to be a contrarian, but something feels funny about NE -7. GL
