FYI:
These were some of the plays released on my "Super Saturday's"- NCAA FB-1st SET to go off the board, which is being posted for documentation and informational purposes like always...(note: the lines posted w/ each play are reflecting the current lines at the time these plays were released to all My members.)
*SATURDAY'S PLAYS (10-18):
{NCAA FB-1st SET}
"BIG GAME PLAY"-Big Ten Game of the Week: (7 Units)
Iowa -3 (buy .5pt)
-Wow, how fast have these Badgers of Wisky fallen....Unreal!...This team was suppose to challenge for the Big Ten title and opened up in the top 10 ranking to start the season...Now, this team after opening up with 3 straight wins have now lost 3 straight...and it wasn't just any type of losses...Nope, these Badgers have taken some of the worst defeats in a 3 week span that I have ever seen.
Lets recap those 3 consecutive losses:...First they blow a huge 19-0 lead at the half at Michigan, a team who lost to Toledo of the MAC conf, and lose by 2 points 27-25...Then they lose a Big game at home to Ohio St...a game they were leading in the 4th 17-13 with just under 7 mins to play...This loss was very depressing not only because the Badgers fought the Buckeyes hard, but the loss also snapped their 16-game home winning streak and their 1st loss at Camp Randall Stadium since Nov. 12, 2005....And lastly, last weeks very BAD 48-7 embarrassing home loss to Penn St.
Several things in all 3 consecutive losses is evident...One of them being, that their star RB Hill, who makes their offense go...has been held to just 70 yards, 3.2 ypc, no TDs vs Michigan....63 yards, 3.9 ypc, 1 TD vs Ohio St...and just 58 yards, 3.9 ypc, no TDs vs Penn St....That is BAD, BAD, BAD for this Wisconsin team that NEEDS to RUN the ball to win games.
The second thing that is evident in those 3 losses...was that when Hill was held in check...the Badger offense could not depend on QB Evridge to win it with his arm...Vs Michigan QB Evridge, threw for 226 yards...but just 54.1% completion, just 1 TD, had 2 Ints, and sacked 4 times....Vs Ohio St, he threw for 147 yards, just 52.0% completion, just 1 TD, had 1 Ints, and was sacked 2 times...And, Vs Penn St, he only threw for 50 yards completing just 2 attempts for 20% completion, no TDs, had 1 Int, and sacked 1 time before being replaced....
Not Good!
This Badger offense and defense is simply struggling and today’s game vs the Hawkeye’s won't make things fair better for them playing this one in Iowa's House...Below are more Keys to this one that I love.
*KEY #1: The Hawkeye’s play tremendous defense...that will be hungry to stuff RB Hill.
As I have mentioned the Badgers are struggling on offense...as they have not scored more than 17 points in 3 of their last 4 games...And, in their last game at home vs Penn St they only scored 7 points...WTF!...Hell, even Syracuse put up 13 points and Coastal Carolina 10 points on the Nittany Lions defense.
The Hawkeye’s on defense have been playing solid ball and seems to only be getting better...In fact, in their last game at Indiana they only gave up 9 points and also held the Hoosiers to just 4-of-14 on their 3rd down attempts...Now don't get me wrong...the Badgers do bring some good RBs in Hill, Brown, and Clay to this game...but I just feel that they will be going up against a front four for the Hawkeye’s that is one of, if not, the toughest to run against in the Big Ten conf.
Currently, the Hawkeye’s defense is ranked 1st in the conf in Scoring Defense allowing just 10.9 ppg...They are also tied for 1st in the conf with Penn St with 11 ints on the season...Furthermore, they are ranked 3rd in Total Defense allowing just 281.9 ypg....Ranked 4th allowing just 55% completions...Ranked 3rd allowing just 183.6 ypg passing...with only 5 passing TDs given up....And, they are also ranked 4th in Total Rush Defense allowing just 3.1 ypc...2nd in rush ypg allowed, giving up just 98.3 ypg...Lastly, 1st in the conference in rushing TDs allowed, only giving up 3 so far on the season...
SOLID!
Bottom line here is that the Hawkeye’s defense is a Big Key for them winning this one and shutting down this stuttering Wisky offense...They have given up just 8 TDs in 7 games so far...Don't expect Wisky to change that vs this team that plays tremendous team defense...and especially since this Wisky offense is currently ranked 9th in the conf in pass offense...9th in the conf in completion % with just 53% completion...9th in the conf in Total passing ypg with just 182...And tied for last with Purdue with just 5 passing TDs on the season so far.
Side Note: In the Badgers last game at home vs Penn St...they turned the ball over 4 times and were 5-of-16 on third down conversion attempts....
Not Good!
Side Note: One area which was suppose to be the Badgers strength this season also, was on the OL where 4 starters returned...however, this unit is not getting it done...And, they will be hard pressed to correct it here as they played without LT Carimi the last game and also lost RG Urbik against Penn St...
Not Good!
Side Note: Wisky's QB Evridge only completed 2 passes vs Penn State and has probably lost his job to Jr Dustin Sherer (career 11 of 22, 2 ints., no TDPs).
Side Note: Iowa’s defense has already faced some big solid backs and fared very well…Vs MSU’s Javon Ringer they held him to just 91 yards…Vs Pitt’s LeSean McCoy, they held him to only 78 yards…And vs Northwestern’s Tyrell Sutton, they held him to just 77 yards.
*KEY #2: The Hawkeye’s offense behind RB Green is starting to click.
As Wisky's offense and RB Hill struggles...Iowa's offense and RB Green are starting to hit their stride...This is not good news for this Wisky team that is giving up 22.7 ppg and 321 total ypg...Wisky has found success in taking it away, with 14 turnovers...but that is trumped by permitting their opponents to make 44% of their 3rd down attempts.
For the Hawkeye’s offense they start it just like Wisky with the running of RB Greene...only for them, Greene is doing a superb job of pounding the ball on opposing defenses...Currently he is ranked 6th in the land in rushing averaging 134 ypg...In their last game at Indiana he had just 115 yards and eventhough he got a little dinged up...stepping in to make this Hawkeye run attack more potent was RB Hampton, who came in and rushed for 114 yards and 3 TDs....Iowa’s one-two punch!
In that last win for Iowa they had 28 first downs and 422 total yards of offense...Solid!...Helping the cause on offense beside the running game was the QB play of Stanzi, who was solid with 184 yards and 2 TDs...In fact, unlike Wisky's QB Evridge...Iowa's Stanzi has completed 64.2% of his passes for 1,006 yards and 7 TD with just 4 ints...This goes well with RB Greens 6.2 ypc average.
Currently, the Hawkeye’s offense are averaging 28.6 ppg and 386.9 total ypg this season with 23 offensive TDs in 7 games, including 14 rushing TDs...And, they also are going up against a Wisky defense that is currently ranked 2nd to last in the conf allowing 10 rushing TDs...6th in the conf allowing 120.7 rushing yards pg...and also 7th in Scoring defense allowing 22.7 ppg as well.
*KEY #3: The Hawkeye’s situational set-ups & HFA favors them.
Now you all should know by now that I am first and foremost a Fundamental Capper...but, when it comes to qualifying as a
"BGP" for me...all 3 Handicapping Methods must favor one side....In this case, here is the 2nd qualification.
Just like when a team over-achieves and wins a big game...many expect them to suffer a hang-over affect from that win...Well, in this one I am expecting somewhat the same..but this time it is a hang-over effect from losing 3 straight games...Not only in the last few minutes (ie, vs Michigan and Ohio St)...but also by getting destroyed at home against Penn St...Now you must realize that the last game wasn't just a lost...it was a Fucking Beat Down...and the worst most embarrassing lost that the Badgers have had at home in 19 years...19 Years!
These kind of losses are not the kind that a team can easily bounced back from or refocus themselves from...You gotta remember also that these 3 losses were also against the 3 Big Teams in the conf...which I expect the Badgers players all were easily able to focus on playing their best against....Now, against a team like Iowa who is NOT one of the Big Teams in the conf...and is a team that they have beaten the last 2 years...And, who is a team that is unranked and also with just 1 win in the conf...I am expecting that the Badger players will struggle very much with getting up and highly focused for this one...You see, it is one thing to get up for Ohio St and Penn St, even Michigan...but Iowa?
One thing with young kids is that you cannot expect them to be easily able to bring their emotional levels up every single week, especially if they exceeded their normal emotional levels not only last week, but in the last 3 weeks...and even moreso now that they must face what they would consider an inferior foe to the previous 3 opponents...Sure some may say that they will because their season is on the line…Well, they know by now that their season is lost and that they will only be playing for lesser bowls, no conf or national championships…Can they so easily get up for this one after what they have suffered…I don’t think so, and I see them not emotionally ready to face this hungrey Hawkeye team, which makes them right for the pickin's.
Another situational advantage the Hawkeyes have is catching this mentally and physically beat up team in the Badgers on their home field...And, they will be playing with not only momentum on their side..but also with Double Revenge as well...Remember, the Badgers were one of the, if not, the favorite to win the conf...so they are a Big opponent for the Hawkeyes and beating them, no matter that they lost 3 games and are at the bottom of the conf standing…is still BIG for this Hawkeye team...You think they will be ready and hungrey for them....
YOU BET YOUR ASS THEY WILL!
Side Note: Wisky is now in the conf basement at 0-3 while Iowa may have turned their season around…A win today will be huge for them.
*KEY #4: The Hawkeye’s past stats, trends, & info favors them.
Now the last area of qualification is the Statistical/Tends/Info portion...I don't hold to much in way of past stats and trends like most other handicappers do...but, when I see some real eye-opening past stats and trends, even I gotta take notice...Below are just a few I like.
-Wisky has allowed 31, 38, 38, 34, & 27 pts in its last 5 Big Ten road games...Wow!
-Wisky's Coach Bielema is 4-7 ATS on the road.
-Iowa snapped a 3 gm slide with a 45-9 rout at Indy in which they out rushed Indy 227-95...RB Greene (#6 NCAA 937, 6.2) became the 1st RB in Iowa history to have 100 yds in the 1st 7 games of a season.
-Wisky's loss to Michigan 3 weeks ago…looks a lot more embarrassing now that weak-ass Toledo beat the Wolverines in the Big House.
-Wisky is 0-2 both SU and ATS as a Dog.
-Wisky is 2-7 SU and 2-6 ATS as a Dog the last 3 seasons.
-Wisky is 0-3 SU and ATS...on the road averaging 16.3 ppg, while allowing opponents to average 31.7 ppg.
-Iowa at home this season, 3-1 SU averaging 30.5 ppg, while opponents are averaging just 7.5 ppg in their house.
-This is a Double Revenger for Iowa.
Bottom line is the Hawkeyes have built up some strong momentum heading into this one...And, they are going up against a team coming in that should be totally deflated and wounded...The Badgers are in desperate need of a victory, but desperation doesn't always equate to victory...And coming into Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City to get your mojo back is also not an easy thing to do consistently....Wisconsin's difficult Big 10 season got worse with embarrassing 48-7 loss at home to Penn St...and things wont get any easier vs a Hawkeye defense that is better then theirs...and whose RB Greene (6th in the land) is also better than theirs.
I can go on and on, but that is enough shit to back my play....Take Iowa as your
"BIG GAME PLAY"-Big Ten Game of the Week....GL and Aloha CC.
-Please disregard any typos and grammatical errors...as I am a Handicapper and dont care about my spelling and shit...LOL.
**TOP RATED PLAYS ON: (3 Units)
C Mich +2
Rutgers -1
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