Zapsterz NBA Totalz

[MrsCheater]

Yes, im back after a good night sleep and ready to go at it again. think i will hold off on philly and go after the memphis over.

Even tho its only a drop by, still good to see tate, and remember take time as u need and come back when u r ready! will be waiting patiently for tates return

GL tonight

 

[Zapster]

Adding one more play for Monday. Here is the final sheet:

Dallas OVER 201 (15 Units)
Philly OVER 193 (10 Units)
Memphis OVER 197 (15 Units)

 

[SportSavant]

congrats on getting back to the black side of the ledger...

if I may chime in with a bit of advice to readers of the thread, it has been said over & over but I cannot re-iterate enough...

1) FORECASTING...it is not a perfect science however can be very helpful in determining when to wager on a game, In general the public likes to bet on the over (it's more exciting!), many teams are also perceived as over teams...if there is a play posted on the under of say a Dallas/Sacr game, i for one would wait for the very last minute to play the under on that game feeling that the public would drive the total up a few points...alternatively if our play is on the over in the same game I would certainly try to play the overnite line or play as early as I can...Same can be said for teams who are known for good defence...if our play is on NJ/HOUS under we may want to play that early knowing that the public will drive the play down....Again it is not a perfect science but if you can succesfully forecast, even at a 55% clip...it will add to your edge.

2) SHOPPING...Would you buy a 500$ TV at the first electronic store you walked into? or would you shop around to a few stores to try to get the best deal...The same holds true when placing a wager...As an example Jan 10 I was on the Warriors of Golden State...My local had -3, & all the accounts that I had funded at the time were at -3 solid. (I have about 10 accounts but only about 3 funded at any given time). Decided to log into my WWTS account & found GS to be -2.5, hmmm, do I go through the trouble of depositing with WWTS, My Netteller account was empty so it would be a hassle, I would have to use my Credit Card to Deposit....I could have easily said fxck it, laid the 3 & hoped for the best...well I didnt...I ran downstairs, got my wallet, funded my WWTS account....the result...My Bankroll is 2 units bigger today than it would have been if I had said fxck it...now think about this....imagine if you could turn 4% of your PUSHES into WINS!!! & turn 4% of your LOSSES into PUSHES!!!! Over a year...Do you not think that is HUGE!!!!! Lesson: shopping for the best available line is imperative.

10-Jan [714] WARRIORS GOLDEN ST. -2½ (Win) (GS 113 - SEA 110 Final Score)

I have been in this business about 12 years, I have by no means made a fortune (But made more in sports betting than the beating that i took in the Stock Market!!!!)...I have a few articles posted on my website which is simply my avatar name, no ads or bullshit...just some real newbie stuff really...but even as experienced wagerers we should be reminding ourselves of this.

thanks for the plays Zap...

[This message was edited by SportSavant on January 12, 2004 at 12:56 PM.]

 

[Zapster]

SpoSav.......

Great input. I checked out some of the articles you posted. Especially loved the one about Sports Handicappers. In Ocober, a "handicapping service" got a hold of my cell phone number and tormented me for weeks. At one point, in an effort to get rid of them, I finally said "look....I'm busted..I can't play anymore and am going to start attending Gamblers' Anonymous." Their response ?? They actually asked me if I had credit cards or friends or relatives I could borrow from so I could jump on the sure winners they were going to give me !!! What SCUM !!

But it was that experience that inspired me to post my picks on the internet for free. I figure people are better off checking out my steady 54-55% winning percentage for free than dealing with boiler-room jerkoffs who sell their coin-flip results for huge money. SO I started this string shortly after the NBA season began, hoping to prove myself by using the totals formula that correctly picked 54.82% winners last year. Shortly after that I "met" Tater....and those who have been reading this forum know the rest.

I have a website under development which I will post about in Site Promos when the time comes....but I do just want to say that my purpose for the website is to continue to offer solid and free picks to the public, as a (hopefully) viable alternative to these scammers.

Your site contains some very valuable info and I enjoyed checking it out. Hopefully we will be in touch down the road.

 

[BuckEyez]

Zapster

Very honorable decision. All of your work is appreciated.

I have been taken by a sportservice before. I purchased the UnionMan's picks and I lost a LOT of money. I walked away after a significant loss and I vowed to use the expertise of the individuals in this forum to try to get back to where I was. Individuals like you Tater, OldmanTed, etc.

I wish you continued success and extend my thanks for your advice.

 

[Zapster]

Buck.....

Sorry to hear that happened....hopefully some us can help get you going in a good direction. Needless to say, you need to be patient and use sound MM strategy. I wish you the best of luck !!

 

[SportSavant]

thks for the kind words, not much of a website builder as you can see...dont have too much time with the office & my girlfriend (whom I love with every ounce of my being but demands alot of my time.) My main goal is to simply post as much helpful information on the site as I can. Maybe after I have alot of info posted I will get some more internet savy freinds to help make it look a bit more professional. dont get me wrong, I have ALOT to learn, especially when it comes to my greatest weakness, DISCIPLINE. I like many other gamblers love action, & lots of it. I also however can share a few tips, when I first got involved 12 years ago I wish I had this type of information available to me. I could have saved alot of money. If I can help a newbie learn the path in 3 years rather than the over 10 years that it took me...then I am happy.

it is very generous of you to share your plays with the rx readers...you are also always reminding your thread readers to be careful & that the only sure thing in gambling is: "There is no such thing as a sure thing". have you read DAWGMAN's threads at this site, he was here for a few months...got every body very worked up tricked people to get their email addresses & is now wanting 249$ a month for his plays. Thing is I have absolutely no problem with him trying to create a business, in fact all the power too him. Thing is, I dont beleive that helping others is truly in his heart of hearts. I also do not beleive his methods were completely honest. I think I have some good ideas on how an honest person with a skill such as yourself can make some coin but at the same time help alot of people...I am sure we will talk more in the future...

best of luck tonite...

 

[SportSavant]

buc, it takes a big man to admit that one has been fleeced...I also commented today in one of DAWG's threads that I have also sent money to these services in the past. By sharing your story you may get through to one or two people & if you helped them...it is worth it.

 

[no11limit]

Zap,

Anythign goign on in the memphis/ golden state game. I had it last ngiht at 197.5 and it has dropped to 195. Is someone injuried or nto playign to make the lien drop or should i jump on for the Over.

 

[Zapster]

no-limit.....

I have given up driving myself crazy trying to interpret line moves. Needless to say I would be feeling better about my 197 had the line shot upwards than downwards. There are no major injuries (other than Troy Murphy being "questionable") that I am aware of. All the line shift means in this case is that a lot of money came on on the under.

Memphis did play an overtime game last night, so maybe the public is (over?)reacting to that.

Oops...see what I mean ?? There I am doing exactly what I said I had given up doing !!

 

[Zapster]

Meat Loaf again.....hey....I promise I will never get bored of it. This brings my picks to......:

YTD 103-86 - Plus 111.4 Units - 54.5% Winners

Over 1,000 views of this string today.....amidst a lot of interesting exchanges of ideas. Thanks again, Savant for pointing me to your very-much-on-target articles on your site. Tomorrow's picks will be posted in awhile.

 

[Zapster]

Ok....three picks (so far) for Tuesday:

San Antonio UNDER 171.5 (15 Units)
Boston UNDER 194 (10 Units)
Detroit UNDER 171 (10 Units)

More to come (???) in the morning

 

[jpjazzman]

Been a follower for a few weeks now Zap... like the system a lot, you do some great work. I was just curious if you had a break down of your picks by unit bet. Cause while 55% is great overall, i'm sure that your % is even better for your higher unit plays, is that right?

Thanks for all your hard work, keep it up!

 

[Zapster]

jpj.......

I did that a few weeks ago.....it is somewhere in the middle pages of this thread. I've been meaning to update that and will try to get to it in the morning.

 

[Zapster]

A couple of weighting changes....and an additional small play. Here is the updated sheet for Wednesday. Portland-Clips are still off the board so I will check later to see if that is worth adding.

San Antonio UNDER 171.5 (20 Units)
Boston UNDER 194 (10 Units)
Detroit UNDER 171 (7 Units)
Golden State OVER 182.5 (4 Units)

Teamrichie brings up a valid point in his article in the handicapping section about overly weighted plays. I know he was not referring to my methods in his writing, but at the same time I realize the gap between my 20 unit plays and my 4 unit plays may be on the extreme side. It is worth examining. Clearly the Golden State game today will have little reletive impact on the money outcome today. At the same time, my numbers spit it out as a minimum play and the main reason I am posting is to have my plays tracked. So in the case of Golden State today....and in the case of most of the 4 and 5 unit plays, the message is that I want it to count on my record but am urging extreme caution in wagering on them.....unless of course it turns out to be a Zapsterater "agreed play."

I am going to go back to my records now and post a breakdown of the various weightings since 12/1.

 

[Zapster]

December 1st through January 12th:

04 Units 13-14
05 Units 17-11
07 Units 8-8
10 Units 19-16
15 Units 13-13
20 Units 8-4

Total 78-66 (54.16%)

Soooo......the bigger plays (10+ Units) are 40-33 (54.79%)and the smaller ones are 38-33 (53.52%).....which means jp is correct that the bigger plays are indeed hitting better than the smaller ones.

 

[teamrichie]

Zap..whats happening my man. Yeah that article was not refering to your methods. All the respect goes out to you. That article was meant to help whoever wanted to take the info and use it. It was really aimed at the GOY stuff which is ridiculous. Just trying to help any newbies and us too, we can all learn. 15 services ended up over 53% out of 137 monitored my thesportsmonitor. you read it right... 15 services made their clients money, that were monitored. How many lost money thats not monitored?

We need more services like zap and tate.

Heres a warning to all you scamdicappers..this is a scamdicapper i found hanging around the book

 

[SportSavant]

yo zap...in order to offer some guidance to the thread readers (& myself) may I ask you a question...

If someone say has 1000$ (easy round #) to start with, how much would you recommend placing on a 10 Unit Play...(am assuming that readers can do the rest of the math from there...

later

 

[dolphin]

Zapster - I know I'm new here, and rookies get criticized for no original postings, but... As something I look at in my handicapping and others, I wonder how you have done historically at different points in the season. Some 'cappers wait for enough games to be played before wading in, while others, like yourself are betting from the season's start. Since the inefficiencies are often greatest at the outset for the sophisticated 'cappers, just out of curiousity, do you historically start off around 60% for the first six weeks or so, and then flatten out a bit, still resulting in 54.5 +/-? This question would be for Tatehill as well...hopefully taken as a quest for knowledge rather than anything negative.

Thanks,

Dolphin

 

[Zapster]

SpoSav.......
TeamR.......15 out of 137 ???? WoW !!! I had no idea it was THAT bad !! Hell....even if they are flipping coins, you would think more than that would do better on luck alone. Well that just makes it all the better if these picks can stay in the mid 50's.

SpoSav......I realize that conventional wisdom dictates betting no more than 2-ish percent of your bankroll on any one game, I hesitate to say this.....but I would say $4 per unit (so $40 for a 10 unit play) would sound about right to me. I'd also say reassess the $$ per unit and adjust it to 0.4% of the bankroll whenever the bankroll changes by $300 or more.

Dolphin.....I do have that info available for last season...and this season so far. I will post it after lunch.