Zapsterz NBA Totalz

Zapster · Feb 11, 2004

2-2 last night but made an 11 Unit profit. That works. The bigger plays are 39-30 and that has been the saving grace of the season so far.

Tonight I have three of them....one of which is an agreed play with Tater.....:

LAKERZZ UNDER 176.5 (5 Units)
SACRAMENTO OVER 193 (7 Units)
NEW YORK UNDER 185 (7 Units) (agreed play)

Best o' Luck !!

Zapster · Feb 12, 2004

Not much to say after an 0-3 night. Tonight once again I risk going into minus terriatory for the first time since 12/9. Let's see if I can stay above the "Mendoza Lina" with....:

Toronto OVER 187.5

hanover00 · Feb 13, 2004

I have to hand it to you. Despite a tough run you keep on coming, no disappearing act for you.

Buddy, at this point though, maybe you should take some time off and work on your method. Sometimes working privately, no one looking at your picks, helps you to focus on the important data only. Try again next year. BTW, this is not intended to flame.

Zapster · Feb 13, 2004

Hanover.....

I didn't take that for a flame at all....and it has certainly been a very tough run. 2004 has me at 57-76 and minus 119 units. I fully recognize that this likely is not just an unlucky streak...that there may be some sort of fundamental flaw in the way these numbers are being crunched.

It is hard to accept because I had a 54.8% winning season last year and as of New Year's was doing even better this season. Needless to say I am at a c****roads.....not sure whether to just "weather the storm" and keep doing things the way I have been, or conclude that changes need to be made and retool my formulae.

The all star break is coming at a good time as I will have four days to regroup and reevaluate my methods.....although I do plan to spend most of the next four days focusing on anything BUT the NBA.

You may very well be right that it may make sense to take a break beyond the next four days. I guess I will get up Tuesday morning and see how it all feels. Meanwhile I wish you (and everyone else who still takes the time to read my ravings) a great second half of the season !!

GLJJNOVA · Feb 14, 2004

Zap, I think it's a good time for all of us to reflect and make the winning adjustments. Good time to renergize, update data, and get ready for the stretch run.

Best Wishes
Gary

tatehill2000 · Feb 14, 2004

well spoken,,,

tater

SweeptheBoard · Feb 15, 2004

Guys, May I request that you start a new post-Allstar game thread so I don't have to click on 20 to find the latest posts. Why not carry the records forward making it much easier to navigate (unless you are trying to win the longest thread award!) I like following you and am confident better times lie ahead, but I dread clicking to find the new info...

also, in your post zap, i see you used **** as in c****roads - i see that a lot here at Rx - is there some reason that i am missing as to why many seem to do this?

GL POST-AS BREAK

sweep

arth · Feb 16, 2004

so click in the column 'Last post'
not in column 'topic'
and you will go to the last post in topic (not first subpage)

arth

tatehill2000 · Feb 16, 2004

Sweep,,,, Here at the RX there is a profanity screener,,, and,, hahah,,, unfortunately it is broken so it deletes NONPROFANE letters,,, hahhaha

tater

Zapster · Feb 16, 2004

Arth....

I didn't realize you could do that !! Thanks.....that is a good tool.

Sweep.....

Yeah.....I kinda want to see if I can get to 100,000 views by the end of the playoffs....silly as that may seem.....and now that it's been pointed out that you can go right to the last page, hopefully you won't find it inconvienient.

But MAINLY, I need to get back on the winning track. I've been doing some research and am looking hard at what does and doesn't work and am VERY much looking forward, with renewed energy, to a sucessful 2nd half push.

GLJJNOVA · Feb 16, 2004

Zap, I know you're ready to go after the break. I like to start capping with my own lines. My sides are always pretty close, but my totals are way off at times(if you have time check my thread). But I'm still kinda new on totals.
Do you start with a base # on a game and then input it into your system? Would you agree that the late #s on totals are sharper than open lines?
Looking forward to your early leans.

GLTA
Gary

Zapster · Feb 17, 2004

Gary.....

I do start with a "base" number of sorts, but a lot of variables go into coming up with that number....and it usually ends up getting adjusted by other factors. I do find the later lines tend to move in the same direction as my plays....in other words I get better numbers if I play early....but I seem to have difficulty coming up with good numbers the night before the game (I'm working on changing that) so I generally try to get it all done before 9am Pacific time. The bigger moves don't seem to happen until after that time....usually.

On to new business.............. !!!

Here is my "biggie" for tonight, which is also an "agreed play" with Tater.....:

Portland UNDER 194.5

I will have a few more posted later.

Zapster · Feb 17, 2004

Ok.....on to the second half of the season. The first half ended badly. On December 31st I held a commanding lead in the BoDog contest and as we enter the second half I am sitting in 59th place. My YTD record is now..........:

145-144 - Minus 1.5 Units - 50.17% Winners

Hopefully in a few weeks I will be able to look back on this post and feel good about the turnaround.....but before that happens, there needs to BE a turnaround, so that brings us to tonight:

New Orleans UNDER 178 (5 Units)
Utah UNDER 167 (7 Units)
Dallas OVER 209 (5 Units)
Portland UNDER 194.5 (15 Units)

The Portland play is also Tater's best play of the night and when he agrees with a 15 (or more) unit play, we are 12-7 YTD, so that is one I really want. I sold my seats for the game before I knew how big of a play it would be, but I called the guy who will be in my seats and told him he has to be screaming DEE-FENSE if he ever wants my seats again. He has a louder voice than me (believe it or not) so it may work out for the best.

Zapster · Feb 18, 2004

Picked up some units with the 15 Unit "Biggie" hitting last night. These plays (15 or 20 Unit plays) are now 40-30 and are the reason my unit count is positive in spite of my (smidgen over) .500 W-L record.

Three plays tonight.....:

San Antonio UNDER 166.5 (15 Units)
Dallas OVER 205.5 (4 Units)
Milwaukee OVER 183.5 (10 Units)

tatehill2000 · Feb 18, 2004

Good luck yuou Maniac!!!! (except on the Dallas play!!) haha,,,
see ya in the am!
tater

Zapster · Feb 19, 2004

Missed a 3-0 by 1.5 points last night. Not usually one to complain, but San Antonio - Toronto scores 110 through 3 quarters and then they score 58 in the 4th, so that was a tough one to take.

I have two tonight:

Sacramento OVER 206.5 (4 Units) (agreed play)
Boston OVER 203 (10 Units)

Zapster · Feb 20, 2004

Frustrating 0-2 last night. Sacto shot under 34% and Boston-Clips ends up at 202 after being tied at 100 with 20 seconds left in the game....not to mention the 67 point first quarter !!

So the last two days have been very frustrating....and have seen me drop even further to 68th place in BoDog's contest, after being in first place in late December.

Ok...enough whining....I think the games have been mostly well capped since the all star break and luck will (hopefully) even out. Let's see if tonight can be used as a springboard.....:

Denver OVER 207 (10 Units)
Utah UNDER 175 (15 Units) (agreed biggie)
Cleveland UNDER 181 (5 Units)
Portland OVER 188 (5 Units)
Philadelphia UNDER 187 (5 Units)

Zapster · Feb 21, 2004

Bigger plays and agreed plays are still doing well, even as my overall record drops to below 50%.

Two biggies and one middlin' play tonight.....:

Denver OVER 186.5 (15 Units) (agreed biggie)
Clippers OVER 204.5 (10 Units)
Seattle OVER 197.5 (15 Units)

Zapster · Feb 21, 2004

Ok....this is "Zapster's Last Stand." This is not a chase.....this game honestly calcs as a 20 Unit play. I am too tired to look at the rest of Sunday's card right now, but I want to post this one.....and if this one doesn't hit, I think it is time for a break from this.

Utah UNDER 170 (20 Units)

Again....the 20 Unit play is not an over-reaction to the bad run these plays have been on. This game calcs to 149.8 so it really is a 20 Unit play. Only the second one this month. 20 Unit plays are 14-11 YTD.