Stuck on my phone as computer is down...... Seattle around 67% total is 64% over
Thanks and good luck tonight my friends.....
SUNDAY RESULTS (3-6) / NFL STAR PLAYS (8-6) 57% / NFL RECORD (30-22) 58%
One of those kinda weekends..... look good early in the game and then come the final 2 minutes. Been in the game a long time and glad to get it out of my system early.
Buffalo -6.5 (Lost)
*Arizona -7 (Lost)
*Denver -6.5 (Lost)
Kansas City +3.5 (Lost)
Oakland Over 44.5 (Lost)
*Green Bay Over 48 (Lost)
Cleveland +5.5 (Easy Winner 27-30)
Green Bay -7.5 (Blowout Winner 17-3)
Atlanta Over 47.5 (Mega Blowout Winner 69 Points)
XS
One of those kinda weekends..... look good early in the game and then come the final 2 minutes. Been in the game a long time and glad to get it out of my system early.
Buffalo -6.5 (Lost)
*Arizona -7 (Lost)
*Denver -6.5 (Lost)
Kansas City +3.5 (Lost)
Oakland Over 44.5 (Lost)
*Green Bay Over 48 (Lost)
Cleveland +5.5 (Easy Winner 27-30)
Green Bay -7.5 (Blowout Winner 17-3)
Atlanta Over 47.5 (Mega Blowout Winner 69 Points)
XS
SUNDAY RESULTS (1-2) / NFL STAR PLAYS (8-7) / NFL RECORD (31-24) 56%
Here are my results from Sunday......
*Dallas +3 (Lost)
Dallas Over 49 -103 (Lost 46 Points)
Dallas (1st Half) +2.5 (Easy Winner 10-7)
MONDAY RESULTS (0-2) / NFL STAR PLAYS (8-8) / NFL RECORD (31-26) 54%
More results from week 4.......
*Seattle Over 43 (Lost)
Seattle (1st Half) Over 21.5 (Lost)
Later,
XS
Here are my results from Sunday......
*Dallas +3 (Lost)
Dallas Over 49 -103 (Lost 46 Points)
Dallas (1st Half) +2.5 (Easy Winner 10-7)
MONDAY RESULTS (0-2) / NFL STAR PLAYS (8-8) / NFL RECORD (31-26) 54%
More results from week 4.......
*Seattle Over 43 (Lost)
Seattle (1st Half) Over 21.5 (Lost)
Later,
XS
Football bettors can't miss these important NFL Week 5 line moves
St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers – Open: -9, Move: -10
The Packers are earning these lofty spreads and find another substantial pile of chalk waiting for their Week 5 bettors. Some sportsbooks opened as low as Green Bay -9, with some even dealing -8.5 at the mid-week points, but the majority are at -9.5 or -10.
John Avello, sportsbook director for the Wynn Las Vegas, opened the Cheeseheads as 9.5-point favorites and has stayed on that line as of Wednesday. He feels good about his current spread, but knows his action on this game will be split between the squares and sharps come Sunday.
“I don’t know if this number will be going up any higher,” Avello tells Covers. “The public isn’t going to bet the Rams but the sharps may bet them in this one.”
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans – Open: +3.5, Move: +2.5
Early sharp money on Tennessee knocked this spread down, dropping it past a field goal, with the Titans coming off the bye week and the Bills hitting the road for only the second time this season. Avello believes this spread isn’t done moving and expects to make another adjustment before kickoff.
“I could see this going back to three,” says Avello. “The early sharp money was on Tennessee but I could see them switching roles with this one.”
Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -9, Move: -7
Regardless of their undefeated record, wiseguys are predicting a down game from the Falcons, who opened as high as 9-point favorites. Avello’s book opened Atlanta -8.5 and immediate got hit by money on Washington, trimming their spread to -7.5. He notes that there was similar movement against the Falcons in last Sunday’s game against Houston, dropping Atlanta from 6.5-point chalk to a closing spread of -4.
“This could reach seven,” says Avello. “The NFL sharps are always looking for an underdog that will stay in the game, and they see that in Washington. They think that Atlanta is due for a downer.”
At online market, Sportsbook.ag, director of risk management Peter Childs says this game is shaping up to be a “Sharps vs. Squares” battle, with wiseguys grabbing the dog early and the public coming back on Atlanta at the discounted spread.
“There’s no question this is a game where the ‘pros are against the joes’, as in sharp money is against Joe Q Public,” Childs tells Covers. “So at this point, we have no problem taking the action on the Falcons at -7.5 and I suspect this is going to be one of our bigger games come Sunday.”
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -2.5, Move: -3
In Las Vegas, the opener of Bengals -2.5 has jumped to a field goal with money coming in on undefeated Cincinnati versus a Seattle squad that’s lucky to be 2-2 after a Monday night fiasco finish. Avello was a bit stunned by the money showing up fading the Seahawks.
“You’d never see a move like this in past seasons,” he says.
Online, Sportsbook.ag opened Cincinnati -3 but expected money on the underdog, so they juiced the Seahawks +3 (-120). But when action poured in on the Bengals, they quickly dropped the price on the underdog to +3 (Even), which has started to stir up Seattle bets.
“I understand the sharp money on the Bengals for several reasons. It’s a real bad spot for the Seahawks. They’re off a dramatic - and controversial - win at home on Monday night. Now they have to travel east, play an early East Coast start time all on a short week.”
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys – Open: +7, Move: +10
This game has jumped as much as three points if you like to shop around. The Patriots are coming off a bye week following an impressive 3-0 start to the season. Dallas battled hard in an overtime loss to New Orleans Sunday night, and while it is missing some major offensive cogs, the Cowboys do return some top defensive players.
According to Childs, who opened New England -8 and went to -10 in less than two days, the Patriots will undoubtedly be the most-bet teams – and biggest decision for bookmakers – in Week 5.
“Within 48 hours, we moved two full points on an NFL game, that hardly happens unless it’s injury related and this line move wasn’t,” says Childs. “If anything, the Cowboys get healthier on defense with (Greg) Hardy and (Rolando) McClain coming back from suspension. So this is bettors backing (Tom) Brady and (Bill) Bellicheck off a bye and fading the Cowboys and their starting QB Brandon Weeden.”
St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers – Open: -9, Move: -10
The Packers are earning these lofty spreads and find another substantial pile of chalk waiting for their Week 5 bettors. Some sportsbooks opened as low as Green Bay -9, with some even dealing -8.5 at the mid-week points, but the majority are at -9.5 or -10.
John Avello, sportsbook director for the Wynn Las Vegas, opened the Cheeseheads as 9.5-point favorites and has stayed on that line as of Wednesday. He feels good about his current spread, but knows his action on this game will be split between the squares and sharps come Sunday.
“I don’t know if this number will be going up any higher,” Avello tells Covers. “The public isn’t going to bet the Rams but the sharps may bet them in this one.”
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans – Open: +3.5, Move: +2.5
Early sharp money on Tennessee knocked this spread down, dropping it past a field goal, with the Titans coming off the bye week and the Bills hitting the road for only the second time this season. Avello believes this spread isn’t done moving and expects to make another adjustment before kickoff.
“I could see this going back to three,” says Avello. “The early sharp money was on Tennessee but I could see them switching roles with this one.”
Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -9, Move: -7
Regardless of their undefeated record, wiseguys are predicting a down game from the Falcons, who opened as high as 9-point favorites. Avello’s book opened Atlanta -8.5 and immediate got hit by money on Washington, trimming their spread to -7.5. He notes that there was similar movement against the Falcons in last Sunday’s game against Houston, dropping Atlanta from 6.5-point chalk to a closing spread of -4.
“This could reach seven,” says Avello. “The NFL sharps are always looking for an underdog that will stay in the game, and they see that in Washington. They think that Atlanta is due for a downer.”
At online market, Sportsbook.ag, director of risk management Peter Childs says this game is shaping up to be a “Sharps vs. Squares” battle, with wiseguys grabbing the dog early and the public coming back on Atlanta at the discounted spread.
“There’s no question this is a game where the ‘pros are against the joes’, as in sharp money is against Joe Q Public,” Childs tells Covers. “So at this point, we have no problem taking the action on the Falcons at -7.5 and I suspect this is going to be one of our bigger games come Sunday.”
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -2.5, Move: -3
In Las Vegas, the opener of Bengals -2.5 has jumped to a field goal with money coming in on undefeated Cincinnati versus a Seattle squad that’s lucky to be 2-2 after a Monday night fiasco finish. Avello was a bit stunned by the money showing up fading the Seahawks.
“You’d never see a move like this in past seasons,” he says.
Online, Sportsbook.ag opened Cincinnati -3 but expected money on the underdog, so they juiced the Seahawks +3 (-120). But when action poured in on the Bengals, they quickly dropped the price on the underdog to +3 (Even), which has started to stir up Seattle bets.
“I understand the sharp money on the Bengals for several reasons. It’s a real bad spot for the Seahawks. They’re off a dramatic - and controversial - win at home on Monday night. Now they have to travel east, play an early East Coast start time all on a short week.”
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys – Open: +7, Move: +10
This game has jumped as much as three points if you like to shop around. The Patriots are coming off a bye week following an impressive 3-0 start to the season. Dallas battled hard in an overtime loss to New Orleans Sunday night, and while it is missing some major offensive cogs, the Cowboys do return some top defensive players.
According to Childs, who opened New England -8 and went to -10 in less than two days, the Patriots will undoubtedly be the most-bet teams – and biggest decision for bookmakers – in Week 5.
“Within 48 hours, we moved two full points on an NFL game, that hardly happens unless it’s injury related and this line move wasn’t,” says Childs. “If anything, the Cowboys get healthier on defense with (Greg) Hardy and (Rolando) McClain coming back from suspension. So this is bettors backing (Tom) Brady and (Bill) Bellicheck off a bye and fading the Cowboys and their starting QB Brandon Weeden.”
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Colts at Texans
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (Pick, 44.5)
The Indianapolis Colts are hoping Andrew Luck will be back under center when they visit the struggling Houston Texans on Thursday night in an AFC South matchup. Luck missed the first game of his career in last week's 16-13 overtime win over Jacksonville due an injured right shoulder, but Colts coach Chuck Pagano said his quarterback is "trending in the right direction."
Luck told reporters he is not giving any "credence" to a report that he is dealing with a subluxation of his throwing shoulder and said he is preparing to start against Houston. "I don’t think I’m necessarily where I would want to be today in a perfect, perfect world. But better every day," Luck said. The Texans are having quarterback issues of their own, but coach Bill O'Brien said he is sticking with Ryan Mallett, who replaced Brian Hoyer after Week 1. Indianapolis has won five in a row over the Texans and 15 straight against division opponents.
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.
LINE HISTORY: The game has opened at a Pick, with Andrew Luck's status still up in the air. The total has opened at 44.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Colts - QB A. Luck (probable Thursday, shoulder), QB M. Hasselbeck (probable Thursday, illness), CB G. Toler (probable Thursday, neck), TE D. Allen (probable Thursday, ankle), RB F. Gore (probable Thursday, foot), CB V. Davis (probable Thursday, foot), RB T. Varga (questionable Thursday, concussion), S M. Adams (questionable Thursday, neck), LB J. Freeman (questionable Thursday, groin), LB B. Werner (questionable Thursday, hamstring), DE H. Anderson (questionable Thursday, foot), DE K. Langford (questionable Thursday, back).
Texans - RB A. Foster (probable Thursday, groin), LB B. Cushing (probable Thursday, foot), RB C. Polk (probable Thursday, knee), T D. Brown (probable Thursday, hand), S E. Pleasant (probable Thursday, thigh), LB J. Clowney (probable Thursday, knee), CB J. Joseph (probable Thursday, hip), S L. Ballentine (questionable Thursday, knee), RB J. Grimes (questionable Thursday, knee), LB J. Dent (questionable Thursday, hamstring), S Q. Demps (questionable Thursday, hamstring), WR C. Shorts (questionable Thursday, shoulder), LB W. Mercilus (questionable Thursday, thigh), WR N. Washington (doubtful Thursday, hamstring).
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Colts (-1) - Texans (+3) + home field (-3) = Texans +1
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "After watching the Colts barely escape at home against Jacksonville, it's very clear. Without Andrew Luck in the lineup, Indy is no better than the Jaguars.And Despite an ongoing quarterback controversy, a struggling offensive line and no running game to speak of, the Texans continue to play at the fastest pace in the NFL on offense."
ABOUT THE COLTS (2-2): Wide receiver Andre Johnson was a dominant force during a 12-year tenure with the Texans, racking up 1,012 career receptions, but he has labored in his first season with Indianapolis and does not have a catch in either of his past two games. Running back Frank Gore is also off to a slow start with the Colts, who survived three missed field goals by the Jaguars before prevailing last week behind 40-year-old quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. Indianapolis' defense has been vulnerable through the air, allowing 268 yards passing per game while registering only five sacks.
ABOUT THE TEXANS (1-3): Mallett was benched in favor of Hoyer during last week's 48-21 loss at Atlanta after completing 12-of-27 passes for a season-low 150 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. O'Brien also is sticking with Mallett despite the fact that he owns a completion percentage of 51.8 percent. Arian Foster made his season debut after returning from groin surgery, but failed to provide a lift to the ground game with only 10 yards rushing on eight carries. Third-year wideout DeAndre Hopkins has 31 catches and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games.
TRENDS:
* Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Houston.
* Home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
COVERS CONSENSUS: The public is split right down the middle for this game at this point.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (Pick, 44.5)
The Indianapolis Colts are hoping Andrew Luck will be back under center when they visit the struggling Houston Texans on Thursday night in an AFC South matchup. Luck missed the first game of his career in last week's 16-13 overtime win over Jacksonville due an injured right shoulder, but Colts coach Chuck Pagano said his quarterback is "trending in the right direction."
Luck told reporters he is not giving any "credence" to a report that he is dealing with a subluxation of his throwing shoulder and said he is preparing to start against Houston. "I don’t think I’m necessarily where I would want to be today in a perfect, perfect world. But better every day," Luck said. The Texans are having quarterback issues of their own, but coach Bill O'Brien said he is sticking with Ryan Mallett, who replaced Brian Hoyer after Week 1. Indianapolis has won five in a row over the Texans and 15 straight against division opponents.
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.
LINE HISTORY: The game has opened at a Pick, with Andrew Luck's status still up in the air. The total has opened at 44.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Colts - QB A. Luck (probable Thursday, shoulder), QB M. Hasselbeck (probable Thursday, illness), CB G. Toler (probable Thursday, neck), TE D. Allen (probable Thursday, ankle), RB F. Gore (probable Thursday, foot), CB V. Davis (probable Thursday, foot), RB T. Varga (questionable Thursday, concussion), S M. Adams (questionable Thursday, neck), LB J. Freeman (questionable Thursday, groin), LB B. Werner (questionable Thursday, hamstring), DE H. Anderson (questionable Thursday, foot), DE K. Langford (questionable Thursday, back).
Texans - RB A. Foster (probable Thursday, groin), LB B. Cushing (probable Thursday, foot), RB C. Polk (probable Thursday, knee), T D. Brown (probable Thursday, hand), S E. Pleasant (probable Thursday, thigh), LB J. Clowney (probable Thursday, knee), CB J. Joseph (probable Thursday, hip), S L. Ballentine (questionable Thursday, knee), RB J. Grimes (questionable Thursday, knee), LB J. Dent (questionable Thursday, hamstring), S Q. Demps (questionable Thursday, hamstring), WR C. Shorts (questionable Thursday, shoulder), LB W. Mercilus (questionable Thursday, thigh), WR N. Washington (doubtful Thursday, hamstring).
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Colts (-1) - Texans (+3) + home field (-3) = Texans +1
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "After watching the Colts barely escape at home against Jacksonville, it's very clear. Without Andrew Luck in the lineup, Indy is no better than the Jaguars.And Despite an ongoing quarterback controversy, a struggling offensive line and no running game to speak of, the Texans continue to play at the fastest pace in the NFL on offense."
ABOUT THE COLTS (2-2): Wide receiver Andre Johnson was a dominant force during a 12-year tenure with the Texans, racking up 1,012 career receptions, but he has labored in his first season with Indianapolis and does not have a catch in either of his past two games. Running back Frank Gore is also off to a slow start with the Colts, who survived three missed field goals by the Jaguars before prevailing last week behind 40-year-old quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. Indianapolis' defense has been vulnerable through the air, allowing 268 yards passing per game while registering only five sacks.
ABOUT THE TEXANS (1-3): Mallett was benched in favor of Hoyer during last week's 48-21 loss at Atlanta after completing 12-of-27 passes for a season-low 150 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. O'Brien also is sticking with Mallett despite the fact that he owns a completion percentage of 51.8 percent. Arian Foster made his season debut after returning from groin surgery, but failed to provide a lift to the ground game with only 10 yards rushing on eight carries. Third-year wideout DeAndre Hopkins has 31 catches and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games.
TRENDS:
* Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Houston.
* Home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
COVERS CONSENSUS: The public is split right down the middle for this game at this point.
| [h=1]NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h] | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (ET) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Thursday, October 8, 2015 | |||||||
| 8:25pm odds | (301) Indianapolis Colts (302) Houston Texans | 3867 3079 |
| 1514 844 |
| O1440 U2546 |
|
| [h=1]NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h] | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (ET) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Sunday, October 11, 2015 | |||||||
| 1:00pm odds | (451) Jacksonville Jaguars (452) Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3733 2442 |
| 1201 316 |
| O1812 U1411 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (453) Buffalo Bills (454) Tennessee Titans | 7787 2657 |
| 1634 1386 |
| O3716 U1735 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (455) Cleveland Browns (456) Baltimore Ravens | 3408 4583 |
| 921 1085 |
| O1712 U2090 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (457) Washington Redskins (458) Atlanta Falcons | 2644 8592 |
| 733 2218 |
| O3652 U1378 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (459) Chicago Bears (460) Kansas City Chiefs | 4068 4744 |
| 817 1529 |
| O2854 U1387 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (461) New Orleans Saints (462) Philadelphia Eagles | 4885 2876 |
| 1529 494 |
| O2177 U1803 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (463) St. Louis Rams (464) Green Bay Packers | 4342 7573 |
| 812 2443 |
| O3024 U2193 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (465) Seattle Seahawks (466) Cincinnati Bengals | 3916 4985 |
| 1628 713 |
| O1791 U2704 |
|
| 4:05pm odds | (467) Arizona Cardinals (468) Detroit Lions | 7337 2232 |
| 1757 880 |
| O3392 U1443 |
|
| 4:25pm odds | (469) New England Patriots (470) Dallas Cowboys | 14551 2053 |
| 3977 946 |
| O6259 U1592 |
|
| 4:25pm odds | (471) Denver Broncos (472) Oakland Raiders | 6702 2478 |
| 1912 753 |
| O3280 U1400 |
|
| 8:30pm odds | (473) San Francisco 49ers (474) New York Giants | 3125 6965 |
| 941 1641 |
| O2905 U1803 |
|
| Monday, October 12, 2015 | |||||||
| 8:30pm odds | (475) Pittsburgh Steelers (476) San Diego Chargers | 2590 3478 |
| 762 693 |
| O1774 U1361 |
|
| [h=1]NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h] | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (ET) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Sunday, October 11, 2015 | |||||||
| 1:00pm odds | (451) Jacksonville Jaguars (452) Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6944 4116 |
| 1989 742 |
| O3058 U2144 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (453) Buffalo Bills (454) Tennessee Titans | 12595 4474 |
| 2829 1818 |
| O5715 U2284 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (455) Cleveland Browns (456) Baltimore Ravens | 5575 7713 |
| 1361 2203 |
| O2844 U3081 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (457) Washington Redskins (458) Atlanta Falcons | 4385 15805 |
| 1176 4357 |
| O6073 U2287 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (459) Chicago Bears (460) Kansas City Chiefs | 7358 8528 |
| 1548 2906 |
| O4812 U2206 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (461) New Orleans Saints (462) Philadelphia Eagles | 8102 5005 |
| 2378 1015 |
| O3664 U2495 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (463) St. Louis Rams (464) Green Bay Packers | 7127 13250 |
| 1371 4564 |
| O5692 U2738 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (465) Seattle Seahawks (466) Cincinnati Bengals | 6908 9074 |
| 2687 1373 |
| O3479 U3706 |
|
| 4:05pm odds | (467) Arizona Cardinals (468) Detroit Lions | 14287 4480 |
| 3499 1980 |
| O6531 U2651 |
|
| 4:25pm odds | (469) New England Patriots (470) Dallas Cowboys | 24955 4053 |
| 7160 1909 |
| O10884 U2667 |
|
| 4:25pm odds | (471) Denver Broncos (472) Oakland Raiders | 12406 5175 |
| 3798 1594 |
| O5822 U2844 |
|
| 8:30pm odds | (473) San Francisco 49ers (474) New York Giants | 5533 12455 |
| 1801 3005 |
| O4936 U3183 |
|
