For those that worry about public and sharpe action will go broke more times than not..... It's to easy..... Another winning week in the books my friend. Thanks for the kind words.
MONDAY (3-0) / NFL STAR PLAYS (8-2) 80% / NFL RECORD (27-15) 64%
Another good night hope you all cashed my friends!!! Big plays cashing big!!!
Green Bay -4.5 -106 (Easy Winner 38-28)
*Green Bay Over 47.5 (Mega Blowout Winner 66 Points)
Green Bay (1st Half) Over 23.5 (Easy Winner 31 Points)
Later,
XS
Another good night hope you all cashed my friends!!! Big plays cashing big!!!
Green Bay -4.5 -106 (Easy Winner 38-28)
*Green Bay Over 47.5 (Mega Blowout Winner 66 Points)
Green Bay (1st Half) Over 23.5 (Easy Winner 31 Points)
Later,
XS
Football bettors must react quickly to these NFL Week 4 odds
Spread to bet now: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+1.5)
Based on what we’ve seen of the Dolphins this season, it’s hard to believe that Miami was actually a slight favorite in this one before early action flipped the line. The Dolphins are one of several NFL dumpster fires this season, and one more mail-it-in performance – especially at home – figures to cost Joe Philbin his job.
It’s hard to see how Miami moves the ball in this one against a solid Jets defense that has given up the fewest points in the AFC through three games this season. New York is one bad quarter (21 given up to the Eagles in the second period) away from being 3-0 and the surprise team of the league.
Spread to wait on: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (+8.5)
This one could get ugly, and the seven in 10 fans laying money on the Packers in early wagering could push this one up even more. The 49ers defense actually looked decent in winning the opener at home (against Minnesota), but that has been followed by two crushing losses in which San Francisco allowed a total of 90 points (43 to Pittsburgh, 47 to Arizona). The Niners seem incapable of coming even close to stopping any team with a half-decent offense, so it should be interesting what it can do against the Packers.
Total to watch: St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (42)
The Cardinals are off and running with dominant wins over the Saints, Bears and 49ers. None of those three figure to sniff of the playoffs this season, but the Cardinals still like the way the offense is humming – even if QB Carson Palmer is a little long in the tooth and may not go the full 16 games.
Granted, the Rams are dead last in the league in offense and have only 16 total points in the last two games. But St. Louis is reportedly planning some new wrinkles on offense to kick-start what has so far been an unimaginative offense, so 42 looks easily attainable in this one.
Spread to bet now: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+1.5)
Based on what we’ve seen of the Dolphins this season, it’s hard to believe that Miami was actually a slight favorite in this one before early action flipped the line. The Dolphins are one of several NFL dumpster fires this season, and one more mail-it-in performance – especially at home – figures to cost Joe Philbin his job.
It’s hard to see how Miami moves the ball in this one against a solid Jets defense that has given up the fewest points in the AFC through three games this season. New York is one bad quarter (21 given up to the Eagles in the second period) away from being 3-0 and the surprise team of the league.
Spread to wait on: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (+8.5)
This one could get ugly, and the seven in 10 fans laying money on the Packers in early wagering could push this one up even more. The 49ers defense actually looked decent in winning the opener at home (against Minnesota), but that has been followed by two crushing losses in which San Francisco allowed a total of 90 points (43 to Pittsburgh, 47 to Arizona). The Niners seem incapable of coming even close to stopping any team with a half-decent offense, so it should be interesting what it can do against the Packers.
Total to watch: St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (42)
The Cardinals are off and running with dominant wins over the Saints, Bears and 49ers. None of those three figure to sniff of the playoffs this season, but the Cardinals still like the way the offense is humming – even if QB Carson Palmer is a little long in the tooth and may not go the full 16 games.
Granted, the Rams are dead last in the league in offense and have only 16 total points in the last two games. But St. Louis is reportedly planning some new wrinkles on offense to kick-start what has so far been an unimaginative offense, so 42 looks easily attainable in this one.
Why do I win at betting NFL but not college football? by Covers
When it comes to the North American sports betting scene, football rules the world. It's college on Saturdays and NFL on Sundays - two days that hold priority over the rest of the week’s wagering schedule.
So maybe you’re killing it in college but can’t seem to win Sundays. Or you dominate the pro game but the NCAA kids are draining your bankroll like you’re the one putting them through school. What the hell is wrong – it’s all football. Right? So why do I suck at one and not the other?
It’s an age-old question sports bettors of all shapes (squares) and sizes (whales) have asked themselves.
I win at NFL, but suck at capping college…
Too many teams
There are 128 FBS football programs out there and umpteen FCS schools making guest appearances during the course of the season. If you think you can get a good grip on all of them, you’re losing before you even place a bet.
If you’re golden on the NFL gridiron but can’t seem to have Saturday success, perhaps you’re getting in over your head with the 70-something college games available each week. You’re used to 32 NFL teams, so why not narrow down your strike zone and concentrate on just a conference or two.
Focus on learning as much as you can about the Big Ten, ACC or Pac-12. Conference play is kicking off, so if you’ve been getting smashed with all the non-conference clashes and FCS punching bags, now is the best time to trim your pickings.
Bigger mismatches
When you bet on NFL games, there’s a certain standard you expect when the whistle blows. These dudes are the best of the best, so you’re going to get a fair shake in just about every game.
The same can’t be said for college. Power programs like Alabama, Oregon and Ohio State have more talent picking splinters out of their butts on the bench than leagues like the Sun Belt and C-USA have on their All-Conference teams.
A double-digit dog is a rare commodity in the pros but an every-week occurrence in the college ranks. And trying to make sense of a 30-point NCAAF spread is like reading IKEA instructions in Japanese for the hardcore NFL fan. Where do we start?
Even within the same conference, a school like Georgia is on a completely different level than a program like Vanderbilt. Guys go to UGA to make the jump to the pros. Guys go to Vanderbilt to cure Ebola. Push comes to shove on the football field, the guy in the lab coat tends to get the points - lots of them.
Approach to games
Many successful NFL cappers build a career on going against the grain. The media have been buzzing about the Cardinals and their dominance over their first three opponents, and the public is jumping all over Arizona, moving the spread from -6 to -7. Screw you, I’m fading the Cards.
Contrarian capping holds a lot more water on Sundays than it does Saturday. You might be able to make some money walking into the wind in NFL, but college demands a much more wide-open approach. It may sound like a cliché, but every game is different – especially when it comes to college football.
For example, in the NFL, an injury to a starting lineman may not have any impact on how a team performs, with a stacked depth chart and experience waiting in reserves. Hit a college team with the same injury to a starter and you start bringing in red-shirt freshmen who can’t even grow a mustache yet.
Others factors that have more importance to college bettors are coaching matchups, momentum, and revenge spots and rivalry games. It’s easy to get a 20-something, testosterone-fueled meat head hyped up about kicking someone’s ass just because that’s school tradition. Get some!
That same motivational technique doesn’t quite have the same effect on a grown-ass man trying to put his kids through private school with performance incentives plastered all over his multi-million dollar NFL contract.
I’m awesome at college, but crap at NFL…
Sharper lines/Public influence
You’re a sucker fish or one of those weirdo lobster things in your dentist’s fish tank. In other words, you’re a bottom feeder feasting on the crap at the bottom of a sea of college football teams.
You swoop in and snatch up Mountain West Conference opening odds and you count down the seconds until MAC totals hit the board in the middle of the week. You’re like one of those crazy extreme couponing moms that gets a high on the best deals and takes advantage of the softer numbers showing up in the mid-major leagues.
But when you go bargain shopping in the NFL, where there are only 32 teams and oddsmakers know them inside and out, you aren’t finding the same early value in the odds.
Your Saturday college plays swung an average of four points since post and you’re looking to middle the hell out of your bookie. Your Sunday plays, on the other hand, have inched a combined 1.5 points since hitting the board and there’s zero wiggle room on those wagers. If you settle for one more NFL push you’re going to pooch punt your iPhone into the neighbor’s pool.
And when you do find an NFL wager with extra value stuffed inside the crust, it’s not long until the public sucks everything good out of it and swings the vig. You could end up paying a lot more for a wager you liked Tuesday but made on Wednesday.
For some small-conference college games, you may be a handful of bettors getting involved at the book. For NFL matchups, you’re just one of the thousands of faces to inch your way to the counter and take your ticket.
Level of Parity
We’ve heard the “On any given Sunday…” spiel over and over again, but it seems the old football hymn speaks truer in recent years.
Sure, you have your elite teams, but not like you had 30 years ago – or even 10 or 15 years ago when teams like the Patriots and Rams were consistently giving a double scoop of points each week. We’ve already seen Baltimore take a tumble and Seattle and Indianapolis look like run of the mill squads.
College football cappers getting down on the pros can often underestimate just how good each and every NFL team is, especially when you’re used to the canyon-like divide between many of the top teams in college football and the schools ranked second and third behind them in the conference.
“When you take the top two or three teams and the bottom two or three teams out of the equation, any team can beat any team on any given Sunday,” says Covers Expert Marc Lawrence. “You simply need to put tape over the names of the teams and handicap accordingly.”
Team news
Old school handicappers used to get newspapers from all over the country, trying to find that one story from the team’s beat reporter that would give them the inside edge over the oddsmakers. A key injury, a coach’s game plan, or a bad week of practice – anything that could be used as ammo when placing your bets.
Now, the internet makes all those papers – from Spokane to Syracuse – available at our finger tips and oddsmakers are usually the first ones to find out when news breaks. However, the opportunity is still there when it comes to the small college programs, who have one local guy and maybe a student reporter posting info on Twitter.
While you can squeeze out some valuable tidbits from college football team news, the NFL has such a huge blanket of coverage that you get updates straight to your phone if a backup WR sneezes.
Trying to base your bets on what you read in the newspaper, online, off Twitter or heard being shouted at full blast on ESPN – seriously guys, did everyone just come from a rock concert? – is like asking for cheese and sauce when you order a pizza. It’s already been factored in.
If you’re able to scoop your bookie when a NFL suspension suddenly comes down or a starting pro QB is ruled out, more power to you. But chances are the game will be off the board or already adjusted by the time your browser finally loads.
When it comes to the North American sports betting scene, football rules the world. It's college on Saturdays and NFL on Sundays - two days that hold priority over the rest of the week’s wagering schedule.
So maybe you’re killing it in college but can’t seem to win Sundays. Or you dominate the pro game but the NCAA kids are draining your bankroll like you’re the one putting them through school. What the hell is wrong – it’s all football. Right? So why do I suck at one and not the other?
It’s an age-old question sports bettors of all shapes (squares) and sizes (whales) have asked themselves.
I win at NFL, but suck at capping college…
Too many teams
There are 128 FBS football programs out there and umpteen FCS schools making guest appearances during the course of the season. If you think you can get a good grip on all of them, you’re losing before you even place a bet.
If you’re golden on the NFL gridiron but can’t seem to have Saturday success, perhaps you’re getting in over your head with the 70-something college games available each week. You’re used to 32 NFL teams, so why not narrow down your strike zone and concentrate on just a conference or two.
Focus on learning as much as you can about the Big Ten, ACC or Pac-12. Conference play is kicking off, so if you’ve been getting smashed with all the non-conference clashes and FCS punching bags, now is the best time to trim your pickings.
Bigger mismatches
When you bet on NFL games, there’s a certain standard you expect when the whistle blows. These dudes are the best of the best, so you’re going to get a fair shake in just about every game.
The same can’t be said for college. Power programs like Alabama, Oregon and Ohio State have more talent picking splinters out of their butts on the bench than leagues like the Sun Belt and C-USA have on their All-Conference teams.
A double-digit dog is a rare commodity in the pros but an every-week occurrence in the college ranks. And trying to make sense of a 30-point NCAAF spread is like reading IKEA instructions in Japanese for the hardcore NFL fan. Where do we start?
Even within the same conference, a school like Georgia is on a completely different level than a program like Vanderbilt. Guys go to UGA to make the jump to the pros. Guys go to Vanderbilt to cure Ebola. Push comes to shove on the football field, the guy in the lab coat tends to get the points - lots of them.
Approach to games
Many successful NFL cappers build a career on going against the grain. The media have been buzzing about the Cardinals and their dominance over their first three opponents, and the public is jumping all over Arizona, moving the spread from -6 to -7. Screw you, I’m fading the Cards.
Contrarian capping holds a lot more water on Sundays than it does Saturday. You might be able to make some money walking into the wind in NFL, but college demands a much more wide-open approach. It may sound like a cliché, but every game is different – especially when it comes to college football.
For example, in the NFL, an injury to a starting lineman may not have any impact on how a team performs, with a stacked depth chart and experience waiting in reserves. Hit a college team with the same injury to a starter and you start bringing in red-shirt freshmen who can’t even grow a mustache yet.
Others factors that have more importance to college bettors are coaching matchups, momentum, and revenge spots and rivalry games. It’s easy to get a 20-something, testosterone-fueled meat head hyped up about kicking someone’s ass just because that’s school tradition. Get some!
That same motivational technique doesn’t quite have the same effect on a grown-ass man trying to put his kids through private school with performance incentives plastered all over his multi-million dollar NFL contract.
I’m awesome at college, but crap at NFL…
Sharper lines/Public influence
You’re a sucker fish or one of those weirdo lobster things in your dentist’s fish tank. In other words, you’re a bottom feeder feasting on the crap at the bottom of a sea of college football teams.
You swoop in and snatch up Mountain West Conference opening odds and you count down the seconds until MAC totals hit the board in the middle of the week. You’re like one of those crazy extreme couponing moms that gets a high on the best deals and takes advantage of the softer numbers showing up in the mid-major leagues.
But when you go bargain shopping in the NFL, where there are only 32 teams and oddsmakers know them inside and out, you aren’t finding the same early value in the odds.
Your Saturday college plays swung an average of four points since post and you’re looking to middle the hell out of your bookie. Your Sunday plays, on the other hand, have inched a combined 1.5 points since hitting the board and there’s zero wiggle room on those wagers. If you settle for one more NFL push you’re going to pooch punt your iPhone into the neighbor’s pool.
And when you do find an NFL wager with extra value stuffed inside the crust, it’s not long until the public sucks everything good out of it and swings the vig. You could end up paying a lot more for a wager you liked Tuesday but made on Wednesday.
For some small-conference college games, you may be a handful of bettors getting involved at the book. For NFL matchups, you’re just one of the thousands of faces to inch your way to the counter and take your ticket.
Level of Parity
We’ve heard the “On any given Sunday…” spiel over and over again, but it seems the old football hymn speaks truer in recent years.
Sure, you have your elite teams, but not like you had 30 years ago – or even 10 or 15 years ago when teams like the Patriots and Rams were consistently giving a double scoop of points each week. We’ve already seen Baltimore take a tumble and Seattle and Indianapolis look like run of the mill squads.
College football cappers getting down on the pros can often underestimate just how good each and every NFL team is, especially when you’re used to the canyon-like divide between many of the top teams in college football and the schools ranked second and third behind them in the conference.
“When you take the top two or three teams and the bottom two or three teams out of the equation, any team can beat any team on any given Sunday,” says Covers Expert Marc Lawrence. “You simply need to put tape over the names of the teams and handicap accordingly.”
Team news
Old school handicappers used to get newspapers from all over the country, trying to find that one story from the team’s beat reporter that would give them the inside edge over the oddsmakers. A key injury, a coach’s game plan, or a bad week of practice – anything that could be used as ammo when placing your bets.
Now, the internet makes all those papers – from Spokane to Syracuse – available at our finger tips and oddsmakers are usually the first ones to find out when news breaks. However, the opportunity is still there when it comes to the small college programs, who have one local guy and maybe a student reporter posting info on Twitter.
While you can squeeze out some valuable tidbits from college football team news, the NFL has such a huge blanket of coverage that you get updates straight to your phone if a backup WR sneezes.
Trying to base your bets on what you read in the newspaper, online, off Twitter or heard being shouted at full blast on ESPN – seriously guys, did everyone just come from a rock concert? – is like asking for cheese and sauce when you order a pizza. It’s already been factored in.
If you’re able to scoop your bookie when a NFL suspension suddenly comes down or a starting pro QB is ruled out, more power to you. But chances are the game will be off the board or already adjusted by the time your browser finally loads.
Sportsbook shares the biggest bets for NFL Week 4 by COvers
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -5, Move: -7
The betting public is eating up the undefeated Falcons in Week 4, moving this spread as much as two points as of Wednesday. Atlanta improved to 3-0 with a dominating second half against a damaged Dallas teams last Sunday, and has beaten up on NFC East opponents through the first three weeks of the schedule.
At Sportsbook, the Falcons went up at -6 and public money blasted the home side to the key number of a touchdown. While Atlanta’s hot start has plenty of sway with bettors, according to their head supervisor of risk management, Peter Childs, it may be more about fading the Texans in this spot.
“They haven’t looked good in any of their previous three games, losing outright to the Chiefs and Panthers before beating a very bad Tampa team at home,” says Childs. Even in their win and cover against the Bucs, the Texans didn’t look impressive at all and the public isn’t impressed with this Texans team whatsoever.”
Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears – Open: +2.5, Move: +3
Two teams going in opposite directions clash in the Windy City Sunday, and the betting action has reflected that contrast of fortunes. The Raiders are riding a two-game winning streak, scoring 37 and 27 points in those contests and have been bumped to field-goal favorites with one-sided money on the road team.
“We opened the Raiders -2.5 and literally every single bet we wrote at that number was on the Raiders,” says Childs. “We realized very early that 2.5 was just too short of a price and we immediately went to three flat on the game. At three we’ve seen a bit of Bears money, but action is still heavy on the Raiders at -3 so just this morning we went to -3 (-115) on the Raiders.”
Childs says that even though 80 percent of the action is on Oakland, they will do their best to stay at the key number of three, knowing they would open themselves up for a middle if they jumped to Bears +3.5. He’s also not completely sold on the Raiders as a big favorite.
“Having played last week in Cleveland, back-to-back road games and back-to-back Eastern start times makes this a difficult spot for this young Raiders team,” he adds. “I think it’s asking a lot for them to lay three.”
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts – Open: 47, Move: 48.5
Total bettors have hammered this number with wagers on the Over after watching Jacksonville give up 51 points to New England. The Colts haven’t been able to get their once-mighty offense moving but did show signs of life in the fourth quarter against Tennessee Sunday, scoring 21 points in the final frame for a 35-33 to avoid starting the season 0-3.
“We opened the Jags-Colts total 47.5 and we saw immediate Over money and got to 48 early Sunday evening,” says Childs. “By Monday, we got to 48.5 and I see this total eventually closing 49 or higher.”
According to Sportsbook, 70 percent of the money is on the Over and with neither team showing much of a running game, and neither getting the job done on defense, this AFC South rivalry could quickly turn into a shootout.
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -5, Move: -7
The betting public is eating up the undefeated Falcons in Week 4, moving this spread as much as two points as of Wednesday. Atlanta improved to 3-0 with a dominating second half against a damaged Dallas teams last Sunday, and has beaten up on NFC East opponents through the first three weeks of the schedule.
At Sportsbook, the Falcons went up at -6 and public money blasted the home side to the key number of a touchdown. While Atlanta’s hot start has plenty of sway with bettors, according to their head supervisor of risk management, Peter Childs, it may be more about fading the Texans in this spot.
“They haven’t looked good in any of their previous three games, losing outright to the Chiefs and Panthers before beating a very bad Tampa team at home,” says Childs. Even in their win and cover against the Bucs, the Texans didn’t look impressive at all and the public isn’t impressed with this Texans team whatsoever.”
Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears – Open: +2.5, Move: +3
Two teams going in opposite directions clash in the Windy City Sunday, and the betting action has reflected that contrast of fortunes. The Raiders are riding a two-game winning streak, scoring 37 and 27 points in those contests and have been bumped to field-goal favorites with one-sided money on the road team.
“We opened the Raiders -2.5 and literally every single bet we wrote at that number was on the Raiders,” says Childs. “We realized very early that 2.5 was just too short of a price and we immediately went to three flat on the game. At three we’ve seen a bit of Bears money, but action is still heavy on the Raiders at -3 so just this morning we went to -3 (-115) on the Raiders.”
Childs says that even though 80 percent of the action is on Oakland, they will do their best to stay at the key number of three, knowing they would open themselves up for a middle if they jumped to Bears +3.5. He’s also not completely sold on the Raiders as a big favorite.
“Having played last week in Cleveland, back-to-back road games and back-to-back Eastern start times makes this a difficult spot for this young Raiders team,” he adds. “I think it’s asking a lot for them to lay three.”
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts – Open: 47, Move: 48.5
Total bettors have hammered this number with wagers on the Over after watching Jacksonville give up 51 points to New England. The Colts haven’t been able to get their once-mighty offense moving but did show signs of life in the fourth quarter against Tennessee Sunday, scoring 21 points in the final frame for a 35-33 to avoid starting the season 0-3.
“We opened the Jags-Colts total 47.5 and we saw immediate Over money and got to 48 early Sunday evening,” says Childs. “By Monday, we got to 48.5 and I see this total eventually closing 49 or higher.”
According to Sportsbook, 70 percent of the money is on the Over and with neither team showing much of a running game, and neither getting the job done on defense, this AFC South rivalry could quickly turn into a shootout.
Thursday Night Football betting preview: Ravens at Steelers
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, 44)
The Pittsburgh Steelers will be facing a desperate team that happens to be their most bitter rival, and they'll have to do so without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger when they host the winless Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night in an AFC North matchup. Roethlisberger suffered a sprained medial collateral ligament in his left knee on Sunday and is expected to be sidelined a minimum of four weeks.
Roethlisberger's absence will put the onus on Michael Vick, who was signed late in training camp after struggling in a backup role with the New York Jets last season. "It’s definitely going to change a lot of things because the offense is really run through (Roethlisberger)," said Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell, who returned to the lineup last week after serving a two-game suspension to open the season. The Ravens have concerns of their own, becoming the last team in NFL history to open a season 0-3 and putting Thursday's matchup in the must-win category. "We're going to find a way out," Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said. "We will come out of this the other way."
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFLN.
LINE HISTORY: The Roethlisberger-less Steelers opened as 2-point home dogs and have moved to +2.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has been bet down to 44.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (+1.5) - Steelers (+2) + home field (-3) = Steelers -2.5
INJURY REPORT:
Ravens - CB T. Walker (probable Thursday, thigh), DL C. Canty (questionable Thursday, calf), WR B. Perriman (out Thursday, knee), T E. Monroe (out Thursday, concussion), TE C. Gillmore (out Thursday, calf).
Steelers - LB J. Harrison (probable Thursday, thumb), CB C. Allen (questionable Thursday, head), LB R. Shazier (questionable Thursday, shoulder), DT D. McCuller (questionable Thursday, knee), TE M. Spaeth (doubtful Thursday, hand) QB B. Roethlisberger (out Thursday, knee).
WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy at gametime with a very slight 13 percent chance of rain in Pittsburgh. There will be a strong 10 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southern endzone.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The 0-3 Ravens find themselves in ‘must win territory’ when they invade Pittsburgh to meet the Steelers Thursday night. Oddly, with a break or two, Baltimore could be 3-0 as all three of their losses have been by six or fewer points. Pittsburgh remembers last year’s playoff loss to the Ravens but with Ben Roethlisberger’s knee injury they will forced to operate with Michael Vick behind center. Can't envision the Ravens 0-4, not with Vick 2-9 SU/ATS as a dog in his NFL career in games when his team is off a SUATS win."
ABOUT THE RAVENS (0-3, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Baltimore has lost its three games by a combined 16 points, including a 28-24 setback to division rival Cincinnati in which it blew a pair of leads in the final seven minutes. Joe Flacco threw for 362 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Steve Smith, who may have been premature in announcing his retirement after hauling in 13 catches for 186 yards - his second straight game of at least 150 yards. Justin Forsett and the ground game have been unable to get untracked while the defense has struggled since pass-rushing linebacker Terrell Suggs suffering a season-ending injury to his Achilles tendon in Week 1.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (2-1, 3-0 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Vick has been plagued by turnovers in the past few seasons, but he has the luxury of leaning on Bell and wideout Antonio Brown, who already has 29 receptions and is second in the league with 436 receiving yards. Bell, who rushed for 62 yards and a TD and caught seven passes for 70 yards in last week's 12-6 victory over St. Louis, was held in check in both regular-season matchups against the Ravens a year ago, managing only 79 yards rushing. The 35-year-old Vick, who was 5-of-6 for 38 yards in relief of Roethlisberger, had eight TD passes versus five interceptions in the last two seasons but fumbled nine times, losing four.
TRENDS:
* Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss.
* Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Over is 4-1-1 in the Ravens last six games versus the AFC North.
* Over is 11-4-2 in the last 17 meetings in Pittsburgh.
COVERS CONSENSUS: The public is fading the Roethlisberger-less Steelers with 60.31 percent of wagers backing the Ravens.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, 44)
The Pittsburgh Steelers will be facing a desperate team that happens to be their most bitter rival, and they'll have to do so without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger when they host the winless Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night in an AFC North matchup. Roethlisberger suffered a sprained medial collateral ligament in his left knee on Sunday and is expected to be sidelined a minimum of four weeks.
Roethlisberger's absence will put the onus on Michael Vick, who was signed late in training camp after struggling in a backup role with the New York Jets last season. "It’s definitely going to change a lot of things because the offense is really run through (Roethlisberger)," said Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell, who returned to the lineup last week after serving a two-game suspension to open the season. The Ravens have concerns of their own, becoming the last team in NFL history to open a season 0-3 and putting Thursday's matchup in the must-win category. "We're going to find a way out," Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said. "We will come out of this the other way."
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFLN.
LINE HISTORY: The Roethlisberger-less Steelers opened as 2-point home dogs and have moved to +2.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has been bet down to 44.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (+1.5) - Steelers (+2) + home field (-3) = Steelers -2.5
INJURY REPORT:
Ravens - CB T. Walker (probable Thursday, thigh), DL C. Canty (questionable Thursday, calf), WR B. Perriman (out Thursday, knee), T E. Monroe (out Thursday, concussion), TE C. Gillmore (out Thursday, calf).
Steelers - LB J. Harrison (probable Thursday, thumb), CB C. Allen (questionable Thursday, head), LB R. Shazier (questionable Thursday, shoulder), DT D. McCuller (questionable Thursday, knee), TE M. Spaeth (doubtful Thursday, hand) QB B. Roethlisberger (out Thursday, knee).
WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy at gametime with a very slight 13 percent chance of rain in Pittsburgh. There will be a strong 10 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southern endzone.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The 0-3 Ravens find themselves in ‘must win territory’ when they invade Pittsburgh to meet the Steelers Thursday night. Oddly, with a break or two, Baltimore could be 3-0 as all three of their losses have been by six or fewer points. Pittsburgh remembers last year’s playoff loss to the Ravens but with Ben Roethlisberger’s knee injury they will forced to operate with Michael Vick behind center. Can't envision the Ravens 0-4, not with Vick 2-9 SU/ATS as a dog in his NFL career in games when his team is off a SUATS win."
ABOUT THE RAVENS (0-3, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Baltimore has lost its three games by a combined 16 points, including a 28-24 setback to division rival Cincinnati in which it blew a pair of leads in the final seven minutes. Joe Flacco threw for 362 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Steve Smith, who may have been premature in announcing his retirement after hauling in 13 catches for 186 yards - his second straight game of at least 150 yards. Justin Forsett and the ground game have been unable to get untracked while the defense has struggled since pass-rushing linebacker Terrell Suggs suffering a season-ending injury to his Achilles tendon in Week 1.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (2-1, 3-0 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Vick has been plagued by turnovers in the past few seasons, but he has the luxury of leaning on Bell and wideout Antonio Brown, who already has 29 receptions and is second in the league with 436 receiving yards. Bell, who rushed for 62 yards and a TD and caught seven passes for 70 yards in last week's 12-6 victory over St. Louis, was held in check in both regular-season matchups against the Ravens a year ago, managing only 79 yards rushing. The 35-year-old Vick, who was 5-of-6 for 38 yards in relief of Roethlisberger, had eight TD passes versus five interceptions in the last two seasons but fumbled nine times, losing four.
TRENDS:
* Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss.
* Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Over is 4-1-1 in the Ravens last six games versus the AFC North.
* Over is 11-4-2 in the last 17 meetings in Pittsburgh.
COVERS CONSENSUS: The public is fading the Roethlisberger-less Steelers with 60.31 percent of wagers backing the Ravens.
| [h=1]NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h] | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (ET) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Thursday, October 1, 2015 | |||||||
| 8:25pm odds | (101) Baltimore Ravens (102) Pittsburgh Steelers | 13964 9717 |
| 3661 3331 |
| O4839 U6709 |
|
THURSDAY POWER FOOTBALL WEEK 4 / NFL STAR PLAYS (8-2) 80% / NFL RECORD (27-15) 64%
I'm a big Pittsburgh fans so no play for me on the side tonight!!!! Feel that this one hits around 50 to 56 points tonight!!!!
Pittsburgh Over 44
XS
I'm a big Pittsburgh fans so no play for me on the side tonight!!!! Feel that this one hits around 50 to 56 points tonight!!!!
Pittsburgh Over 44
XS
Thank you sir...... good luck tonight my friend!!!
Sorry I didn't post sooner Thursdays are very busy for me and thought I posted already..... old age I guess lol..... good luck tonight my friend!!!
Should be a nice winner to start off week 4 my friend, good luck tonight!!!
Slow start to the game now it's time to turn it on!!! Good luck tonight my friend!!!
NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4 by covers
Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears (+3, 45)
Raiders’ TE troubles vs. Bears’ TE Martellus Bennett
It’s no secret that Oakland has been punished by opposing tight ends this season. The Silver and Black have been left black and blue by these burly pass catchers, allowing an NFL-worst 305 yards and five touchdowns on 21 catches to rival TEs through the first three games of the year. Last week, Oakland was stung by Cleveland tight end Gary Barnidge – hardly an elite TE – for 105 yards and a score on six catches.
Chicago limps into this home stand off a shutout loss to the Seahawks in Seattle last weekend. Their tight end, Martellus Bennett, had a quiet game in Week 3, with just 15 yards on four catches. However, Bennett – who stands 6-foot-6 and is cut from the similar basketball cloth as Jimmy Graham – leads Chicago in receiving with 118 yards on 13 catches, for more than nine yards per reception. Regardless of who starts under center for the Bears, Jay Cutler or Jimmy Clausen, expect the majority of throws to come Bennett’s way.
Daily fantasy watch: TE Martellus Bennett
Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers (-7.5, 44.5)
Browns’ punter Andy Lee vs. Chargers’ poor punt returns
The Browns don’t usually get to be No. 1 in something, at least not a positive category. But, entering Week 4, Cleveland can hang its hat on punter Andy Lee, who tops the AFC in average punt yardage. Lee, who was acquired in a deal with San Francisco this summer, is kicking the snot out of the ball for an average of 54.3 yards per punt (second in the NFL behind Falcons P Matt Bosher with 54.5 ypp). Cleveland’s punt coverage has given up an average of 6.7 yards per return – 11th lowest – which is handing opponents an average starting field position just beyond their own 29-yard line.
The Chargers, in a startling stat, have zero punt return yards through three games. San Diego has returned only two punts on the year but hasn’t been able to generate any gains, calling for a fair catch four times and fumbling one attempt. Returner Jacoby Jones has been out with an ankle injury and didn’t participate in practice this week, leaving the Bolts without a real home-run threat on special teams. The Chargers have an average starting field position of the 23.31-yard line, fourth lowest in the league, and face a lofty spread with that half-point hook on the touchdown.
Daily fantasy watch: Cleveland D/ST
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 42)
Rams’ third-down defense vs. Cardinals’ third-down offense
The Rams have leaned heavily on their defense that past three seasons, but the stop unit just hasn’t been holding that weight in 2015. St. Louis has been bullied on the ground, allowing 122.7 yards rushing per game, and hasn’t been able to get opposing offenses off the field. Heading into Week 4, the Rams defense has turned away foes just 53.19 percent of the time on third downs – fourth worst in the NFL. St. Louis watched the Steelers go 6 for 12 on third downs last Sunday. This is a far cry from the Rams’ stingy defense of 2014, which allowed opponents to convert on only 38.68 percent of their third down tries.
The Cardinals offense is blowing away the opposition, totaling 126 points through three games thanks in large part to its ability to move the chains and stay on the field. Arizona has converted on half of its third down opportunities, going 16 for 32 in those situations, and honestly hasn’t put itself in too many of those sticky situations. The Cardinals have only faced two third downs of nine or more yards. But when the sticks show that ominous No. 3, Arizona has it’s go to guy in WR Larry Fitzgerald, who has reeled in seven catches for 138 yards and two touchdowns on third down in three games, accounting for 41 percent of his total gains this season.
Daily fantasy watch: WR Larry Fitzgerald
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-4.5, 46.5)
Cowboys’ drained defense vs. Saints’ clock-eating offense
Dallas’ defense got the benefit of a run-heavy playbook that dominated time of possession last season, keeping a shoddy stop unit from being exposed. Now that QB Tony Romo is sidelined and backup QB Brandon Weeden can’t seem to throw the ball more than five yards, the Cowboys offense is quickly handing the ball back to opponents. Dallas touched the ball for only 25:47 in the loss to the Falcons last Sunday, leaving a short-handed defense on the field for extended periods. Atlanta chipped away at the Cowboys’ D with RB Devonta Freeman and then when they were gassed, hit WR Julio Jones for big gains.
The Saints have flipped the script in the Big Easy, even with or without QB Drew Brees under center. New Orleans is being much more methodical with the football, and comes into Week 4 with an average TOP of 32:32 – sixth most in the NFL, just behind Atlanta – which is a major bump from 2014, when the Saints controlled the clock for only 29:48 per game. New Orleans defense has been burned most by big plays over top this season, allowing seven passing plays of 25 or more yards. But, with Weeden making the throws, the Saints can worry less about the deep threat and stack the box against his dumbed-down, dink-and-dunk playbook.
Daily fantasy watch: RB Mark Ingram, New Orleans D/ST
Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears (+3, 45)
Raiders’ TE troubles vs. Bears’ TE Martellus Bennett
It’s no secret that Oakland has been punished by opposing tight ends this season. The Silver and Black have been left black and blue by these burly pass catchers, allowing an NFL-worst 305 yards and five touchdowns on 21 catches to rival TEs through the first three games of the year. Last week, Oakland was stung by Cleveland tight end Gary Barnidge – hardly an elite TE – for 105 yards and a score on six catches.
Chicago limps into this home stand off a shutout loss to the Seahawks in Seattle last weekend. Their tight end, Martellus Bennett, had a quiet game in Week 3, with just 15 yards on four catches. However, Bennett – who stands 6-foot-6 and is cut from the similar basketball cloth as Jimmy Graham – leads Chicago in receiving with 118 yards on 13 catches, for more than nine yards per reception. Regardless of who starts under center for the Bears, Jay Cutler or Jimmy Clausen, expect the majority of throws to come Bennett’s way.
Daily fantasy watch: TE Martellus Bennett
Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers (-7.5, 44.5)
Browns’ punter Andy Lee vs. Chargers’ poor punt returns
The Browns don’t usually get to be No. 1 in something, at least not a positive category. But, entering Week 4, Cleveland can hang its hat on punter Andy Lee, who tops the AFC in average punt yardage. Lee, who was acquired in a deal with San Francisco this summer, is kicking the snot out of the ball for an average of 54.3 yards per punt (second in the NFL behind Falcons P Matt Bosher with 54.5 ypp). Cleveland’s punt coverage has given up an average of 6.7 yards per return – 11th lowest – which is handing opponents an average starting field position just beyond their own 29-yard line.
The Chargers, in a startling stat, have zero punt return yards through three games. San Diego has returned only two punts on the year but hasn’t been able to generate any gains, calling for a fair catch four times and fumbling one attempt. Returner Jacoby Jones has been out with an ankle injury and didn’t participate in practice this week, leaving the Bolts without a real home-run threat on special teams. The Chargers have an average starting field position of the 23.31-yard line, fourth lowest in the league, and face a lofty spread with that half-point hook on the touchdown.
Daily fantasy watch: Cleveland D/ST
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 42)
Rams’ third-down defense vs. Cardinals’ third-down offense
The Rams have leaned heavily on their defense that past three seasons, but the stop unit just hasn’t been holding that weight in 2015. St. Louis has been bullied on the ground, allowing 122.7 yards rushing per game, and hasn’t been able to get opposing offenses off the field. Heading into Week 4, the Rams defense has turned away foes just 53.19 percent of the time on third downs – fourth worst in the NFL. St. Louis watched the Steelers go 6 for 12 on third downs last Sunday. This is a far cry from the Rams’ stingy defense of 2014, which allowed opponents to convert on only 38.68 percent of their third down tries.
The Cardinals offense is blowing away the opposition, totaling 126 points through three games thanks in large part to its ability to move the chains and stay on the field. Arizona has converted on half of its third down opportunities, going 16 for 32 in those situations, and honestly hasn’t put itself in too many of those sticky situations. The Cardinals have only faced two third downs of nine or more yards. But when the sticks show that ominous No. 3, Arizona has it’s go to guy in WR Larry Fitzgerald, who has reeled in seven catches for 138 yards and two touchdowns on third down in three games, accounting for 41 percent of his total gains this season.
Daily fantasy watch: WR Larry Fitzgerald
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-4.5, 46.5)
Cowboys’ drained defense vs. Saints’ clock-eating offense
Dallas’ defense got the benefit of a run-heavy playbook that dominated time of possession last season, keeping a shoddy stop unit from being exposed. Now that QB Tony Romo is sidelined and backup QB Brandon Weeden can’t seem to throw the ball more than five yards, the Cowboys offense is quickly handing the ball back to opponents. Dallas touched the ball for only 25:47 in the loss to the Falcons last Sunday, leaving a short-handed defense on the field for extended periods. Atlanta chipped away at the Cowboys’ D with RB Devonta Freeman and then when they were gassed, hit WR Julio Jones for big gains.
The Saints have flipped the script in the Big Easy, even with or without QB Drew Brees under center. New Orleans is being much more methodical with the football, and comes into Week 4 with an average TOP of 32:32 – sixth most in the NFL, just behind Atlanta – which is a major bump from 2014, when the Saints controlled the clock for only 29:48 per game. New Orleans defense has been burned most by big plays over top this season, allowing seven passing plays of 25 or more yards. But, with Weeden making the throws, the Saints can worry less about the deep threat and stack the box against his dumbed-down, dink-and-dunk playbook.
Daily fantasy watch: RB Mark Ingram, New Orleans D/ST
| [h=1]NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h] | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (ET) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Sunday, October 4, 2015 | |||||||
| 9:30am odds | (251) New York Jets (252) Miami Dolphins | 5509 3144 |
| 929 1300 |
| O2484 U1962 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (253) Jacksonville Jaguars (254) Indianapolis Colts | 1946 3587 |
| 465 1002 |
| O1743 U1064 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (255) Houston Texans (256) Atlanta Falcons | 2443 7009 |
| 1177 1227 |
| O2867 U1470 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (257) Carolina Panthers (258) Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5654 1202 |
| 1313 399 |
| O2240 U1181 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (259) New York Giants (260) Buffalo Bills | 4786 4311 |
| 1608 811 |
| O2971 U1539 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (261) Oakland Raiders (262) Chicago Bears | 6574 2468 |
| 1116 1269 |
| O2423 U2175 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (263) Philadelphia Eagles (264) Washington Redskins | 6140 1755 |
| 1085 850 |
| O1818 U2220 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (265) Kansas City Chiefs (266) Cincinnati Bengals | 2804 3937 |
| 708 934 |
| O2388 U927 |
|
| 4:05pm odds | (267) Cleveland Browns (268) San Diego Chargers | 2192 3512 |
| 721 686 |
| O1546 U1364 |
|
| 4:25pm odds | (269) Green Bay Packers (270) San Francisco 49ers | 5951 1991 |
| 1897 394 |
| O2553 U1122 |
|
| 4:25pm odds | (271) Minnesota Vikings (272) Denver Broncos | 2737 4891 |
| 1081 1130 |
| O2503 U1337 |
|
| 4:25pm odds | (273) St. Louis Rams (274) Arizona Cardinals | 1953 10129 |
| 1097 2471 |
| O4177 U1703 |
|
| 8:30pm odds | (275) Dallas Cowboys (276) New Orleans Saints | 488 185 |
| 18 59 |
| O98 U62 |
|
Thanks and good luck to you as well my friend!!!
