Something to consider when betting baseball
Most people believe that they have to win more than 52.4% of their bets to make a profit. If you are betting point spreads and totals, that is correct. But if you are betting on +150 dogs you only need to win 40% to break even. And if you are betting -160 favorites you need to win 60% to break even.
So obviously, it is NOT necessary to win over 50% of your bets to be profitable in baseball.
The truth is, your winning percentage is directly tied to the lines you play. It has nothing to do with your handicapping skills, and a higher winning percentage actually makes you less likely to win money because it is a result of playing bad lines that place you under a HUGE disadvantage.
The higher the break even percentage of the lines you play, the less likely you are to make a profit. You probably consider yourself a handicapper, but you are not. The sports books themselves are the handicappers, and they are BY FAR the best in the business.
The spreads and lines the books put out are usually a pretty accurate assessment of the probabilities, but that is not what wins them the cash. They win because they are good at taking control of the monetary advantage and manipulating your fallacy based tendencies, not because they are good handicappers.
The books get you to VOLUNTARILY put yourself under a HUGE monetary disadvantage before the game even starts. As long as they can do that, they couldn't care less about your handicapping skills. And as long as you do that, improving your handicapping skills is pointless. They can get away with it because they have convinced you they are deserving of such a huge advantage at your expense for the privilege of taking your money. The books have already handicapped the game, so to win you need only concern yourself with finding the monetary advantage IN THE LINES on the bets you make.
