| [h=1]NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h] | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (EDT) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Sunday, October 23, 2016 | |||||||
| 9:30am odds | (451) New York Giants (452) Los Angeles Rams | 5837 4266 |
| 1374 1218 |
| O 3159 U 1786 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (453) Minnesota Vikings (454) Philadelphia Eagles | 10633 4851 |
| 2571 1920 |
| O 4693 U 2865 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (455) New Orleans Saints (456) Kansas City Chiefs | 4719 6466 |
| 1388 1384 |
| O 3171 U 2156 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (457) Washington Redskins (458) Detroit Lions | 3954 3555 |
| 1262 584 |
| O 2869 U 1092 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (459) Cleveland Browns (460) Cincinnati Bengals | 3177 5119 |
| 732 1643 |
| O 2464 U 1602 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (461) Buffalo Bills (462) Miami Dolphins | 6504 3684 |
| 1089 1540 |
| O 2756 U 2155 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (463) Oakland Raiders (464) Jacksonville Jaguars | 6399 2084 |
| 1598 485 |
| O 2936 U 1242 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (465) Indianapolis Colts (466) Tennessee Titans | 3355 3123 |
| 850 674 |
| O 2018 U 1329 |
|
| 1:00pm odds | (467) Baltimore Ravens (468) New York Jets | 4873 2454 |
| 1351 564 |
| O 1958 U 1797 |
|
| 4:05pm odds | (469) San Diego Chargers (470) Atlanta Falcons | 5542 7632 |
| 1994 1741 |
| O 5764 U 1251 |
|
| 4:05pm odds | (471) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (472) San Francisco 49ers | 3999 2920 |
| 970 714 |
| O 1722 U 1918 |
|
| 4:25pm odds | (473) New England Patriots (474) Pittsburgh Steelers | 16837 2854 |
| 4552 1372 |
| O 6057 U 3356 |
|
| 8:30pm odds | (475) Seattle Seahawks (476) Arizona Cardinals | 5744 3714 |
| 1716 839 |
| O 2532 U 2318 |
|
TODAY'S PLAYS SENT OUT, IF YOU WANT IN YOU KNOW HOW TO REACH ME!!!
NFL Week 7 So Far (3-1) 75% +$13,750
Vegas Source Plays (20-5) 80% +$81,710
NFL Football Record (71-56) 56% +$54,000
More net winners..... 4 big plays left on the board, are you going to be a winner today???
7k (Vegas Source) New York Giants -2.5 -110 (Easy Winner 17-10)
The Rams defense has been disappointing, and their pass defense has been nothing special, so I expect Manning and Beckham Jr. to have another big game. I also expect to see Rashad Jennings get more carries this week and have success as the Lions weak running game was able to have success against the Rams last week, so the Giants should as well. I am confident in the Giants defense, as their rush defense has been decent, allowing only 96 rushing yards per game, so I expect them to be able to contain Gurley who hasn’t been that effective this season. Also, I don’t expect Keenum to have the same success he did last week, as the Lions had a very thin secondary due to a few key injuries which made his job easier. The Rams are only averaging 18 points per game, and I am very comfortable taking the Giants to cover the small spread with their potent offense.
5k New York Giants Over 44.5 -105 (Lost 27 Points)
With the game being played in London, expect both teams to put on a show. I expect Odell Beckham and company to destroy the Rams defense, but Los Angeles RB Todd Gurley will have his first 100 yard rushing game. In the last five games played in London, four out of the five games hit the Over.
New York Giants: The Over is 10-4 in NYG last 14 games on field turf.
Los Angeles Rams: The Over is 11-5 in LA last 16 games in October
Jason
Vegas Source Plays (20-5) 80% +$81,710
NFL Football Record (71-56) 56% +$54,000
More net winners..... 4 big plays left on the board, are you going to be a winner today???
7k (Vegas Source) New York Giants -2.5 -110 (Easy Winner 17-10)
The Rams defense has been disappointing, and their pass defense has been nothing special, so I expect Manning and Beckham Jr. to have another big game. I also expect to see Rashad Jennings get more carries this week and have success as the Lions weak running game was able to have success against the Rams last week, so the Giants should as well. I am confident in the Giants defense, as their rush defense has been decent, allowing only 96 rushing yards per game, so I expect them to be able to contain Gurley who hasn’t been that effective this season. Also, I don’t expect Keenum to have the same success he did last week, as the Lions had a very thin secondary due to a few key injuries which made his job easier. The Rams are only averaging 18 points per game, and I am very comfortable taking the Giants to cover the small spread with their potent offense.
5k New York Giants Over 44.5 -105 (Lost 27 Points)
With the game being played in London, expect both teams to put on a show. I expect Odell Beckham and company to destroy the Rams defense, but Los Angeles RB Todd Gurley will have his first 100 yard rushing game. In the last five games played in London, four out of the five games hit the Over.
New York Giants: The Over is 10-4 in NYG last 14 games on field turf.
Los Angeles Rams: The Over is 11-5 in LA last 16 games in October
Jason
Saturday (7-6) +$10,050 . NCAA Power Football Week 8 Results (11-9) 55% +$16,400
Saturday High Roller Plays (4-1) 80% +$20,650
Here are the results of my college football results from week 8......
7k (High Roller) North Carolina -10.5 +100 (Easy Blowout Winner 35-14)
North Carolina’s defense has improved this season, except against the run. However, Virginia’s strength is throwing the football, not running it. This is a team that has overachieved to some extent, though Benkert has given them a lift. The Duke win was a good one but they couldn’t move the ball in the second half against Pittsburgh and expect North Carolina to follow a similar formula. Lay the points on the road.
7k (High Roller) Michigan -39.5 -106 (Lost 41-8)
This Michigan team is an absolute powerhouse, and they are levels ahead of their competition in Illinois. Michigan was able to beat Rutgers by a 78-0 score two weeks ago, while Illinois only beat them by a 24-7 score last week, which goes to show how much stronger Michigan is compared to Illinois. Illinois really has a hard time stopping the run, allowing an average of 185 rushing yards per game, and Michigan features a very dangerous rushing game that is averaging 255 yards per game, so I expect them to exploit Illinois on the ground much like they did two weeks ago against Rutgers. Also, the dominant Michigan defense should have no problem against Illinois who has not been productive in the air, and Michigan features the best pass defense in the Country right now. Michigan should take this one in a massive blowout.
7k (High Roller) Western Kentucky -13.5 -115 (Easy Blowout Winner 59-24)
The Monarchs have three straight victories but one has to think that the level of competition has something to do with that. Old Dominion has its work cut out for them going on the road to face a very good Western Kentucky team with an explosive offense. The Hilltoppers have one of the toughest receiver duos in the nation to contain. Old Dominion doesn’t have the weapons to keep up if this turns into a track meet. Western Kentucky finally stops the win one, lose one trend with a victory at home here.
7k (High Roller) Oklahoma State -23 -102 (Winner 44-20)
The Jayhawks can’t stop the pass and the Cowboys have a great wide receiving core and a top notch quarterback. I think this game gets ugly early, and unlike Baylor I don’t the Cowboys will step off the gas pedal in the second half. I expect a good old fashioned butt whooping on Saturday.
7k (High Roller) Colorado +1.5 +101 (Easy Su Winner 10-5)
This one opened up at -3.5 and quickly moved to -2. Thee is a reason for that. The Stanford offense is averaging over 200 yards less per game than the Colorado O. Not to mention the Buffaloes are 7-0 this season against the spread. Until they buck that trend it is hard to pick against them.
REGULAR PLAYS
5k TCU +5.5 -104 (Lost)
3k Texas A&M +18.5 -105 (Lost)
5k Houston Over 61.5 +100 (Lost)
5k Boston College -4.5 -105 (Lost)
5k Texas A&M Over 60 +103 (Lost)
5k Auburn -10.5 -106 (Super Blowout Winner 56-3)
5k East Carolina Under 64 -114 (Blowout Winner 50 Points)
3k Central Florida Under 46.5 -105 (Easy Winner 40 Points)
Jason
xspower1@hotmil.com
Saturday High Roller Plays (4-1) 80% +$20,650
Here are the results of my college football results from week 8......
7k (High Roller) North Carolina -10.5 +100 (Easy Blowout Winner 35-14)
North Carolina’s defense has improved this season, except against the run. However, Virginia’s strength is throwing the football, not running it. This is a team that has overachieved to some extent, though Benkert has given them a lift. The Duke win was a good one but they couldn’t move the ball in the second half against Pittsburgh and expect North Carolina to follow a similar formula. Lay the points on the road.
7k (High Roller) Michigan -39.5 -106 (Lost 41-8)
This Michigan team is an absolute powerhouse, and they are levels ahead of their competition in Illinois. Michigan was able to beat Rutgers by a 78-0 score two weeks ago, while Illinois only beat them by a 24-7 score last week, which goes to show how much stronger Michigan is compared to Illinois. Illinois really has a hard time stopping the run, allowing an average of 185 rushing yards per game, and Michigan features a very dangerous rushing game that is averaging 255 yards per game, so I expect them to exploit Illinois on the ground much like they did two weeks ago against Rutgers. Also, the dominant Michigan defense should have no problem against Illinois who has not been productive in the air, and Michigan features the best pass defense in the Country right now. Michigan should take this one in a massive blowout.
7k (High Roller) Western Kentucky -13.5 -115 (Easy Blowout Winner 59-24)
The Monarchs have three straight victories but one has to think that the level of competition has something to do with that. Old Dominion has its work cut out for them going on the road to face a very good Western Kentucky team with an explosive offense. The Hilltoppers have one of the toughest receiver duos in the nation to contain. Old Dominion doesn’t have the weapons to keep up if this turns into a track meet. Western Kentucky finally stops the win one, lose one trend with a victory at home here.
7k (High Roller) Oklahoma State -23 -102 (Winner 44-20)
The Jayhawks can’t stop the pass and the Cowboys have a great wide receiving core and a top notch quarterback. I think this game gets ugly early, and unlike Baylor I don’t the Cowboys will step off the gas pedal in the second half. I expect a good old fashioned butt whooping on Saturday.
7k (High Roller) Colorado +1.5 +101 (Easy Su Winner 10-5)
This one opened up at -3.5 and quickly moved to -2. Thee is a reason for that. The Stanford offense is averaging over 200 yards less per game than the Colorado O. Not to mention the Buffaloes are 7-0 this season against the spread. Until they buck that trend it is hard to pick against them.
REGULAR PLAYS
5k TCU +5.5 -104 (Lost)
3k Texas A&M +18.5 -105 (Lost)
5k Houston Over 61.5 +100 (Lost)
5k Boston College -4.5 -105 (Lost)
5k Texas A&M Over 60 +103 (Lost)
5k Auburn -10.5 -106 (Super Blowout Winner 56-3)
5k East Carolina Under 64 -114 (Blowout Winner 50 Points)
3k Central Florida Under 46.5 -105 (Easy Winner 40 Points)
Jason
xspower1@hotmil.com
NFL Week 7 So Far (7-4) 64% +$18,100
Vegas Source Plays (22-7) 76% +$81,360
NFL Football Record (75-59) 56% +$58,350
Hit my members first NFL 6 team 6 point members teaser..... most the time when I lose it not by much..... normally less then 6 points!!! Many ways to win and that's my members love the NFL plays!!! Plays sent out early (9am est) that's the way it's going to be!!!
It's not to late to sign up for my NBA season pass and you would be a fool to follow anyone else but me in the NBA!!!
7k (Vegas Source) San Diego +5 -105 (Su Winner 33-30)
Call me stupid, actually don’t because my NFL picks have been on fire lately. The San Diego Chargers are actually one of the top teams in the NFL, until the 4th Quarter hits. They played the 4th quarter when they faced the Broncos and won with ease, I’m not saying they will win in Atlanta but it’s going to be close.
7k (Vegas Source) Cincinnati -10.5 -107 (Easy Winner 31-17)
The Bengals have their issues, but they are better than a two-win team. All four of their games on the season have come against teams that currently have a winning record and their last two games have come facing the Cowboys and Patriots with both on the road. Dalton will have a big game in this AFC North match up and the Bengals will easily win and cover the 9.5-point spread. With Cleveland as their opponent I would have taken Cincy even giving 19.5 points.
7k (Vegas Source) Jacksonville Under 47 -105 (Lost 48 Points)
Jacksonville has only topped 23 points once this season and their defense seems to be gelling. The Raiders have to make a cross-country trip and have scored just 45 points in their two road games so far this year. I like Jacksonville and the under in an ugly game that's less offensive than expected.
7k (Vegas Source) Washington ML +108 (Lost)
Even though these two teams are cooking on the offensive side of the ball, they both will have a strong game plan to stop each other. I’ve picked Washington for the last four games and they have yet to disappoint me. The Skins offensive attack is stronger than the Lions.
OTHER PLAYS:
5k Buffalo -2.5 -106 (Lost)
5k Indianapolis +3.5 -109 (SU Blowout Winner 34-26)
5k Indianapolis Over 47.5 -106 (Easy Blowout Winner 60 Points)
Jason,
xspower1@hotmail.com
Vegas Source Plays (22-7) 76% +$81,360
NFL Football Record (75-59) 56% +$58,350
Hit my members first NFL 6 team 6 point members teaser..... most the time when I lose it not by much..... normally less then 6 points!!! Many ways to win and that's my members love the NFL plays!!! Plays sent out early (9am est) that's the way it's going to be!!!
It's not to late to sign up for my NBA season pass and you would be a fool to follow anyone else but me in the NBA!!!
7k (Vegas Source) San Diego +5 -105 (Su Winner 33-30)
Call me stupid, actually don’t because my NFL picks have been on fire lately. The San Diego Chargers are actually one of the top teams in the NFL, until the 4th Quarter hits. They played the 4th quarter when they faced the Broncos and won with ease, I’m not saying they will win in Atlanta but it’s going to be close.
7k (Vegas Source) Cincinnati -10.5 -107 (Easy Winner 31-17)
The Bengals have their issues, but they are better than a two-win team. All four of their games on the season have come against teams that currently have a winning record and their last two games have come facing the Cowboys and Patriots with both on the road. Dalton will have a big game in this AFC North match up and the Bengals will easily win and cover the 9.5-point spread. With Cleveland as their opponent I would have taken Cincy even giving 19.5 points.
7k (Vegas Source) Jacksonville Under 47 -105 (Lost 48 Points)
Jacksonville has only topped 23 points once this season and their defense seems to be gelling. The Raiders have to make a cross-country trip and have scored just 45 points in their two road games so far this year. I like Jacksonville and the under in an ugly game that's less offensive than expected.
7k (Vegas Source) Washington ML +108 (Lost)
Even though these two teams are cooking on the offensive side of the ball, they both will have a strong game plan to stop each other. I’ve picked Washington for the last four games and they have yet to disappoint me. The Skins offensive attack is stronger than the Lions.
OTHER PLAYS:
5k Buffalo -2.5 -106 (Lost)
5k Indianapolis +3.5 -109 (SU Blowout Winner 34-26)
5k Indianapolis Over 47.5 -106 (Easy Blowout Winner 60 Points)
Jason,
xspower1@hotmail.com
NFL Week 7 So Far (8-4) 64% +$25,380
Vegas Source Plays (23-7) 77% +$88,640
NFL Football Record (76-59) 56% +$65,630
This had to be one of the worst games to season to watch, glad we were on the underdog from an exciting winner. NFL really going great and the season has a long way to go before the break. Hey, if your not winning, there's nothing to be embarrassed about, sign up with my team of experts and you can be a winner as well!!! Documented records are 100% proven, what do you have to lose???
7k (Vegas Source) Seattle +1 +104 (Nice Winner)
The road team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams while the Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in the last seven match ups. The last time they played in Glendale they walked away with a 30-point victory. While we should not expect a repeat performance to that degree, you can still expect a Seattle win on Sunday night.
Seattle is:
6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 7
19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Arizona is:
1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 7
2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points
1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
Jason,
xspower1@hotmail.com
Vegas Source Plays (23-7) 77% +$88,640
NFL Football Record (76-59) 56% +$65,630
This had to be one of the worst games to season to watch, glad we were on the underdog from an exciting winner. NFL really going great and the season has a long way to go before the break. Hey, if your not winning, there's nothing to be embarrassed about, sign up with my team of experts and you can be a winner as well!!! Documented records are 100% proven, what do you have to lose???
7k (Vegas Source) Seattle +1 +104 (Nice Winner)
The road team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams while the Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in the last seven match ups. The last time they played in Glendale they walked away with a 30-point victory. While we should not expect a repeat performance to that degree, you can still expect a Seattle win on Sunday night.
Seattle is:
6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 7
19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Arizona is:
1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 7
2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points
1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
Jason,
xspower1@hotmail.com
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| [h=1]NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h] | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (EDT) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Monday, October 24, 2016 | |||||||
| 8:30pm odds | (477) Houston Texans (478) Denver Broncos | 7638 14052 |
| 2644 4293 |
| O 5867 U 5681 |
|
Monday October 24th NFL Power Football . NFL Week 7 Power Football (9-5) 64% +$23,380
Monday Night Football Season Results (11-5) 69% +$46,560
Vegas Source Plays (23-8) 74% +$81,640
NFL Football Record (77-60) 56% +$63,630
A win, a push and a loss.... another winning week in the NFL and 9 more to go!!!
7k (Vegas Source) Houston 7.5 +100 (Lost)
The Texans are coming into this one with a ton of confidence after their incredible comeback win over the Colts, while the Broncos are coming off two straight losses. The Broncos have not been good at stopping the run, conceding 112 rushing yards per game, and Lamar Miller is coming off his best performance of the season, and I expect him to do damage in this one. Also, I am very confident this Texans defense can shut down Siemian who has not been very good, plus the Texans have the second ranked pass defense in the NFL, so Denver will face a tough task scoring points.
5K Houston Under 40 -105 (Winner 36 Points)
5k Houston FH Under 20 -115 (Push)
Von Miller is the best defensive player in the league right now. He leads the NFL with 7.5 sacks and Osweiler is a 6-8 quarterback with very little mobility. Houston’s defense ranks second in the NFL against the pass (189.3ypg) and while they’ve struggled against the run, they are facing a line that has been unable to open up many holes in the ground game. This is going to be an ugly game between two average quarterbacks against some very good defenses.
Jason,
xspower1@hotmail.com
Monday Night Football Season Results (11-5) 69% +$46,560
Vegas Source Plays (23-8) 74% +$81,640
NFL Football Record (77-60) 56% +$63,630
A win, a push and a loss.... another winning week in the NFL and 9 more to go!!!
7k (Vegas Source) Houston 7.5 +100 (Lost)
The Texans are coming into this one with a ton of confidence after their incredible comeback win over the Colts, while the Broncos are coming off two straight losses. The Broncos have not been good at stopping the run, conceding 112 rushing yards per game, and Lamar Miller is coming off his best performance of the season, and I expect him to do damage in this one. Also, I am very confident this Texans defense can shut down Siemian who has not been very good, plus the Texans have the second ranked pass defense in the NFL, so Denver will face a tough task scoring points.
5K Houston Under 40 -105 (Winner 36 Points)
5k Houston FH Under 20 -115 (Push)
Von Miller is the best defensive player in the league right now. He leads the NFL with 7.5 sacks and Osweiler is a 6-8 quarterback with very little mobility. Houston’s defense ranks second in the NFL against the pass (189.3ypg) and while they’ve struggled against the run, they are facing a line that has been unable to open up many holes in the ground game. This is going to be an ugly game between two average quarterbacks against some very good defenses.
Jason,
xspower1@hotmail.com
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EARLY LOOK @ THURSDAY ACTION:
| NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (EDT) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Thursday, October 27, 2016 | |||||||
| 8:25pm odds | (101) Jacksonville Jaguars (102) Tennessee Titans | 1514 2358 |
| 555 476 |
| O 1383 U 850 |
|
| College Football Consensus: Public Picks | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (EDT) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Thursday, October 27, 2016 | |||||||
| 7:00pm odds | (107) Virginia Tech Hokies (108) Pittsburgh Panthers | 1322 1251 |
| 248 501 |
| O 685 U 474 |
|
| 7:30pm odds | (103) Ohio Bobcats (104) Toledo Rockets | 675 628 |
| 72 251 |
| O 300 U 173 |
|
| 7:30pm odds | (105) Akron Zips (106) Buffalo Bulls | 775 415 |
| 184 110 |
| O 141 U 306 |
|
| 7:30pm odds | (109) App State Mountaineers (110) Georgia Southern Eagles | 1246 412 |
| 130 191 |
| O 589 U 221 |
|
| 10:30pm odds | (111) California Golden Bears (112) USC Trojans | 2091 845 |
| 549 183 |
| O 921 U 498 |
|
Betting the NFL Coast-to-Coast method is a myth, depending on the day by harvard sports
One commonly held belief among NFL bettors is that there’s an edge betting against teams that are currently playing well out of their time zones, whether it be one of the five teams on the West Coast traveling out to the East Coast or vice versa.
But is there actually any truth to this theory? We've already seen the Oakland Raiders go West to East twice this season, and not only cover but win outright as road underdogs. The Raiders are once again on the East Coast to play Tampa Bay in Week 8, but stayed in Florida - rather than travel back to Oakland - following their win at Jacksonville last Sunday.
Using data back to 1995 (the point at which the Los Angeles Rams moved to St. Louis) we can investigate whether there's proof behind the coast-to-coast method or if it's just a myth.
Between this year and 1995 there were only four teams that played their home games on the West Coast: the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers. So we can look at how these four teams did playing against the teams that played on the East Coast (and were on Eastern Time), of which there are 19 in total.
We can look at both how the West Coast teams did when they were away (having to travel to the East Coast) and when they were home (with East Coast teams having to travel to them). Below is a simple breakdown of those games.
Three things jump out at me from this table.
1. Teams that have to travel to vastly different time zones, no matter which direction, are less than 50 percent ATS.
2. Games that involve two teams from vastly different time zones tend to go Over more than 50 percent of the time
3. Neither of these results are statistically significant at all. The closest one to statistical significance is that games involving East Coast teams playing on the West Coast go Over the total, and that only has a p-value of 0.375 - nowhere close to the 0.05 level desired for statistical significance. Although the direction of the effect is perhaps what we would think, the magnitude of the effect is not significant at all.
Another potential angle that we thought would be interesting was to look the win percentage over time, as long distance travel has become more and more comfortable over the years and perhaps that has affected the ATS performance of teams traveling to opposite coasts. Below is a graph of the ATS record of West Coast teams playing on the East Coast:
No real trend there. There are a few years that are somewhat outliers, but there doesn’t appear to be any real pattern. Maybe a slightly upward trend if you look only at the past 10 or so years, but that seems like cherry picking a little.
Along the same line though, we can look at how East Coast Teams have performed on the West Coast over time.
Again, not a trend to really be found. Less variability, for what it’s worth, as most years it is pretty close to 50% ATS.
However, not all games are created equal. Games are played at different times, for example. Unfortunately, I do not have the data for what time kickoff was for these games, so we can’t look at games where a West Coast team is playing a 1 p.m. ET kickoff, where we might expect the effect to be the largest.
However, another aspect of games besides start time that we may want to look at is what day the game is played on. It is reasonable to conclude going into this that for West Coast teams going to the East Coast, playing on Sunday or even Monday may be especially preferable to playing on Thursday, as you have more time to adapt to the time zone difference, or at least you don’t have to play a game on short rest and in a different time zone. So let us break down games by what day they occur on.
There definitely seems to be a trend, but take it with a grain of salt as it is an extremely small sample. Still, West Coast teams playing on Thursday at an East Coast opponent are 0-4 ATS (0%, 0.13 p-value), while those playing on Mondays are 11-1 ATS (91.7%, 0.01 p-value). What might explain this? Logic would suggest that bettors (and therefor the lines) are not realizing how harmful playing early is when you only have a few days to prepare, but at the same time overvalue its effect when you have a lot of time to prepare. Or this is just random noise, which is always a possibility with such small samples.
Does the same effect seem to exist for East Coast teams traveling to West Coast teams? Short answer: no.
There is basically no evidence to suggest that the results of East Coast teams playing at West Coast teams depends on the day. Still, this is not surprising – playing later isn’t thought of as being a big of a deal as playing earlier.
Although there doesn’t appear to be a general effect for when West Coast teams play on the East Coast (or, if there is, lines evaluate it properly), the day you are playing on does seem to affect it.
This season, we’ve seen the New York Jets cross the country for a Monday night game with the Arizona Cardinals, only to loss 28-3 as 7.5-point underdogs in Week 6. And, looking at the upcoming schedule, football bettors may want to mark this East-to-West standalone game on their calendar: Monday, November 7: Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks
One commonly held belief among NFL bettors is that there’s an edge betting against teams that are currently playing well out of their time zones, whether it be one of the five teams on the West Coast traveling out to the East Coast or vice versa.
But is there actually any truth to this theory? We've already seen the Oakland Raiders go West to East twice this season, and not only cover but win outright as road underdogs. The Raiders are once again on the East Coast to play Tampa Bay in Week 8, but stayed in Florida - rather than travel back to Oakland - following their win at Jacksonville last Sunday.
Using data back to 1995 (the point at which the Los Angeles Rams moved to St. Louis) we can investigate whether there's proof behind the coast-to-coast method or if it's just a myth.
Between this year and 1995 there were only four teams that played their home games on the West Coast: the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers. So we can look at how these four teams did playing against the teams that played on the East Coast (and were on Eastern Time), of which there are 19 in total.
We can look at both how the West Coast teams did when they were away (having to travel to the East Coast) and when they were home (with East Coast teams having to travel to them). Below is a simple breakdown of those games.
| Record ATS | Record vs Total (% Over) | |
| West @ East | 133-140 (48.7%) | 143-131 (52.2%) |
| East @ West | 138-142 (49.3%) | 151-135 (52.8%) |
Three things jump out at me from this table.
1. Teams that have to travel to vastly different time zones, no matter which direction, are less than 50 percent ATS.
2. Games that involve two teams from vastly different time zones tend to go Over more than 50 percent of the time
3. Neither of these results are statistically significant at all. The closest one to statistical significance is that games involving East Coast teams playing on the West Coast go Over the total, and that only has a p-value of 0.375 - nowhere close to the 0.05 level desired for statistical significance. Although the direction of the effect is perhaps what we would think, the magnitude of the effect is not significant at all.
Another potential angle that we thought would be interesting was to look the win percentage over time, as long distance travel has become more and more comfortable over the years and perhaps that has affected the ATS performance of teams traveling to opposite coasts. Below is a graph of the ATS record of West Coast teams playing on the East Coast:
Along the same line though, we can look at how East Coast Teams have performed on the West Coast over time.
However, not all games are created equal. Games are played at different times, for example. Unfortunately, I do not have the data for what time kickoff was for these games, so we can’t look at games where a West Coast team is playing a 1 p.m. ET kickoff, where we might expect the effect to be the largest.
However, another aspect of games besides start time that we may want to look at is what day the game is played on. It is reasonable to conclude going into this that for West Coast teams going to the East Coast, playing on Sunday or even Monday may be especially preferable to playing on Thursday, as you have more time to adapt to the time zone difference, or at least you don’t have to play a game on short rest and in a different time zone. So let us break down games by what day they occur on.
West Coast @ East Coast ATS, by Day | ||
| Thursday | Sunday | Monday |
| 0-4 | 120-133 | 11-1 |
There definitely seems to be a trend, but take it with a grain of salt as it is an extremely small sample. Still, West Coast teams playing on Thursday at an East Coast opponent are 0-4 ATS (0%, 0.13 p-value), while those playing on Mondays are 11-1 ATS (91.7%, 0.01 p-value). What might explain this? Logic would suggest that bettors (and therefor the lines) are not realizing how harmful playing early is when you only have a few days to prepare, but at the same time overvalue its effect when you have a lot of time to prepare. Or this is just random noise, which is always a possibility with such small samples.
Does the same effect seem to exist for East Coast teams traveling to West Coast teams? Short answer: no.
East Coast @ West Coast ATS, by Day | ||
| Thursday | Sunday | Monday |
| 0-1 | 129-127 | 7-9 |
There is basically no evidence to suggest that the results of East Coast teams playing at West Coast teams depends on the day. Still, this is not surprising – playing later isn’t thought of as being a big of a deal as playing earlier.
Although there doesn’t appear to be a general effect for when West Coast teams play on the East Coast (or, if there is, lines evaluate it properly), the day you are playing on does seem to affect it.
This season, we’ve seen the New York Jets cross the country for a Monday night game with the Arizona Cardinals, only to loss 28-3 as 7.5-point underdogs in Week 6. And, looking at the upcoming schedule, football bettors may want to mark this East-to-West standalone game on their calendar: Monday, November 7: Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks
| [h=1]NFL Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h] | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (EDT) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Thursday, October 27, 2016 | |||||||
| 8:25pm odds | (101) Jacksonville Jaguars (102) Tennessee Titans | 4701 8592 |
| 1866 2378 |
| O 4858 U 2564 |
|
| College Football Consensus: Public Picks | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (EDT) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Thursday, October 27, 2016 | |||||||
| 7:00pm odds | (107) Virginia Tech Hokies (108) Pittsburgh Panthers | 4951 4570 |
| 1358 1942 |
| O 3143 U 1571 |
|
| 7:30pm odds | (103) Ohio Bobcats (104) Toledo Rockets | 2049 2093 |
| 408 1089 |
| O 988 U 885 |
|
| 7:30pm odds | (105) Akron Zips (106) Buffalo Bulls | 2123 1492 |
| 871 406 |
| O 457 U 1182 |
|
| 7:30pm odds | (109) App State Mountaineers (110) Georgia Southern Eagles | 3836 1713 |
| 674 841 |
| O 2106 U 738 |
|
| 10:30pm odds | (111) California Golden Bears (112) USC Trojans | 5460 2896 |
| 1409 1113 |
| O 2442 U 1869 |
|
NFL WEEK 8 SO FAR (1-2) -$5,700
Hope you had a great night.....
5k Tennessee FH Under 22 -115 (Lost)
5k Tennessee Under 43.5 -109 (Lost 58 Points)
5k Tennessee -3 +110 (Easy Blowout Winner 36-22)
The Jaguars were atrocious last week against the Raiders, scoring just 16 points against of the NFL’s worst defensive teams and Tennessee has a much better defense than the Raiders, so I am not worried about the Jacksonville offense. Also, Tennessee features an outstanding running game with DeMarco Murray, and they are averaging 143 rushing yards per game good for third in the NFL, and the Jaguars have not been effective at stopping the run so I expect Murray and the Titans to have a lot of success on the ground which one will be the deciding factor in this game.
Jason,
xspower1@hotmail.com
Hope you had a great night.....
5k Tennessee FH Under 22 -115 (Lost)
5k Tennessee Under 43.5 -109 (Lost 58 Points)
5k Tennessee -3 +110 (Easy Blowout Winner 36-22)
The Jaguars were atrocious last week against the Raiders, scoring just 16 points against of the NFL’s worst defensive teams and Tennessee has a much better defense than the Raiders, so I am not worried about the Jacksonville offense. Also, Tennessee features an outstanding running game with DeMarco Murray, and they are averaging 143 rushing yards per game good for third in the NFL, and the Jaguars have not been effective at stopping the run so I expect Murray and the Titans to have a lot of success on the ground which one will be the deciding factor in this game.
Jason,
xspower1@hotmail.com
NCAA FOOTBALL WEEK 9 SO FAR (1-4) -$11,000
Not a great night..... I should know better then to plays games like Akron & Georgia Southern...... V Tech misses by a half point.... I'm not going down like that!!!
5k USC -19.5 (Winner 45-24)
USC has covered the spread in two of their last three games and all three of their losses have come on the road. They are clicking with Darnald under center and their D has stepped up as of late. The Trojans will continue their dominance over Cal and they will also cover the big 18 point spread.
5k Georgia Southern +6 -115 (Lost)
The Mountaineers are rolling right now but they don’t put up much offensively. It’s tough to shut down a team like Georgia Southern with their tough run game. The Eagles gutted out a tough road win last week over a game New Mexico State team. Both teams are tough defensively so this could be a low scoring affair. That plays more into Georgia Southern’s ball control style as the Eagles get a home win to clutter up the top of the Sun Belt standings. Appalachian State has been winning, but they are going to need a little more then I think their offense is capable of against the Eagles. I look for Georgia Southern to cover the 5 points and improve their conference standing.
5k Virginia Tech -3.5 +103 (Lost 39-36)
Without a more balanced attack on offense, I don’t see Pitt doing enough with the ball to cover the points in this one. Virginia Tech is the better team on both sides of the ball and haven’t had an issue this season when it comes to stopping the run. I think the Hokies defense will force the Panthers out of their comfort zone which will lead to a couple of interceptions. Points off turnover should be enough for Virginia Tech to win by more than 3.5.
5k Akron -18 -105 (Lost)
This one is a match up of teams going in opposite directions right now. The Zips are playing well at the moment while the Bulls are dreadful on both sides of the ball. Even playing at home hasn’t really worked in the favor of the Bulls. This isn’t the same team that had guys like James Starks, Branden Oliver or Khalil Mack doing damage. Buffalo is flat right now and the Zips are flying. Akron continues their strong run with a convincing road victory.
Jason,
xspower1@hotmail.com
Not a great night..... I should know better then to plays games like Akron & Georgia Southern...... V Tech misses by a half point.... I'm not going down like that!!!
5k USC -19.5 (Winner 45-24)
USC has covered the spread in two of their last three games and all three of their losses have come on the road. They are clicking with Darnald under center and their D has stepped up as of late. The Trojans will continue their dominance over Cal and they will also cover the big 18 point spread.
5k Georgia Southern +6 -115 (Lost)
The Mountaineers are rolling right now but they don’t put up much offensively. It’s tough to shut down a team like Georgia Southern with their tough run game. The Eagles gutted out a tough road win last week over a game New Mexico State team. Both teams are tough defensively so this could be a low scoring affair. That plays more into Georgia Southern’s ball control style as the Eagles get a home win to clutter up the top of the Sun Belt standings. Appalachian State has been winning, but they are going to need a little more then I think their offense is capable of against the Eagles. I look for Georgia Southern to cover the 5 points and improve their conference standing.
5k Virginia Tech -3.5 +103 (Lost 39-36)
Without a more balanced attack on offense, I don’t see Pitt doing enough with the ball to cover the points in this one. Virginia Tech is the better team on both sides of the ball and haven’t had an issue this season when it comes to stopping the run. I think the Hokies defense will force the Panthers out of their comfort zone which will lead to a couple of interceptions. Points off turnover should be enough for Virginia Tech to win by more than 3.5.
5k Akron -18 -105 (Lost)
This one is a match up of teams going in opposite directions right now. The Zips are playing well at the moment while the Bulls are dreadful on both sides of the ball. Even playing at home hasn’t really worked in the favor of the Bulls. This isn’t the same team that had guys like James Starks, Branden Oliver or Khalil Mack doing damage. Buffalo is flat right now and the Zips are flying. Akron continues their strong run with a convincing road victory.
Jason,
xspower1@hotmail.com
FRIDAY RESULTS (1-3) -$10,650 . WEEK 9 SO FAR (2-7) -$21,650
I need to take it easy on all these week day games.... if you like plays favorites your having a great week so far......
5k Navy +6 -104 (Lost)
5k Navy Under 66 -105 (Lost)
5k Utah State +4.5 -104 (Lost)
5k Air Force Over 51 -105 (Winner)
Jason,
xspower1@hotmail.com
I need to take it easy on all these week day games.... if you like plays favorites your having a great week so far......
5k Navy +6 -104 (Lost)
5k Navy Under 66 -105 (Lost)
5k Utah State +4.5 -104 (Lost)
5k Air Force Over 51 -105 (Winner)
Jason,
xspower1@hotmail.com
| [h=1]College Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h] | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (EDT) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Saturday, October 29, 2016 | |||||||
| 12:00pm odds | (121) Connecticut Huskies (122) East Carolina Pirates | 1021 863 |
| 327 290 |
| O 594 U 265 |
|
| 12:00pm odds | (133) Minnesota Golden Gophers (134) Illinois Fighting Illini | 697 495 |
| 350 131 |
| O 417 U 154 |
|
| 12:00pm odds | (139) Penn State Nittany Lions (140) Purdue Boilermakers | 2042 2451 |
| 909 577 |
| O 852 U 1365 |
|
| 12:00pm odds | (143) Louisville Cardinals (144) Virginia Cavaliers | 1548 1075 |
| 191 816 |
| O 897 U 427 |
|
| 12:00pm odds | (147) Kent State Golden Flashes (148) Central Michigan Chippewas | 835 1768 |
| 194 373 |
| O 729 U 598 |
|
|
Click here to go ad free! | |||||||
| 12:00pm odds | (151) Kansas State Wildcats (152) Iowa State Cyclones | 1361 871 |
| 463 321 |
| O 586 U 512 |
|
| 12:00pm odds | (155) West Virginia Mountaineers (156) Oklahoma State Cowboys | 4360 3564 |
| 929 1331 |
| O 2643 U 1384 |
|
| 12:00pm odds | (175) Duke Blue Devils (176) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 1529 880 |
| 504 314 |
| O 713 U 484 |
|
| 12:00pm odds | (183) Central Florida Knights (184) Houston Cougars | 923 3782 |
| 333 876 |
| O 1733 U 643 |
|
| 12:00pm odds | (191) Kentucky Wildcats (192) Missouri Tigers | 2431 1399 |
| 703 289 |
| O 871 U 1307 |
|
| 12:00pm odds | (197) Michigan Wolverines (198) Michigan State Spartans | 3871 3411 |
| 1072 1586 |
| O 2384 U 1258 |
|
| 12:30pm odds | (153) Boston College Eagles (154) NC State Wolfpack | 577 1271 |
| 213 456 |
| O 313 U 538 |
|
| 3:30pm odds | (119) Miami Ohio Red Hawks (120) Eastern Michigan Eagles | 781 1637 |
| 362 214 |
| O 665 U 612 |
|
| 3:30pm odds | (127) W. Kentucky Hilltoppers (128) Florida Atlantic Owls | 1224 569 |
| 177 208 |
| O 640 U 397 |
|
| 3:30pm odds | (129) Cincinnati Bearcats (130) Temple Owls | 1361 1227 |
| 581 198 |
| O 884 U 301 |
|
| 3:30pm odds | (131) Army Black Knights (132) Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 628 1973 |
| 637 215 |
| O 539 U 737 |
|
| 3:30pm odds | (135) Texas Tech Red Raiders (136) TCU Horned Frogs | 2882 1715 |
| 716 442 |
| O 1423 U 1010 |
|
| 3:30pm odds | (141) Maryland Terrapins (142) Indiana Hoosiers | 1674 1464 |
| 611 215 |
| O 1030 U 465 |
|
| 3:30pm odds | (157) Miami Florida Hurricanes (158) Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 2193 1543 |
| 533 765 |
| O 989 U 845 |
|
| 3:30pm odds | (159) Baylor Bears (160) Texas Longhorns | 5362 2393 |
| 1244 1090 |
| O 3178 U 901 |
|
| 3:30pm odds | (169) Northwestern Wildcats (170) Ohio State Buckeyes | 2724 2750 |
| 997 563 |
| O 2307 U 486 |
|
| 3:30pm odds | (177) Georgia Bulldogs (178) Florida Gators | 1791 2011 |
| 764 660 |
| O 790 U 1191 |
|
| 3:30pm odds | (199) Washington Huskies (200) Utah Utes | 3321 3467 |
| 744 1289 |
| O 2732 U 734 |
|
| [h=1]College Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h] | |||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (EDT) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Saturday, October 29, 2016 | |||||||
| 4:00pm odds | (163) SMU Mustangs (164) Tulane Green Wave | 1414 1447 |
| 562 140 |
| O 1168 U 436 |
|
| 5:00pm odds | (145) Georgia State Panthers (146) South Alabama Jaguars | 599 1037 |
| 104 106 |
| O 204 U 384 |
|
| 5:00pm odds | (201) Arizona State Sun Devils (202) Oregon Ducks | 1054 791 |
| 523 81 |
| O 617 U 356 |
|
| 7:00pm odds | (125) Mid Tenn State Blue Raiders (126) Florida Intl Golden Panthers | 1177 715 |
| 115 224 |
| O 528 U 512 |
|
| 7:00pm odds | (137) Kansas Jayhawks (138) Oklahoma Sooners | 763 375 |
| 1 105 |
| O 355 U 254 |
|
| 7:00pm odds | (171) Nebraska Cornhuskers (172) Wisconsin Badgers | 3873 2113 |
| 1457 741 |
| O 1437 U 1617 |
|
| 7:00pm odds | (173) Marshall Thundering Herd (174) Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 226 537 |
| 20 246 |
| O 266 U 113 |
|
| 7:00pm odds | (185) Rice Owls (186) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 395 610 |
| 212 194 |
| O 266 U 221 |
|
| 7:00pm odds | (187) Boise State Broncos (188) Wyoming Cowboys | 1629 1203 |
| 248 706 |
| O 769 U 578 |
|
| 7:00pm odds | (189) North Texas Mean Green (190) TX-San Antonio Roadrunners | 492 185 |
| 195 56 |
| O 225 U 143 |
|
| 7:00pm odds | (193) UL Monroe Warhawks (194) Arkansas State Red Wolves | 561 1011 |
| 40 228 |
| O 616 U 249 |
|
| 7:15pm odds | (179) Auburn Tigers (180) Mississippi Rebels | 4632 1839 |
| 978 1346 |
| O 1982 U 1339 |
|
| 7:15pm odds | (181) Tennessee Volunteers (182) South Carolina Gamecocks | 2009 631 |
| 433 463 |
| O 648 U 622 |
|
| 7:30pm odds | (123) New Mexico State Aggies (124) Texas A&M Aggies | 508 439 |
| 240 163 |
| O 269 U 252 |
|
| 8:00pm odds | (149) Clemson Tigers (150) Florida State Seminoles | 4647 2906 |
| 1193 1433 |
| O 1313 U 2329 |
|
| 8:00pm odds | (161) Tulsa Golden Hurricane (162) Memphis Tigers | 738 999 |
| 318 120 |
| O 570 U 287 |
|
| 8:00pm odds | (195) Old Dominion Monarchs (196) UTEP Miners | 381 124 |
| 86 110 |
| O 234 U 64 |
|
| 10:30pm odds | (203) UNLV Rebels (204) San Jose State Spartans | 1034 488 |
| 110 123 |
| O 401 U 474 |
|
| 10:45pm odds | (165) Washington State Cougars (166) Oregon State Beavers | 1875 967 |
| 478 171 |
| O 925 U 573 |
|
| 11:00pm odds | (167) Stanford Cardinal (168) Arizona Wildcats | 1335 643 |
| 202 426 |
| O 585 U 360 |
|
| 11:59pm odds | (205) New Mexico Lobos (206) Hawaii Warriors | 1189 1142 |
| 351 142 |
| O 809 U 469 |
|
