World cup 2010 preview

[mclosin]

pretty new here i know, i intended to do this next week, but i will likely have more time today then i will have next week, so might as well give it a go right now. im not a big futures guy, but i will give a group future that i see some value at for each group as well as a bet to win the whole shabang.

GROUP A

South Africa -- Im personally a little higher on this team then most people are. They put forth a good show in Confed Cup (last 2 games at least) and of course have the home backing. They have looked good in qualifying up to this point (questionable competition however) and have switched brazilians at the helm. Goal scoring could be a problem, but the defense is pretty sound.

Mexico -- Will be interested in the friendly against Italy today. I get the feeling that this team benefited from a weak qualifying group in CONACAF. Have performed decently in friendlies, I'll be interested to see how they handle the pressure of opening up the cup against the host side.

Uruguay -- This is a team i really dont have a good feel of to be honest. Forlan is a talented player and they made it through the very tough CONEMBOL qualifying process. I think the game against France is key, if they can get a result (I think they will) they have a great shot of staying in this tournament to see the KO round.

France -- The defacto "1 seed" in this group. Personally, I dont see whats so great about this team. They looked awful in Euro 08, sluggish in qualifying, borderline cheated to get past the Irish, and now they are favored to win the group. They have the best side on paper in group A, but it remains to be seen if that will lead to wins over the next 2 weeks.

Group A Future -- France NOT to qualify +250. all of these futures are from the greek, im not actually placing these so im not line shopping, may be a better price out there. honestly, france could easily win this group, however, this group appears to be most up for grabs so why not go with the biggest odds? its also quite possible they lose to uruguay outta the box (im thinking draw tho) and are chasing the group from then on. plus, they dont exactly have a ton of karma goin for them if you believe in that sort of thing.

will be back in a little with Group B Forecast.

 

[mclosin]

Group B

Argentina -- The favorites of the group. Led by a clueless coach, this team got 4th in CONEMBOL qualifying. easily the most talent in this group, on paper we should have a cakewalk. im a little confused at the friendly schedule, they played canada on the 24th of may and thats it until the nigeria game? something is off with this team but id still have a hard time going against them not winning or making it outta this group, this team should be on instafade once the big matches start.

Nigeria -- Nigerias strength appears to be its forwards. Back after missing the 06 cup, they are under the management of lars lagerback, the old swede boss. he did a fine job with the swedes, now he leads the super eagles. granted, he has not had much time with the team since only being appointed in february, but they do appear to be the 2nd team in this group. im not sure how much being on the home continent will matter, actually it may be a disadvantage since south africa is in the winter months.

Greece -- Greeks are normally known for their defensive prowess, however im not so sure this team is all that great at the back. i saw a good deal of the paraguay friendly and i wasnt that impressed. in qualifying, they also conceded 10 goals in 10 games, but 4 of those games were against luxembourg and moldova. i do expect a very safe approach from this bunch and i feel like 3 points is a must against south korea if they want to advance any further.

South Korea -- probably the class of asia, sans australia. this team has been a fixture of world cup for 16 years now and had little success until the 4th place finish in 02 (benefited by shaky officiating and home cooking no doubt). this team has been all over the map in friendlies recently from beating ivory coast in england to losing to belarus. today they are playing the spanish in austria. they did qualify quite easily from asia, not sure thats much of an accomplishment.

Group B Future -- south korea to qualify +235. i dont think there is much between greece nigeria and south korea. the koreans were here in 06 and appear to have the most cohesion of these 3 teams going in group play. they did have a decent show in 06, beating togo and tying france before losing to the swiss in the group finale. i wouldnt expect much past this point to be honest if the koreans do survive the group.

VERY IN DEPTH GROUP C PREVIEW on the way shortly.

 

[Martinga]

Group B

Argentina -- The favorites of the group. Led by a clueless coach, this team got 4th in CONEMBOL qualifying. easily the most talent in this group, on paper we should have a cakewalk. im a little confused at the friendly schedule, they played canada on the 24th of may and thats it until the nigeria game? something is off with this team but id still have a hard time going against them not winning or making it outta this group, this team should be on instafade once the big matches start.

Nigeria -- Nigerias strength appears to be its forwards. Back after missing the 06 cup, they are under the management of lars lagerback, the old swede boss. he did a fine job with the swedes, now he leads the super eagles. granted, he has not had much time with the team since only being appointed in february, but they do appear to be the 2nd team in this group. im not sure how much being on the home continent will matter, actually it may be a disadvantage since south africa is in the winter months.

Greece -- Greeks are normally known for their defensive prowess, however im not so sure this team is all that great at the back. i saw a good deal of the paraguay friendly and i wasnt that impressed. in qualifying, they also conceded 10 goals in 10 games, but 4 of those games were against luxembourg and moldova. i do expect a very safe approach from this bunch and i feel like 3 points is a must against south korea if they want to advance any further.

South Korea -- probably the class of asia, sans australia. this team has been a fixture of world cup for 16 years now and had little success until the 4th place finish in 02 (benefited by shaky officiating and home cooking no doubt). this team has been all over the map in friendlies recently from beating ivory coast in england to losing to belarus. today they are playing the spanish in austria. they did qualify quite easily from asia, not sure thats much of an accomplishment.

Group B Future -- south korea to qualify +235. i dont think there is much between greece nigeria and south korea. the koreans were here in 06 and appear to have the most cohesion of these 3 teams going in group play. they did have a decent show in 06, beating togo and tying france before losing to the swiss in the group finale. i wouldnt expect much past this point to be honest if the koreans do survive the group.

VERY IN DEPTH GROUP C PREVIEW on the way shortly.

Wow, finally someone i can agree with almost 100%
Except the Argentina instafade thing (but again, it would be biased from me considering im from there)

 

[mclosin]

Group C

England -- The old kings of football might finally be living up to that name. I happen to think this is the best squad England have had in recent memory. I think Capello is a far greater manager then SGE could ever be, and i think the English have a real shot at taking down the cup. If they can get by the USA in game 1 (not much an if IMO), they should be able to coast on through to the KO rounds (so they can lose on penalties again).

USA -- An enigma to me. They can beat anyone, and lose to anyone. They seem to play their best as underdogs (italy in 06, spain in confed cup), yet their defense has been very high school at times. The friendly against turkey was a perfect example, extremely lucky they werent 2 or 3 down at half, they rebounded and played a great 2nd half. im going to be very interseted in saturdays game with the aussies, a team i have been impressed with recently. i think usa should have quite a crowd backing them and it would make for a good showing if they can get to the KO round. i think if this team can string together some passes and keep posession they will be fine (huge IF). also im worried they dont have a great technical player who can score a 1 v 1 goal if they are in a pinch.

slovenia -- a classic "park the bus" type squad. sound defensively, and will wait for you to make a mistake and capitalize. the usa, a team with a penchant for defensive mishap, should play right into their hands. usa will have a hard time breaking this team down IMO. i still think usa catches a break that this team is in the group oppose to russia (big upset IMO, i believe of all the euro playoffs, slovenia had the biggest odds to advance, i could be wrong on this though).

algeria -- another team in on an upset of egypt. i know the usa beat egypt 3-0 in confed cup, but i feel like egypt would have been a much stronger squad to occupy this place (egypt won in african cup 4-0 over them). this team is also saddled with injury and hasnt looked very good in friendlies at all.

Group C future -- Slovenia to qualify +175. if usa drops game 1 against england, they are suddenly chasing the group. i have been saying from day 1 this group schedule sets up horrible for the usa assuming they lose to england. the usa would then get slovenia in game 2, and be losing out on points to them. lets say slovenia just draw with algeria. a draw against usa would put them at 2 points and the usa at 1. assuming england beats algeria, we would have them at 1st place with 6 points wrapped up. suddenly they have a completely meaningless game against slovenia where if slovenia were to win they would have 5 points and still be 2nd to englands 6. if the usa can steal a point against the english, it would make qualifying for the KO stage much easier, but i think i would have to go with the plus value i get on slovenia.

short break then group D

 

[mclosin]

martinga,

thanks for the comments. any feedback is greatly appreciated, this is such a global event its close to impossible to know everything about every team. i was thinking about rolltides argentina fail in group stage bet, but just seems like to much a stretch for me even at that price that they stub their toe and 2 of those 3 leapfrog them. i do think they will get out-tacticked in the later rounds IMO.

 

[rolltide]

I pretty much dead-on agree with your assessments

Group A - I really think So Africa can surprise as Mex/Uru/Fra are infinitely beatable and actually predict both Mex and Fra are eliminated. Uruguay have impressed in every match I watched of CONMEBOL except away to Peru and I love their frontline of Forlan and Loco Abreu. France and Mexico are both coaching challenged IMO though plenty of talent on both sides. Biggest factor against Mexico is that most of their non-locals don't even play with their European clubs so fitness and game experience isn't there over last 3 years like with the others

Group B - I still don't think Arg gets out of the group and the general public's love of this team enhances that feeling. No way they can be -1.25 goals against any team in the group IMO, yet sure enough the public has bet Arg like they know the FT score against Nigeria. I like Nigeria in this group as they will be most comfortable with altitude while Greece has played the best competition over the past 3 seasons. So Korea, Nigeria, and Greece all have significantly better defenses than Argentina but public likes offense, not defense

Group C - Nothing showed better how unpredictable the USA is than the Turkish friendly. In the first half they could have been down 3-0 easily and generated exactly zero chances, then in 2nd half played the best football I've ever seen a USMNT play. They can beat England as easily as they can get drubbed though our outside fullbacks will likely see a drubbing. I think Algeria are the worst team in the World Cup only here because of a gentleman's draw in qualifying. I predict 0 goals and max 1 point for them. Slovenia are tough as hell but the USA handle tough teams like Poland with general ease so not too worried about them. USA and England for me

 

[mclosin]

Group D (the real death group IMO)

Germany -- no ballack, no klinnsman, some questions. this team ripped through qualifying and has traditionally performed well at this stage. i also believe they have 23 players from the bundesliga, which is quite unusual (wouldnt be the case if not for ballack injury). they also have little experience at goalkeeper. this could actually be the year the germans get clipped in the group stage, but itll be very hard to go against them. they still have the best talent of this entire group.

Serbia -- this team was a surprise winner of their qualifying group over france. looking over their roster, it has quite more talent then i had anticipated. they looked pretty strong in friendlies until the loss to new zealand also a draw in a monsoon against poland yesterday. will the stink of an awful performance in 06 still linger for this team? that remains to be seen. i think its huge they get off to a good start against ghana in the opener.

Ghana -- one of the surprises of the 06 Group of Death, they made it to the KO round, even though most had them figured for 4th. its been a mixed bag for this team lately, they were soundly beaten by the dutch just a few days ago. no michael essien either, much bigger loss then ballack IMO since this team has nowhere near the depth of germany. a loss to the serbs will end their hopes quite quickly IMO.

Australia -- appear to be the 4th team in this group, which is why i call it the real group of death. clearly the best 4th team in any group. they have beaten new zealand and denmark in friendlys and will take on the usa saturday. they breezed through afc qualifying in their first go around with the confederation. plenty of international pedigree on this side as well, they also had a nice run ended by a questionable call in 06, but this time no guus will be around.

group D future: serbia -110 to qualify. i must admit im pretty sold on this side, even with the bad results as of late. i think they will be able to squeeze through in this group and i think they beat ghana right off the bat. this is another group very up for grabs though australia at +200 to advance doesnt seem to be the worst option out there.

 

[mclosin]

good assessments roll. it just seems so ridiculous that argentina doesnt make it outta that group, although if it does happen i will give you plenty of props. i do think that the team is going to be far overvalued all tournament and do think that they will be decent plays getting a goal or 1.5 against argentina.

i think usa has a shot at something special against the english i really do, but im worried about the fallout of a loss. chasing the group is never a good thing, and since they went to the 32 team format, its a real uphill climb for a first game loser. i will say that i didnt realize how bad algeria actually was until i looked into it. i gave them more credit then they probably deserved just for being an african side.

lunch break then ill be back with the remainder of the groups e-h.

 

[mclosin]

Group E

Holland -- The dutch dominated a crap euro group to get to this point and have been quite impressive in friendlies. they also looked quite the team in euro 08 dominating the "group of death" before a shock loss to russia in the quaterfinals of that event. once again, this appears to be a team better on offense then defense, and that may be their undoing down the road, but i think they should do just fine in this group.

Cameroon -- on paper they have pretty good talent, but just recently the best player samuel etoo threatened to quit. he was recently red carded in the friendly against portugal, and the team succumbed to defeat. im not sure what to make of this team to be honest. they have enough talent to make a run in this whole tournament (even if they get 2nd to holland in this group) but they could also flame out in the group stage and i wouldnt be shocked.

Denmark -- this team is about on par with cameroon. i think cameroon probably has more talent but this team is more physical and better defensively. it will likely be between them and cameroon for 2nd spot. they did win the qualifying group including both portugal and sweden, which was kind of a shock. in fact, the books have the denmark cameroon match listed as a dead heat.

Japan -- this is another team thats a mess right now. this team contains mostly j-league players and probably is a bit overmatched in this group. they do have experience going for them, qualifying in 98 and 06 and hosting in 02. they have played a pretty challenging friendly schedule (korea, england, serbia(all losses, korea and serbia games on home soil), and Ivory coast on saturday), so they should be about as ready as can be for the world cup.

Group E future -- netherlands/cameroon, denmark exacta. basically bet netherlands first then cameroon 2nd, as well as netherlands first denmark 2nd (both pay +250). im pretty confident that the dutch win this group and that japan is going home after 3 games. japan to finish last at -120 is good but this has much better value IMO.

 

[mclosin]

Group F

Italy -- the defending champs, well a lot has changed in four years. this team is a bit over the hill IMO. they looked pretty bad in the confederation cup (added by a red card against USA) and were a penalty save by buffon against romania away from going home from euro08 early. they are still a well organized defensive unit, and wont go down without a fight, but i dont expect much from this team after this stage to be honest.

Paraguay -- my sleeper team. a well organized defensive side with some talent up top. i thought they were a hard luck team in 06, and they have been in every world cup since 1998. 2006 was the first time they did not reach the knockout stage. they have acquitted themselves well up to this point in both qualifying and friendlies and they find themselves in a fairly weak group. i wont be suprised if they win this group at all.

Slovakia -- i believe this is the first time they are in the world cup. before this, all they were known for was the hostel movies. them and slovenia made it out of a group that i think many expected to have either the czechs or poles take down. they drew cameroon in a recent friendly, but im not so sure im sold on the talent of this team (also lost a home friendly to norway).

New Zealand -- the "minnows" of this event. ill be honest, i laughed when i saw they would be here after watching them in confed cup. they have played a challenging friendly schedule and havent shown as bad as one might expect (even beating serbia). this team could be a fiesty dog in some spots, but i dont really expect anything by way of results.

Group F future -- paraguay/italy exacta +425. might as well do it this way. ill be mighty suprised if these 2 dont advance. italy/paraguay only pays +125 and i think that paraguay has a great shot to take the group and put italy, who are usually slow starters anyway into 2nd place.

 

[mclosin]

Group G (media group of death)

Brazil -- well, not much i can say here thats not already known. dunga is a more defensive minded coach and this brazil team is better on defense then brazil teams of the past.

Ivory Coast -- this team is getting a lot of longshot talk to win the whole tournament and im not seeing it at all. SGE was a clown coach in england and mexico during his time there, now hes behind the ivory bench. the team has a lot of talent, but their weaknesses are manager and defense, 2 places that will almost surely cost them.

Portugal -- this is another jekyll and hyde team. the best player constantly fails to show up on the big stage, and they have played a pretty light freindly schedule aside from the victory against cameroon (red card aided). then there was the baffling home draw against cape verde with the majority of the squad playing. with all that said, they have enough talent to make a run in this tournament.

North Korea -- i think few people expected this team to be here, im one of them. i know this is another deep defending side who are all familiar with one another being that they play for the domestic league. they have had some half decent results in friendlies up to this point. im not expecting any miracles outta them, but they may manage a point and ultimately decide this group. worse teams have gotten points outta this event before.

Group G future bet -- portugal to NOT qualify +120. in reality i think its pretty close with the ivorys and portugal, but im giving a slight edge to the ivorys, even though the book says otherwise. in all honestly, both sides have enough talent to manage something against brazil, so i didnt feel the 1 2 exacta here, even though i do think brazil takes the group.

 

[mclosin]

Group H

Spain -- possibly the most talent of all, even more then brazil. this team is not as good on defense as brazil and also more capable of a complete gag job, even though they breezed through qualifying in europe and definitely looked like the best team in euro 08. super easy group for them IMO.

Chile -- i believe suazo will be out for the opener with honduras, which would be quite a loss. this team is capable of scoring 5 goals in a game, they are also capable of letting in 5 goals. that will burn them at some point, maybe not till after this round is over.

Swiss -- not impressed by this team at all. just lost a home friendly to costa rica (not even in the world cup from CONACAF no less), and the great defense from 06 (0 goals allowed all tournament) appears to be gone. this team also failed to get outta group stage in euro 08 despite being at home. they havent looked good in the friendlies up to this point, and i dont see them advancing any further.

Honduras -- talk about saving the worst for last. honduras might be the worst team in the whole tournament. they are the beneficiary of a costa rica gag job for the most part. last 3 friendlies they lost to venezuela at home and drew belarus and azerbaijan in austria. not exactly a murderers row.

Group H future -- Spain/Chile +120. could be in for a real scorefest if both of these teams have 6 points going into the last game. spain is a clear 1 in this group, chile is a clear 2 IMO.

 

[rolltide]

looks like we are eerily on the same page:

Group D - Many are down on the Germans due to the recent spell of injuries in their midfield but they're just a hell of a lot better than all three teams in this group, and will win it with ease. The Serbs are a dominant defensive club and certainly favorites to advance with Germany but they are pathetic in front of the net...a great unders bet always. Ghana are a mess and now have no chance to advance. Essien, by far their best player and perhaps only real superstar, isn't fit and the punk on Pompey made damn sure the Germans won't overlook them. I like the Aussies quite a bit but they will battle Ghana to stay off the bottom I believe. Serbs and Germans but not in that order though I'd rate Australia as maybe the best "4th best" team in any group.

Group E - Cameroon are a team I can't figure out. On one hand they have talent, like Eto'o, but the prospects of an African team stuck in a group with 2 strong Euro qualifiers doesn't give me a lot of hope. I think it is clearly b/w them and Denmark to qualify as the Dutch are just head and shoulders above the others. Japan are a mess but they've dominated African sides now 5-1-0 16/4 against them since last WC. I really wouldn't be surprised to see the Japs come out of nowhere to join Netherlands in group play although most believe they will have max 2 points.

Group F - Italy will not go far after groups. Another team with major coaching issues having left off most all competent scorers. But, with the weak Kiwis and weak Slovaks in their group they are nearly assured qualification likely with the Paraguayans. I'll be all over under 2 in Italy/Paraguay!

Group G - can't call them the group of death because they all have North Korea to kick around much like Group B has Algeria. Brazil are too good for either IC or Portugal but I give the nod to Ivory Coast to advance with the Brazilians. Expect North Korea matches to be played over as goal difference can easily decide 2nd place and all 3 other teams know the way to get that is to bury the North Koreans

Group H - Spain is the best team in the world and will advance...period. Honduras is an interesting team but outside of USA/MEX all concacaf teams get drubbed in the world cup. I really don't like the Swiss at all while Chile can be THE surprise team of WC2010 so I expect them to advance with the Spanards.

 

[mclosin]

World cup winner futures

these are the ones i see the best value and worst value with a short reasoning.

BEST FAV: Brazil +450 -- i pick brazil every year to be honest.
WORST FAV: Argentina +500 -- an implosion waiting to happen, watch and see.

NICE LONGSHOT THAT MIGHT SURPRISE: Paraguay +8000 -- like this team a lot, also seem to have quite an easy road. you can start hedging this if they make the quarters and you dont like the matchup.

"TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE": Italy +800, France +1800, Ivory Coast +2000

That concludes my preview. I will be back over the next week or so and try and answer any questions or criticisms.

 

[mclosin]

yes roll i was looking to freely fade the italians in world cup, but they get stuck in a group which has 2 pretty junky teams.

i wonder if we get some "4 years ago" value in the serbia ghana match, i actually kinda feel like ghana is the 4th team in that group, not australia, even though i said australia in my earlier post.

i kinda think we get a draw in that ivory portugal match to start and it will come down to the other 2 matches with those squads.

 

[wannabewhale]

Great read-thanks for sharing and GL

 

[born2gamble]

Group H - Spain is the best team in the world...period.

No way.

 

[X-Files]

group D future: serbia -110 to qualify. i must admit im pretty sold on this side

Likewise. Already put in the bet at that exact price, before it changes.

NICE LONGSHOT THAT MIGHT SURPRISE: Paraguay +8000 -- like this team a lot, also seem to have quite an easy road. you can start hedging this if they make the quarters and you dont like the matchup.

Apart from the Greek at the same number, the value is incredibly enhanced on this
everywhere that i looked, Pinnacle +11000, Matchbook +10000, BetFair 120/1.
In gambling shopping to get the best price can be half the battle.

 

[rolltide]

No way.

lol, way to leave out my "and will advance...period." jagoff

talk about people seeing or reading what they want. what a tool.

mclosin, nice job with your previews...hopefully we're both right on the Argentines. We'll see soon enough

 

[mclosin]

thanks roll. i figured i would get it out there yesterday cuz that would be the most time i would have and i wanted it to be as good as possible. i see some guy on another site apparently well respected has picked argentina to win the whole thing, im quite baffled to be honest. he happens to share my love for paraguay as well though.

x, yes the serb side has more talent than i had initially realized. i think they have a pretty good chance to advance and may even win the group. i did say that i was using the greeks lines only earlier on in my preview and that better lines could be out there, and i appreciate you pointing those out for the paraguay to win the cup bet.