Well so I guess all thats left is to figure out where value lies in the Canada vs. New Zealand matchup. This, as near as I can figure, is the last game on the slate and the outcome of China Netherlands has a huge impact on Standing of these 2 teams within Group A:
vs.
How will Canada perform on the big stage with the bright lights and eyes of their nation on them after they struggled in their first game, vs. CHINA?
It took a controversial penalty, a "miracle" frankly, for Canada to beat China with a Penalty Kick goal on a penalty that should have never been called.
Unfortunately we can't take much from that game in the way of knowing what to expect from the Canadian Women in this spot because China really beat them up fouling them 15 times and New Zealand is gonna be a lot less physical a test than China was so we could see a Canada team that does not struggle as they did vs. the very physical China or we could see a Canada that is overly-cautious, afraid of making mistakes and less aggressive than they need to be or we could see a Canada MUCH more aggressive, relieved at a match that is far less physical than was the Chinese game. We just don't know because whatever talent or lack of such Canada has was obscured by them taking shots to the head and body from Girls whose names sound like the sound of a bunch of silverware hitting the floor.
We just have no way of knowing what to expect from Canada here. It'll take this game for us to know what we have, in this Canadian team.
Its why that -205 is so expensive here....terribly expensive.
We need to see what Canada has got cuz China kicking their ass kinda camoflauged what this team is....and is not.
New Zealand has have never won a game at this level. Ever. This is their fourth appearance in the World Cup and New Zealand has yet to win a match (0-9-1). That amounts to a streak of 10 matches and includes just that one draw when Coach Herdman was coaching them but he's now coaching CANADA and recently said "Very clearly, we're a better team ... And I think quality for quality, we're a better team than New Zealand" which has really pissed New Zealand off.
What do they have to be mad about though?, they haven't won a game in their last 7 and have outright lost their last 3 games in a row which when compared to Canada's 8 wins in their last 10 games suggests their former coach is just telling the truth and they need to accept that, quit being a bunch of crybabies and play better so people don't say mean things about them.
New Zealand's defeats prior to the one against the Netherlands to open this World Cup did come against top quality teams like the United States and Japan which they'll be quick to tell you through their sobs about what Coach Herdman said about them but they simply do not score goals and have historically have not scoried goals for some time now so its their own fault. They need to score Goals. Theres no negotiating on this point, this is an absolute necessity. If they want to win and get people to stop saying mean things about them they need to score Goals. This is not Calculus.
Don't get me wrong, I sympathize with the New Zealand Girls I know it hurts to have your feelings hurt when someone says mean things about you and if I was there I would take them all out for an Ice Cream Cone but I'd tell 'em there, in the Ice Cream Shoppe, that this is a brutal world but theres a way out of their situation and its not a complex equation they just need to start scoring goals and everything will be better.
While a play on Canada here might seem obvious the -205 pricetag is very very high for a team that has shown us only struggle vs. China....whether they were pushed around or not, all we've seen from them thus far is struggle. Thats all the evidence we have to work with.
Canada has to be relieved to have gotten the first game out of the way (and they probably feel less positive about Chinese People than they did going into that match), theres the "Host Argument" for backing them and certainly the fact they are facing a team that is likely to not score a Goal argues for backing them here but, again.
Its like a Brick Wall.
So what to do?
The opening games for these teams were really really tight matches both ending 1-0, NZ on the losing end of theirs of course because they do not score Goals, Canada managing their one and only goal as result of a stupid penalty, they too should have been blanked by the very physical China team so would it be reasonable to expect this CAN-NZ game to be a low or even no scoring affair? Both these teams didn't score last out save for that stupid undeserved penalty kick.
The lack of quality shown by New Zealand in the final third in their opening game has to be a concern for a betting on a 0-0 DRAW here and NZ has (of course) failed to score any Goals in their last couple of games against Canada so if Canada were to score even ONE goal a bet on DRAW would be seriously tested. Because to get a 1-1 Draw NZ would have to score a goal and that is just very very hard to imagine.
The Hosts will earn another three points and win this 1-0 or 2-0, New Zealand will be effectively done and require more Ice Cream and Kleenex. If you can get the bet backing them to with a clean sheet that might be the best way to get involved. Canada Women Win to Nil +225 but those who don't have access to that play, dudes without ins at thowse exotic English Books, should consider the Under 2.5 -123 but stay mindful of the fact that, again, we can't really predict what we're gonna see out of Canada here cuz China was a much more physical test than New Zealand will be so its not totally inconceivable that Canada, free of the physicality they were plagued by from China is able to run FREE and unburdened, not getting their asses kicked up and down the pitch, put up THREE on NZ.
Theres just no way for us to know if they have the talent to do that, the presence of mind to do it amidst the pressure of playing before their nation and the ability to play as a cohesive unit to put up a 3 spot.
Standard Disclaimer is that I don't know anything about Soccer, I just like to Gamble. Thoughts above are my own combined with the writeup on this match at http://www.goonersguide.com so do your own due diligence, arrive at your own plays or blindly follow if you choose but don't get mad at me if a lean I have loses. The purpose of this thread is to discuss these matchups, share opinions & knowledge to help us make the best value plays in 2015 Women's World Cup and not to create the illusion that I know what I'm talking about because I don't.
How will Canada perform on the big stage with the bright lights and eyes of their nation on them after they struggled in their first game, vs. CHINA?
It took a controversial penalty, a "miracle" frankly, for Canada to beat China with a Penalty Kick goal on a penalty that should have never been called.
Unfortunately we can't take much from that game in the way of knowing what to expect from the Canadian Women in this spot because China really beat them up fouling them 15 times and New Zealand is gonna be a lot less physical a test than China was so we could see a Canada team that does not struggle as they did vs. the very physical China or we could see a Canada that is overly-cautious, afraid of making mistakes and less aggressive than they need to be or we could see a Canada MUCH more aggressive, relieved at a match that is far less physical than was the Chinese game. We just don't know because whatever talent or lack of such Canada has was obscured by them taking shots to the head and body from Girls whose names sound like the sound of a bunch of silverware hitting the floor.
We just have no way of knowing what to expect from Canada here. It'll take this game for us to know what we have, in this Canadian team.
Its why that -205 is so expensive here....terribly expensive.
We need to see what Canada has got cuz China kicking their ass kinda camoflauged what this team is....and is not.
New Zealand has have never won a game at this level. Ever. This is their fourth appearance in the World Cup and New Zealand has yet to win a match (0-9-1). That amounts to a streak of 10 matches and includes just that one draw when Coach Herdman was coaching them but he's now coaching CANADA and recently said "Very clearly, we're a better team ... And I think quality for quality, we're a better team than New Zealand" which has really pissed New Zealand off.
What do they have to be mad about though?, they haven't won a game in their last 7 and have outright lost their last 3 games in a row which when compared to Canada's 8 wins in their last 10 games suggests their former coach is just telling the truth and they need to accept that, quit being a bunch of crybabies and play better so people don't say mean things about them.
New Zealand's defeats prior to the one against the Netherlands to open this World Cup did come against top quality teams like the United States and Japan which they'll be quick to tell you through their sobs about what Coach Herdman said about them but they simply do not score goals and have historically have not scoried goals for some time now so its their own fault. They need to score Goals. Theres no negotiating on this point, this is an absolute necessity. If they want to win and get people to stop saying mean things about them they need to score Goals. This is not Calculus.
Don't get me wrong, I sympathize with the New Zealand Girls I know it hurts to have your feelings hurt when someone says mean things about you and if I was there I would take them all out for an Ice Cream Cone but I'd tell 'em there, in the Ice Cream Shoppe, that this is a brutal world but theres a way out of their situation and its not a complex equation they just need to start scoring goals and everything will be better.
While a play on Canada here might seem obvious the -205 pricetag is very very high for a team that has shown us only struggle vs. China....whether they were pushed around or not, all we've seen from them thus far is struggle. Thats all the evidence we have to work with.
Canada has to be relieved to have gotten the first game out of the way (and they probably feel less positive about Chinese People than they did going into that match), theres the "Host Argument" for backing them and certainly the fact they are facing a team that is likely to not score a Goal argues for backing them here but, again.
-205.
Its like a Brick Wall.
So what to do?
The opening games for these teams were really really tight matches both ending 1-0, NZ on the losing end of theirs of course because they do not score Goals, Canada managing their one and only goal as result of a stupid penalty, they too should have been blanked by the very physical China team so would it be reasonable to expect this CAN-NZ game to be a low or even no scoring affair? Both these teams didn't score last out save for that stupid undeserved penalty kick.
The lack of quality shown by New Zealand in the final third in their opening game has to be a concern for a betting on a 0-0 DRAW here and NZ has (of course) failed to score any Goals in their last couple of games against Canada so if Canada were to score even ONE goal a bet on DRAW would be seriously tested. Because to get a 1-1 Draw NZ would have to score a goal and that is just very very hard to imagine.
The Hosts will earn another three points and win this 1-0 or 2-0, New Zealand will be effectively done and require more Ice Cream and Kleenex. If you can get the bet backing them to with a clean sheet that might be the best way to get involved. Canada Women Win to Nil +225 but those who don't have access to that play, dudes without ins at thowse exotic English Books, should consider the Under 2.5 -123 but stay mindful of the fact that, again, we can't really predict what we're gonna see out of Canada here cuz China was a much more physical test than New Zealand will be so its not totally inconceivable that Canada, free of the physicality they were plagued by from China is able to run FREE and unburdened, not getting their asses kicked up and down the pitch, put up THREE on NZ.
Theres just no way for us to know if they have the talent to do that, the presence of mind to do it amidst the pressure of playing before their nation and the ability to play as a cohesive unit to put up a 3 spot.
Standard Disclaimer is that I don't know anything about Soccer, I just like to Gamble. Thoughts above are my own combined with the writeup on this match at http://www.goonersguide.com so do your own due diligence, arrive at your own plays or blindly follow if you choose but don't get mad at me if a lean I have loses. The purpose of this thread is to discuss these matchups, share opinions & knowledge to help us make the best value plays in 2015 Women's World Cup and not to create the illusion that I know what I'm talking about because I don't.
