Championship Sunday 2-1
Post Season 6-3 66.67%
YTD 77-44 63.64%
with the Patriots playing in the SB, this may just be the last day I post NFL plays this season
was a great run, just need 1 more SU win to complete my year
Post Season 6-3 66.67%
YTD 77-44 63.64%
with the Patriots playing in the SB, this may just be the last day I post NFL plays this season
was a great run, just need 1 more SU win to complete my year
:homer:
Both teams have great offenses, two of the best in the game. One team has arguably the GOAT at QB, inarguabley the man with the best post season record in the history of the game. The other QB was the league's best this year, but an unknown commodity on this stage. If any advantage is to be given, it has to be to TB12. He's been there, he's done it all, he's been at his best in the 4th quarter of these games. They will never be out of it, they'll never be scared.
One team has one of the best defenses in the league, the other team has one of the worst. the Patriots are especially effective in the red zone, they are the classic bend but don't break and they're the organization that perfected that defensive philosophy.
Both teams are well coached, one team has arguably the GOAT. You know BB is going to have an awesome game plan to slow down the Falcons offense and win the game.
Anybody can win this game, anyone who suggests otherwise is lying to themselves.
I think NE controls the ball and slows the game down. I think the Patriots will stop Atlanta a couple of more times than Atl stops NE, I think they'll hold them to 2 or 3 FG's in the red zone, I think that will be the difference.
I don't think it's going to be high scoring because of the Patriots game planning, I don't think they're going to try and win a shootout, but I don't bet totals because I don't tend to win totals.
NE 28
Atl 20
Both teams have great offenses, two of the best in the game. One team has arguably the GOAT at QB, inarguabley the man with the best post season record in the history of the game. The other QB was the league's best this year, but an unknown commodity on this stage. If any advantage is to be given, it has to be to TB12. He's been there, he's done it all, he's been at his best in the 4th quarter of these games. They will never be out of it, they'll never be scared.
One team has one of the best defenses in the league, the other team has one of the worst. the Patriots are especially effective in the red zone, they are the classic bend but don't break and they're the organization that perfected that defensive philosophy.
Both teams are well coached, one team has arguably the GOAT. You know BB is going to have an awesome game plan to slow down the Falcons offense and win the game.
Anybody can win this game, anyone who suggests otherwise is lying to themselves.
I think NE controls the ball and slows the game down. I think the Patriots will stop Atlanta a couple of more times than Atl stops NE, I think they'll hold them to 2 or 3 FG's in the red zone, I think that will be the difference.
I don't think it's going to be high scoring because of the Patriots game planning, I don't think they're going to try and win a shootout, but I don't bet totals because I don't tend to win totals.
NE 28
Atl 20
Great season Willie. Congrats! Go pats.
Shooting down a few theories on this game:
1) The Patriots have played a weak schedule. This is true. But the NFL is all about match-ups. This is why we commonly see teams like the Rams upset great teams like SEA multiple times. The Falcons have never shown me anything noteworthy against the Patriots. Belichick has their number. It's about how one team matches up with the other. The patriots struggle against teams with world class defenses. It has been, and always will be a problem for Brady. When teams hit him hard, over and over, and the pass coverage is on point, he is human and he will get rattled. When Denver beat the patriots last year they were able to hit him hard the entire game. The patriots do not have trouble against teams with good receivers. Look at PIT. Antonio Brown is arguably the best receiver in the game and they were able to stop him from making half of his plays. IF the Patriots do lose this game, I honestly think it's because Matt Ryan is absolutely on point with all of his receivers and the Falcons end up playing one of their best offensive games in franchise history. Their defense has improved but it is not something you can count on yet. I really think for the Falcons to pull the upset they have to both 1) Have one of the best/the best offensive game of their season AND 2) Defense has to also play lights out in addition to point 1.
2) Falcons are inexperienced in the post-season, but since Quinn has most of the experience the past 3 years making it to the post-season, everything's fine. Why are people saying this? The head coach does not play the game. Sure, the head coach game plans and gives the players advice on what to do when they hit the field, but the head coach doesn't play the snaps. He doesn't play the coverage. He doesn't even touch the ball. People place more importance on the head coach having super bowl experience than the guys who are actually playing the game. This is a huge data point to miss. Ryan doesn't have a track record of excelling under pressure. Quite the opposite. Neither does most of the Falcons as a team. Someone reported on ESPN that the Falcons only have 2 or 3 players who have ever been to the super bowl. Brady has more experience on his own (6 super bowls) than the entire falcons roster (5 super bowls). Matt Ryan has made two starts against the Pats and he lost both of those games. Back to Dan Quinn, this is his first game head-to-head against Belichick as a head coach. Not good. It will be a huge test for him. So not only is it Dan Quinn's first go at Belichick in the post season, but he's the guy who has all the experience in the super bowl and he doesn't even get to touch the ball. If I had to take a shot at it and guessing high, the head coach will make 33% of the impact on this game while the players have the other 66%. The bottom line is that it's up to the players to execute the game plan that the coach put out. Every head coach including Belichick will tell any half ass reporter that ultimately it's the players who decide the game and I strongly believe that it's mostly the players who will decide this game. Coaches definitely matter, sure, but not nearly as much as the players do.
If the Falcons pull the upset, I think they will not only have to have one of the best offensive games in franchise history, but they will also have to have that young and improving defense step up to the plate and keep Brady down the entire game. On top of those two big points, Matt Ryan has to prove something to everyone in the post season, and so far he doesn't have a great track record in big games. I think the Falcons can do it, but I think everything has to go right for them to win.
The books setting the spread at 3 is calling for this to be a close game and I couldn't agree more. I think this game will be one of the better games in superbowl history. I have no idea who is going to win the game, lean pats. Cheers to a great season!
Shooting down a few theories on this game:
1) The Patriots have played a weak schedule. This is true. But the NFL is all about match-ups. This is why we commonly see teams like the Rams upset great teams like SEA multiple times. The Falcons have never shown me anything noteworthy against the Patriots. Belichick has their number. It's about how one team matches up with the other. The patriots struggle against teams with world class defenses. It has been, and always will be a problem for Brady. When teams hit him hard, over and over, and the pass coverage is on point, he is human and he will get rattled. When Denver beat the patriots last year they were able to hit him hard the entire game. The patriots do not have trouble against teams with good receivers. Look at PIT. Antonio Brown is arguably the best receiver in the game and they were able to stop him from making half of his plays. IF the Patriots do lose this game, I honestly think it's because Matt Ryan is absolutely on point with all of his receivers and the Falcons end up playing one of their best offensive games in franchise history. Their defense has improved but it is not something you can count on yet. I really think for the Falcons to pull the upset they have to both 1) Have one of the best/the best offensive game of their season AND 2) Defense has to also play lights out in addition to point 1.
2) Falcons are inexperienced in the post-season, but since Quinn has most of the experience the past 3 years making it to the post-season, everything's fine. Why are people saying this? The head coach does not play the game. Sure, the head coach game plans and gives the players advice on what to do when they hit the field, but the head coach doesn't play the snaps. He doesn't play the coverage. He doesn't even touch the ball. People place more importance on the head coach having super bowl experience than the guys who are actually playing the game. This is a huge data point to miss. Ryan doesn't have a track record of excelling under pressure. Quite the opposite. Neither does most of the Falcons as a team. Someone reported on ESPN that the Falcons only have 2 or 3 players who have ever been to the super bowl. Brady has more experience on his own (6 super bowls) than the entire falcons roster (5 super bowls). Matt Ryan has made two starts against the Pats and he lost both of those games. Back to Dan Quinn, this is his first game head-to-head against Belichick as a head coach. Not good. It will be a huge test for him. So not only is it Dan Quinn's first go at Belichick in the post season, but he's the guy who has all the experience in the super bowl and he doesn't even get to touch the ball. If I had to take a shot at it and guessing high, the head coach will make 33% of the impact on this game while the players have the other 66%. The bottom line is that it's up to the players to execute the game plan that the coach put out. Every head coach including Belichick will tell any half ass reporter that ultimately it's the players who decide the game and I strongly believe that it's mostly the players who will decide this game. Coaches definitely matter, sure, but not nearly as much as the players do.
If the Falcons pull the upset, I think they will not only have to have one of the best offensive games in franchise history, but they will also have to have that young and improving defense step up to the plate and keep Brady down the entire game. On top of those two big points, Matt Ryan has to prove something to everyone in the post season, and so far he doesn't have a great track record in big games. I think the Falcons can do it, but I think everything has to go right for them to win.
The books setting the spread at 3 is calling for this to be a close game and I couldn't agree more. I think this game will be one of the better games in superbowl history. I have no idea who is going to win the game, lean pats. Cheers to a great season!
thanks guys, it was fun
as for today, I'm just making an average play, maybe a little more, certainly don't need to pound it
