That's the reason that I appreciated what Big B****E posted on this site in the past. Because the only true way you can know what is being bet is by actually taking bets. The public $ %'s we see on the net are bullshit. Last year was a very odd year in which the public did well, thus prompting the above poster to shut down shop. I wish I had his info still. I guarantee you he's killing it this year, if he's still taking bets.
Great question and appreciate the postive sentiment. It's been a tough weekend. I was good in college the first two weeks but ended the 2nd week with a horrible beat on the Utah -SJ ST game late night. Yesterday and today were both disasters. I still have some confidence with college but I'm ready to completely pack it in and stop playing the NFL again.... Same damn thing happened last year. Let's just say if Steelers kicker Jeff Reed was on the side of the road changing a tire -- someone's gonna have to stop me from swerving towards him....
I think non conference is getting tougher because everyone knows about the good teams from the small conferences now cause they're on tv too. Oddsmakers and Gamblers respect the Boise's, Fresno's, Utahs, and BYU's even if the media and the BCS don't. The value on the lines for those types of teams doesn't seem to be there anymore. Look at the first game Boise was favored at home against a good BCS school Oregon. That wouldn't have happened 5 years ago I don't think. I've been trying to play decent (my perception of decent anyway) dogs from MAC (Central Mich and Northern Illinois - I've hit with). Tried it with C-USA as well and have lost a bunch though. (East Carolina, UAB). I've also been trying to fade the realy bad teams in those conferences. Done pretty good with that strategy.
Truer words haven't been spoken...I mean think about it its their JOB to get it right and factor all these things in ...for most of us this is a really big time consuming hobby not a full time job
Fading the public works on certain games better than others (the big games with the big name teams like USC, FL, Texas, etc)...but not on every game
I would say the only thing is we might be betting too many games...Vegas doesn't make mistakes often...and if they do its not gonna be on 5-7 games...but most likely 2-3 games that we need to pounce on
I don't know if we're getting dumber or if Vegas is getting smarter lol but it does seem harder this year
Very simply, the spread offense has changed everything. If you have a QB and some receivers you are capable of scoring on any given play. Too hard to defend perfectly everytime. Beat downs are more rare than ever and big dogs are winning out right. Don't give Vegas more credit than they deserve. When Houston beat OSU outright getting 15- how smart was Vegas on that one. Handicapping has always been difficult. When OU and Nebraska started running the option with quality athletes the same thing happened. The spread is harder to contain than the option IF you have a QB. People run wide open all day long in the spread. You do not have to be a super star to hit those guys. OU's backup threw 6 TD's LW with Bradford on the sidelines watching. Tebow looks pretty ordainary without Harvin and Murphy. McCoy was the second best QB in LW's game against TTech and that was only Pott's 3rd start. Look at Georgia and Arkansas. Georgia looked bad against Okie St but finally found their rythem. Again, the spread offense. Look at Cinn, Fl St, Mia Fl, all these teams have quality QB's and skilled receivers running in quick scoring schemes that put them in a position to be successful more times than not. All Vegas has to do is set a line, any line. As long as shit happens they will succeed. USC fell this week, OU on week one, no team is safe anymore and I see Florida taking a hit before long also. The game of college football has evolved and handicappers have to evolve along with it. I had Auburn LW, it was a freakin miracle that they won ATS. How smart was I for picking that game. How dumb was the guy who had WV?
Right now Vegas is looking good and they are preying on the general public because we are going to bet regardless. It is like picking the winner in a bullfight, no matter how hard the full fights his fate is sealed when it steps foot in the ring. Right now we are the bulls. BOL.
Right now Vegas is looking good and they are preying on the general public because we are going to bet regardless. It is like picking the winner in a bullfight, no matter how hard the full fights his fate is sealed when it steps foot in the ring. Right now we are the bulls. BOL.
The Ok St game closed 16.5 and 17. The ticket writers did well. The last thing the books want is for the outcome of any game to land near the #. This is when ALL teasers and middles put a dent into the bottom line. Super Bowl III(Jets-Balt) opened 17 and closed around 20. People say that was the worst line ever. Really! The bookmakers made a killing. Finally, Las Vegas has ZERO to do with the betting climate. They are followers, period. The Stardust days and Roxy and Mr. Martin are over.
Because the only information everyone has on teams is what they read about them in the media all offseason. You can't read that stuff. They have no handicapping fundamentals to go by, they just think whatever the TV and newspapers tell them to think the best teams are.
The other thing is never look at the rankings. I honestly just know that Florida is 1 and Texas is 2, and that's all I know about who is ranked where.
The other thing is never look at the rankings. I honestly just know that Florida is 1 and Texas is 2, and that's all I know about who is ranked where.
It's been tough for me to read the teams early. Each week, you don't know what team is going to show up. You just don't know at this point which team is going to show up each week.
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<br/>The lines have been tough and they are VERY tough this week. I set my own lines every week (on what I think it should be) and every game is within 1-3 points of the actual line.
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<br/>The lines have been tough and they are VERY tough this week. I set my own lines every week (on what I think it should be) and every game is within 1-3 points of the actual line.
Granted but my point is mainly about the spread offense and how hard it is to contain it. Right now more games are missing by a mile. Sure they don't want them too close but I am not willilng to concede that they are much better than some of us when it comes to point differentials. Do you think they factored in Bradford getting hurt? Teasers are another animal entirely. I cringe when I hear people saying if the line goes up 1/2 point I am not going to bet it. I have never bought a point in my entire life. You are dead on about the betting climate. I could tell the way people were foaming at the mouth 3 weeks before the season started that it was a pre frenzy. Now a lot of people are down and disoriented. People were preaching Texas all LW and I had Texas Tech at +16 1/2 thinking it would go down. The best thing about a forum is that you can see where the general thought processes are focused and right now you can benefit by going the other way. LW Louilsville, Tenn, Texas Tech, Washington, on and on. I just think too many people blame Vegas instead of themselves.
Most player do not have enough confidence to play 5 games for 500.00. Easier in their minds to play 25 games for 100.00 and hope for the best which is why most lose. It is hard enough to pick 5-7 winners but picking 12-15 winners is impossible if you want to be consistent.
Pick 3 games and believe in yourself to win. If you like more then scale your amount back. If you look at some of the quiet good cappers like coach Lt and bellyputter and few more they play a couple of games and will win over the season.
its the same for me, so dont know, gambling is tuff at times. Just like poker, no matter how good you are, sometimes you have to eat ramen noodles for dinner.
also, lol jblonghorn, tout the longhorns in blowout all week then come in on monday and say"I called bookie and changed play last minute, I didnt loose my ass guys"
Im not one to bash, but a spades a spade
also, lol jblonghorn, tout the longhorns in blowout all week then come in on monday and say"I called bookie and changed play last minute, I didnt loose my ass guys"
Im not one to bash, but a spades a spade
I know. I really do find it comical people sitting there "crunching numbers" or trying to figure out match-ups player vs player, offense vs. defense, etc. "I guess I'll play against South Florida this week". The fuck? You dont think EVERYONE is using this information including the people that makes lines? Comical. Really.
Thats why Ole Miss is favored by 3.5 this Thursday then they will go down to South Carolina and lose or win by a FG. Factor in all the stats, matchups and everything and your average joe handicapper sees that Miss should be a larger favorite. I'll be on SC thursday, there's a posted play for you number crunchers out there
