I worked in vegas for almost twenty years and I had the privlege to work with some of the greatest bookmakers in the buisness.The only reason they don"t make money now is because the bean counters have taken over and they dont like to ever lose they don't understand that happens sometimes. Any bookmaker who cant make money has no buisness saying there a bookmaker.
You are missing the big picture. In this life REAL money is made by skimming a little off the top from a large group of people, not taking as much as you can from a small group of people. If you want to make your six figures here and there, go ahead and eschew booking to play. If you want to be truly rich like the big boys from the U.K., you book because you are taking money from a larger base of people. Basic business principles.
Interesting discussion.
I think that it doesn't really matter on what side of the fence you are, as long as you know what you are doing. Being a bookie or a player has more to do with the character of the person in question. If you're a sharp booker, then become a bookie; if you're a sharp shopper, then be a player. The different between success and bancruptcy lays on the money management, for players as well as for bookies.
I see so many misconceptions in this thread, that I wouldn't really want to start pointing them out. But I must say this, not every bookie out there loves to get drung and whore around 8 days a week. There are many bookies that are business men and for these guys, booking is merely a revenue generator. Every smart business man will understand the importance of diversification, let it be a book or real estate; it all boils down to the one thing: be a service provider, not a consumist fool. And if you provide a service, make sure you're damn good at what you do.
But having said this, what many people in this thread are really failing to point out is the real name of the game. And today the name is only one: ARBITRAGING.
Using Sick Gambler's and docdeckay's examples, Spiros and Pinny and the way they bet, we must be aware that we are talking a bout two different forms of betting:
Spiros run his numbers in a way, that he will be able to get down on those same numbers @ other shops, BEFORE he starts writing his own action @ the right number. He enjoys of the benefit of being followed blindly.
Pinny has a sharp opinion. And not only their opinion is sharp, they allure customers by manipulating the juice. The ULTIMATE form of money management. These guys will drive a player into a hard number by offering you a sweet takeback, that's why very few people make money off of them. Unless of course, you learn to read their lines and then you nail other books laying off their opinion. It seems to work for many, right doc?
It's not a mattef if you're a book or a player, it's a matter of knowing your numbers.
I think that it doesn't really matter on what side of the fence you are, as long as you know what you are doing. Being a bookie or a player has more to do with the character of the person in question. If you're a sharp booker, then become a bookie; if you're a sharp shopper, then be a player. The different between success and bancruptcy lays on the money management, for players as well as for bookies.
I see so many misconceptions in this thread, that I wouldn't really want to start pointing them out. But I must say this, not every bookie out there loves to get drung and whore around 8 days a week. There are many bookies that are business men and for these guys, booking is merely a revenue generator. Every smart business man will understand the importance of diversification, let it be a book or real estate; it all boils down to the one thing: be a service provider, not a consumist fool. And if you provide a service, make sure you're damn good at what you do.
But having said this, what many people in this thread are really failing to point out is the real name of the game. And today the name is only one: ARBITRAGING.
Using Sick Gambler's and docdeckay's examples, Spiros and Pinny and the way they bet, we must be aware that we are talking a bout two different forms of betting:
Spiros run his numbers in a way, that he will be able to get down on those same numbers @ other shops, BEFORE he starts writing his own action @ the right number. He enjoys of the benefit of being followed blindly.
Pinny has a sharp opinion. And not only their opinion is sharp, they allure customers by manipulating the juice. The ULTIMATE form of money management. These guys will drive a player into a hard number by offering you a sweet takeback, that's why very few people make money off of them. Unless of course, you learn to read their lines and then you nail other books laying off their opinion. It seems to work for many, right doc?
It's not a mattef if you're a book or a player, it's a matter of knowing your numbers.
Before I forget: the sooner you understand the importance of arbitraging, the sooner you will be playing at Betfair and sports exchanges. Unless of course, you don't have the balls to run your own numbers, in wich case you're not really sharp, you're just a wise shopper.
But in this flawed American business model, you need liability absorbers. Guys that will simply broker the action. As Judge Wapner said:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>The only sharp books are the ones that don't bet.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Shit. Gotta love this guy, so much wisdom, put so simple, that everybody seesm to not get it.
Let me ask you guys:
Have you guys thought why there are books that are booking bookies? 'Cause they are the real sharp guys. Name of these books (just to name them, not to shill):
CRIS
Grande
Hollywood
And Cascade in MLB and growing.
Any opinions?
But in this flawed American business model, you need liability absorbers. Guys that will simply broker the action. As Judge Wapner said:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>The only sharp books are the ones that don't bet.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Shit. Gotta love this guy, so much wisdom, put so simple, that everybody seesm to not get it.
Let me ask you guys:
Have you guys thought why there are books that are booking bookies? 'Cause they are the real sharp guys. Name of these books (just to name them, not to shill):
CRIS
Grande
Hollywood
And Cascade in MLB and growing.
Any opinions?
Good posts, You mention the right number, by that, do you mean the consensus number on Don Best? Or the actual on the field or floor difference between two teams? I think you know they are not always the same number. imo. the trick is to figure out what the real playing field number is and then using IT to give you the side that is most likely to get the money. Naturally this, as I've said before, is easier said than done. The topic "Why do bookies open up offshore when they can just bet"? is most easily answered by just looking at the models you have mentioned in your posts, CRIS, Grande, Pinnacle, etc. The other side of the coin, "betting for a living", really comes down to what most of the businesses that require intelligence to succeed require. That is the intelligence to grasp what it takes to be on the right side win or lose. I know that sounds kind of dumb, but you can really bet the right side and still lose a bet from time to time. Arbitraging, is another issue, and really has no interest for me.
wil.
wil.
Hey Wil, what's up:
You posted:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>You mention the right number, by that, do you mean the consensus number on Don Best? Or the actual on the field or floor difference between two teams? I think you know they are not always the same number.imo. the trick is to figure out what the real playing field number is and then using IT to give you the side that is most likely to get the money. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Regarding the "right number", I agree with you 100%. There are numbers that are product of the arbitraging process by different books as well as DB itself (I know you don't want to discuss that) and there are numbers that are the result of a research process, an opinion on the game and various other factors. Which one is the right one?
I think the real right number is the one that allows you to beat the proposed line for any given sports event. There are players that love to study a game and through different forms of study, they come up with what they think the line should be. Once they have made their own lines, they proceed to look for the number that will give them the bigger edge, the bigger benefit. Players like you. These type of players are originators, most definitely. There are guys with mad skills (congratulations on the MNF juicy takeback, BTW...
) and there are guys that love to talk a lot of smack, but that do not profit from sports betting.
The guys that originate a line of their own, bet and win, those guys have the "right numbers". A right number is the one that allows you to profit on a opinion, IMO.
The Don Best consensus is far from the "right number" and closer to a "safety number". As you say my man, too extense to try to explain it here. Although, there are sharp guys that profit from differentials in the DB screen.
You posted:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>You mention the right number, by that, do you mean the consensus number on Don Best? Or the actual on the field or floor difference between two teams? I think you know they are not always the same number.imo. the trick is to figure out what the real playing field number is and then using IT to give you the side that is most likely to get the money. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Regarding the "right number", I agree with you 100%. There are numbers that are product of the arbitraging process by different books as well as DB itself (I know you don't want to discuss that) and there are numbers that are the result of a research process, an opinion on the game and various other factors. Which one is the right one?
I think the real right number is the one that allows you to beat the proposed line for any given sports event. There are players that love to study a game and through different forms of study, they come up with what they think the line should be. Once they have made their own lines, they proceed to look for the number that will give them the bigger edge, the bigger benefit. Players like you. These type of players are originators, most definitely. There are guys with mad skills (congratulations on the MNF juicy takeback, BTW...
The guys that originate a line of their own, bet and win, those guys have the "right numbers". A right number is the one that allows you to profit on a opinion, IMO.
The Don Best consensus is far from the "right number" and closer to a "safety number". As you say my man, too extense to try to explain it here. Although, there are sharp guys that profit from differentials in the DB screen.
Firstly as a bookie you're getting +110 on every game whereas as a bettor, you're getting -110. There's a very big difference between those two numbers. Sure, you can sometimes get an extra half point or point that might shade the game in your favour. However, that will happen only once in awhile. As a bookie, you're getting +110 on every single game.
As to a bettor getting the same volume as a bookie, you must be kidding. You think anyone single bettor can match the volume that Olympic does in a night? You think any single bettor can match in a year what William Hill do in a week?
I'll admit though that being a bookie isn't as lucrative as some would make out. From what I can tell, Betworks barely cracked six figures profit for the year. Canbet made 500 dimes which is quite disappointing for an operation of that magnitude.
As to a bettor getting the same volume as a bookie, you must be kidding. You think anyone single bettor can match the volume that Olympic does in a night? You think any single bettor can match in a year what William Hill do in a week?
I'll admit though that being a bookie isn't as lucrative as some would make out. From what I can tell, Betworks barely cracked six figures profit for the year. Canbet made 500 dimes which is quite disappointing for an operation of that magnitude.
Sick,
Lots of good comments here but I like Nick Douglas' best -- succinct, to the point, and 100% correct IMO.
I have been there in the world of big business (not bookmaking but the idea is the same) and that's where the serious money is. I have no doubt in my mind that I personally would make way more money as a bookie than a player. Why?
1. Access to funds via loans and investors (how many people will invest in a single gambler vs. a de facto business--think about it)
2. Economies of scale from lots of people working together. It's easier to hire if you're running a business than if you are gambling on your own.
3. The vig. OK, if there are 200 games going off there might be 5 soft lines that sharps will pick off but as the bookie you've got "sharp" action on the other 195. I'd rather have 195 good bets and 5 bad ones than 5 good bets and no bad ones.
4. The sheer scale you could attain. In bookmaking, the sky is literally the limit since the top shop could be booking 20% of the whole world market someday. Compare just 0.1% of that turnover to the money you could make on your own under your most optimistic scenario. There is no comparison.
So the money is clearly better in bookmaking vs. gambling for a true sharp -- ie. someone sharp in both betting and business. Of course the effort required for bookmaking is also greater and the freedom is a lot less, so for me it's an easy decision -- I'm happy to be just a player. But for some folks the extra potential $$$ is worth the effort and loss of freedom.
You could even ask the same question for people who are successful in ANY business because a good number of them would make sharp bettors if they put some time into it.
Going even further you could ask: Why isn't everyone in the world just like me!? For that answer you need to ask someone who ranks higher than us mere mortals.
Lots of good comments here but I like Nick Douglas' best -- succinct, to the point, and 100% correct IMO.
I have been there in the world of big business (not bookmaking but the idea is the same) and that's where the serious money is. I have no doubt in my mind that I personally would make way more money as a bookie than a player. Why?
1. Access to funds via loans and investors (how many people will invest in a single gambler vs. a de facto business--think about it)
2. Economies of scale from lots of people working together. It's easier to hire if you're running a business than if you are gambling on your own.
3. The vig. OK, if there are 200 games going off there might be 5 soft lines that sharps will pick off but as the bookie you've got "sharp" action on the other 195. I'd rather have 195 good bets and 5 bad ones than 5 good bets and no bad ones.
4. The sheer scale you could attain. In bookmaking, the sky is literally the limit since the top shop could be booking 20% of the whole world market someday. Compare just 0.1% of that turnover to the money you could make on your own under your most optimistic scenario. There is no comparison.
So the money is clearly better in bookmaking vs. gambling for a true sharp -- ie. someone sharp in both betting and business. Of course the effort required for bookmaking is also greater and the freedom is a lot less, so for me it's an easy decision -- I'm happy to be just a player. But for some folks the extra potential $$$ is worth the effort and loss of freedom.
You could even ask the same question for people who are successful in ANY business because a good number of them would make sharp bettors if they put some time into it.
Going even further you could ask: Why isn't everyone in the world just like me!? For that answer you need to ask someone who ranks higher than us mere mortals.
I see one fallacy you keep pointing out, Sick.
If you manage to find a place to lay Lakers -4.5 when the line everywhere else is 5.5...you are not now the bookie and making postive juice.
You are still laying -110, all you have done is neutralize the number of 5.5 to your advantage.
And just because a book may move to an off number does not mean they are the bettor. Sometimes you have to move to balance your books. This helps out the smart shopper and the book, but hardly means the book is betting or has an opinion (in every case).
That said, I agree with you. If you are smart, disciplined, and willing to put in the hours, you can make decent money. Whereas a bm can hire a bunch of illiterate people to sit in front of a screen, or even just to put numbers on a website, and if he is not giving away the store to bonuswhores, he will rake in the money without having to do the hard work or the hours.
If you manage to find a place to lay Lakers -4.5 when the line everywhere else is 5.5...you are not now the bookie and making postive juice.
You are still laying -110, all you have done is neutralize the number of 5.5 to your advantage.
And just because a book may move to an off number does not mean they are the bettor. Sometimes you have to move to balance your books. This helps out the smart shopper and the book, but hardly means the book is betting or has an opinion (in every case).
That said, I agree with you. If you are smart, disciplined, and willing to put in the hours, you can make decent money. Whereas a bm can hire a bunch of illiterate people to sit in front of a screen, or even just to put numbers on a website, and if he is not giving away the store to bonuswhores, he will rake in the money without having to do the hard work or the hours.
No need for all the loooong talk,
There is NO WAY that a Bookie would do more or better than a book, NO WAY, (not if the book is run right).
Its a win,win,win situation for the book.
You put all the proper things in place and you're sure to be rolling in dough.
Get an office, good customer service, knowledgeable staff, good manuevable site, or good phone system, a good money processing system, (deposits and withdrawals) and coe on now, you're good to go, Kaching
There is NO WAY that a Bookie would do more or better than a book, NO WAY, (not if the book is run right).
Its a win,win,win situation for the book.
You put all the proper things in place and you're sure to be rolling in dough.
Get an office, good customer service, knowledgeable staff, good manuevable site, or good phone system, a good money processing system, (deposits and withdrawals) and coe on now, you're good to go, Kaching
#1. Axcess to funds, is probably the key factor. With a bankroll of say 100K, what choice do you have? None. Without a large initial bankroll, and/or axcess to serious investor funding, opening a sports book is impossible. As far as effort required for success, bookmaking is not much different than any other business, it takes lots of effort and very hard work to do well. The real issue is the transformation of bookmaking over the last 10 years. The advent of on-line post-up bookies has changed a lot of the old advatages your average local bookmaker enjoyed. The information available to smart bettors is also a factor, 20 years ago you had newspapers and The Gold Sheet, today we have a cyber-space filled with almost every angle and factoid for the most obscure college basketball game on the board. Bottom line bookmakeing is not as easy as it used to be. That said, it is still a moneymaking enterprise for the astute bookie who knows how to take advantage of the almighty 11 to 10 cent VIG.
wil.
wil.
