Why do bookies open up offshore when they can just bet?

docdekay · Nov 12, 2003

Sick
You are dead on with every single comment you made except for one. That theoretical hold of 4.55% you keep referring to is a myth. No shop garners equal $ on both sides. Never, ever, ever.

When a sharper shop like pinny shades a number by a half a point of a key # (most recently miami ohio -7.5 bowling green last wk when the rest of the world is stuck on 7) they are now the bettor and not the BM.

I'm on your sidem though. I'd much rather look for the rogue number in an efficient marketplace and control how much I want to wager.

And 5teamparlay, by just reading your handle, you clearly have no fu(king clue what you're talking about LOL.

sickgambler · Nov 12, 2003

Wil,

If you don't think that there is more money in it for bookmakers to gamble than there is to book, then you don't know what you are talking about. I am willing to put cash up front on the table and let Kenny hold it that if you asked 10 very sharp bettors, and asked them if there is more money in bookmaking, or gambling, they will laugh their asses off and tell you while trying to keep a straight face that betting is way way way more profitable than bookmaking..

yeah, like when a sharp bettor has the Lakers -11, and the line is Lakers -13, OR have Lakers over 192 and the line is now 197. Who do you think is making more money here, the bettor or the bookmaker who is making 4.5%, meanwhile, the bettor here is ONLY making about 14% on the dollar with the Lakers and about 23% profit on the total off by 5 points.

I know a lot of ex bookies in this city who would never go back to being a bookie because they are very happy betting with some locals.

-Slim- · Nov 12, 2003

Ok, its difficult to refute the fact that someone THAT sharp can make money. That is true but not that many and believe me, not that many people are that sharp. In fact you could probably count them all with your ten fingers and even then be one or two fingers short.

Having said this, gambling is set on rules and odds that are nearly impossible to break. I know many here will claim to make a living off of betting but we all know whats behind the claims. One by one, all of our heroes around here have fallen from grace, to disgrace, literally. These rules and odds are difficult to overcome even when one is sharp. Of course, competition has created a monster of late with these bonuses, rebates, etc etc that have distorted reality and have taken the edge out of the situation for many bookies.

If books kept to booking and not giving away money to lure customers, giving out free shirts, cups, mugs, calendars, cards etc etc they're almost guaranteed to succeed. Of course you still have to have common sense, deep pockets, good leadership, integrity, etc etc to succeed but the chance of failure is greatly minimized. This is why so many books have such a hard time nowadays, which perhaps is one of the reasons that gave birth to this thread. Why book when you can bet...?

wilheim · Nov 12, 2003

Take the top ten offshore books (consensus.) Now put all their players names in a hat and draw out 1000 names. Now tell me how many or what % of the 1000 are winners at the end of the year.

wil.

sickgambler · Nov 12, 2003

Doctor Decay,

You seem to be an intelligent kid. Of course I am right. You control your own betting pattern. You get 1 point off, you only bet 500. You find 2 points off, you now bet 2000 a game. You find 0 pts off, you lay off, it's that simple. You can end up with 16 bets in one night, or you can end up with 2 bets that night. But no matter what, you will clear about 7% on your return, minimum.

Now I know that most books don't make 4.5%. You've got your books who only charge 5%, so right there your 4.5% is cut to 2.25% profit. Then you have your fees of deposits that they swallow, which cuts into their profit margin. I am not even including any of that. If a sharp guy wants, he can put in 60 bets a week with a book all at a profitable return.

There is much more money in betting for the sharp player/bookie than there is for the bookmaker. You can ask any smart guy and he will tell you.

IntuitionBET · Nov 12, 2003

wilheim - Thanks for putting this in perspective for these guys. But please don't tell them too much as everyone will want/think they can be a bookie from their basement.

Yes there is more money to be made as a bookie but if you don't know what you are doing and are not disciplined and if you don't attract dreamers to bet on the gravy it could be the opposite.

But of course this is just my opinion

sickgambler · Nov 12, 2003

wilfred,

Bottom line is, lets wait to see what Kenny boy says. He is a gambler. I am willing to lay odds that if Kenny the shrink says the truth, he will side with me. And I swear, I have never brought this up with him, so I don't know his answer. I know Spiro would never tell us and even though he has a successful book, I am willing to bet that he would say that betting is more profitable because you have full control of your bets and how much you want to bet on each game. I wish some players would come in here and give us their opinions. You'll see that I am only speaking the truth.

SLIM,

I agree with you, and that is why i say books are not as profitable. The bonuses, the steam chasers, the tremendous rebates, the shirts the mugs, the free half points, the fees, the license, the rent, the employess and so on. If a book can book with no fees anywhere, like a local does, and not pay people to play with them and have those fees, then it's a whole new ballgame.. But with all that for the player to choose from with the reduced vig and bonuses and all, how can the player not have the advantage here? Sharp bookies should be betting and close shop. Start betting big volume and leave that headache offshore and come back home to the 2nd greatest country in the world, USA..

5teamparlay · Nov 12, 2003

MY POINT WAS: why would a bookie want to gamble?????

#1. HE IS GOING TO WIN 1100 on a certain game.

#2 to win the same 1100 (GAMBLING) he has to risk 1210 now compared to 1000 thats a whopping 210 dollar differance to win the same amount.

WHY GAMBLE???? YOU ARE GETTING JUICE, not giving it, so your getting hit from both ways. It was from +4.5 to 0 to -4.5. That's more than 4.5. You are getting these odds as a bookie day in day out year after year after year.

docdekay · Nov 12, 2003

Sicko
Exactly. If you can asess your edge off the market place you bet accordingly. I swear on my mothers life I know nothing about hockey. Nothing. Do I wager on it? Of course I do. When I'm able to play calgary +135 when pinny has them +112 I dont need to know shit.

When I first started scalping I thought it was the greatest thing since sliced bread. Then I started looking at my logs and realized that if I didnt scalp and played the off number naked I would have made 8x as much. I learned and I learned quick.

Now the books I play at may leave much to be desired, but I dont need to pore over statistics all day like the handicappers. If the number is scalpable with the sharp shops, its a blind play.

If you believe the market place is efficient then blind bet to your hearts content.

5teamparlay · Nov 12, 2003

QUOTE BY SICK GAMBLER

I posted November 12, 2003 08:40 PM
wilfred,

agree with you, and that is why i say books are not as profitable. The bonuses, the steam chasers, the tremendous rebates, the shirts the mugs, the free half points, the fees, the license, the rent, the employess and so on. If a book can book with no fees anywhere, like a local does, and not pay people to play with them and have those fees, then it's a whole new ballgame..

---------------

VEGAS HAS BEEN DOING THIS FOR YEARS frree hats, mugs, BEER, WOMEN, ROOMS, FLIGHTS, ETC

let's see how are they doing???

better than ever. Better than if they didn't give the free room.

NICKYTHEFISH · Nov 12, 2003

Vegas has slots and poker machines.

Thats why that stuff is free not because of the books.

sickgambler · Nov 12, 2003

Doctor,

Keep doing what you're doing kiddo, and you will be retired, living like a champ very soon, mark my words. handicapping, schmandicapping. It don't exist. The only way it exists is ONLY if you like that team a lot and then find yourself the 1 point off that number. You don't find it anywhere, you don't play it. You don't have to know anything about sports to make money in it. And I swear on my mother, who is upstairs now making my dinner

(god bless her) that I couldn't name you one player in college basketball, or college football. And I do well in those sports. Betting is all about numbers, not who is good and who is not. That's what it all boils down to. The more you know in sports, the less successful you are, trust me on this one.

5 team parlay,

that 210 you are talking about as extra money for the bookie gets all cancelled out kiddo when you grab that point in the NBA. So if Lakers are -6.5, and you find a Lakers -5.5, you are now making the 11/10 and are making now the 4.5%.. That's the key to betting. If you don't get that at least 1 point on an NBA side, you lay off it. That is the beauty of betting.

Fishhead · Nov 12, 2003

Worked in Vegas BOOK for 9 years.......the book BARELY BARELY made enough money to cover expenses. They great advantage was the sportsbook itself drawing people to the casino to play OTHER games of chance that had a built in HUGE house advantage. Wtih all the expenses, bookmaking for the mom and pop outfits offshore is real real real tough and the money could be used much more wisely in the hands of a professional gambler. THIS IS A CLEAR AND CUT CASE!

-Slim- · Nov 12, 2003

sick, yes, I cannot even begin to envision how much money is spent on complete bull shit and how much if it actually comes back in, in the form of deposits. Old fashioned booking with deep pockets and integrity is the way to go.

It might not lure as many people but you know those that are with you will not go anywhere. In the end, all a real bettor wants is to be paid and in a way, to be treated at least semi decently.

If you win, I pay you, if you lose you pay me, but you sure as hell aint gonna get a tshirt or a free calendar or a bobble head doll of Bill Parcells from my ass.

wilheim · Nov 12, 2003

The big problem with your theory is you are making it sound like its a sure thing to set up shop in your den or basemeent, and start scalping, and making money. You are giving way to much credit to the average bookie and bettor. So many things must happen to have success. They have all been mentioned in hundreds of threads over the years here at The Rx. The main problem is that adhering to the basic principles of earning money by betting on sporting events is much easier said than done. I've been on both sides of the fence, and will admit I would much rather match wits and gamble than make book and grind out a living. My point is that the average man on the street has close to no chance to beat the game in the long run, making all the bullschit bookies have to go through, well worth every bit of it. Most bigshot bookies I know could'nt pick a winner with tommorow's paper. Give them 2000 guys laying 11 to 10 and they get rich. Go figure.

wil.

-Slim- · Nov 12, 2003

And by the way, Vegas and offshore sportsbook are two completely different animals. Any and all opinions I express refer to offshore sportsbooks.

Fishhead · Nov 12, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
The big problem with your theory is you are making it sound like its a sure thing to set up shop in your den or basemeent, and start scalping, and making money. You are giving way to much credit to the average bookie and bettor. So many things must happen to have success. They have all been mentioned in hundreds of threads over the years here at The Rx. The main problem is that adhering to the basic principles of earning money by betting on sporting events is much easier said than done. I've been on both sides of the fence, and will admit I would much rather match wits and gamble than make book and grind out a living. My point is that the average man on the street has close to no chance to beat the game in the long run, making all the bullschit bookies have to go through, well worth every bit of it. Most bigshot bookies I know could'nt pick a winner with tommorow's paper. Give them 2000 guys laying 11 to 10 and they get rich. Go figure.

wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

That was exactly what Sick was saying.

Fishhead · Nov 12, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by -SLIM-:
And by the way, Vegas and offshore sportsbook are two completely different animals. Any and all opinions I express refer to offshore sportsbooks.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

ok....lol.

-Slim- · Nov 12, 2003

And to be honest, sick I think your view of making money by betting off numbers, using bonuses to your advantage, etc etc is distorted by the fact that you've been able to get away with stuff that probably would have gotten you killed 60 years ago. And no, I dont mean to be rude....

sickgambler · Nov 12, 2003

fishhead, you tell him kid. And don't forget, casinos main clientele are squares on vacation with no line service or no one chasing steam or anything, and you still had a hard time showing a profit. Imagine that..

SLIM,

Some books make me laugh. They offer you 30% cash bonus, winnings allowed to be withdrawn, 3 time rollover, and reduced juice. Now you explain to me, how the hell is a book like that going to make money? And they wanted to send me a golf shirt too and a free pager with 6 months service.

I am really starting to think that fishhead's list of 10 reasons why there are bookies offshore is because they want to get away and live the life and say to all their family and friends that they have a job. This is sickening.