Why Books win more then they lose

[prodigy]

Bigbookie.

Now we are FADING the heavy taxed team right? Or playing on them? I ask because I'm a bit confused with your LSU/Florida example.

Maybe another explaination on how to play the tax will help.

you dont 'fade' anything. it's not a way of making bets.
it's a mindset of recognizing when you are betting into a number that is a little skewed because of overperforming or underperforming teams.
... and that doesnt happen over the course of one week. so it has nothing to do with 'oh the public remembers what so and so did LAST week'. its not as cut and dry as its made out to be. you just have to see a lot of games, situations, and teams and understand the stock market-esque quality of gambling

 

[Sportsrmylife]

you dont 'fade' anything. it's not a way of making bets.
it's a mindset of recognizing when you are betting into a number that is a little skewed because of overperforming or underperforming teams.
... and that doesnt happen over the course of one week. so it has nothing to do with 'oh the public remembers what so and so did LAST week'. its not as cut and dry as its made out to be. you just have to see a lot of games, situations, and teams and understand the stock market-esque quality of gambling

actually I think that if you are playing for the long run "fading" these heavy tax games are going to make you a ton of money. i think that 'oh the public remembers what so and so did LAST week' critical when see how the line was set and where the public is going to take the line.

EX. Indy CRUSHED the jags last week. GB has lost to Atlanta at home and Rodger is playing hurt. Now the public sees that Indy ONLY has to win at GB? That's where they are going to put their money.

EX. SD CRUSHED Ne on sunday night football. Buffalo last time out got worked over by Arizona. SD ONLY has to win at buffalo? They are going to hammer SD!

I think that using this when capping games puts you on the correct side of things. You could almost call yourself the book without the juice. LOL.

 

[QuittingWork]

bigbookie....on a side note are you able to shed any light on the method by which the lines are set in the first place....is it a bunch of guys in vegas sitting in a back room puffing stogies?....is it computer aided?....are the opening lines tested on some kind of focus group?.....this seems to be one of the larger mysteries of modern times.

I'm sure bigbookie has an answer that is as good or better than mine, but I will respond as well.

Every sportsbook in vegas is a customer of one company(lv sports consultants, I believe) who writes the line.

An initial "flat" line is written by a computer program. After which, small tweaks are made to that number, i.e. Homefield advantage, injuries, public perception...

After the adjustments, they settle on a price--these are the "send out" numbers.

At this point, each out decides whether or not to hang that number, as they have their own handicappers who weigh in--though those in-house experts don't do anything significant to the send-out(+/- .5) .

From there, professionals take the first crack at the games sunday night and monday, which helps the books identify weak numbers; the weak numbers are adjusted accordingly.

 

[prodigy]

actually I think that if you are playing for the long run "fading" these heavy tax games are going to make you a ton of money. i think that 'oh the public remembers what so and so did LAST week' critical when see how the line was set and where the public is going to take the line.

EX. Indy CRUSHED the jags last week. GB has lost to Atlanta at home and Rodger is playing hurt. Now the public sees that Indy ONLY has to win at GB? That's where they are going to put their money.

EX. SD CRUSHED Ne on sunday night football. Buffalo last time out got worked over by Arizona. SD ONLY has to win at buffalo? They are going to hammer SD!

I think that using this when capping games puts you on the correct side of things. You could almost call yourself the book without the juice. LOL.

its not about fading anything. its not a week to week thing. its not about individual games. it has nothing to do with outcomes. it has to do with recognizing when teams are 'priced out'.

there are no shortcuts in this game. the people who try to be anti-public with a one week sample are just as square as the people they think theyre betting against.

gl

 

[candylicker]

HEY BB SAME THING HAPPENED THIS YEAR WITH iOWA AND iOWA ST THIS YEAR NOT SURE IF IT WAS EXACTLY THE SAME , BUT KICKER RAN OUT OF THE ENDZONE UP 14 WITH 30 SOME SECS LEFT I THINK, MOST PEOPLE HAD THE LINE AT 13.5. SUM STRANGE SHIT

 

[Sportsrmylife]

bigbookie....on a side note are you able to shed any light on the method by which the lines are set in the first place....is it a bunch of guys in vegas sitting in a back room puffing stogies?....is it computer aided?....are the opening lines tested on some kind of focus group?.....this seems to be one of the larger mysteries of modern times.

From what I have read about Ken White (head of the LVSC) and heard him speak about is that they have about 5 different line setters. They all have numbers, power numbers, for each team and a number for home field advantage and they sit down together and run through the games.

For example: Texas/Ok last week. Ken has his number what the game should be. Each of the guys has their own number. If they are around the same number then they talk about public perception and maybe move the number against what the public is going to bet. Sometimes there will be a game where one guy has -3, another -5 and maybe Ken has -7. They then take some time and talk these games through.

They have a HUGE database of how people bet on teams, what lines have worked, how teams have performed and etc. There really isn't much they haven't thought about when making a line. A perfect example is the way that Bigbookie explained why the Florida/LSU game was -7 instead of -2.

Ken White isn't shy about showing up on radio shows and talking about lines. If you google him I'm sure you will find something out there.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

its not about fading anything. its not a week to week thing. its not about individual games. it has nothing to do with outcomes. it has to do with recognizing when teams are 'priced out'.

there are no shortcuts in this game. the people who try to be anti-public with a one week sample are just as square as the people they think theyre betting against.

gl

prodigy.

I don't want my point to be simply "fading the public". I am talking about finding these taxed games and playing against the taxed side. Nothing to do with the public but better how the line is presented.

I do respect your capping and just think that we are the same side.

 

[bigbookie]

prodigy.

I don't want my point to be simply "fading the public". I am talking about finding these taxed games and playing against the taxed side. Nothing to do with the public but better how the line is presented.

I do respect your capping and just think that we are the same side.

correct-if you play with the books then you are usually paying less tax thus giving you more of an advantage

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Bigbookie

How much of an EXTRA tax to do put on Georgia, Alabama, Florida games? Who is the team you tax the MOST cuz you know the die hards are going to bet them.

Where I'm from Wisconsin bookies can tax a line up to 3 points. These diehards don't care...they want to bet the Badgers.

 

[bigbookie]

Bigbookie

How much of an EXTRA tax to do put on Georgia, Alabama, Florida games? Who is the team you tax the MOST cuz you know the die hards are going to bet them.

Where I'm from Wisconsin bookies can tax a line up to 3 points. These diehards don't care...they want to bet the Badgers.

usually SEC team like LSU florida and alabama because most of my guys are in SEC country. But also teams like Oklahoma USC Ohio St Texas-the public darlings get taxed the most

 

[PUGDOG]

thanks bigbookie

Why"d you wanna go an make me start thinking for. I do fine when I play in a stuper:nohead:Thanks for the info....

 

[bullets]

I'd have to say that Rutgers and Clemson fall into this this week.

I think both these teams win.

 

[billbeater]

The psyche of many gamblers is that they should lose and that it is entertainment. Kinda like the ending of "Two for the money" when the thrill is worth more than the money whatsoever.

Some just don't care if they lose, take a person with ALOT of money, at that point many would want entertainment first and foremost. The same goes for people with cushy pension payments each month, they simply piss away all that money per month and then a new month comes, so no worries about losing. Casinos love these people and give em a damn buffet!

Couple these things with vig, strong lines, buying points, not able to sell points, only one line alot of times, teasers, parlays, only being able to bet on gameday, multiple sport options, chasing, and other emotional factors; its a wonder why schools are not teaching how to book!

Alot of being an illegal book is how much personally you have to lose (wife, children, life) versus how much you want to gain. No doubt the police know who the local books are, its just when to get them or when to take the payoff.

Bookies should still be reminded that there are prisons. Somebody will always be pissed off at you, so treat them nice when and if they pay!

BB, you are a great asset here, and but i still dont know why you would want the exposure.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions, and computers have brought alot of people down.

On a local casino note, I talked firsthand to a waitress at our Niagara Falls Senece Casino, tips for a coctail waitress on a Fri. or Sat. night have dropped from $300 average down to under $40, and you have to declare at least $80 for taxes. The money aint there you damn Senecas, haaa. And now they stopped building their new great idea buffalo casino!

:toast:

 

[dayang23]

under the circumstances it wasnt-it was a two score game and only 3 sec left and they were on the 30 yard line---trust me it was uncalled for completely-the announcers were like why are they doing that the game is over---the iowa was very called for-this one wasnt-my point was if you saw the game you would know what I am talking about-it was definitely a fixed play for the books

Well if it was only 3 secs, then u are right, but hmm...don't remember seeing or hearing about that when a team was up by 9 and did it...o well...

 

[Jetplane]

I saw through that LSU lie lol