Why Books win more then they lose

[bigbookie]

I think this is the game you're talking about BB. I think I was actually at this game and wondered what the fuck WSU was doing haha. Depressing to look back and see how far my Cougs have fallin in such a short period of time!

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=232980265

that is the one-do you remember seeing how fucked up it was that they were taking a safety? Do you remember the line was 7 and the world was on wash st as you can probably tell seeing the #14 team at home only laying 7 to an unranked team

 

[Cougfan]

Yeah, it left alot of people scratching their heads. I didn't bet the game, but I know plenty of people that had Wazzu big that were watching in Martin Stadium. I was in the student section and everyone went NUTS after the safety, booing and shit.

 

[bigbookie]

Yeah, it left alot of people scratching their heads. I didn't bet the game, but I know plenty of people that had Wazzu big that were watching in Martin Stadium. I was in the student section and everyone went NUTS after the safety, booing and shit.

do you feel that safety was asked due to influence covering the spread?

 

[Cougfan]

do you feel that safety was asked due to influence covering the spread?

I hate to say it, but I think there definitely were influences that promoted the safety. At the time the Cougs were actually ranked 5 or 6th, which made the line even more weird. It was too blatant/crazy of a way to end the game. Looking back at the play-by-play makes it look even more shady:

1st and 10 at WSU 41 Derek Anderson (OSU) pass right side intercepted by Jason David (WSU). Returned for no gain.
Washington State at 1:05

0th and Goal at WSU 31 15 yard penalty on Cougars. 28 36
1st and 10 at WSU 16 Jonathan Smith (WSU) rushed up the middle for 3 yards.
2nd and 7 at WSU 19 Beavers timeout; 00:46 remaining 4th quarter
2nd and 7 at WSU 19 Jonathan Smith (WSU) rushed up the middle for -1 yards.
3rd and 8 at WSU 18 Beavers timeout; 00:41 remaining 4th quarter
3rd and 8 at WSU 18 Jonathan Smith (WSU) rushed right side for 2 yards.
4th and 6 at WSU 20 5 yard penalty on Cougars.

4th and 11 at WSU 15 Cougars timeout; 00:03 remaining 4th quarter
4th and 11 at WSU 15 Kyle Basler (WSU) rushed left side for -1 yards; turnover on downs.
Oregon State at 0:03 ORST WSU
4th and Goal at ORST 15 Cougars safety. 30 36
1st and Goal at WSU 0 End of the 4th quarter.
End of the game.

I mean the game was over after the pick, Cougs had the ball with 1:05 left and OSU only had 2 timeouts!

 

[daboyzinblue]

BB I remember that game. It was really bizarre. For some reason I keep picturing the team that took the safety wearing blue & white. I remember the announcers not making a big deal about it either.

 

[dayang23]

funny-there is a huge thread about the NFL being rigged at the same time this is posted. I do believe there are some games that are questionable. Usually the outcomes arent affected rather the point spread. An example may be a referee calling an extra holding call or two to penalize a 20 point favorite up by 17 in the 4th quarter. This would be pretty easy to do and almost undetected. There was a game 2 years ago in College Football where there involved a home team laying exactly 8 points. Everybody and their mother was on the favorite. I think it was close to 90% lopsided if I remember correctly. The favorite was up by 9 points taking a knee on their own 30 yard line. There match figured wrong and there was a 5 second differential between the gameclock-in other words they would have to run 5 sec off the clock. Well on 4th down instead of the QB dropping back and throwing a pass downfield or running around few a few or punting (remember they were up more 2 scores) The QB received the snap and sprinted backwards from the 30 to take a safety. Favorite ended up winning by 7 and won me and other books tons of money. But it was way too weird. I dont know if I am explaining it correctly. But trust me there was absolutely no reason to take the safety. NONE

Sorry BB, but I have to disagree with u here. From a non-betting perspective, u take the ball, take a safety, game over, there's a 100% chance of u winning. U take a chance and punt or do something silly like try and run around till time expires, u can get a fumble, if u punt, a blocked punt return for TD, etc. etc. Shit happens, this is sports. Similar example happened this year, Iowa and Iowa St., I believe Iowa took a safety instead of risking a blocked punt return for td, so they took the safety, then punted shortly after. Risking them no harm, and a 100% or damn close to it win rate. PPL betting Iowa St, lucked out, but it really wasn't luck. It was a damn smart call by the coach and understand why and what u need to do to win a game. Simple as that. Of course Iowa bettors were furious, but if I was the coach, I would have called the exact same play.

 

[bigbookie]

Sorry BB, but I have to disagree with u here. From a non-betting perspective, u take the ball, take a safety, game over, there's a 100% chance of u winning. U take a chance and punt or do something silly like try and run around till time expires, u can get a fumble, if u punt, a blocked punt return for TD, etc. etc. Shit happens, this is sports. Similar example happened this year, Iowa and Iowa St., I believe Iowa took a safety instead of risking a blocked punt return for td, so they took the safety, then punted shortly after. Risking them no harm, and a 100% or damn close to it win rate. PPL betting Iowa St, lucked out, but it really wasn't luck. It was a damn smart call by the coach and understand why and what u need to do to win a game. Simple as that. Of course Iowa bettors were furious, but if I was the coach, I would have called the exact same play.

under the circumstances it wasnt-it was a two score game and only 3 sec left and they were on the 30 yard line---trust me it was uncalled for completely-the announcers were like why are they doing that the game is over---the iowa was very called for-this one wasnt-my point was if you saw the game you would know what I am talking about-it was definitely a fixed play for the books

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Bigbookie. I have always argued with people that books take stands on games and that sometimes they don't worry about balanced action as the public is going to pound the wrong side.

Games that I see a taxed side for college this weekend.

Byu/TCU
Miami Fl/Duke
Alab/Ole Miss
Ohio St/Mich St
Tx/Missouri
Ok St/Baylor

In NFL:
SD/Buff
Minn/Chic
NO/Car
Jets/Oak
Indy/GB

 

[bigbookie]

Even action is complete BS and a dream that doesnt come true-very few if any games are even. The book is always rooting for a side believe me:

Byu/TCU (no tax here but books are siding with TCU)
Miami Fl/Duke (heavy tax)
Alab/Ole Miss (heavy tax)
Ohio St/Mich St (dont see either here)
Tx/Missouri (very large tax) line should be 3
Ok St/Baylor (large tax)

In NFL:
SD/Buff (little tax)
Minn/Chic (no tax but books siding with Minn)
NO/Car (small tax)
Jets/Oak (small tax)
Indy/GB (heavy tax---indy has been one of the most taxed in the league since manning came on board)

 

[3mstable]

Sort of remember that game and certainly don't remember all the details, but don't forget an 8 pt lead is NOT a two possesion lead. It's only a touchdown and a two point conversion. They obviously didn't want to punt and risk having it run back for a TD. I've seen this quite a few times.

 

[bigbookie]

Sort of remember that game and certainly don't remember all the details, but don't forget an 8 pt lead is NOT a two possesion lead. It's only a touchdown and a two point conversion. They obviously didn't want to punt and risk having it run back for a TD. I've seen this quite a few times.

they didnt have to punt that is the point

 

[Samhain]

Here is another game to watch out for.

NFL Cleveland @ Washington.

 

[Mongoose]

what kills me in the booking business is that some people believe the way books make their money is off of the 10% vig. and i'm hear to tell you guys thats a bunch of bullshit. like bb said, money management is alot of it, but there is one more reason we are all forgetting....? what is it you ask? PLAYERS PICKING MORE LOSERS THAN WINNERS....! its that simple .

 

[bigbflo]

bigbookie....on a side note are you able to shed any light on the method by which the lines are set in the first place....is it a bunch of guys in vegas sitting in a back room puffing stogies?....is it computer aided?....are the opening lines tested on some kind of focus group?.....this seems to be one of the larger mysteries of modern times.

 

[krk1030]

I don't get your example at all. Wasn't Florida the one being taxed if it would have been a pk on a neutral field.

 

[Hustler982]

Sorry BB, but I have to disagree with u here. From a non-betting perspective, u take the ball, take a safety, game over, there's a 100% chance of u winning. U take a chance and punt or do something silly like try and run around till time expires, u can get a fumble, if u punt, a blocked punt return for TD, etc. etc. Shit happens, this is sports. Similar example happened this year, Iowa and Iowa St., I believe Iowa took a safety instead of risking a blocked punt return for td, so they took the safety, then punted shortly after. Risking them no harm, and a 100% or damn close to it win rate. PPL betting Iowa St, lucked out, but it really wasn't luck. It was a damn smart call by the coach and understand why and what u need to do to win a game. Simple as that. Of course Iowa bettors were furious, but if I was the coach, I would have called the exact same play.

The point is Team A was up 9 pts with 3 seconds left on their own 30. Even if Team B blocked the punt and ran it back for a td AND made a 2 point conversion Team A would still win as it doesn't take less than 3 seconds to snap the ball, get it blocked and run it back from the 30 yard line for a TD. Worst case scenario is they win by 1 pt. Team A could have ran it from their own 30 back to their own 5 and took a knee instead of a safety. Get it?

They WON by 7 because of the safety ... they weren't UP 7 on fourth down. I think that's where some may have gotten confused.

 

[jblonghorn]

Even action is complete BS and a dream that doesnt come true-very few if any games are even. The book is always rooting for a side believe me:

Byu/TCU (no tax here but books are siding with TCU)
Miami Fl/Duke (heavy tax)
Alab/Ole Miss (heavy tax)
Ohio St/Mich St (dont see either here)
Tx/Missouri (very large tax) line should be 3
Ok St/Baylor (large tax)

In NFL:
SD/Buff (little tax)
Minn/Chic (no tax but books siding with Minn)
NO/Car (small tax)
Jets/Oak (small tax)
Indy/GB (heavy tax---indy has been one of the most taxed in the league since manning came on board)

So you're saying that Texas is being taxed highly as the line should be -3 compared to what it's currently at, -6, correct? And they do this because they feel they'll get money out of the Texas backers regardless if it's at -2,-4, or even -8? Either way they'll get money outta the TX backers, so go ahead and try and get all the points you can? Am I reading this right?

 

[Jetplane]

funny-there is a huge thread about the NFL being rigged at the same time this is posted. I do believe there are some games that are questionable. Usually the outcomes arent affected rather the point spread. An example may be a referee calling an extra holding call or two to penalize a 20 point favorite up by 17 in the 4th quarter. This would be pretty easy to do and almost undetected. There was a game 2 years ago in College Football where there involved a home team laying exactly 8 points. Everybody and their mother was on the favorite. I think it was close to 90% lopsided if I remember correctly. The favorite was up by 9 points taking a knee on their own 30 yard line. There match figured wrong and there was a 5 second differential between the gameclock-in other words they would have to run 5 sec off the clock. Well on 4th down instead of the QB dropping back and throwing a pass downfield or running around few a few or punting (remember they were up more 2 scores) The QB received the snap and sprinted backwards from the 30 to take a safety. Favorite ended up winning by 7 and won me and other books tons of money. But it was way too weird. I dont know if I am explaining it correctly. But trust me there was absolutely no reason to take the safety. NONE

Or a Tuck Rule :missingte

 

[rickdee]

BB- Good stuff and thanks for the hard work you do every day


I wish there were more threads on these sites with topics such as these... I love talking about betting angles and sucker bets and so on... Too much BS i am the best capper going on.. We need to have more of these dicussions-- Good stuff fellas

My problem has always been money management... I have a good weekend and then i need to make it a better weekend by betting a game on Sunday night-- Happens to the best-- haha

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Bigbookie.

Now we are FADING the heavy taxed team right? Or playing on them? I ask because I'm a bit confused with your LSU/Florida example.

Maybe another explaination on how to play the tax will help.