The Cliff's Edge is going in the Blue Grass at Keeneland this Saturday...personally, I won't be betting him (unless I find some price horses to use him with in exactas and tris). The goal of Zito and the owners is the Derby, so he won't be all-out to win this. The best scenario would be to have him finish third or fourth and have the media and public jump on the winners of the late prep races and discount him. I don't want everyone to jump on the bandwagon.
Horseshoe: I've lived in Chicago and Kentucky (well, just for 6 months in 1993-94), so I used to follow those circuits closely. When I followed Horace Greely's advice ("move west, young man") in 1994, I added SoCal to my daily routine. However, since being in Vegas, I realized something when I looked back over all my betting. In my job, I would find myself in race books just about every day and I had gotten into the habit of betting just because I was there. When I went back over my records, I started to see a pattern where I did very well on weekends, especially on stakes races and richer allowance events, and did terribly during the weeks. I'm a longshot player and I found that I got much more consistency out of 20-1 shots in high-level races (mainly because they were well-intentioned) than in cheap claiming races or maiden races that are prevalent during the week. So, nowadays, I rarely look at a midweek card (I'm usually busy with work anyway, so it lets me focus on that) and really concentrate on the bigger, better racing cards on the weekends.
JimFeistSux: Great point about boxing the top trainers. Two years ago, I can't even recall who my top horse in the Derby was...but I saw that Baffert and Lukas had horses that were much higher than I thought was warranted, so I boxed them as a saver. The exacta paid $1,300 when War Emblem (Baffert's horse) and Proud Citizen (Lukas) finished 1-2. $1,300 for a Baffert-Lukas exacta in the Derby...unreal!!! I wouldn't do it in every stakes race, but if there are overlays, go for it. It only has to hit once to make up for a lot of losing tickets, and when you know that a given race is a proven trainer's primary goal, that's all the more reason.
JeanneS: Cuvee had an ankle injury...recovering slowly. Not on the Derby trail.
randyrohn: I used to play more futures, but I often found myself with 5 plays on horses at 100-1 or thereabouts and only one would make it to the First Saturday in May, so for all practical purposes, I would have the horse at 20-1 (100 divided by 5) and be bummed when the horse went off around the same odds...seemed like a lot of time and energy invested for very little return if anything. Anyone who can make money on futures (even in just one year) gets a big tip of the cap from me.
Bailey said he didn't fire that day, I'm wondering if he was injured after the race because he didn't run again. Cuvee was very impressive in beating Value Plus at Aqueduct. Seeing he has no preps and just one workout, I'd say that he isn't going to run in the derby.
