Which would you rather have?

[TomGshotput]

Mathematically yes 10% is 10% but theoretically the odds change as the number increases.

Example:
If I said ask 10 girls out on a date and one of them will say yes. Then you will hear a yes by the tenth attempt.

Now apply that same theory to 100. If I said ask 100 girls out on a date and 10 will say yes. You might have to ask 40 girls out before you hear your first yes.

O Dear. In both examples, the odds for the first attempt are one in 10. Then the odds start to change. In the first example, if you fail after one chance, the odds then change to one in nine; in the second, the odds change to 10 in 99. The question FZ asked was not one in nine or 10 in 99, it was one in 10. In which case the chances are exactly the same.

Imagine having to pull a ball out of a hat that has nine blue balls and one red ball in a hat, but after pulling one you put it back in. You could pull a blue ball out 40 straight times before pulling the red one

 

[paftraft]

bird in hand is worth two in a bush

 

[Doug]

bird in hand is worth two in a bush

just a dumb expression.

take the odds on 10% of the greater amount, rather than 5% for sure.

This is pretty much the theory of gambling, after all, isn't it ?

alter that strategy when that sure 5% is large and important and life changing to you.

500k/ 10M sort of does it for me ! I don't need 10M, but a sure 500k would mean a LOT to me....hard for me to essentially bet that, with no way to hedge it.

Now would I take the 500k or a 10% chance at 50M ?

Math clearly says yes, and a richer man clearly should take the chance.

I kind of already said that any monies over 5M, lack much utility to me ( I lied a bit). Sure 50M is better than 5 or 10M.

I'd probably still take the 500k, but the decision would be harder.

What do I do with that 11th through 50th million anyway ? It has less utility. I only wanted 5M to start with, right ?

That first million is the most important one.

Can I buy back 25 years of my life, and become 20 y.o. again, for say 23 M dollars ?

NO

What the Hell would I do with 50M anyway ?

It would probably be a curse, like Jack Whitaker ( lottery loser)

I'd sure have to move away....and probably live not much better than I do now.

I'd probably not buy a Maserati, a Honda will do, don't need a mansion. not gonna buy a tank and an airplane....maybe a nice boat, but not a yacht.
no $10,000 Italian suits....I'd still wear T-shirts, shorts and sneakers.

I wouldn't change too much, no cocaine or shit, I'd tip better, eat at better restaurants, probably still fly on Southwest, etc.

 

[Doug]

Jack Whittaker (lottery winner)

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<!-- start content --> <table class="metadata plainlinks ambox ambox-content" style=""> <tbody><tr> <td class="mbox-image">
</td> <td class="mbox-text" style="">This article may need to be updated. Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information, and remove this template when finished. Please see the talk page for more information. <small>(April 2009)</small></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Andrew Jackson “Jack” Whittaker, Jr. (born c. 1947 in Jumping Branch, Summers County, West Virginia) is a West Virginia businessman who became famous when he won US$315 million in the Powerball multi-state lottery. At the time it was the largest jackpot ever won by a single winning ticket in the history of American lottery. He has garnered even more publicity since his win due to several well-publicized brushes with the law as well as personal tragedies.
<table id="toc" class="toc" summary="Contents"> <tbody><tr> <td> Contents

[hide]

• 1 Powerball win
• 2 Philanthropy
• 3 Legal / personal problems
• 4 References
• 5 External links

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[edit] Powerball win

Whittaker was the 55-year-old president of Diversified Enterprises Construction, a successful contracting firm in Putnam County, West Virginia, when he chose the correct numbers for the December 25, 2002 drawing. Whittaker had a net worth of over US$17 million even before his Powerball windfall. Whittaker purchased the winning Powerball ticket at a supermarket in Hurricane, West Virginia, where he had stopped for a deli breakfast sandwich and to get fuel for his Lincoln Navigator.
The jackpot that day was a US$314.9 million annuity or US$170 million cash. Whittaker chose the cash option and received a check for approximately US$114 million<sup class="reference plainlinks nourlexpansion" id="ref_bio7">[1]</sup> after tax withholdings.

[edit] Philanthropy

Whittaker pledged 10% of his winnings to Christian charities—including several churches affiliated with the Church of God—in southern West Virginia. One of the beneficiary congregations constructed a multi-million dollar church in Hurricane. He also donated $14 million to establish the Jack Whittaker Foundation, a non-profit organization that provides food and clothing to low-income families in rural West Virginia. Furthermore, he tipped the woman who worked the biscuit counter at the convenience store where he bought the winning ticket by buying her a $123,000 house, a new Jeep and giving her $44,000 cash.

[edit] Legal / personal problems

The pressures of his new wealth also caused numerous problems. Whittaker has been arrested several times and has had numerous well-publicized domestic problems.
Jack Whittaker was arrested for drunk driving on Interstate 64 on January 16, 2003.
On August 5, 2003, thieves broke into his car while it was parked at the Pink Pony, a strip club in Cross Lanes, West Virginia. The thieves went away with $545,000 in cash.<sup class="reference plainlinks nourlexpansion" id="ref_bio1">[2]</sup><sup class="reference plainlinks nourlexpansion" id="ref_bio2">[3]</sup> Two employees at the same club, the manager and dancer's manager who were romantically linked, were later arrested and charged with a plot to put drugs in Whittaker's drinks and then rob him. On January 25, 2004, thieves once again broke into his car, this time making off with an estimated $200,000 in cash that was later recovered.
On January 6, 2004, Whittaker was arrested for misdemeanor assault after allegedly threatening the life of a bar manager in St. Albans, West Virginia. He has also been sued after allegedly groping a woman at a dog racetrack. Whittaker told a TV station after he was charged with drunken driving, "It doesn't bother me because I can tell everyone to piss off."
In September 2004, Jesse Tribble, a 17-year-old on and off again boyfriend of Jack's granddaughter Brandi Bragg, was found dead in Whittaker's home in Teays Valley, West Virginia. A coroner's report indicated that he died of a drug overdose. Several months later, on December 20, 2004, Brandi, 17, was found dead after a drug overdose. After she had been missing for several weeks, her body was discovered lying under a tarpaulin near her then boyfriend's home.
At an October 11, 2005 hearing related to his January 2003 DUI, a visibly shaken Whittaker lashed out at area law enforcement agencies for focusing on his troubles while failing to arrest anyone in relation to his granddaughter's death,<sup class="reference plainlinks nourlexpansion" id="ref_bio3">[4]</sup>
<table style="border-style: none; border-collapse: collapse; background-color: transparent;" class="cquote2" align="center"> <tbody><tr> <td style="padding: 10px; color: rgb(178, 183, 242); font-size: 40px; font-family: serif; font-weight: bold; text-align: left;" valign="top" width="20">“</td> <td style="padding: 4px 10px;" valign="top">Go after whoever killed my granddaughter with as much zealous [sic] as these butt holes are trying to convict me of something I didn’t do.</td> <td style="padding: 10px; color: rgb(178, 183, 242); font-size: 40px; font-family: serif; font-weight: bold; text-align: right;" valign="bottom" width="20">”</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Jewell Whittaker (wife) filed for divorce on May 27, 2005 in Raleigh County, West Virginia. Her attorney, on February 26, 2006 filed Notices of Lis Pendens against numerous companies and corporations owned by Whittaker. The Notice filed by his wife essentially puts potential purchasers and potential creditors on notice that the assets of the companies may be subject to debt collection and that Mr. Whittaker is a party in on-going litigation. The document specifically named and sought to prevent the sale of real estate owned by the companies. More than 25 of the companies filed a Putnam Circuit Court petition seeking to have the Notice removed citing undue hardship and interference with business affairs.
Whittaker is also being sued by Caesars Atlantic City casino for bouncing $1.5 million worth of checks to cover gambling losses. Whittaker is also countersuing them, claiming that his losses were supposed to be credited due to a slot machine he developed and that they in fact owe him money.<sup class="reference plainlinks nourlexpansion" id="ref_bio4">[5]</sup>
On January 11, 2007, a legal complaint against Whittaker alleged that Whittaker claimed that on September 11, 2006 thieves took all of his money.<sup class="reference plainlinks nourlexpansion" id="ref_bio5">[6]</sup><sup class="reference plainlinks nourlexpansion" id="ref_bio6">[7]</sup> The robbers, according to the account, went to 12 branches of the City National Bank and cashed 12 checks. The incident came to light because Whittaker had not been paying money to a woman who had previously sued him. Kitti French filed the complaint earlier in the week, requesting court costs and money from Whittaker.
On March 26, 2007, Jack Whittaker settled a wrongful death civil suit. The unexpected deal came not long after Whittaker was questioned about whether his money and alleged lack of supervision contributed to the death of 18-year-old Jessie Tribble. Whittaker defended providing his granddaughter, Brandi Bragg, with a $2100-per-week allowance. James Tribble alleges an un-parented Bragg funded the drug purchase that let his 18-year-old son Jessie die of a drug overdose in Whittaker's house.
Following Whittaker's testimony, a deal was reached. James Tribble said there was no winner in the suit after the settlement was reported. Earlier Christie Tribble testified that she gave her son $20 just before he died, but thought he was joking about buying drugs.
On February 27, 2008, Whittaker had a "near-miss" $10,000 Powerball win (missing one of the five regular numbers, although he did match the red Powerball number.)
On December 16, 2008, Whittaker was fined $260 for driving with a suspended West Virginia license. The charge dated from 2007.
On July 5, 2009, Ginger Whittaker Bragg, Jack's daughter and the mother of Brandi Bragg, was found dead in Daniels in Raleigh County, West Virginia. Foul play is not suspected, but toxicology tests are expected.<sup id="cite_ref-SJ1_0-0" class="reference">[1]</sup>

[edit]

 

[Doug]

I sure wouldn't start drinking wine that cost thousands of dollars a bottle, just give me a Beck's or Heineken or similar.

I couldn't play BJ or something for huge stakes, unless I held an advantage over the casino. Just as satisfying to beat them for low stakes, if you can.

Gambling would become rather pointless, but I might still bet sports, maybe not ?

I wouldn't hire The Rolling Stones to play my Birthday party, but I'd sure buy primo tix for any concert I wanted to see, no limo, though.

No mansion, maybe a condo....I'd always be travellling.

 

[$tinky]

From what I've absorbed thus far on this topic. I think every person has their point at which they'd take the sure thing. I guess its different for each.

surely nobody except perhaps a bumb or a retard would take the sure thing if the numbers were 50/1000, or 10/200?

I do see the point others have made though at some point the extra money has no extra value. ie 50 million/1billion

 

[Willie99]

the 10% chance at 1,000,000 is actually worth $ 100,000

maybe you can sell it for $ 75K :think2:

I'd take the 50k, since there's a 90% chance you wind up with nothing