Which would you rather have?

Search

Which would you rather have?


  • Total voters
    48
  • Poll closed .

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,508
Tokens
If I had a 1 in 10 chance in a drawing for $1 mil or walk away with $50K, I would walk away with the money.
 

Rx. Junior
Joined
Jan 28, 2007
Messages
5,446
Tokens
I'd take the 50 G easily, especially with the very low cost of living in my city. 50 G is the equivalent of maybe 200,000 in most of the places you guys live.

You have people making lousy money in Winnipeg owning lavish homes and driving nice cars and living very comfortably. One of the few great things about my city.
 

Self appointed RX World Champion Handicapper
Joined
Nov 20, 2001
Messages
15,052
Tokens
i would pass up the 50k for a coin flip chance at a mill....

i'm that guy who's take the sure thing, and after i take the sure thing they say "which door would you have chosen?"

so i point to one randomly, and there's a million behind it



since when is 1 in 10 a coin flip ?

take the $ 50 g's
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,280
Tokens
So nobody wants to go with the +EV option, huh? Crazy. I mean, yeah, if it was 5 million vs. 100 million, I think I'd be with yah because that can set you for life, but 10% of $1 million is worth $100,000, settling for 50k feels wrong.
 
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
45,000
Tokens
So nobody wants to go with the +EV option, huh? Crazy. I mean, yeah, if it was 5 million vs. 100 million, I think I'd be with yah because that can set you for life, but 10% of $1 million is worth $100,000, settling for 50k feels wrong.


The higher EV option isn't always the best option.

To illustrate, take this ridiculous example:

A: .1 % chance at $1 Billion - (EV is $1 million)
B: $500,000 cash

Assuming you can't sell the prop... I think 99% of people would
take B.
 

FreeRyanFerguson.com
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
13,308
Tokens
So nobody wants to go with the +EV option, huh? Crazy. I mean, yeah, if it was 5 million vs. 100 million, I think I'd be with yah because that can set you for life, but 10% of $1 million is worth $100,000, settling for 50k feels wrong.
I've never had 50K in the bank, and nobody I know has either. If you gave any of us 50K, it would foolish to turn around and give it back for a 1 in 10 chance of winning 1 million. That's something that a contestant on Deal or No Deal would do.
 

Rx God
Joined
Nov 1, 2002
Messages
39,226
Tokens
10% of a million is 100k.

100k is twice of 50k

easily the reasonable shot at the million, for me !

add some zeros, I'll take the sure money, though !

make it 100 million, or 5 million.... I'll take the sure 5M, that's enough for me for life, don't need 100M, screw the +EV of it.

10M chance or 500k for sure...is about the point where I think about it, and lean to the 500k.
 

FreeRyanFerguson.com
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
13,308
Tokens
You know what happens if you take the chance at a million?

You lose.
 

Rx God
Joined
Nov 1, 2002
Messages
39,226
Tokens
I've never had 50K in the bank, and nobody I know has either. If you gave any of us 50K, it would foolish to turn around and give it back for a 1 in 10 chance of winning 1 million. That's something that a contestant on Deal or No Deal would do.


I have near 50k in my checking account, Illini, I'm sure many here have 50k in the bank.
 

Rx God
Joined
Nov 1, 2002
Messages
39,226
Tokens
You know what happens if you take the chance at a million?

You lose.


I assume it's a legit 10% chance at the million.

There is a point where you automatically take this +EV situation.

$1,000 or $50, go for the dime. Everybody should

$100,000 or $5,000.... about the same....unless you really need 5k badly.

beyond that it becomes personal and customized to your situation.

100M or 5M is a no brainer for me, 5M is enough.
 

FreeRyanFerguson.com
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
13,308
Tokens
I assume it's a legit 10% chance at the million.

There is a point where you automatically take this +EV situation.

$1,000 or $50, go for the dime. Everybody should

$100,000 or $5,000.... about the same....unless you really need 5k badly.

beyond that it becomes personal and customized to your situation.

100M or 5M is a no brainer for me, 5M is enough.
Obviously you agree that there is much more that goes into this decision than mathematics.
 

Rx God
Joined
Nov 1, 2002
Messages
39,226
Tokens
Sure, Illini !

At the low end go for the overlay, until it hurts !

At the high end .... money loses utility at some point.

Do you really have any difference in your like with 100 M , or a billion ? I think not much difference.

5M is plenty for me. I'm 45, don't expect to live past 70.

Give me 5M, I might spend 100k a year, so I'm good for 50 years, barring stuff like a heart attack or other medical stuff...but you're toast then anyways, so it doesn't matter.

Hell, I might as well spend 200k a year for life with 5M !

That's plenty of spending money for somebody as frugal as me.
 

New member
Joined
Aug 12, 2006
Messages
3,331
Tokens
If it is a true pick a number from 1-10 odds then it might be worth it to take the odds. However if it is like the NBA lottery or raffle odds then I would definitely take the $50K. 1 out of 10 will always seem better to me then 10 out of 100 or 100 out of 1000 on a one prize drawing.
 

Rx God
Joined
Nov 1, 2002
Messages
39,226
Tokens
If it is a true pick a number from 1-10 odds then it might be worth it to take the odds. However if it is like the NBA lottery or raffle odds then I would definitely take the $50K. 1 out of 10 will always seem better to me then 10 out of 100 or 100 out of 1000 on a one prize drawing.

it's all equal if the drawing method is legit.

10% is 10% however you slice it.

no difference
 

New member
Joined
Aug 12, 2006
Messages
3,331
Tokens
it's all equal if the drawing method is legit.

10% is 10% however you slice it.

no difference


Mathematically yes 10% is 10% but theoretically the odds change as the number increases.

Example:
If I said ask 10 girls out on a date and one of them will say yes. Then you will hear a yes by the tenth attempt.

Now apply that same theory to 100. If I said ask 100 girls out on a date and 10 will say yes. You might have to ask 40 girls out before you hear your first yes.
 

Rx God
Joined
Nov 1, 2002
Messages
39,226
Tokens
Mathematically yes 10% is 10% but theoretically the odds change as the number increases.

Example:
If I said ask 10 girls out on a date and one of them will say yes. Then you will hear a yes by the tenth attempt.

Now apply that same theory to 100. If I said ask 100 girls out on a date and 10 will say yes. You might have to ask 40 girls out before you hear your first yes.

Apples to Oranges, hosnatcher.

nothing changed, you still had a 10% chance with the 1st chick.

now after 39 straight "Fuck No's", your ego might be bruised, but on the brighter side you now have 9 of 60 remaining that must say YES.

It's still 10%

I wouldn't care if I get the theoretical million via 1 pick of ten, or 100,000 of a million.

same thing

10% is still 10% !, assuming a fair selection method or lottery.

You are adding a condition after the game started.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,875
Messages
13,574,525
Members
100,879
Latest member
am_sports
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com