i would pass up the 50k for a coin flip chance at a mill....
i'm that guy who's take the sure thing, and after i take the sure thing they say "which door would you have chosen?"
so i point to one randomly, and there's a million behind it
So nobody wants to go with the +EV option, huh? Crazy. I mean, yeah, if it was 5 million vs. 100 million, I think I'd be with yah because that can set you for life, but 10% of $1 million is worth $100,000, settling for 50k feels wrong.
I've never had 50K in the bank, and nobody I know has either. If you gave any of us 50K, it would foolish to turn around and give it back for a 1 in 10 chance of winning 1 million. That's something that a contestant on Deal or No Deal would do.So nobody wants to go with the +EV option, huh? Crazy. I mean, yeah, if it was 5 million vs. 100 million, I think I'd be with yah because that can set you for life, but 10% of $1 million is worth $100,000, settling for 50k feels wrong.
I've never had 50K in the bank, and nobody I know has either. If you gave any of us 50K, it would foolish to turn around and give it back for a 1 in 10 chance of winning 1 million. That's something that a contestant on Deal or No Deal would do.
You know what happens if you take the chance at a million?
You lose.
Obviously you agree that there is much more that goes into this decision than mathematics.I assume it's a legit 10% chance at the million.
There is a point where you automatically take this +EV situation.
$1,000 or $50, go for the dime. Everybody should
$100,000 or $5,000.... about the same....unless you really need 5k badly.
beyond that it becomes personal and customized to your situation.
100M or 5M is a no brainer for me, 5M is enough.
If it is a true pick a number from 1-10 odds then it might be worth it to take the odds. However if it is like the NBA lottery or raffle odds then I would definitely take the $50K. 1 out of 10 will always seem better to me then 10 out of 100 or 100 out of 1000 on a one prize drawing.
it's all equal if the drawing method is legit.
10% is 10% however you slice it.
no difference
Mathematically yes 10% is 10% but theoretically the odds change as the number increases.
Example:
If I said ask 10 girls out on a date and one of them will say yes. Then you will hear a yes by the tenth attempt.
Now apply that same theory to 100. If I said ask 100 girls out on a date and 10 will say yes. You might have to ask 40 girls out before you hear your first yes.