caucus vs. GE a totally different beast not even worth comparing
turnout is garbage in a caucus
plus i know several ex hillary people that will be voting mccain
the divide between obama and hillary in iowa was very big from my observations
plus i'm pretty sure the internal numbers of the campaigns showing its pretty tight
both made stops in a 7 EC state a week before the election tells you it could go either way
i'm a probability guy
i think its more like 75%/25% obama/mccain than the 92%/5% stuff intrade is saying
still think obama will take it but will tighter than many think and 25% chance he could pull the upset