Wisconsin could have Brett Farve as their QB and they would still run the ball. As long as Alvarez is there, that is the way it will be. Paul Chryst is nothing but a "Yes" man to Alvarez. It is one thing to have returning QB's. It is another to have good ones. USC 2nd string QB Max Browne is better than every Big 10 QB except the Ohio State Trio and MSU's Connor Cook.
I wouldn't say Oregon's best years are behind them. They have a product now with plenty of income coming in along with the resources. So they have staying power. But I have a feeling that the Ducks take a step back this year. Many of the indicators that I've seen many times before are there. Losing a Heisman QB. How many programs have we seen lose a Heisman or Heisman caliber QB and come back as strong or stronger the next year? How many teams come back as strong or stronger after giving their all in the regular season to make the Playoff, only to take a dirty loss in the NC game? They are now a full 2 years removed from Chip Kelly. Will this have any affect on them going forward like it did with Stanford after Harbaugh left? They haven't been the same program since he left? Both of the those coaches were demanding type A personalities. And last but not least is the improvement of the conference going forward. Especially with the Arizona teams now making noise in the conference and USC off of probation. UCLA is back to recruiting well, and Utah is finally making some adjustments to Power 5 football and now have the potential spoiler role. In other words, other than maybe UW and Oregon St (this year) there really aren't many slam dunks left in the conference for Oregon. I think the chamber of their gun is going to have to be fully loaded for them to win the Pac-12 going forward...
I think next year will be the year the indicator if they can stay on top or fall back, they should be fine this year with Adams at QB with all the weapons they have but once he leaves which QB is going to step up is the big question. They have the QB's they want but they are all young with no real game experience at this point in time. They have a great recruiting class coming in this year and the only real question mark is who will the the QB in 2016.
They like to say Helfrich is winning with Kellys players but Helfrich did all the recruiting when Kellly was HC, it was Helfrich who discovered Mariota and got him to commit to Oregon not Kelly, the reason he wasn't at the Heisman ceremony because he was on a recruiting trip. Since Kelly left I don't think the recruiting has fallen off at all if anything it has gotten better.
I think the big game that could define Oregon's season is their trip to Michigan State. If they lose that game I believe we could see a bit of a mini meltdown for the Ducks this season. However if they can beat MSU in their own backyard it would be a huge confidence booster and set the tone for the rest of the season. As we've seen in the past, it's very hard to make it through the Pac-12 undefeated. A loss at Michigan State and we're probably talking about 2+ losses for Oregon. I'm still not completely sold on Helfrich. Great recruiter, but I don't see the intensity of a Kelly there.
BDDQH...
All of that is easy to say when your Heisman winner with perhaps
the biggest landslide win in the history of the Heisman voting graduates...
Now there's a loss that counts for something, ya think?
I happened to see Saban's reaction to the news that Oregon
+Mariota, 2014 Heisman winner just beat FSU +Winston -
the other Heisman winner [2013] in the game.
The score was 59-20, a 39 point implosion to which Saban
said, "how many points?"... as he looked down and just shook
his head. He admits that his worst nemesis has always been
the mobile dual threat QB...
What I really mean to say is...
DOH !! :homer:
When it comes down to comparing and/or evaluating the offense Oregon puts on the field, (even in this case by saying with/without Mariota,) to look at the Ducks as a team should bare a lot more weight when predicting what to expect than the impact of any one player... even the most important player playing in the most important position on the field. You bet that there will be differences... and without actually watching what their offense is capable of doing for 60 minutes against some real opponents, it's all just a lot of generalities at best with some solid talent (and fortune) and an accurate measure of a team's coaching staff.
Almost everyone here has their heart into it, including yourself. I think everyone in this forum speaks from this "mushy area" somewhere in between their heart and their knowledge of the game from many sides. Their "spincenter" if you will.
That being said, Oregon is not and never was all about Marcus Mariota. But he was important.
What is more important is what you know from the past... the safest way you can understand
it is to avoid adding on too much judgment. Trending is probably the safest of all things to glean
from history. Otherwise that area of mush can get pretty big.
Here's a pretty good stat to give you an idea of what I am saying about the Ducks:
40+ point games/total games
2014 --.12/14
2013 -- ..9/13 (Helfrich HC)
2012 -- 11/13 (First year Mariota started)
2011 -- 12/14
2010 -- 10/13
2009 --...7/13 (Chip Kelly)
2008 --...8/13
2007 --...6/13
2006 --...4/13
2005 --...5/13
2004 --...3/11 (5-6 losing season)
2003 --...5/13
2002 --...7/13
I couldn't see it until I looked at the above but the most significant
change in the Duck offense occurred when their offense went from
good to super-good (By frequency of extra high scoring output) two
years before Mariota arrived. But overall, the numbers also took a
solid jump into the high 30's when Chip Kelly arrived in 2009. The
Duck's offense has been clearly trending upwards and this trend has
been happening since 2009 when Kelly took over the captains chair
in the wheelhouse.
Almost everyone here has their heart into it, including yourself. I think everyone in this forum speaks from this "mushy area" somewhere in between their heart and their knowledge of the game from many sides. Their "spincenter" if you will.
That being said, Oregon is not and never was all about Marcus Mariota. But he was important.
What is more important is what you know from the past... the safest way you can understand
it is to avoid adding on too much judgment. Trending is probably the safest of all things to glean
from history. Otherwise that area of mush can get pretty big.
Here's a pretty good stat to give you an idea of what I am saying about the Ducks:
40+ point games/total games
2014 --.12/14
2013 -- ..9/13 (Helfrich HC)
2012 -- 11/13 (First year Mariota started)
2011 -- 12/14
2010 -- 10/13
2009 --...7/13 (Chip Kelly)
2008 --...8/13
2007 --...6/13
2006 --...4/13
2005 --...5/13
2004 --...3/11 (5-6 losing season)
2003 --...5/13
2002 --...7/13
I couldn't see it until I looked at the above but the most significant
change in the Duck offense occurred when their offense went from
good to super-good (By frequency of extra high scoring output) two
years before Mariota arrived. But overall, the numbers also took a
solid jump into the high 30's when Chip Kelly arrived in 2009. The
Duck's offense has been clearly trending upwards and this trend has
been happening since 2009 when Kelly took over the captains chair
in the wheelhouse.
This might be one of the better pieces of info I've seen any member post on this forum. That's with no disrespect to many of the other great members here at the rx, that's just a great stat to directly show how the program has evolved over the years as each head coach has taken over. Mariota was never the team, he was however a once In a generation player. That certainly helped Oregon, but I don't believe it ever defined them. Think back to Dennis Dixon, darron Thomas, Jeremiah massoli, Bennett, etc.... The ducks have always had these capable dual threat QBs, mariota is just the best one we've ever seen because of his decision making and accuracy. Great post Conan!:toast:
A couple of teams I'm surprised no one is talking about are UCLA, Alabama and Florida state.... ? Those are big holes to fill.... I think UCLA is screwed personally.... Brett Huntley was just as important to UCLA as Mariota was to Oregon...is Gohlson seriously the answer for Florida state??? I highly doubt it.... And Alabama is in the midst of overhauling their offense to uptempo and more spread. They're only one year into it, but how will their QBs transition to that style compared to the traditional offense they've always had?
I'd like to hear some people touch on those teams
I'd like to hear some people touch on those teams
I agree about all 3 teams. Anytime a Pac-12 team loses it's star QB I knock that team down a notch. Especially if they don't have a Jamies Winston in waiting. And speaking of the crab thief, will FSU be improved enough in all other phases of the game to make up for his absence? I'm not seeing it. With Bama, normally we would say they can replace their mediocre QB with another mediocre QB and be fine, because their defense and running game will pick up the slack. But the problem is Saban still hasn't been able to figure out these spread offenses that he's now facing much more often. Bama is still a very good defensive team, but football has changed, and they've been giving up a little more in the passing game every year. Under Saban they have been a very steady defense giving up around 125-150 yards passing per game. But in the last 2 years they've given up 174 yards and then 224 yards last year. That's about 100 yards more per game than they was giving up in their championship teams seasons. It's why they find themselves sometimes fighting for their lives when they go on the road. Last year they escaped with a one point win at Arky, beat LSU in OT, lost to Ole Miss. Even WV gave them a tough game before going down in the 4th quarter. Playing with a rookie QB at Georgia, Texas A&M and Auburn will be tough for Bama to sweep this season. And the Wisconsin game could be interesting with whoever they start at QB getting his first start at a neutral location in Jerry's World.
Talking about QB's, how many times has the Big 12 been won with rookie QB's? The answer is 2 in the last 20 years. Bryce Petty of Baylor and Paul Thompson of OU in 2006. He was a converted WR who wasn't the starter at that position when the season started. But Rhett Bomar got himself in a little trouble that summer and Stoops found himself short handed at QB. Luckily the conference was pretty weak that year, and OU somehow eeked out a conference title. This was the same team who lost to Boise in that infamous Fiesta Bowl game. Anyway, what i'm saying is the chances of a team winning this conference with a rookie QB aren't very good if you go by this trend. Baylor will have a first year starter this year. That basically leaves TCU with the only true veteran that we know is starting. Mason Rudolph is back for OSU, but keep in mind that he's only started 3 games. Knight is back for OU but there's a good chance that he's lost his job. Same with Swoopes of Texas with Jerrod Heard hot on his heels. Baylor is the most interesting story. For some reason people are automatically writing them off because of TCU, and they've won the conference the last 2 years in a row. They couldn't possibly do it again could they? But this team has 17 starters back (more than TCU) and Briles is known for being a QB coach. Seth Russell is somebody that not many are talking about. But this kid is a true athlete and a better runner than Petty with eye-popping 4.5 speed. So he'll add another dimension to an offense that is already dangerous. Plus this kid has been waiting for his start for the last 3 years (was a RS freshman). Keep in mind that Baylor's first big road test won't come until Nov. 5 at KSU. Plenty of time for a new QB to get comfortable in his system. Baylor will be tough again this year. But i think what is going to end up doing them in is a bottom loaded schedule of KSU, OU, OSU, TCU Texas..
so let me get this straight:
1) Marcus Mariota is a "once in a generation qb" in college football (so ridiculous you have said it at least 3x)
2) Blake Sims is a "big hole to fill" - you mean like the 5th year senior RB that became de facto qb after about 6 guys transferred and he was cut by the Toronto Argonauts in his first week of practice?
seriously
