g, you made your point there, man
No, I followed Ace-Ace last year play-off, He bet more in the "investment", and less or little amount in the "action" games... what it turned out was he win big $$$ , and not same units gained based on some people doing same amount of betting but the total of $$$ come out not much..
Just my 2 cents.:toast:
No, I followed Ace-Ace last year play-off, He bet more in the "investment", and less or little amount in the "action" games... what it turned out was he win big $$$ , and not same units gained based on some people doing same amount of betting but the total of $$$ come out not much..
Just my 2 cents.:toast:
gynecologist said:
I flat bet every game.
Sure, I LOVE some games and merely like others, but the difference in the end, for me, is minute. And it would be very easy to talk myself into a LOVE game...
I love the idea that by betting flat I GUARANTEE a winning season if I hit 53% winners. By unit betting it would come down to how the large bets do...the others are just for action.
In the end, unit bettors are about the same as flat bettors. 1-5 unit bettors are going to have a winning season if their 4 and 5 unit games win...it really doesn't matter what their 1 and 2 unit games do, unless they hit an unreal high percentage of those. And in that case, they would have won a lot more money betting flat.
Now, a unit system that makes sense is a 5, 6, and 7 unit system. Even LOVE games don't cover better than 70% over any significant time period. Like games should cover above 50% or you shouldn't be playing it. So why would you bet 3 to 5 times more money on it than a game you like?
Having a unit system which more accurately depicts the real probability makes more sense to me. I just bet flat to make it easier and guaranteed. Either I pick winners, or I don't.
Even Ace-Ace admits he loves action and advises players that bet his picks only, to stick to his $2000 games.
Sure, I LOVE some games and merely like others, but the difference in the end, for me, is minute. And it would be very easy to talk myself into a LOVE game...
I love the idea that by betting flat I GUARANTEE a winning season if I hit 53% winners. By unit betting it would come down to how the large bets do...the others are just for action.
In the end, unit bettors are about the same as flat bettors. 1-5 unit bettors are going to have a winning season if their 4 and 5 unit games win...it really doesn't matter what their 1 and 2 unit games do, unless they hit an unreal high percentage of those. And in that case, they would have won a lot more money betting flat.
Now, a unit system that makes sense is a 5, 6, and 7 unit system. Even LOVE games don't cover better than 70% over any significant time period. Like games should cover above 50% or you shouldn't be playing it. So why would you bet 3 to 5 times more money on it than a game you like?
Having a unit system which more accurately depicts the real probability makes more sense to me. I just bet flat to make it easier and guaranteed. Either I pick winners, or I don't.
Even Ace-Ace admits he loves action and advises players that bet his picks only, to stick to his $2000 games.
Essentially it comes down to reducing your variance. Flat bet if variance and bigger swings don't bother you, adjust amounts if they do.
It isn't about reducing variance at all. It's about realizing that you may not be able to accurately assess the ev of individual bets. Weighted betting is for those who over the long run are reasonably accurate at judging how +ev their bets are. Most cannot do this.
But for the novice or beginning bettor I strongly caution you to stay strict to flat betting. it will teach you disicpline.
It is much harder to go on tilt if you flatbet. If you vary, your emotions can influence your betsize.
Most people should be flatbetting simply because they won't win longterm, and flatbetting will reduce their turnover so will reduce their losses.
It isn't about reducing variance at all. It's about realizing that you may not be able to accurately assess the ev of individual bets. Weighted betting is for those who over the long run are reasonably accurate at judging how +ev their bets are. Most cannot do this.
But for the novice or beginning bettor I strongly caution you to stay strict to flat betting. it will teach you disicpline.
It is much harder to go on tilt if you flatbet. If you vary, your emotions can influence your betsize.
Most people should be flatbetting simply because they won't win longterm, and flatbetting will reduce their turnover so will reduce their losses.
I guess it's just me but I really don't put all that much into betting so many units Blah, blah blah ! Pick 60 % winners and you will be in great shape. Sometimes it seems as though the wagers that I felt the best about are my only losing wagers ! Obviously I'd be lying if I tried to tell you that I always wager the exact same amount but I am in the same wager catergory more than huge variances.
The old saying " What have you done lately " applies here ! I will sure give it my best to have another great year and I hope you do the same ! Will you be at the Bash to share some thoughts on the upcoming Pro and college football season ?gynecologist said:
:money8:
A flat bettor is a huge "tell"
The best bettors vary their bet sizes.
The best bettors find lines every week that they know are wrong. They pound them.
I got Akron +21.5 vs. Penn State. Instead of a beer, you have to bet some Dom on games like that.
Note, some flat bettors do win. And most bet sizers lose. However, the best bettors vary their bet sizes. If you cannot accurately estimate which bets are going to win well over 52.4% vs. then I have to ask how the hell you can estimate which bets are going to win at any rate over 52.4%. The best bettors actually consider Kelly Criteria, estimate their edge and bad proportional to it.........and no they don't donk away their chips by saying "THIS IS A 65% PLAY, I'm going to UNLOAD", on a widely available line in a major sport.
The best bettors vary their bet sizes.
The best bettors find lines every week that they know are wrong. They pound them.
I got Akron +21.5 vs. Penn State. Instead of a beer, you have to bet some Dom on games like that.
Note, some flat bettors do win. And most bet sizers lose. However, the best bettors vary their bet sizes. If you cannot accurately estimate which bets are going to win well over 52.4% vs. then I have to ask how the hell you can estimate which bets are going to win at any rate over 52.4%. The best bettors actually consider Kelly Criteria, estimate their edge and bad proportional to it.........and no they don't donk away their chips by saying "THIS IS A 65% PLAY, I'm going to UNLOAD", on a widely available line in a major sport.
This has always been a hot topic of discussion and I'm not sure of the correct answer...I can only speak form experience.
Young Days: Bets were all over the place....got my ass kicked.
Nowadays: Older, wiser, max bet is 5% of my bankroll and minimum bet just for some action is 2% of bankroll...I've done this now for 6 years and it has paid off....however if I bet the same on every game, that wouldve been profitable too.
THE BIGGEST AND HARDEST ELEMENT THOUGH IS DISCIPLINE!!!!!!
Young Days: Bets were all over the place....got my ass kicked.
Nowadays: Older, wiser, max bet is 5% of my bankroll and minimum bet just for some action is 2% of bankroll...I've done this now for 6 years and it has paid off....however if I bet the same on every game, that wouldve been profitable too.
THE BIGGEST AND HARDEST ELEMENT THOUGH IS DISCIPLINE!!!!!!
Here's a question I have. Say you have a bet at -115. Do you bet $115 to win $100 or do you just bet $100 to win $87 on that particular bet? And conversely if the line is +110 do you bet $90.9 to win $100 or bet $100 to win $110? I am having trouble deciding what is the best longtime approach.
Paddywack said:
There is no hard and fast rule, but for ease of recordkeeping most people I know lay for a "to win" amount on the favorite and a "lay" amount on the dog. So in the 2 situations above you would lay $115 to win $100 and bet $100 to win $110.
Any way you're comfortable with works...
