i can't bet the same amount every game. only on the games I want action on. for example i usually make 5 bets a day and would put 1 unit each on three games and 3 units on the other two. If there is a single game that I really like I would wager more.
Same goes for when playing blackjack, can never stick to one bet size. i find it gets boring winning or losing 1 unit at a time. But I guess it's because I don't go to the casino as often and want more action when im there.
Same goes for when playing blackjack, can never stick to one bet size. i find it gets boring winning or losing 1 unit at a time. But I guess it's because I don't go to the casino as often and want more action when im there.
HarryCaray said:
Sure it's relevant.
Bottom line is whether or not you can handicap the right side. Say your amounts are $500 to $200. If the bets you're making at $200 comes out to a positive, you were wrong not to bet them for $500. If your $200 bets end up a negative result, you were wrong for playing them at all. That's why you bet them all the same amount.
Here's an example. Say I have two sets of plays I make - I expect one set to hit 54% and one set to hit 58%. Even though they should both come out positive, the plays in the first set have a bigger chance of losing money due to variance. That's why I would only put 1 unit on the 54% plays and more on the 58%.
definately if it works vary your bets away. But for the novice or beginning bettor I strongly caution you to stay strict to flat betting. it will teach you disicpline. I flat bet and I the rationale I use behind it is that unless I know a team is going to win 100% every game has a liklihood to win and a liklihood to lose. What exactly those chances are I am unaware. I believe especially in spread betting that all the games I play have equal chance of winning and losing. I am fully aware that I will not win all the games or even close to that thus why play one game for more then another. My last advice to the beginning bettor is that lines are shaded I have seen it time and time again....." This team is going to roll, I am betting 3x my normal ammount." along with 70% of the people, and it loses. Long term winners I believe know that this is a grind, but if you got something that works well for you then use it.
also to answer the post on the +180 dog vs the +150 dog. How would you know what % chance they have of winning before the game starts? It may be a hypothetical situation but honestly none of us have a clue as to how a team will preform on a given day. But like I said above if you have something that works well from you then use it.
also to answer the post on the +180 dog vs the +150 dog. How would you know what % chance they have of winning before the game starts? It may be a hypothetical situation but honestly none of us have a clue as to how a team will preform on a given day. But like I said above if you have something that works well from you then use it.
Fat Tony said:
Obviously, if I knew the outcome of that set would actually be 54% after I bet it, I would bet the max on every game in it. The point is, the set that should come out to 54% won't every time. Same with the 58% set. But there is a smaller chance the 58% set will be in the negative at season's end than the 54% set.
goodcall said:
Then skim the fat and go with the better games that gives you a better shot overall. If you're that unsure of the one set of games, you're better off not playing it.
(You're giving me winning percentages and then saying you're not sure they're going to win at that clip by the way. Kind of going in circles.)
This thread gave me a chance to take a look at my horse matchup numbers. The overall numbers look like:
622-656, ROI $.087, +199.41 units
When I break down the numbers a bit, here's what I see:
1 unit plays
281-327, ROI +$.082, +49.20 units
1 1/2 unit plays
91-108, ROI +$.015, +4.84 units
2 unit plays
133-128, ROI +$.099, +54.63 units
3 unit plays
55-50, ROI +$.088, +29.30 units
4 unit plays
46-30, ROI +$.193, +59.80 units
5+ unit plays
16-13, ROI +$.032, +6.32 units
Note there was a one time adjustment figure made for a book where I couldn't get my daily plays, but instead made one entry to account for the balance lost.
The results of the 5+ unit plays doesn't bother me as the sample size is nor really relevant. What is a little disturbing is the record on the 1 1/2 unit plays. Perhaps something to think about going forward.
622-656, ROI $.087, +199.41 units
When I break down the numbers a bit, here's what I see:
1 unit plays
281-327, ROI +$.082, +49.20 units
1 1/2 unit plays
91-108, ROI +$.015, +4.84 units
2 unit plays
133-128, ROI +$.099, +54.63 units
3 unit plays
55-50, ROI +$.088, +29.30 units
4 unit plays
46-30, ROI +$.193, +59.80 units
5+ unit plays
16-13, ROI +$.032, +6.32 units
Note there was a one time adjustment figure made for a book where I couldn't get my daily plays, but instead made one entry to account for the balance lost.
The results of the 5+ unit plays doesn't bother me as the sample size is nor really relevant. What is a little disturbing is the record on the 1 1/2 unit plays. Perhaps something to think about going forward.
