Lack of knowledge...
Dont forget, when you bet against a team you also bet on the other team as well.
Those not doing it full time just dont have enough pieces of the puzzle to guess correctly what the complete picture might be.
Plus some sports are counter intuitive, others are not. You have to know which is which and handicap accordingly.
Also listening to most talking heads will steer you wrong. They almost always talk up the team that won, and talk down the team that lost. But many scores are misleading, quite often the team that played worse wins
Dont forget, when you bet against a team you also bet on the other team as well.
Those not doing it full time just dont have enough pieces of the puzzle to guess correctly what the complete picture might be.
Plus some sports are counter intuitive, others are not. You have to know which is which and handicap accordingly.
Also listening to most talking heads will steer you wrong. They almost always talk up the team that won, and talk down the team that lost. But many scores are misleading, quite often the team that played worse wins
Here is the main reason
Most people want to make significant money
Most people do not have significant money to start with
And even people who do often fall into the same category
Lets say your bankroll is $1000 to start
In reality you probably shouldn't ever bet more than 2% on any play
But risk reward. So,people do
What fun is it to bet $10 a game? How much of a significant profit are you really gonna make? Not much. Not even over a year.
So, people will bet $50-100. Or even more
That is great if you start of on a good streak.
Lets say you do
How about $50 a game and you start out 20-10(66%).
Now your bankroll is at about $1450
Well, people will naturally increase their bets
What happens if you now go on a slight losing streak?
Lets say the next 57 games you go 27-30
You just lost 600
Now your record is 47-40 but you are down to $850 from $1000 when you should be up.
Thus the game continues
The further your bankroll goes down eventually at some point you may risk it all just to get back to $1000
And your odds of depleting said bankroll eventually increase
This is the main reaaon people lose
Most people want to make significant money
Most people do not have significant money to start with
And even people who do often fall into the same category
Lets say your bankroll is $1000 to start
In reality you probably shouldn't ever bet more than 2% on any play
But risk reward. So,people do
What fun is it to bet $10 a game? How much of a significant profit are you really gonna make? Not much. Not even over a year.
So, people will bet $50-100. Or even more
That is great if you start of on a good streak.
Lets say you do
How about $50 a game and you start out 20-10(66%).
Now your bankroll is at about $1450
Well, people will naturally increase their bets
What happens if you now go on a slight losing streak?
Lets say the next 57 games you go 27-30
You just lost 600
Now your record is 47-40 but you are down to $850 from $1000 when you should be up.
Thus the game continues
The further your bankroll goes down eventually at some point you may risk it all just to get back to $1000
And your odds of depleting said bankroll eventually increase
This is the main reaaon people lose
This goes against all sports betting conventional wisdom, but if you really don't have a lot of money and your name isn't Billy Walters, your best bet is to take some pocket change, really pick your spots and let it ride. Then cash out. Lather, rinse, repeat..
Forget a bankroll. Forget betting into very efficient markets trying to grind out a profit over a large volume of games. Forget looking for +EV bets. Forget money management betting 1-2% BR per play. Forget shopping for value. Discard all those betting cliches bookies love.
We've all had winning streaks. 5-0, 6-0, 8-0 doubling up each bet and pretty soon you're into real money.
Bettors win short term; bookies win long term.
You're not a bookie, so let it ride...
Forget a bankroll. Forget betting into very efficient markets trying to grind out a profit over a large volume of games. Forget looking for +EV bets. Forget money management betting 1-2% BR per play. Forget shopping for value. Discard all those betting cliches bookies love.
We've all had winning streaks. 5-0, 6-0, 8-0 doubling up each bet and pretty soon you're into real money.
Bettors win short term; bookies win long term.
You're not a bookie, so let it ride...
I think the #1 big issue most people have is they don't even look at NFL totals, sides, props, futures as a market at all. They just think the books hang some lines and try to balance action based on who bets what, regardless of who is betting it. This is why even in 2021 you hear so much the public is on XYZ, people hate this team so there is value, etc
They don't understand what an efficient market even means. And yeah, if you do understand it, you aren't just going to win but you will atleast understand how lines are made and pick spots better, try to beat closes.
If you are consistently beating CLV, you will have a positive ROI though (as long as the CLV is worth more than -110) but in a small sample sport like football, it might take a minute or two or a few fucking years
The way I explained JUICE and its devastating effects to a friend.
Say you make 11 bets on a CFB Saturday at $100 ea
After 10 games you are 5-5 and -50 to the books.
So for game 11 If you win you are 6-5 and up $50 on the day
IF you lose you are 5-6 and down $160 on the day
Say you make 11 bets on a CFB Saturday at $100 ea
After 10 games you are 5-5 and -50 to the books.
So for game 11 If you win you are 6-5 and up $50 on the day
IF you lose you are 5-6 and down $160 on the day
