QFT
and chasing
so many people cut back on their plays when they're hot and then increase their plays when they're not. That's assbackwards
QFT
and chasing
so many people cut back on their plays when they're hot and then increase their plays when they're not. That's assbackwards
further expansion upon my post if it isn't clear
group A - elite cappers = very rare 53%+ hitters
group B - flat bettors that lose - lol no such thing eventually they all convert to group D [theoretical group]
group C - winners with varying bet sizes, hit around 50% (most winners)
group D - losers that hit 50% or less, varying bet sizes (most losers)
group C makes up the majority of winners such that C+A ~ equivalent to population C
group D makes up the majority of losers such that group D+B ~ equivalent to population D
the only difference between being in group D and group C is money management
group A - elite cappers = very rare 53%+ hitters
group B - flat bettors that lose - lol no such thing eventually they all convert to group D [theoretical group]
group C - winners with varying bet sizes, hit around 50% (most winners)
group D - losers that hit 50% or less, varying bet sizes (most losers)
group C makes up the majority of winners such that C+A ~ equivalent to population C
group D makes up the majority of losers such that group D+B ~ equivalent to population D
the only difference between being in group D and group C is money management
They dont have a plan.
Greed.
Not enough outs.
Underestimate the power of -110
Action junkies
If I had to pick a #1 though it would be the vig.
The line makers are not this supernatural group of people who has a this magical ability to make a point spread that leads the masses to pick the wrong side.
As a matter of fact in the NFL I can predict the points spread on a game within 1 point of what its going to be 9 times out of 10 before the line comes.
Since that is the case that tells me that these line makers are not that much smarter then me.
Only difference is they are playing with +110 lines and im playing with -110 lines.
Greed.
Not enough outs.
Underestimate the power of -110
Action junkies
If I had to pick a #1 though it would be the vig.
The line makers are not this supernatural group of people who has a this magical ability to make a point spread that leads the masses to pick the wrong side.
As a matter of fact in the NFL I can predict the points spread on a game within 1 point of what its going to be 9 times out of 10 before the line comes.
Since that is the case that tells me that these line makers are not that much smarter then me.
Only difference is they are playing with +110 lines and im playing with -110 lines.
Yes there is.
arbing is almost impossible to do these days offshore in the USA
I remember back in the day at my peak about 7 years ago a made it a point to have at least $500 at every single book on the DB screen that way I could take advantage of any line I saw.
Those were fun days.
I won a few poker games at therx and won a few months of SportsOptions premium and have to say I like it very much.
But the problem is if there are only 3 books you are willing to put money into that pretty much makes sports options useless in todays climate.
I remember back in the day at my peak about 7 years ago a made it a point to have at least $500 at every single book on the DB screen that way I could take advantage of any line I saw.
Those were fun days.
I won a few poker games at therx and won a few months of SportsOptions premium and have to say I like it very much.
But the problem is if there are only 3 books you are willing to put money into that pretty much makes sports options useless in todays climate.
And I would ask, why?
There simply is zero reason to pay -110 in today's game. Unless you're using a local that offers no (underdog) money line wagers.
Statistically, if you think Clemson is going to "cover" tomorrow, then bet the money line. The odds of the game coming down to 3 points is below 15%
JoeFalls:
From WikiPedia:
Betting arbitrage, miraclebets, surebets, sports arbitraging is a particular case of arbitrage arising on betting markets due to either bookmakers' different opinions on event outcomes or plain errors. When conditions allow, by placing one bet per each outcome with different betting companies, the bettor can make a profit regardless of the outcome. In the bettors' slang an arbitrage is often referred to as an arb; people who use arbitrage are called arbers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting
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Let me say, there is a lot of good wisdom in this thread, thanks for sharing.
From WikiPedia:
Betting arbitrage, miraclebets, surebets, sports arbitraging is a particular case of arbitrage arising on betting markets due to either bookmakers' different opinions on event outcomes or plain errors. When conditions allow, by placing one bet per each outcome with different betting companies, the bettor can make a profit regardless of the outcome. In the bettors' slang an arbitrage is often referred to as an arb; people who use arbitrage are called arbers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting
-------
Let me say, there is a lot of good wisdom in this thread, thanks for sharing.
No its scalping.
lol youre all right. if you add it up you all gave about 99 reasons why people lose and they are all legit.
also its a game played with a ball that takes funny bounces and shit happens all the time. fumbles, ints, errors, bad calls its a huge list. there are no such things as locks.
as far as I have seen the closest you can come to winning is to be super selective. you make your play based on what you see as an edge and hope for the best.
that said I have finally made an nfl play this year. Indy +6 over Denver. Indy is solid at home as shown by beating Seattle. Denver is looking more vulnerable as the weeks go on. Dallas had em and Jax gave them a decent game. I took the 6 but I really do expect an Indy win.
also its a game played with a ball that takes funny bounces and shit happens all the time. fumbles, ints, errors, bad calls its a huge list. there are no such things as locks.
as far as I have seen the closest you can come to winning is to be super selective. you make your play based on what you see as an edge and hope for the best.
that said I have finally made an nfl play this year. Indy +6 over Denver. Indy is solid at home as shown by beating Seattle. Denver is looking more vulnerable as the weeks go on. Dallas had em and Jax gave them a decent game. I took the 6 but I really do expect an Indy win.
This falls under money management. A bad thing is over betting your bankroll. I read an article a few years back that I thought was pretty interesting. In football and basketball, when betting the spread, you should bet between 3-5% of your bankroll. You will maximize your profits if you make around 200 bets or so per season and hit around the 54-55% mark. he proved it mathmaticaly that if you bet around 8-10% of your bankroll and hit 60%, you will still lose money.
