West Coast/Pac-10 Week 8

[Conan]

Arizona may not be as good as their record indicates but i don't think Cal is either. I like Arizona alot here.

San Jose State is a team that covers every time i bet them. They cleaned up for me last week. But for some reason this week i have a bad feeling about them. Maybe b/c how easy they had it last week.

Disagree with you about Cal jetro. Zona is simply outmanned. If Stanford can cut up that defense, imagine what Cal can do.

SJSU is a different team this year. They are nearly complete at every phase and they've even proven that they can win on the road. NMSU is one of the lower tier WAC teams. They won't be 3rd in the standings within a week or 2. Also I expect a letdown from them after a big win @ Reno last week. They are a passing team vs a very good pass defense in SJSU and their defense allows more than 30 ppg. I think the Spartans can handle them.

 

[Railbird]

agree like jose and cal

 

[Conan]

This is a very skimpy week with the lines sharpening up. Tread lightly. Here's my order of preference:

USC-42/WSU** (best bet)
Or.St.-14/UW*
SJSU-2.5/NMSU*
Cal Pk/UA* (do not bet this game over 2.5)
UCLA-2/Stanford*

Footnote about Cal/AZ... This bet depends heavily on if Jahvid Best plays or not. I do like Shane Vereen but Zona's big weakness seems to be defensing the proficient running back. Some fall off here if Best cannot play.

 

[Conan]

where's all this cal love coming from??? they've had two road games- they squashed wash st and got pummeled at maryland. they seem to be a fall back option for the voters to sneak into the top 25 every week when teams enter and exit. arizona hasnt beaten the greatest teams, but have been one of the more impressive teams at home, i gotta give them the slight edge

There's more continuity in this team than you'd think JJ because they return everyone but their skill position players (other than their QBs). Jahvid Best starting has taken up a lot of their slack at RB but he's good for a lot of all purpose yards as well. Joe McKnight may be the only other RB in the conference that can match Best's speed. There seem to be a couple of WRs who have played well but with just 1/2 a season gone by, no one has had enough time to establish themselves. Their defense has shown some signs of coming around now that they've had time to adjust to playing the 3-4. They are getting better as time goes by. My only question is about continuity at the QB slot. It seems that no matter who plays, they are only good for 3 or 4 games and it's time to swap out the starter. Whatever. Longshore and Riley between them can win games as long as the right guy is taking the reps. But it's flip a coin. Strange.

Don't forget that they are playing off a bye week too.

 

[Conan]

Has anyone noticed the UCLA - Stanford line moving from UCLA-2.5 to UCLA+1?

I'm going to hit this one again. Maybe I'll wait until game time. Often when you get a move of 3.5 and one team is sided so heavily the books get very rich. I didn't think the public loved Stanford so much. It's not easy playing vs. UCLA at the Rose Bowl.

 

[Delta00]

Stanford's the play here, teams have been able to run it at UCLA all year with how poor their LBs are playing. Reggie Carter playing outside of his natural MLB position is now much much less effective. UCLA will never be anything offensively with that mash unit of an OL.

 

[Conan]

Nice little writeup about Oregon State/UW...

I found this in my surfing around doing research.... pretty nice writeup.

After a sluggish start Oregon State seems to have found themselves and have made it back to .500. After being on the wrong end of the score with the Beavers for their trip to Happy Valley, I admit that I almost left them on the side of the road as gone. Since the 0-2 start and 0-2 against the spread, the Beavers have rebounded, going 3-1 overall and 4-0 against the spread.

For Washington, the season started with very low expectations, and somehow the Huskies have failed to even live up to those. It has become all but a given that Coach Ty Willingham will be gone after the season (if he makes it), and the once proud Washington program will start the rebuilding process all over again.

Though Washington has covered once this season, and it was at home, that game was over a month ago and they haven't really been close again since.

This is a classic matchup of a very hot team against a team not playing well. Oregon State has managed to get its offense back into the top 25 in most major offensive categories except for rushing yards, where they are currently 47th but on the rise. They will be met by a defense which ranks 117th in points allowed and 119th in yards allowed.

When Washington has the ball, look for more of the same, as the Huskies rank near the bottom of the pack in just about every offensive statistic, and OSU is in the upper quarter to upper half range across the board. The Beavers have also covered the last four times these two teams have met and have covered five of the last six times the game has been played in Washington. All signs point to the Beavers covering fairly easily again.

 

[Conan]

Recap:

Year to date record:
25-12 (68%) +19 units

Week 8 picks:
USC-42/WSU** (best bet)
Or.St.-14/UW*
SJSU-2.5/NMSU*
Cal Pk/UA* (do not bet this game over 2.5)
UCLA-2/Stanford*

 

[Conan]

Interesting addition to ASU's offense... they really need a deep threat. That's been a serious deficiency in their passing game, making it easy for opponents to play zone and keep everything underneath. Maybe this addition will change the face of their one-dimensional offense. Having a very tenuous rushing game, they are very beatable. As I was saying, they really need something more. If Brandon Smith works out, he should help loosen up other phases of their offense.


WR Brandon Smith reappears at ASU practice Arizona State's final practice during its second bye week included a Brandon Smith sighting.

Actually the junior wide receiver, who last caught a pass in a game in the 2006 Hawaii Bowl, hauled in deep passes Wednesday and Thursday. That's a rarity in a promising career that for injury and other reasons has never taken off.
"He's finally healthy, and he can run," coach Dennis Erickson said. "He's done some really good things. "This is the best I've seen him. He's been hurt all the time. He had a pretty good spring (in 2007) then we got into camp and got hurt and never did see him. Same thing happened this camp. He does have God-given talent. I'll be anxious to see him."
After redshiriting in 2005, Smith started two games in '06. He finished that season with only six catches but a 27.8-yard per catch average. His 62-yard touchdown catch from Rudy Carpenter against Washington State was ASU's longest completion of the '06 season. He had a 37-yard touchdown catch in the Hawaii Bowl.
Smith has yet to play in the Erickson era (19 games) due to injuries.
Because he can stretch the field, Smith could be a spark to a struggling offense and a 2-4 team on a four-game losing streak.
The Sun Devils are off Friday and Saturday then return to practice Sunday to begin more detailed preparation for Oregon on Oct. 25. The Ducks (5-2) also are off this week.
There will be no local television coverage of the Oregon game, but it will be shown on tape delay on the Oregon Sports Network.

 

[Conan]

Recap:

Year to date record:
25-12 (68%) +19 units

Week 8 picks:
USC-42/WSU** (best bet)
Or.St.-14/UW*
SJSU-2.5/NMSU*
Cal Pk/UA* (do not bet this game over 2.5)
UCLA-2/Stanford*

To echo the sentiments I've read here, adding that week 8 has been my nemesis going back some years, the best I can do is go with the flow as I see things develop around the conference.

I try not to get too hung up over-thinking the games from every angle that pops up. Throwing out the right information hopefully clears matters the right way. So here I'm just trying to catch the team with an edge in the situation and then go for it. Bigger linemen, faster defense, trending improvements, etc. Some basic things. Luck would help too.

 

[nd2000]

I like CAL. They are the rested team and have argueably the best OL in the PAC-10. That is bad news for Zona's below average defensive front seven. Also, Cal was favored over Zona by 14 points last year (and covered), and I really don't think Zona has closed the gap that much. While their offense is better this year, their defense is no doubt worse.

 

[Conan]

Here's an interesting angle on the OSU/UW game...

The Huskies defense has yielded 17 touchdown passes -- five more than any other Pac-10 team -- and allows opponents to complete 71 percent of their passes. (Only one other team, Stanford at 66 percent, allows a completion percentage greater than 59 percent.)

I think this game could get ugly. The Beavers have so many ways they can exploit UW's defense it's hard to imagine them getting stopped very often in this game.

 

[nd2000]

It's also hard to fathom Oregon State as 16-point road chalk in this game against a rested UW squad. Oregon State has been a covering machine recently but i think their value is starting to run out.

 

[nd2000]

Stanford's the play here, teams have been able to run it at UCLA all year with how poor their LBs are playing. Reggie Carter playing outside of his natural MLB position is now much much less effective. UCLA will never be anything offensively with that mash unit of an OL.

I don't know. Stanford has been handily outgained in conference play, so they aren't a team i would want to back on the road against a team that is not a conference doormat.

 

[Coldweather]

Good luck dawg. Just win some football money!


:toast:

 

[Conan]

It's also hard to fathom Oregon State as 16-point road chalk in this game against a rested UW squad. Oregon State has been a covering machine recently but i think their value is starting to run out.

Talk about value running out...
No Jake Locker = no offense
(While they were resting they lost another OL.)

UW's Defense?
Even Stanford put up 35 points @ Husky Stadium last home game. Oregon beat them 44-10 in W1 in Seattle when Locker was healthy. It only gets worse from there. Meanwhile the Beavers have been tuning up the machine. They are also extra rested from a Thursday night game too you know, which by the way they are very pissed off about losing. I think they want to take out their frustrations on someone and UW has been a good whipping boy.

 

[Conan]

Talk about value running out...
No Jake Locker = no offense
(While they were resting they lost another OL.)

UW's Defense?
Even Stanford put up 35 points @ Husky Stadium last home game. Oregon beat them 44-10 in W1 in Seattle when Locker was healthy. It only gets worse from there. Meanwhile the Beavers have been tuning up the machine. They are also extra rested from a Thursday night game too you know, which by the way they are very pissed off about losing. I think they want to take out their frustrations on someone and UW has been a good whipping boy.

Sorry about the schedule, my bad. The already had their chance to take out their frustrations over the Utah loss vs. WSU but UW will be like chapter 2 of the Beaver's redemption. This is a very confident team.

 

[nd2000]

I don't know. At the end of the day, i see Oregon State as just a slightly above average Pac-10 team. We'll see what happens moving forward. Washington giving them a close game would not surprise me in the least. Oregon State is hot, but will it last? We shall see.

 

[SunDodger]

I like your picks this week, Conan.

The Huskies might play tough for a half, but they will fold in the 2nd half. They always do. I think they've covered one 2nd half all season(BYU game). This team is so ready to quit on Tyrone.

I was going to go to the game tomorrow, but after seeing the Oklahoma game up close, I just can't do it. I've been to 50+ Husky games over 20+ years, including two Rose Bowls, and that is the first time I've ever left a game at half time. Absolutely brutal to watch.

Willingham is not the answer.

 

[nd2000]

Willingham is not the answer.

Nor was he the answer at my school, Notre Dame, but our athletic department got called out as racists for firing him when it was obvious that he was just a shitty coach.