West Coast/Pac-10 Week 14

[Conan]

Conan...I'm pulling for the Beavers this week, but I still get that funny feeling that USC will be back in the Rose Bowl this year..I hope I'm wrong...By the way, your having a fantastic year. Keep up the good work. :toast:

Superstitiously speaking GoSooners, I'm glad you haven't mentioned this until now. I think I can hold on another week.

By the way, I just found out today where the name "Sooners" came from. (Sooner than they were supposed to make the land run waiting for the official start.) Interesting that a name like that stuck though. See what having the flu and watching the history channel can do for you? I feel so much more educated.

 

[whormoan]

Pac-10 has 10 million or more reasons to protect OSU this week. Keep riding that train.

 

[Conan]

Pac-10 has 10 million or more reasons to protect OSU this week. Keep riding that train.

Would you mind explaining to me and everyone else how a any "conference" goes about protecting one of its teams from losing?

 

[Conan]

Ducks,

Sarkisian is to USC's offense as Allioti is to Oregon's defense. That is a very accurate statement. The only difference is the quality of players Sarkisian is given by comparison and the way their defense has played which encourages their offense to play better as far as game flow goes. I wish you could say the same thing about Oregon's defense. It might have the same effect in games but unfortunately their offense has been up and down this season. Either that or Alliotti is even worse than Sark. I think that might be the case.

I hate to say this but there is definitely a coaching disparity between the 2 teams. I'd be up in arms if I was purely a Duck fan, which I am not (purely speaking) but I'm still upset about it.

 

[whormoan]

Would you mind explaining to me and everyone else how a any "conference" goes about protecting one of its teams from losing?

If you have to ask that question you haven't been watching Pac-crap football as closely as one would think you are & Im not gonna waste my energy spelling it out for you. $10 million is a lot of freaking money

 

[Conan]

If you have to ask that question you haven't been watching Pac-crap football as closely as one would think you are & Im not gonna waste my energy spelling it out for you. $10 million is a lot of freaking money

Buzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Wrong answer, non-responsive too.

Loser.

 

[FairWarning]

I have watched every single snap of ND football this year unfortunately. They are not very good, but they could easily have a much better record than they do. They have blown several leads late, so 6-5 is about as bad as they could be. They have played two Pac-10 opponents. They decimated Washington, and pushed Stanford around too. Nothing to brag about obviously, but the Irish are much better than last year's squad.

The ND defense is fairly competent. They are extremely aggressive with their blitz packages under Tenuta. I think their defense is good enough to cover this huge spread. Their offense will struggle mightily, but they do have some good athletes at the skill positions, so 10 points is probably a good estimate.

Trojans win 35-10, but don't cover the number.

Irish have struggled vs physical teams all year. Being one-dimensional vs USC on offense is never a good thing either.

 

[UoweDucks]

Ducks,

Sarkisian is to USC's offense as Allioti is to Oregon's defense. That is a very accurate statement. The only difference is the quality of players Sarkisian is given by comparison and the way their defense has played which encourages their offense to play better as far as game flow goes. I wish you could say the same thing about Oregon's defense. It might have the same effect in games but unfortunately their offense has been up and down this season. Either that or Alliotti is even worse than Sark. I think that might be the case.

I hate to say this but there is definitely a coaching disparity between the 2 teams. I'd be up in arms if I was purely a Duck fan, which I am not (purely speaking) but I'm still upset about it.

Allioti and Belloti are very close friends but I believe that there may be a change after this yr. May see John Neal promoted from secondary coach and that would be a nice upgrade.

 

[nd2000]

Irish have struggled vs physical teams all year. Being one-dimensional vs USC on offense is never a good thing either.

I agree. But we are not asking them to do much here. In fact, they can get hammered by a lot and still cover....

 

[Conan]

Allioti and Belloti are very close friends but I believe that there may be a change after this yr. May see John Neal promoted from secondary coach and that would be a nice upgrade.

Anything more you hear about this before it goes totally public I'd like you to post if you wouldn't mind.

 

[gynecologist]

GL conan, I'm on OSU -2 this week..


I'm thinking about giving the 28 with Hawaii..

 

[UoweDucks]

I know Beaver fans think it doesn't matter who plays RB but I disagree.




UPDATE ... doctor's report and latest information has OSU coach Mike Riley believing that star tailback Jacquizz Rodgers might be a scratch for Saturday's game. Quizz suffered a grade 2 shoulder strain (left side) early in the Arizona game. We will try to track him down today for an update from his perspective. RIley told us, "right now it's very doubtful'' that the Pac-10's leading rusher plays. .. it did not seem like a good sign when Riley - asked directly about the MRI results on Quizz's shoulder - said immediately, "I can't tallk about that.'' ... meanwhile, Riley has not chosen a starter at QB, but No. 1 Lyle Moevao is expected to be back at practice this afternoon.

 

[Conan]

I know Beaver fans think it doesn't matter who plays RB but I disagree.




UPDATE ... doctor's report and latest information has OSU coach Mike Riley believing that star tailback Jacquizz Rodgers might be a scratch for Saturday's game. Quizz suffered a grade 2 shoulder strain (left side) early in the Arizona game. We will try to track him down today for an update from his perspective. RIley told us, "right now it's very doubtful'' that the Pac-10's leading rusher plays. .. it did not seem like a good sign when Riley - asked directly about the MRI results on Quizz's shoulder - said immediately, "I can't tallk about that.'' ... meanwhile, Riley has not chosen a starter at QB, but No. 1 Lyle Moevao is expected to be back at practice this afternoon.

Ducks, there's not doubt in my mind that they'd be better off with him playing but Langsdorf is one very creative OC and you can't just kiss off guys like McCants and Francis. Especially in the case of Jeremy Francis, I don't think he's played enough snaps for anyone to know what to expect from him... but from what I've seen, he hits the hole pretty damn quick. Maybe he lacks Quizz's vision but you gotta figure that the Duck's OL will be able to spring him loose at least a few times. Then there's McCants who is extremely difficult to tackle and prevent from gaining more yards after contact. (see Blount)

Another thing to consider is that the Beaver D has done pretty well vs teams that run a similar spread offense. I am curious though to see what they come up with as an answer to Masoli's running ability. To me that is a very formidable part of Oregon's rushing game. Not sure though that will be enough to offset the disparity in passing and passing defense between the two of them.

I am still a bit in a state of wonder about how well OSU's passing offense has performed... #1 in the Pac and I even think the margin between them and the rest of the conference has actually widened out further since Canfield has been starting. Gotta give them credit for how much they've improved since last season... kind of a remarkable turn around when you look back at their QB play last season. I would have never in a hundred years expected to see OSU's QBs turn in a better season than Oregon's QBs have... at least from a standpoint of looking at it from the perspective of what we saw during fall camp. (though I have to say that I saw it coming in Moevao's case... he has been hitting his targets remarkably well since the summer, though I didn't expect him to be THAT good.) I am still a bit in awe of how well Canfield has played for almost the past month.

I think QB play will decide this game.

 

[Conan]

errata:

UoD
I hope you caught my mistake naming the "DUCK'S OL" springing... when I mentioned Jeremy Francis.... of course I meant the "BEAVER'S OL"

I see a lot of people, including the books who have moved the line to 2 are figuring the Ducks to take this one. I think a lot of that has to do with how well the Duck offense has worked for the last couple games as well as the bye week, not to mention OSU's few injuries. One answer I have for these people is that the Beavers have responded to adversity as well as I have seen any team respond. It's almost as if it gives the rest of the team a little extra purpose and something more to play for. They definitely have the personnel to pull it off. I think it will take a spirited effort for them to win this game. So what else is new?

In any event, regardless of the outcome here, I am very pleased to see both Oregon Schools very high up in the standings. Of course the possibility of seeing one of them beat out USC for the conference championsip (tiebreaker considered) is fabulous. The entire state should be proud of both of them. Maybe the Pac-10 was down this year, but you can leave both Oregon teams out of that situation. Also on that topic I want to add that I have never seen a year with more new players making as big an impact as I have seen practically on every team. With some experience under their belts coming back, I doubt the conference will be down for long.

 

[gynecologist]

Hey conan..

Who do you think will be the QB for the Beavers?

 

[Conan]

Hey conan..

Who do you think will be the QB for the Beavers?

Considering how well Canfield has been playing I think he'll get the start. But if Moevao is healthy enough, he'll get some snaps, maybe more than that if things are going exceptionally well for him or if there's any kind of problem with Canfield.

I think Moevao might be a little rusty and maybe a little accident prone which is why Canfield gets the edge here -- not much of a big deal but I don't think Lyle's accuracy and timing will be on because he's been away. However if he does play a lot, he'll settle down after a while. The point is that I don't see a problem either way.

What I think will be the determining factor is how well the Beavers can contain and/or get to Masoli. I don't think we'll get a big offensive showing here by either side. This one will be decided in the trenches and by how well the defenses can stop the rush and harass the opposing QB.

 

[Conan]

This may not amount to much...

Depends on which flu Blount has contracted... some last a week some just a couple days.

LeGarrette Blount sits out practice due to illness

Posted by Rob Moseley

<hr> 11/25/08
4:52pm
Otherwise pretty healthy, the Ducks were without LeGarrette Blount at the start of practice today. Blount was bundled up in sweats to ward off the chilly weather, and listed as “sick” on the daily injury report. He didn’t appear to be in particularly bad shape, and in my pre-practice interviews guys mentioned his name as if he was expected to play Saturday. We’ll see if he’s able to go tomorrow, and if he’s in any danger of being limited Saturday at Oregon State.

 

[Conan]

Oh my. Here's an interesting fact I didn't see until just today...

Oregon has not beaten a team with a winning record this season except for 6-5 Arizona, against whom they almost blew it playing at home. This may turn out to be a little more of an uphill battle for the Ducks than I thought.

Another interesting angle that just came to me...
Probably the best OC in the conference, Chip Kelly vs the best DC in the conference, Mark Banker.

There are other interesting angles going into this game too. Both teams are pretty good defensing the run. OSU #2 vs UO #3. If that holds up to be true, the game defaults to the passing game where Oregon St. has a clear advantage. #1 Pac-10 passing offense vs the #10 passing defense.

Another stat I hadn't seen before is the comparison of both teams' defenses inside the red zone. I'm surprised to see Oregon last in the conference having given up 26 TD's from inside the 20. 13 rushing and 13 passing. Compare that to the Beaver's red zone defense that has yielded only 16 TDs from inside the red zone (8-8), 2nd fewest in the conference. (USC #1)

The above makes sense in the context of comparing their DC's, so it's really not so surprising. Perhaps a prevailing opinion that Oregon's offense is so productive that they will overwhelm Oregon State is a bit of a knee jerk judgement, maybe a little on the square side, and that it will be the main factor contributing to the outcome of this game. But regardless of all this, it's not going to be easy for either team to pull away here.

 

[whormoan]

Oh my. Here's an interesting fact I didn't see until just today...

Oregon has not beaten a team with a winning record this season except for 6-5 Arizona, against whom they almost blew it playing at home. This may turn out to be a little more of an uphill battle for the Ducks than I thought.

Another interesting angle that just came to me...
Probably the best OC in the conference, Chip Kelly vs the best DC in the conference, Mark Banker.

There are other interesting angles going into this game too. Both teams are pretty good defensing the run. OSU #2 vs UO #3. If that holds up to be true, the game defaults to the passing game where Oregon St. has a clear advantage. #1 Pac-10 passing offense vs the #10 passing defense.

Another stat I hadn't seen before is the comparison of both teams' defenses inside the red zone. I'm surprised to see Oregon last in the conference having given up 26 TD's from inside the 20. 13 rushing and 13 passing. Compare that to the Beaver's red zone defense that has yielded only 16 TDs from inside the red zone (8-8), 2nd fewest in the conference. (USC #1)

The above makes sense in the context of comparing their DC's, so it's really not so surprising. Perhaps a prevailing opinion that Oregon's offense is so productive that they will overwhelm Oregon State is a bit of a knee jerk judgement, maybe a little on the square side, and that it will be the main factor contributing to the outcome of this game. But regardless of all this, it's not going to be easy for either team to pull away here.

Your research is great but the only stat you need to know for this game is $10,000,000. That is how much $$$ the Pac-crap makes when OSU wins this game. Assume if they win, they cover the 3. OSU ain't losing this game. The powers that be will ensure as much

 

[Conan]

Just one last tag on the Quizz Rogers issue.
I seriously doubt that he will play in the CW.

But remember this....

Last year it was Yvenson Bernard, OSU's #1 tailback sitting it out in the CW with an injury when backup Matt Sieverson was called upon to take up the slack. 148 rushing yards later people were saying Yvenson who?

I wouldn't go so far out on a limb to predict that the same thing will happen here however Ryan McCants is looking forward to stepping in for the injured Quizz. I can't help but wonder if this will be a case of history repeating itself.

Also, lurking in the wings is 3-deep Jeremy Francis who pulled off a couple nice runs in the Zona game last week. Either way, I don't see OSU's running game being snuffed out. The question is how effective will it be? James Rogers wil be running the fly sweep 1/2 dozen times in this game. Count on it. That's for starters. Beyond that....???

On the flip side, no doubt the jacuzzi/juice bar/extra bye week pampered Ducks will be playing at near 100% and will be well rested for Saturday. (assuming that Blount will get over his flu by then)

God I really hope I don't have to watch USC pound down another B-10 team in the Rose Bowl. It's getting to be very redundant and boring. I also dread the possibility of seeing another B-10 loser (Ohio St.) get in and further embarass the undeserving Big-10 conference.

By the way, Utah's a fade unless they get Cincinnatti who will be playing in the BCS bowl game of the year. Can't wait! As far as I'm concerned, it's not just having the pleasure of seeing USC get beat out by Oregon St. (tiebreakerwise) or the Pac-10 schools getting done out of 1/2 million BCS bucks each or the Beavers losing a shot at redemption vs PSU that bothers me... it's those shitty BCS bowl games I'll have to watch if Oregon wins. Blah!