West Coast/Pac-10 Week 13

Conan · Nov 20, 2008

Here's something I didn't see earlier. This must have been posted at ESPN tonight.

Oregon State vs. Arizona

By Scouts, Inc

Thursday, November 20, 2008


 <table id="inlinetable" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr><th colspan="10" style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Oregon State at Arizona Matchups</th> </tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" width="62" align="center">QB</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" width="62" align="center">RB</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" width="62" align="center">WR</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" width="62" align="center">OL</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" width="62" align="center">DL</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" width="62" align="center">LB</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" width="62" align="center">DB</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" width="62" align="center">ST</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" width="62" align="center">Coach</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" width="62" align="center">Overall</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td width="62" align="center">

</td> <td width="62" align="center">

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Oregon State Offense vs. Arizona Defense Beavers RB Jacquizz Rodgers continued his assault on opposing defenses last week, carrying 27 times for 144 yards and a touchdown against California. The undersized true freshman, who is averaging a Pac-10 leading 123.3 yards per game, is a slippery runner and his shifty style makes it difficult for defenders to get a clean shot on him. Running behind an offensive line that has been effective moving defenders off the line of scrimmage has of course helped, and don't expect that to change this week. Arizona DTs Earl Mitchell (265 pounds) and Donald Horton (275) make up for heir lack of size with explosive first steps and agility but they don't match up well with Oregon State's interior offensive linemen. Though 286-pound LG Adam Speer, 288-pound C Alex Linnenkohl and 296-pound RG Gregg Peat are all slightly bigger than Mitchell and Horton they aren't plodding drive-blockers. They are quick enough to prevent penetration and they generally sustain their blocks well. Rodgers should have some success getting outside as well as 317-pound LT Andy Levitre and 309-pound RT Tavita Thompson are capable of engulfing Wildcats DEs Brooks Reed (260 pounds) and D'Aundre Reed (240). In addition, the Beavers' "jet sweeps" and reverses to WR's James Rodgers and Sammie Stroughter have been effective. These plays complement the traditional runs to Jacquizz Rodgers and force opposing linebackers to hesitate while the play develops. With the misdirection keeping LBs Ronnie Palmer, Adrian McCoy, and Xavier Kelley on their heels and Oregon State controlling the line of scrimmage, the Beavers should have some success getting into position at the second level. Oregon State QB Lyle Moevao returned last week from a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the UCLA game and he appeared rusty, completing just 50 percent of his throws for 145 yards and an interception. This week he faces an Arizona pass defense that surrendered 298 yards to Oregon last week. The Wildcats had problems slowing the Ducks' play-action package in particular after Oregon had success running the ball out of their spread sets early. The good news for Wildcats fans is that Moevao isn't nearly as mobile as Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli and the Beavers run a more traditional passing attack, so there should be fewer breakdowns in the coverage. In addition, CBs Marquis Hundley and Devin Ross have played well for the most part and they will make it difficult for Rodgers and Stroughter to separate from the coverage. The bad news is that all coverage breaks down given enough time and Arizona has struggled to mount a consistent pass rush. Oregon State has done an outstanding job of protecting Moevao, who shows good pocket presence and has the quick feet to sidestep defenders in the backfield. In addition, No. 3 WR Shane Morales is a crisp route-runner capable of getting open quickly working against nickel back Corey Hall. As a result, look for defensive coordinator Mark Stoops to call for plenty of blitzes and ask his corners to hold up in man coverage in certain situations.  <table id="inlinetable" width="225" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr><th colspan="1" style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><center>No. 21 Oregon State vs. Arizona</center></th> </tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td width="225">
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</td> <td align="center">vs. </td> <td align="right">

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When: Sat., Nov. 22, 7:00 p.m. ET
Where: Tucson, Ariz.
Preview: OSU's Pac-10 hopes alive </td> </tr> </tbody></table> 
Arizona offense vs. Oregon State defense
Wildcats RBs Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin are interchangeable for the most part. While Grigsby has carried the ball more and he's averaging more yards per carry, both are undersized backs who make up for their lack of size with vision, balance and quickness. Look for Arizona to attack the perimeter of the Oregon State run defense and there's reason to believe they'll have some success sealing the left side of the line. At 6-foot-6 and 310 pounds, LT Eben Britton moves well for his size and is big enough to engulf Beavers DEs Slade Norris and Victor Butler. However, Grigsby and Antolin are going to have a far harder time finding room to work when they run inside. DTs Stephen Paea and Pernnell Booth are both strong run-stoppers who should hold their ground against the Wildcats' interior offensive linemen. Their ability to clog up the middle will make it difficult for the Wildcats to get blockers on MLB Bryant Cornell, who is a blue-collar player who makes up for his lack of range by taking sound pursuit angles and wrapping up on contact. He should be able to stop the forward momentum of Grigsby and Antolin because they lack ideal lower-body strength and generally go to the ground when defenders get ahold of them. QB Willie Tuitama is averaging more passing yards per game (232.1) than any other quarterback in the Pac-10 and he's thrown 18 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions. Tuitama possesses good size, a strong arm and deceptive mobility but his supporting cast deserves some credit as well. Mike Thomas, Delashaun Dean and Terrell Turner give the Wildcats a quality three-receiver set while Rob Gronkowski is a rare talent at tight end who caught 12 passes for 143 yards and a touchdown last week. Oregon State will counter with a senior-laden secondary and a relentless pass rush. CBs Brandon Hughes and Keenan Lewis are both quick-twitch athletes who can change directions in a flash and have good top-end speed, while S Al Afalava possesses adequate range and at 212 pounds can deliver some bone-jarring hits. Up front, Butler and Norris have combined to record 13 of Oregon States' 28 sacks and they fire off the ball and show above-average closing speed off the edge. In addition, Paea's ability to collapse the pocket will make difficult for Tuitama to step up in the pocket when the ends start closing in on him. That doesn't bode well for an Arizona team that has had some problems holding up in pass protection, especially considering Tuitama has a tendency to force throws into coverage when he is pressured and has to get rid of the ball quickly.

Special Teams
 <table id="inlinetable" width="225" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr><th colspan="1" style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><center>Key individual matchup</center></th> </tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td width="225">
</td></tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td width="100%"> <center>Arizona TE Ron Gronkowski vs. Oregon State DS Al Afalava</center>
Gronkowski's ability to avoid contact and get a clean release at the line of scrimmage allows him to reach top speed quickly and he shows a second gear when tracking the ball downfield. He's also a smooth short-to-intermediate route-runner who is fluid changing directions. However, Afalava is a four-year starter who is fast enough to run with Gronkowski and agile enough to stick with him coming out of his breaks, so don't expect him to back down from the challenge. Problem is, Afalava will have a tough time overcoming Gronkowski's size advantage and willingness to throw his weight around. Gronkowski can use his 260-pound frame to shield the 212-pound Afalava from the ball and he has the strong hands to make catches in traffic. He can use his seven-inch height advantage to elevate over Afalava in jump ball situations and he shows excellent body control in the air. In addition, Afalava can't get caught biting on play-action and/or double moves because he doesn't have great recovery speed. </td></tr></tbody></table> Oregon State K Justin Kahut has connected on just 12 of 18 field goal attempts and missed a 29-yard attempt wide right in the fourth quarter with the score 27-21 last week against Cal. Kahut also kicks off for the Beavers and is averaging 60.3 yards per kickoff with only four of his 53 kickoffs ending in touchbacks. P Johnny Hekker is averaging just 37.9 yards per punt but he's placed 15 of his 40 punts inside the 20-yard line. James Rodgers and Patrick Henderson return kickoffs for Oregon State. Rodgers is averaging 25.3 yards per return and took one 86 yards for a touchdown last week. Stroughter handles the punt returns and he is averaging an impressive 10.3 yards per return. Rodgers should have a tough time breaking free against a Wildcat team that has covered kickoffs well but Stroughter's prospects appear far better. As strong as the kickoff coverage has been, Arizona's punt cover unit is allowing 13 yards per punt return. Arizona K Jason Bondzio has connected on 11 of his 13 field goal attempts and he's shown above-average range, as three of his field goals have come from 40 yards or longer. Bondzio also kicks off and is averaging 64.1 yards with 17 touchbacks in 68 kickoffs. P Keenyn Crier is averaging 43.5 yards per punt and he's placed 12 of his 36 punts inside the 20. Antolin and Thomas return kickoffs for Arizona, and Antolin has fared better thus far. He's averaging 23.5 yards per return and his longest return this year went for 41 yards. Thomas also returns punts for the Wildcats and he's one of the most productive punt return men in the country. He is averaging 13.5 yards per return and he returned a punt 48 yards for a touchdown against Washington earlier this year. Meanwhile, Oregon State has done a sound job of covering kickoffs but its punt cover unit hasn't been as stout.

Scouts' Edge
Beating Arizona in Tucson has proven difficult this year but all signs point to an Oregon State win, mainly because the Beavers will win in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Their defensive front four will make it difficult for the Wildcats' ball carriers to get going on the ground and then get to Tuitama in second- and third-and-long situations. On the flip side, Oregon State's offensive line will continue to pave the way for Jacquizz Rodgers and give Moevao enough time to locate the open man downfield. Expect a few big plays from Tuitama and his talented receivers, as well as superior special teams play, to keep Arizona close but Oregon State will eventually get the win.

Prediction: Beavers 28, Wildcats 20

AlwaysKeen · Nov 21, 2008

makes me feel better when I read predictions like this and I'm on the other side...where did these "experts" factor in the home field?...oh I see one sentence, and no mention of OSU being a merely mortal road team...interesting stuff...

asudevil88 · Nov 21, 2008

Maybe not as big of home field as people think.

UA Sports
Opinion by Greg Hansen : Cats' success fails to fill seats, no butts about it
Opinion by Greg Hansen
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 11.21.2008

At the beginning of business hours Thursday, the UA had sold 47,048 tickets to Saturday's provocative Arizona-Oregon State football game. That's 10,000 unsold seats. That's both sad and absurd.
The same principal that has led to the demise of minor-league baseball, spring training, the Copper Bowl and Tucson's LPGA event applies.
Tucson is not going to fully support Wildcat football until the Wildcats are far better than 6-4 or unless the marquee says USC or ASU.
It is the same sort of I'm-not-going-to-get-involved approach that got Dick Tomey canned and led to a decade of losing football.
This game should be sold out, and you know it. It is not going to rain, and the game-time temperature is predicted to be 72 degrees. Heaven.
Our community offers a group shrug.
The two best stories in all of college football are Texas Tech vying for the national championship and Oregon State contending — leading — for the Rose Bowl.
Moreover, for the first time since 1998, Arizona is positioned to return to relevancy in college football. Beating the No. 21 Beavers springs open the door to all manner of long-awaited opportunity.
We are responding to it like the UA-Toledo game.
"With our fans, brand equity plays a big role,'' said UA senior associate athletic director Scott Mackenzie. "Oregon State's a much better football team than UCLA, but if we were playing UCLA this week we'd sell another 5,000 tickets.''
There is a sad parallel in Albuquerque.
Arizona conqueror Rocky Long resigned as New Mexico's football coach on Monday, eschewing a five-year, $4million contract, departing his alma mater and a program that went 9-4 last year and has played in five bowl games since 2002.
"If you want to compete with the big boys," he said, "you've got to act like it."
Long cited the lack of community support in Albuquerque, and for good reason; the Lobos played to just 74 percent capacity at University Stadium this year, averaging 29,713 fans in a metro area of about 800,000 people.
The UA can feel Rocky's pain. Albuquerque, meet Tucson. Apathy times two.
"It's hard to figure out why we don't get more support,'' said standout UA left tackle Eben Britton. "But people are a lot more excited than they were four years ago.''
Saturday's game is the culmination of Mike Stoops' five-year project. It is final exam time. If the Wildcats win, they are over the hump. Ticket scalpers should be overwhelmed.
Arizona ranks 40th nationally in attendance at 51,975 per game. That is a distant 51st overall in percentage of capacity (89.9 percent). Those are not attractive numbers in a valley that holds almost 1.1 million people.
"I assume they'll have a big crowd because it's a big game,'' Oregon State safety Greg Laybourn told the Oregonian newspaper.
News travels more s-l-o-w-l-y in the Old Pueblo.
MacKenzie and the UA marketing/ticket staff have applied unusually aggressive steps to grow a bigger crowd. They have discounted tickets to $15 and $9. They have offered an unprecedented $61 two-game package — with the ASU game, no less — that includes a $22 voucher for food and drink. They have even launched a telemarketing campaign.
They are treating it like a Sidewinders series against the Salt Lake Bees.
And yet 10,000 tickets remain.
"Our fans have hung in there with us,'' MacKenzie says. "We'd like to take it to the next level and sell it out, but realistically we might first have to go to a bowl game and win seven, eight, nine games a year.''
Cal was ranked in the Top 25 when it played here Oct. 18. Arizona was 4-2 and reaching for bigger things. The sun shone. A passing circus was in the forecast. A mere 48,372 attended.
This year, 32 Division I schools have experienced season sellouts; 100 percent capacity. Not all of them are big (or traditional) winners: East Carolina, Wake Forest, Rutgers, Arkansas.
Tucsonans have not exhibited staying power or patience. In 2000, the Wildcats returned home Nov. 11 to play 10th-ranked Oregon State. At 5-4, the Wildcats had spent part of the year in the Top 25; their losses were to No. 18 Ohio State, No. 7 Oregon, No. 8 Washington and UCLA by differentials of 3, 3, 4 and 10.
Only 44,109 attended that Oregon State game; the feeling was that the Wildcats could not score enough points to attract interest. So they forced Tomey to resign.
Today, Arizona is averaging a school-record 39.7 points. It is ranked No. 11 nationally in points.
And 10,000 seats remain unsold.
"Fans in Tucson finally have something to cheer for,'' wrote Paul Buker of the Oregonian.
And some of them might actually show up to do so.

Conan · Nov 21, 2008

AlwaysKeen · Nov 21, 2008

I'll be surprised if come Saturday it's not a totally sell-out, guess we will have to see...College Football Now is a great show, I tivo it everyday and watch it regularly...Mayock and Davis are sound analysts and Terry Donahue is particularly sharp...that being said if you have followed their picks so far this year you might realize that they are better off in the announcer's booth than they are at the betting window...interesting that in duck's thread he saw the same thing I saw with Moevao last week and his throwing shoulder...again, should be a great game...

Conan · Nov 21, 2008

pags11 said:
I'll be surprised if come Saturday it's not a totally sell-out, guess we will have to see...College Football Now is a great show, I tivo it everyday and watch it regularly...Mayock and Davis are sound analysts and Terry Donahue is particularly sharp...that being said if you have followed their picks so far this year you might realize that they are better off in the announcer's booth than they are at the betting window...interesting that in duck's thread he saw the same thing I saw with Moevao last week and his throwing shoulder...again, should be a great game...

I might have been a bit hasty when I figured the Beavers to be worse off if Canfield ended up playing in the Cal game. He has the "quintessential" QB physique. Taller and stronger and more athletic than Moevao though he's not a scrambler. Moevao's built more like a running back or a linebacker, 6'2" 220 lbs. But Canfield's arm is better even though it's hard to argue against a guy who has improved as much as Moevao has. In his last 2 games starting for Moevao, he was hitting his receivers at a 70% clip. The Beaver offense doesn't revolve around their QB so much. After the way they played last year, who'd have ever believed that the Beavers would end up with 2 quality QB's who can run the offense competently and make good decisions on the field. A lot of HC's would kill for that.

the_devil_mann · Nov 21, 2008

Info

Public is pretty heavy on Oregon St. here, not ever a good sign especially in a "ranked vs. unranked" situation.

11/22
7:00P
Line / ML
175 Oregon State 60% 97%
176 Arizona U 40% 3%

Conan · Nov 21, 2008

the_devil_mann said:
Info

Public is pretty heavy on Oregon St. here, not ever a good sign especially in a "ranked vs. unranked" situation.

11/22
7:00P
Line / ML
175 Oregon State 60% 97%
176 Arizona U 40% 3%

I would hardly call 60-40 being sided.

Conan · Nov 21, 2008

Adding:

SJSU/Fresno U48*
I think this will be a VERY boring game. Neither offense has been hitting on all 8 for a long time.

Recap:
41-26 (61%) + 19.5 units
Stanford+9.5/Cal*
Oregon St.+3.5/AZ*
UW/WSU U49.5**

AlwaysKeen · Nov 22, 2008

Conan,

surprised you haven't gotten a hold of this article before me:

http://www.gazettetimes.com/articles/2008/11/21/beavers_sports/top_story/3osu03_moevao.txt

Moevao didn't practice Wed. or yesterday, shoulder still hurt...he's a gametime decision...

WhateverMakesYouNervous · Nov 22, 2008

Gronkowski is a total stud. Seeing as he is averaging about 2 TD's a game and the 1st 3 arizona games were against pasty's its safe to say he should have 6 more TD's and about 200 more receiving yards this year. A complete screw job that he missed the cut for the top tight end award!Arizona has no D line and will pay the price against a good running team. OSU +3

Conan · Nov 22, 2008

Never any doubt. :thumbsup:
(But I hope Quizz will be OK)

SJSU/Fresno U48* (W)
Stanford+9.5/Cal* (L)
Oregon St.+3.5/AZ* (W)
UW/WSU U49.5** (W)

3-1 this week (75%) +3 units

Season to Date Recap:
44-27 (62%) + 22.5 units

SunDodger · Nov 22, 2008

What a comeback by the Beavs!! Stroughter with some big catches down the stretch. And the kicker redeems himself after the missed XP. I think Canfield is a little more accurate at QB.

Nice call on the under in the Apple Cup, Conan.

AlwaysKeen · Nov 22, 2008

conan,

just wanted to stop by and congratulate you on OSU...playing without Moevao and Jacquizz Rogers and still finding a way to cover was impressive...

gynecologist · Nov 22, 2008

Good job on OSU, I had them as well but teased em to cinch Utah..

hippieki11er · Nov 22, 2008

Heck of a win by the Beavers. Straughter looks reborn and I couldn't be happier for the guy, his career and perhaps life was on the brink a year ago after his complete mental breakdown, the exact details of which we'll never know for sure.

Their toughest of this 3 game span remains to come though. The Oregon running game is looking tough and now all the pressure will be on OSU, a position they're not exactly accustomed to. Oregon will have had an extra week to prepare as well. BOL to the Beavers.

Conan · Nov 23, 2008

pags11 said:
conan,

just wanted to stop by and congratulate you on OSU...playing without Moevao and Jacquizz Rogers and still finding a way to cover was impressive...

thank you pags,

The cover seemed pretty much in the bag to me most of the game, but the win was especially impressive.

I really hope next week someone's back in good health.
The win is a testament to the way the coaches are able to instill a never back down attitude on this team. All the bantering over this game and nobody compared the coaching staffs. You gotta give them credit for putting together a team that could take a lick like they did, losing 2 of their top offensive weapons and still have enough in the tank to hang in there and pull it out.

I also hope we get to see USC/Alabama or similar in January in a BCS bowl because of the Beaver's success getting into the Rose Bowl. Time for the SEC elite to quit dodging the Trojans.

Conan · Nov 23, 2008

hippieki11er said:
Heck of a win by the Beavers. Straughter looks reborn and I couldn't be happier for the guy, his career and perhaps life was on the brink a year ago after his complete mental breakdown, the exact details of which we'll never know for sure.

Their toughest of this 3 game span remains to come though. The Oregon running game is looking tough and now all the pressure will be on OSU, a position they're not exactly accustomed to. Oregon will have had an extra week to prepare as well. BOL to the Beavers.

You know what I think HK?
I think pressure isn't a word in the Beaver vocabulary.

You could see it in the players' faces when they were down towards the end of the game. All they wanted was a shot to get it done and that's what they got. That bye week worries me a little only because it means the Ducks will be healthier. But the HFA looms larger than life in this series. Especially when the game is at Reser.

Conan · Nov 23, 2008

Sun Dodger said:
What a comeback by the Beavs!! Stroughter with some big catches down the stretch. And the kicker redeems himself after the missed XP. I think Canfield is a little more accurate at QB.

Nice call on the under in the Apple Cup, Conan.

Thanks Sun Dodger...

Funny thing about the total in the apple cup... I think they could have played 4 or 5 OT's and it STILL would have gone under!

hippieki11er · Nov 23, 2008

Conan said:
You know what I think HK?
I think pressure isn't a word in the Beaver vocabulary.

You could see it in the players' faces when they were down towards the end of the game. All they wanted was a shot to get it done and that's what they got. That bye week worries me a little only because it means the Ducks will be healthier. But the HFA looms larger than life in this series. Especially when the game is at Reser.

Hope you're right. In hindsight, I actually think the missed XP helped them and totally changed the philosophy of Arizona on offense on their next series. They were just looking to grind it out and kill the clock at that point, which of course was stupid by Stoops. Had it been tied at that point with nearly 4 mins on the clock and with OSU's defense being exposed on the prior drive, Arizona would've looked to do more on offense. The fact that Arizona didn't throw to their TE on any of the 6 plays they ran on that offensive series was flat-out stupid, playing not to lose.

HFA will have to make-up for Oregon's extra rest with two healthy QB's in Roper and Masoli going in, not to mention a plethora of helthy RB's to take advantage of OSU's somewhat undersized DL who insists on sending their speedy ends up the field each time. This will be a very, very tough game for OSU and the questionable status of Moevao and Jizz won't help either. Canfield threw some great deep balls yesterday and I assume they won't be as conservative on offense as they were yesterday. Some of those playcalls to McCants were ridiculous and beyond vanilla, especially the 4th down call at midfield which totally swung the momentum and almost cost OSU the game. Riley looked really bad there actually, which is rare for him overall.