That's hard to say Pags. There has to be some single coverages and the matchups are something I have not looked at closely. One thing I can tell you is that Oregon State's pass defense beats the Ducks bigtime. I also know that chasing Tuitama around and pressuring him will have a lot to do with defensing them. I need to look at that USC game again to give you a better answer, but in the meantime, you can catch the Cal/OSU game Wednesday at 8PM (PST) on ESPNU. That's what I will be doing and I will be paying special attention to OSU's DB's vs Cal's receivers who are nothing to sneeze at either. But as I said earlier, there is little comparison between Riley and Tuitama. You hit on the thing that Zona does well... or should I say Tuitama uses well, his WR's and Gronkowski. OSU will need to hold Zona to about 30 points or under to beat them. Maybe a few more. It's been done this year by teams with better defenses and a good rushing game to play keep away. The more time Zona's offense is on the field, the greater chance of Tui connecting on medium-big yardage plays.
Yes they do. Don't we all know it.
The key here will be for the Beaver dbacks to cover these guys TIGHT and I do mean tight. Meanwhile their DL MUST get to Tuitama often. I give Banker & Co. a shot at it with their 15th ranked defense. Time to show up and play. Zona has allowed 23 sacks this year so far, but sacks along with pressure will only slow them down. The key is to dominate the Cats with a relentless ground attack and for Moevao to mix it up throwing the ball. They must play keep away from Zona to have success in this game. If they can win TOP and Quizz can notch another 125 yard + day, they should manage to keep the Cat's offense off the field. That's what needs to happen for the Beavers to win. I give them a shot at it because Zona's rushing D is ranked 6th in the conference. I hope they live up to that in this game.
I hope I can do a little better than winning this bet with that 1/2 point hook I got Sunday night. I'd like to see a rematch with PSU in the Rose Bowl and for USC to play 'Bama in the Sugar Bowl. It would be worth it to see the Beavers prevail. I'm still gagging from that horrible Rose Bowl game last year when the Trojans made Illinois and the Big-10 look bad.
What I am driving at is the kind of defensive play they showed in the Cal game. Cal was able to run only 57 plays on offense in that game. Something similar to that is what I hope to see Saturday.
Also, I don't see Zona's offense as having as clear an edge over Oregon State's offense either. Morales and Gronkowski are a wash downfield, perhaps an edge to Morales if you go by the numbers. Straughter and Rogers are at least the equivalent of Thomas and Antolin if not better. Willie Tuitama the senior QB vs the Pac-10's most improved player Lyle Moevao, maybe another wash? Zona has one advantage over the Beavers which would be the possibility of the "big play." You get the idea. I don't see that big of an edge offensively for the Cats. On the other hand though, I gotta give the edge to the Beavers on the other side of the line of scrimmage. OSU's defense is clearly better than Zona's. Either way you look at it, there's not going to be a runaway on either side. I am counting on OSU's OL to gain an advantage by the 2nd half in this game. But they have to keep the pressure on Tuitama all day long and into the 4th quarter. Just ask the Ducks about that issue.
Also, I don't see Zona's offense as having as clear an edge over Oregon State's offense either. Morales and Gronkowski are a wash downfield, perhaps an edge to Morales if you go by the numbers. Straughter and Rogers are at least the equivalent of Thomas and Antolin if not better. Willie Tuitama the senior QB vs the Pac-10's most improved player Lyle Moevao, maybe another wash? Zona has one advantage over the Beavers which would be the possibility of the "big play." You get the idea. I don't see that big of an edge offensively for the Cats. On the other hand though, I gotta give the edge to the Beavers on the other side of the line of scrimmage. OSU's defense is clearly better than Zona's. Either way you look at it, there's not going to be a runaway on either side. I am counting on OSU's OL to gain an advantage by the 2nd half in this game. But they have to keep the pressure on Tuitama all day long and into the 4th quarter. Just ask the Ducks about that issue.
One last point to make... and I think it's a pretty obvious one. 3 of Arizona's losses have been at the hands of New Mexico, Stanford and USC. All 3 of those opponents had a good rushing game the day they beat the Cats. Arizona compiled a total of only 61 points on offense in those 3 games. To win this game, it's pretty simple, it comes down to this: Quizz has to beat them on the ground so their offense succeeds keeping the ball away from the Wildcats.
Recap
For the year:
41-26 (61%) + 19.5 units
Stanford+9.5/Cal*
Oregon St.+3.5/AZ*
UW/WSU U49.5** (best bet) It would still be ** if it went down to 45.5.
50 points would be a shootout? Is that it?
Both teams scoring 20+ in the same game?
They've scored 20 points only 3 times this season COMBINED.
For the year:
41-26 (61%) + 19.5 units
Stanford+9.5/Cal*
Oregon St.+3.5/AZ*
UW/WSU U49.5** (best bet) It would still be ** if it went down to 45.5.
50 points would be a shootout? Is that it?
Both teams scoring 20+ in the same game?
They've scored 20 points only 3 times this season COMBINED.
conan,
you know I respect most all of what you say, but are you serious when you say that Morales and Grownkowski are a wash?...c'mon bro, maybe if you are talking about the H-Back little brother Gronkowski, but surely not Rob?...you are comparing one of the best tight ends in the country to a third wide receiver who is essentially a possession guy?...I appreciate your analysis but I don't how you can make a comment like that AND actually believe it...I also love how when comparing Gronkowski and Morales's numbers you conveniently leave out that Gronkowski missed the first four or so games of the year as he was battling a case of mono...you are painting the picture you want to paint, and not stating all of the facts...next time you have a chance to email Todd McShay or Mike Mayock ask them who gets drafted first and I think that will settle this discussion...I'll be done watching the Cal vs. OSU game in the next 24 hours, but it appears to me from the box score OSU had three big plays resulting in most of their points...will share my thoughts with you after I'm done with the tape...
you know I respect most all of what you say, but are you serious when you say that Morales and Grownkowski are a wash?...c'mon bro, maybe if you are talking about the H-Back little brother Gronkowski, but surely not Rob?...you are comparing one of the best tight ends in the country to a third wide receiver who is essentially a possession guy?...I appreciate your analysis but I don't how you can make a comment like that AND actually believe it...I also love how when comparing Gronkowski and Morales's numbers you conveniently leave out that Gronkowski missed the first four or so games of the year as he was battling a case of mono...you are painting the picture you want to paint, and not stating all of the facts...next time you have a chance to email Todd McShay or Mike Mayock ask them who gets drafted first and I think that will settle this discussion...I'll be done watching the Cal vs. OSU game in the next 24 hours, but it appears to me from the box score OSU had three big plays resulting in most of their points...will share my thoughts with you after I'm done with the tape...
Last edited:
Actually Pags I was comparing them in possession situations being that OSU doesn't have a TE like Gronkowski. They have Howard Croom but they go to Morales, which is to say use him the way Zona uses Gronkowski.
I think their roles are comparable in their respective offenses. I wasn't trying to compare them to each other outside of that fact. Of course their postitions are vastly different as well as their style of play. I wouldn't discount Morales's role if that's what you were just doing. He is their go to guy much the way Gronkowski is Zona's clutch 3rd and long receiver. Both are used in similar ways as red zone players too. Both players are go to guys in similar situations and their stats compare, Gronkowski missing the first 3 games notwithstanding. The yards add up no matter how you cut it. (Morales and Moevao are also roommates which helps.)
Overall, if you look at passing stats, I think Oregon State is actually slightly ahead of Zona as far as offensive numbers go. Sorry for using broad strokes "painting" as I have the way I have taken the liberty to compare players that are as different as they are in other ways. But I'm not backing down on the point which is that Oregon State's offense is just as potent as Zona's is and their defense is superior.
Last edited:
Here's something that might interest you Pags...
I think it's overly optimistic as it fails to take into account the maturity of both the Beaver's OL and DL and their improvement over the year. I also think the Beavers have them beat in the LB department who are somewhat faster than Zona's. They expect Gronkowski to be their savior. I think the Beavers can counterpunch very well from several possible positions.
Also just to clarify, the passing stats I was referring to are the receiving yards for the top WR's we just named. I know Tuitama is slightly ahead of Moevao in yards but the receivers we are discussing are more prolific for the Beavers. Furthermore, just as Gronkowski can't be compared on the season statwise because he missed a few games at the start, you have to also look at the Beaver's OL the way they were in the beginning of the year compared to how they are playing now. Their stats are not too dissimilar in that respect. Bottom line the Beaver offense is much better than they appeared to be at the start of the season so the per game averages and totals are a bit skewed. Not enough to spell out any sort of superiority on the part of the Cats which was my point. Both offenses rate.
I think it's overly optimistic as it fails to take into account the maturity of both the Beaver's OL and DL and their improvement over the year. I also think the Beavers have them beat in the LB department who are somewhat faster than Zona's. They expect Gronkowski to be their savior. I think the Beavers can counterpunch very well from several possible positions.
Also just to clarify, the passing stats I was referring to are the receiving yards for the top WR's we just named. I know Tuitama is slightly ahead of Moevao in yards but the receivers we are discussing are more prolific for the Beavers. Furthermore, just as Gronkowski can't be compared on the season statwise because he missed a few games at the start, you have to also look at the Beaver's OL the way they were in the beginning of the year compared to how they are playing now. Their stats are not too dissimilar in that respect. Bottom line the Beaver offense is much better than they appeared to be at the start of the season so the per game averages and totals are a bit skewed. Not enough to spell out any sort of superiority on the part of the Cats which was my point. Both offenses rate.
Last edited:
conan,
I'm not disputing anything else you said other than trying to compare Gronkowski and Morales, as you stated the two were "a wash"...just simply not true, no matter how you want to put it...the rest of your points that I've read in this thread regarding the game have definite validity...it would be alright if you just said, "you're right Gronkowski's the much better player"...especially since Morales isn't at full strength as I watch this game from last week and it's overly optimistic to think he will be at full strength this week...85%?: sure, 90%? maybe, but not 100%...
if you would like to make a gentlemen's bet as to which player of the two goes higher in the draft, please let me know...by the way, through 1 1/2 quaters, Moevao doesn't look very sharp either...
unfortunately I can't access the article...
I'm not disputing anything else you said other than trying to compare Gronkowski and Morales, as you stated the two were "a wash"...just simply not true, no matter how you want to put it...the rest of your points that I've read in this thread regarding the game have definite validity...it would be alright if you just said, "you're right Gronkowski's the much better player"...especially since Morales isn't at full strength as I watch this game from last week and it's overly optimistic to think he will be at full strength this week...85%?: sure, 90%? maybe, but not 100%...
if you would like to make a gentlemen's bet as to which player of the two goes higher in the draft, please let me know...by the way, through 1 1/2 quaters, Moevao doesn't look very sharp either...
unfortunately I can't access the article...
Last edited:
OK Pags, maybe it was a stretch to try to compare them because they are quite different types of players. But the point was that they contributed in equal ways and also statwise they are pretty close. Maybe that's not exactly the same as a "wash" -- my mistake. Perhaps I should have said that their contributions to their offenses offset one another.
OK here's the article:
Top Ten Reasons Arizona can beat Oregon State Premium Story
By Thomas Preston
Posted Nov 20, 2008
Here are the top ten reasons we feel Arizona can beat Oregon State this weekend.
Here are the top ten reasons we feel Arizona can beat Oregon State this weekend.
1. It's November. Arizona head coach Mike Stoops seems to have his guys prepared in November, although Arizona has a different role than it has in the past. There is plenty of pressure on the UA, but Stoops may take the nothing to lose attitude this weekend.
Either way, history shows that the Wildcats have a good record in November, so common sense seems to be that this could be the UA's big win of the month.
2. Keola Antolin. Arizona knows to give Antolin the ball in order to succeed and we expect his work load to increase. Nicolas Grigsby is fine as a running back, but Antolin is the game breaker that the UA has been missing for quite some time.
3. Defense. The Wildcats actually do well against smaller backs and Jacquizz Rodgers is just that. If Arizona can contain him, chances are that OSU is going to struggle to put points on the board.
4. Rob Gronkowski. OSU has a solid linebacking core, but nothing that can contain Gronk. Willie Tuitama used him perfectly against Oregon and we see no reason why there would be a difference in strategy.
5. Home crowd. It is no secret that Arizona plays better at home. It will be nice to get away from a hostile environment and Arizona Stadium is sure to be rocking now that the Wildcats have secured a bowl berth.
6. Sonny Dykes. Dykes has been masterful this season at finding weaknesses in the opposing defenses. We feel good about the fact that he will do it again this week, as word is that he still was not all that happy with the performance against Oregon.
7. Quarterback play. Tuitama is definitely the better quarterback, and Oregon State's passing attack is inconsistent. The more that OSU passes, the better for Arizona. We expect the Wildcats to try to force OSU to the air in order to maximize the UA's strengths.
8. Health. Kaniela Tuipulotu and Sterling Lewis are both expected to play for a defense that has not been completely healthy in quite some time. Now that it is, it only makes sense for the overall unit to perform better.
9. Chris Gronkowski. He will add another element to the offense if he is used the way he was against Oregon and even if he is not, you have to assume that OSU has been game planning for him.
10. It only makes sense in order to fit in with the chaos that is the Pac-10 this year.
Check on that article I put a link on above. You get the idea what the Zona faithful are saying about the game and why they think they can win. Not all the strongest arguments and I don't think they "get it" where Moevao's leadership and spark are involved. They have one thing right though, that's the importance of stopping Quizz but I think they underestimate Oregon's OL and Quizz's unusual ability to make tacklers miss and his powerful style all rolled into one.
conan,
I guess I would have been more OK with you saying that...appreciate you posting the article...looks like some cheesy Arizona beatwriter wrote it...I do agree with point #9 though, about Chris Gronkowski...the defense is too busy chasing the rest of the Arizona playmakers around that he is often the one who gets the ball against a slower linebacker or smaller safety in space...I agree with you that Arizona's biggest task will be attempting to contain Jaquizz Rogers, but I thought they did a good job against USC's stable of running backs, and their overall run defense vs. Cal was good (barring a particularly weak first half, but a second half where they yielded next to nothing)...Rogers can get his yards and Arizona can still cover...limiting Straughter and James Rogers are the real keys to this game in my opinion...
I guess I would have been more OK with you saying that...appreciate you posting the article...looks like some cheesy Arizona beatwriter wrote it...I do agree with point #9 though, about Chris Gronkowski...the defense is too busy chasing the rest of the Arizona playmakers around that he is often the one who gets the ball against a slower linebacker or smaller safety in space...I agree with you that Arizona's biggest task will be attempting to contain Jaquizz Rogers, but I thought they did a good job against USC's stable of running backs, and their overall run defense vs. Cal was good (barring a particularly weak first half, but a second half where they yielded next to nothing)...Rogers can get his yards and Arizona can still cover...limiting Straughter and James Rogers are the real keys to this game in my opinion...
Last edited:
No argument about which player gets picked up by the NFL first. Gronkowski's a beast. Morales is a situation player that has developed more into a goto guy for Moevao which is, in whatever way you wish to put it, similar in their respective team's game plans. Statwise it's useless to compare them because it's all numbers and how they are used which amount to about the same thing. But it ends there. I'll give you that.
By the way, do you know that Gronkowski was passed by for the Mackey award? I think that was a major fuckup by the Mackey award committee.
Read up on that here.
conan,
wasn't aware that the list had been trimmed down and wasn't aware he didn't make the cut, but knew he was behind the eight ball with him missing so much time early, combined with the fact that this year's tight end crop is particularly deep...haven't seen much of the WMU TE, but I can't argue with the others on the list (especially since most have played the entire season)...still dissapointing considering the numbers he has put up since becoming healthy...
wasn't aware that the list had been trimmed down and wasn't aware he didn't make the cut, but knew he was behind the eight ball with him missing so much time early, combined with the fact that this year's tight end crop is particularly deep...haven't seen much of the WMU TE, but I can't argue with the others on the list (especially since most have played the entire season)...still dissapointing considering the numbers he has put up since becoming healthy...
All in all I have noted that his absence at the start of the year didn't matter too much to Sonny Dykes as far as their output is concerned. His addition has added depth to their offensive weaponry. He'll chip in his 2 cents Saturday I bet. But I also think the Beavers will answer with their own. Maybe a couple of well timed fly sweeps? Hard to say what, but I have noticed that Sammie Straughter has managed to work his way up the stat charts, especially during the past month. Morales I think will be back in form, not sure what 100% looks like but this will be his second week back and he did OK last week.
I think overlooking Gronkowski was a mistake. His numbers are better than some on the list even though his season was shortened.
