Week One schedule with opening odds.

[BigLouReturns]

Lions at Chiefs: defending Super Bowl champ is 21-4 SU & 13-9-3 ATS home in week one since 1990.
Chiefs have won 8 straight home vs. non-conference opponents.
Chiefs have won 8 straight games on opening day.
Lions have lost 3 straight games on opening day.

Line movement. The defending Super Bowl champ is 13-9-3 ATS home in week one s/'90. When they're favored by 5 points or less, which the Chiefs are right now, they're 5-1-2 ATS.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Eagles @ Patriots: Super Bowl runner-up on the road week one are 4-13 SU & 2-15 ATS since 1990.
Eagles have won last 4 road games vs. non-conference opponents.
Patriots are 11-3 SU home in week one under Belichick.

Last season Jalen Hurts was 14-1 as a starter. Sure would be interesting if he started this season 0-1.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Some rules I live by.

S.T.A.S.H. - Stop Thinking and Start Handicapping. There are way too many people out there doing too much thinking and not enough handicapping.

Accept your losses as losses. The only way to get better is to stop coming up with excuses for your losses and accept the fact that you were on the wrong side.

Don't overreact to injuries.

Focus on your research and information and completely tune out the sports media. This includes watching shows like Hard Knocks. Tune that shit out.

Your record is not what it was last year, the year before or the year before that. Understand every year is a new season and your record is 0-0 until the games start being played. Anyone can and will have a bad season if you handicap for a long time. Reminiscing about what you did in the past is for losers.

Don't watch preseason football and expect to get a feel for a team. What do the 2008 Lions and the 2017 Browns have in common? They both went 4-0 in the preseason and both went 0-16 during the regular season.

"Any Given Sunday" definitely applies to week one. Don't be too quick to fade teams in week one that are poised to have a really bad season. Almost every year there is an upset in week one by a team that goes on to stink out the joint the rest of the season. Here are the results for the last 26 years.

1997 - Both the Cardinals and the Bears would finish 4-12 SU but covered on opening day.
1998 - The Bears again would go 4-12 on the season but cover in week one.
1999 - The Saints finish 3-13 on the year but win SU & ATS against the Panthers opening day.
2000 & 2001 - Not one but two teams go 1-15 on the season and manage to cover in week one, the Chargers in 2000 and the Panthers in 2001. (Carolina won SU as 10 point dogs at Minnesota and then would lose 15 straight to close out the season).
2002 - None
2003 - The Giants win SU & ATS week one but only win 3 games the rest of the year.
2004 - Both the Browns and 49ers cover in week one but finish 4-12 and 2-14 respectively.
2005 - Both the Saints and 49ers cover in week one but finish 3-13 and 4-12 respectively.
2006 - The Lions finish 3-13 on the season but cover as 6 point dogs at home to the Super Bowl runner up Seattle Seahawks.
2007 - None
2008 - Kansas City Chiefs go 2-14 but cover against the Super Bowl runner up Patriots opening day. (The year before was the 16-0 regular season for New England).
2009 - Washington goes 4-12 but covers in week one.
2010 - None
2011 - The Vikings finish the season 3-13 but cover as road dogs to the Chargers in week one.
2012 - The eventual 2-14 Jaguars cover as road dogs at Minnesota, almost pulling off the upset as the game went into OT.
2013 - The Raiders cover as road dogs to the Jets but finish the season 4-12 SU.
2014 - The Raiders again have a rough year finishing 3-13 but cover in week one. The Titans finish the season 2-14 but win SU opening day at Arrowhead against the Chiefs.
2015 - Once again the Titans have a terrible season finishing 3-13 but win SU week one at Tampa Bay. Also, the Chargers would finish 4-12 that year but won SU & ATS week one.
2016 - The 49ers finish 2-14 but win SU & ATS by a score of 28-0 at home on opening day.
2017 - The eventual 0-16 Cleveland Browns cover as home dogs to the Steelers in week one. QB Deshone Kizer was making his first ever start for Cleveland.
2018 - The Jets finish 4-12 that season but win SU as 7 point road dogs to the Lions on MNF by a score of 48-17. QB Sam Darnold was making his first ever start for NY.
2019 - The eventual 2-14 Bengals cover as 9.5 point road dogs at Seattle, losing 21-20.
2020 - The Jaguars win SU as 7 point home dogs to the Colts but would lose their last 15 games.
2021 - The Texans easily defeat the Jaguars 37-21 opening day last year but finish the season 4-13.
2022 - The Bears defeat the 49ers 19-10 as 6.5 point home dogs. They end up 3-14 and the 49ers make it to the conference finals.

Read what other posters are "thinking."

 

[BigLouReturns]

Chiefs down to -4.5...wow.

 

[exploited17]

Kelce expected to miss game

 

[exploited17]

Last year Chiefs were 2-5 ats when Kelce had less than 60 yards receiving and one of the 2 games they covered was last game of the year vs Raiders with Stidham playing QB

 

[G-Man!]

Line movement. The defending Super Bowl champ is 13-9-3 ATS home in week one s/'90. When they're favored by 5 points or less, which the Chiefs are right now, they're 5-1-2 ATS.

Thats not any trend with an advantage Louie. Its 13 covers and 12 non-covers.
Line movement? You talked about telling everyone to watch the line movement? LOL
So what? WHY? Its nonsense.
You make a statement without a conclusion about WHY you feel everyone should watch it? So What.

Players out will move any line on any team. Yet you repost that trend - because its down to -4.5? NOW your trend matters more?
In the earlier window you never said anything about the trend by the spread range. (13-9-3) Just that it was a trend? LOL
Plus with Kelsey not healthy and productive or out, their record is bad? 2-5 ats.

Last season Jalen Hurts was 14-1 as a starter. Sure would be interesting if he started this season 0-1.

LOL You already have NE?
If Hurts was the qb for New England, who would you bet then -Philly or Pats?
Thats the bet Louie, not the stupid trend without Brady...

You Cant bet games with TRENDS when the players are not there that created them?

The recent play between teams is what's relevant. Not what happened 16 years ago over and over. That Money was already won back then.
Using any trend without the same ability of a team that created it - is a bad risk.
Your betting on a team that doesnt win anymore.
Belichiks record without Brady is no longer what its was with Brady. Thats WHY I said you need to look that up first.

Brady took the Tampa team to the SB and won! They wont do that now? He's gone.

You must believe that Hurts is a one season player and that Philly is worse than the team that made the playoffs last year - to actually bet the Pats with Hurts playing.
Did the fact that The NFC East Division had the best win percentage last year in the league? capping isnt trends.
Its the current team potential vs public perception from Historical betting habits...
The only way for Philly to lose this game is with Hurts having a career low game or getting injured.

Just trying to help. GL

 

[BigLouReturns]

33	G-Man!	1	2	2	2	3	1	2	4	1.5	1	3.5	2		1	2	1	2	2
30.5	FearTheRaven	3	2	3	2.5	1.5	2	1	4	2.5	0	2	4		3
27	BLAK_MAMBA	1	3	3	2	3	3	1	3	2		2	3	1
24.5	wizardofodd	2	2	2	2.5	4	2	2		2	3	3
18.5	Minura	4	1	3	1.5	2	3	2	2
11	Soccerguru	2	1	2			3	3
2	MULEKICK	2

Near the absolute bottom in last years Westgate style contest and then proceeds to go 3-14 in the postseason, the worst playoff betting run I've ever seen. Why the fuck is G-man giving advice on the NFL?

 

[Avocado33]

49ers, Texans, Bucs, Cowboys, Dolphins

Lean Chiefs

 

[G-Man!]

Why the fuck is G-man giving advice on the NFL?

Because Trends dont work.
You would do better if you got away from Trends and actually learned to cap games by production on the current teams players.
I hear your cage rattling? Relax Louie.
Just trying to help...

I thought you had me on ignore?

 

[BigLouReturns]

Read what other posters are "thinking."

Do all your own research.

 

[DocHolliday]

Because Trends dont work.
You would do better if you got away from Trends and actually learned to cap games by production on the current teams players.
I hear your cage rattling? Relax Louie.
Just trying to help...

I thought you had me on ignore?

This guy has lost 3 of the past 4 NFL seasons and he’s trying to tell people how to CAP games?

He’s trying to tell people what does and what doesn’t work?

The best advice to give anyone is… whatever M108K uses to cap games… use the opposite.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Doc - can you delete that losers picks from my thread please?

 

[DocHolliday]

Tried can’t. I don’t have the edit skills. I do apologize. No need to give the man the platform he wants yet picks can’t grasp

 

[BigLouReturns]

Some rules I live by.

S.T.A.S.H. - Stop Thinking and Start Handicapping. There are way too many people out there doing too much thinking and not enough handicapping.

"Again no Kelce but I don't think it will be a problem at all."

Found this in another posters writeup. I love when other people make my point for me.

 

[G-Man!]

"Again no Kelce but I don't think it will be a problem at all."

Found this in another posters writeup. I love when other people make my point for me.

Always bringing up bashing remarks Louie. Someone says how they feel about Kelce and you bash them for that.
If you could think you wouldn't play trends. You dont handicap anything. You are a rude moron to take someones remark on a player and tell them not to think?
I see you tailed my Lions Play...But chickened-out on a ML play?

LOL...

Too bad you keep telling people not to think...like youre some kind of expert in Phycology.

Game has Chiefs win, Lions cover written all over it

Some rules I live by.

S.T.A.S.H. - Stop Thinking and Start Handicapping. There are way too many people out there doing too much thinking and not enough handicapping.

Accept your losses as losses. The only way to get better is to stop coming up with excuses for your losses and accept the fact that you were on the wrong side.

Here we go...What this?

Don't overreact to injuries.

Thats "Thinking" Louie.

Focus on your research and information and completely tune out the sports media. This includes watching shows like Hard Knocks. Tune that shit out.

Thats "Thinking" Louie.

Your record is not what it was last year, the year before or the year before that. Understand every year is a new season and your record is 0-0 until the games start being played. Anyone can and will have a bad season if you handicap for a long time. Reminiscing about what you did in the past is for losers.

Record Its not? But all you do is bring up the parts of my record for every year that lost (That means your a loser) but you never posted all the winning records/ Thats "Thinking" Louie.

Don't watch preseason football and expect to get a feel for a team. What do the 2008 Lions and the 2017 Browns have in common? They both went 4-0 in the preseason and both went 0-16 during the regular season.

Thats "Thinking" Louie.

"Any Given Sunday" definitely applies to week one. Don't be too quick to fade teams in week one that are poised to have a really bad season. Almost every year there is an upset in week one by a team that goes on to stink out the joint the rest of the season. Here are the results for the last 26 years.

Again every quote above you made...- is "THINKING" Louie...All of which you tell everyone to STOP Thinking! LOL
You have many serious mental health issues fat boy.

 

[G-Man!]

This game has upset written all over it.

NOT!

 

[G-Man!]

"Again no Kelce but I don't think it will be a problem at all."

Found this in another posters writeup. I love when other people make my point for me.

How'd that turnout?

 

[G-Man!]

"Is this true?'

Ask G-man.

Lions +6.5 (Caesars) over KC. 10 Units................................W+1000
Detroit ML +190. 2 units...........................................................W+380
Saints ML -170 over Tennessee. 5 units................................W+500
Browns +2.5 (MGM) over Bengals. 10 units.........................W+1000
Pittsburgh +2.5 over SF. 10 Units...............................................................L-1100
Baltimore -9.5 over Houston. 5 units....................................W+500
Jacksonville -5 over Colts. 10 units......................................W+500
Arizona +7 over Washington. 5 units.................................W+500
Miami +3 over Chargers. 10 units ...................................W+1000
Eagles ML over New England/ 10 units .........................W+1000

Week One.
9-1. +5,280.00

 

[G-Man!]

G-Man ou don't know shit about football. That's why you finished almost dead last in the rx contest and then had the worst post-season run I've ever seen.

Hey Lou
My plays week 1.

Lions +6.5 (Caesars) over KC. 10 Units................................W+1000
Detroit ML +190. 2 units...........................................................W+380
Saints ML -170 over Tennessee. 5 units................................W+500
Browns +2.5 (MGM) over Bengals. 10 units.........................W+1000
Pittsburgh +2.5 over SF. 10 Units...............................................................L-1100
Baltimore -9.5 over Houston. 5 units....................................W+500
Jacksonville -5 over Colts. 10 units......................................W+500
Arizona +7 over Washington. 5 units.................................W+500
Miami +3 over Chargers. 10 units ...................................W+1000
Eagles ML over New England/ 10 units .........................W+1000

Week One.
9-1. +5,280.00