Some rules I live by.
S.T.A.S.H. - Stop Thinking and Start Handicapping. There are way too many people out there doing too much thinking and not enough handicapping.
Accept your losses as losses. The only way to get better is to stop coming up with excuses for your losses and accept the fact that you were on the wrong side.
Don't overreact to injuries.
Focus on your research and information and completely tune out the sports media. This includes watching shows like Hard Knocks. Tune that shit out.
Your record is not what it was last year, the year before or the year before that. Understand every year is a new season and your record is 0-0 until the games start being played. Anyone can and will have a bad season if you handicap for a long time. Reminiscing about what you did in the past is for losers.
Don't watch preseason football and expect to get a feel for a team. What do the 2008 Lions and the 2017 Browns have in common? They both went 4-0 in the preseason and both went 0-16 during the regular season.
"Any Given Sunday" definitely applies to week one. Don't be too quick to fade teams in week one that are poised to have a really bad season. Almost every year there is an upset in week one by a team that goes on to stink out the joint the rest of the season. Here are the results for the last 26 years.
1997 - Both the Cardinals and the Bears would finish 4-12 SU but covered on opening day.
1998 - The Bears again would go 4-12 on the season but cover in week one.
1999 - The Saints finish 3-13 on the year but win SU & ATS against the Panthers opening day.
2000 & 2001 - Not one but two teams go 1-15 on the season and manage to cover in week one, the Chargers in 2000 and the Panthers in 2001. (Carolina won SU as 10 point dogs at Minnesota and then would lose 15 straight to close out the season).
2002 - None
2003 - The Giants win SU & ATS week one but only win 3 games the rest of the year.
2004 - Both the Browns and 49ers cover in week one but finish 4-12 and 2-14 respectively.
2005 - Both the Saints and 49ers cover in week one but finish 3-13 and 4-12 respectively.
2006 - The Lions finish 3-13 on the season but cover as 6 point dogs at home to the Super Bowl runner up Seattle Seahawks.
2007 - None
2008 - Kansas City Chiefs go 2-14 but cover against the Super Bowl runner up Patriots opening day. (The year before was the 16-0 regular season for New England).
2009 - Washington goes 4-12 but covers in week one.
2010 - None
2011 - The Vikings finish the season 3-13 but cover as road dogs to the Chargers in week one.
2012 - The eventual 2-14 Jaguars cover as road dogs at Minnesota, almost pulling off the upset as the game went into OT.
2013 - The Raiders cover as road dogs to the Jets but finish the season 4-12 SU.
2014 - The Raiders again have a rough year finishing 3-13 but cover in week one. The Titans finish the season 2-14 but win SU opening day at Arrowhead against the Chiefs.
2015 - Once again the Titans have a terrible season finishing 3-13 but win SU week one at Tampa Bay. Also, the Chargers would finish 4-12 that year but won SU & ATS week one.
2016 - The 49ers finish 2-14 but win SU & ATS by a score of 28-0 at home on opening day.
2017 - The eventual 0-16 Cleveland Browns cover as home dogs to the Steelers in week one. QB Deshone Kizer was making his first ever start for Cleveland.
2018 - The Jets finish 4-12 that season but win SU as 7 point road dogs to the Lions on MNF by a score of 48-17. QB Sam Darnold was making his first ever start for NY.
2019 - The eventual 2-14 Bengals cover as 9.5 point road dogs at Seattle, losing 21-20.
2020 - The Jaguars win SU as 7 point home dogs to the Colts but would lose their last 15 games.
2021 - The Texans easily defeat the Jaguars 37-21 opening day last year but finish the season 4-13.
2022 - The Bears defeat the 49ers 19-10 as 6.5 point home dogs. They end up 3-14 and the 49ers make it to the conference finals.
