Week 9: Sunday Openers

[ofred]

Both of these were too appealing to lay off:

1* USC -16.5 What RLM on this game. Many more bets coming in on the public dog ever since Sunday, yet the line continues to move the other way. I think I know why. Cal players are somewhat exhausted from their double OT game with Oregon, have midterms this week(they take school seriously in Berkeley) and have missed practice, and now face another short week before playing a very physical game on the road. USC, meanwhile, is feel rested off a bye. USC has looked very good in their last few games. Though they didn't cover the Colorado game, they should have. In fact, they handled Colorado fairly easily, but made enough mistakes to keep them in the game. Seems like a ridiculous spread and that's what makes it so easy to take Cal, and that's what the books want. This play says that USC puts it altogether in a home game vs. a tired team with no defense. I mean it, no defense.

1* Buffalo +17.5 A bad weather game. About 50% chance of rain or showers, with wind. Gusts up to the low 30s. I could take the under here, but I kind of think that these 2 defenses are just bad enough to allow plenty of points in bad weather. I'll take the points because Buffalo has the more mobile QB and Tyree Jackson has played much better his last 3 games than the ones before it(he's a freshman). Akron has a couple of games where they beat a spread like this, but only because their opponents committed multiple turnovers to none for Akron. Akron should win, but this is a lot of points on the road in bad weather in a fairly empty stadium.

 

[tool21]

Just to add to your USC pick, their rocky start was caused by poor performance from Junior QB Max Browne. Since they switched him out for Freshman, Sam Darnold, the offense is back to form. Combine that with Cal's at best mediocre defense, and USC should have an easy time putting points on the board. G/L

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

USC -20 now

 

[ofred]

USC -20 now

I was just about to up that play to a 2* when I saw the line change. Quite a move. Wish I played the 2* earlier.

 

[Gooch]

I was just about to up that play to a 2* when I saw the line change. Quite a move. Wish I played the 2* earlier.

Beautiful middle opp!

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

16.5 to 20? not that great of a middle there. Once you get past 10-13 pts, the value on each point for a middle severely decreases in college football

 

[ofred]

Those MAC games looking like great unders. Shocked at how poorly Toledo's offense has played in the past 2 weeks. App. ST getting killed by 2 turnovers.

 

[ofred]

16.5 to 20? not that great of a middle there. Once you get past 10-13 pts, the value on each point for a middle severely decreases in college football

Exactly right. Middles usually mean the bettor goes 1-1 and ends up paying the juice.

 

[ofred]

2* Eastern Michigan -7 In my perusing the media of the college football world, I noticed that Chris Fallica of ESPN picked Miami,OH as one of his plays because of their defense. So I investigated. Right away, I could tell he hadn't really researched this pick, it was more of a noticing of a few scores that were low scoring. Well…ESPN has this great stat called "Efficiency", and it is for offenses, defenses and special teams. It incorporates points contributed per play, while taking into account strength of schedule, and diminishing stats accomplished in garbage time. Miami is 125th in offensive efficiency and 93rd in defensive efficiency. Great defense, huh? What makes Miami such bad team is their offense though. They have had one good running game, last game vs. Bowling Green- a team that is at the bottom of defensive efficiency(their D stunk last year too). Their starting QB has been out and his backup, Gus Ragland, also has one decent game- you guessed it, Bowling Green. Nothing worse than a MAC team that can't run the ball, and has a 93rd ranked defense. But Miami is riding a 2 game win streak vs. Kent and BG. For Miami that's a big deal, but I think it works against them. They are so relieved to have won 2 games in a row for the first time in 4 years, that I think they are in for a road letdown.

EMU's coach, Chris Creighton, could be MAC coach of the year if not for last week's opponent, WMU's PJ Fleck- who is having a more remarkable year. EMU received much praise from WMU staff and fans in their 14 point loss @ WMU. "Well-coached team, very good OL and DL, QB Brogan Roback has a nice feel for the game and hits his receivers in stride. " EMU is a pretty well balanced team that has made major strides this year going 5-3. They have found a running game with freshman Breck Turner, Roback is playing well, and their defense held WMU's running game in check, which almost no one else has been able to. EMU has brought in some JC players and transfers that have helped fill in the gaps on a team that has been woeful in previous years. This play mostly benefits from Miami's ineptness on offense… an O that has given up 29 sacks and rushes for 3.0 ypc. Roback has been sacked just twice.

 

[ofred]

App State dominated, scoring 34 in a row after giving up a fumble TD early. Need USC for a sweep.

 

[Locksmith]

Good work sir.

 

[ofred]

USC gouging Cal for long runs. Not surprising as I watched Oregon State(for god sakes) do the same to Cal. Early though..

 

[MackDonald]

Never in doubt......................a sweep.

 

[Skeeter123]

Nice start to the week Fred!

:toast:

 

[fballgenius]

fred, very nice 3-0 Thursday night. Good luck the rest of your picks. Thanks for posting.

 

[ofred]

On the Sharp topic earlier in this thread: As I said before, sharp movement should be respected and I know I pay attention to it, but it probably is close to 50% like the rest of us. Last night sharp money moved Akron from 17.5 to 19(lost), and the total down 3 or 4 points(lost). Large sharp money pushed the USC game from 13.5 to almost 21. That's signaling a blowout by the sharp players. Yet Cal came within 10 yards of a backdoor cover in which almost everyone would have lost. However, in defense, USC looked in control the whole game, ran on Cal easily, and was the much better D. Still..maybe the points were just too many.

 

[ofred]

1* Navy +6 Should have grabbed this at 6.5 or paid for the 7, but it's still a good play at 6. Do you think that maybe the AAC is regretting allowing Navy into the conference prior to 2015? During the stretch of a long series of games, you have just 4-5 days to prepare for the Navy triple option attack. Now if you're defense played against it a couple times a year, fine. But here USF is playing their 9th game in a row without a bye having to play the Navy attack, after getting pulverized by the Temple offense for 319 rushing yards. Navy had a young offense beginning the year, lost their starting QB, and yet here they are almost in a new season after beating Houston and Memphis. Also, they have had 2 byes since their ECU game was postponed. Navy's rushing defense is 24th ranked while USF's rushing defense is 112th ranked. Two run heavy offenses, and that's a telling stat. Now USF is the better passing team, and I have no doubt that is why they are favored here(besides being at home) by 6 and not 3 or 4. But even Navy's pass D is ranked 43rd so they're competitive.

Navy has many Florida players so I think we'll see their usual great effort and passion, but +1. Quinton Flowers tweaked his hamstring last week, but sounds fine. He is a dynamic player who if he plays really well, can make the difference here. He is the reason I have this as a 1* and didn't bet it earlier. Let's hope he tweaks that hammy a little tonight and we get to see his backup.

Last year, USF was cruising along on a 3 game win streak, lost to Navy, and then proceeded to win their last 4. So there is some precedent here of the Navy offense being hard to prepare for on a one week basis.

 

[ofred]

2* Kansas +40 Once again, I delayed and lost a couple of points here, but the 40 is enough for this kind of play. On a play with a heavy underdog, I always look for some possible negatives with the favorite. With Oklahoma, there's this: Their defense has been awful this year, and I'm not even including the 854 yards given to Texas Tech last week. Their linebacking corps has been criticized all year for tackling and missed assignments, and now the front 7 is decimated by injuries. The whole defense was worn down from the TT game, and now faces Iowa State next Thursday on a short week. At least 4-5 starters will be out, and Stoops has said that the rotation up there is getting mighty small. Oklahoma does have a prolific offense, but I don't think we'll see the same type of shootout like last week with Tech. It's not necessary, and with Perrine out, does Stoops really want to overuse Mixon in a game they'll surely win? The Oklahoma OL has also taken its fair share of criticism too. Baker Mayfield is great sliding and scrambling, but he's on the move way too often. And getting hit too often. The Kansas defense is not nearly as bad as last year. They are 2nd in the Big 12 for TFLs, have 20 sacks, and are 59th in pass defense(last year they were near dead last of 130 or so teams). I think OC Lincoln Riley calls a more conservative game, and uses more of his bench.

The Kansas offense is also much improved. If not for their -13 TO margin, they would have played more competitive. They were out yarded by OK. State last week by only 28, nearly beat TCU (out yarding TCU by 100+), and have a decent semblance of a running and passing game that they didn't have last year. Their top 2 runners, Kinner and Herbert, have ypc averages of 5.2 and 5.9. And Taylor Martin is the fast, quick guy that can break off big ones. Montell Cozart, their QB, has a 62.3% completion average, with some mobility. I think Kansas will run well enough vs. this Oklahoma defense to eat up clock, and score 3-4 times. Kansas runs a lot of multiple receiver sets usually, without the fast tempo(keeping the clock running), but I think they'll run more trying to play keep away from the OU offense, and keeping down the turnovers and sacks.

This number is 40 for a reason. Kansas has a pretty good DL and can bring the pressure, but they will struggle to cover the Sooner WRs. Hoping Oklahoma plays it close to the vest and rests it starters since after Iowa State, they get Baylor and WVU. The key here is that Kansas can take advantage of a Sooner D that is tired, banged up and generally less talented than any OU defense in a long while.

 

[ofred]

Navy looks like a loser. USF running game looks unstoppable. Giving 1 unit back from last night.

 

[Travex]

TIL they don't kick the extra point if there is no time left and it doesn't help make a tie/win. Almost had a backdoor push on Navy, damn.