Week 3: Still Underrated

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This spread crossed 7 which scares me off, but I think USC makes a a game of it. No play because of USC's habit of losing heart when getting behind.

Thank you for getting back to me my friend. BOL and continued success.
 

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2* Colorado +18.5 Feel really stupid not jumping on the 20 even though I have liked this game for 2-3 days. I think I am also under the Harbaugh spell too. Jim Harbaugh deserves all the accolades he's gotten bringing Michigan back to national prominence again. Take away their game 1 loss at Utah last year and Michigan's season was quite incredible. Anyways, Michigan has blown out teams, in the past 2 years, who have had major offensive issues(UCF, Northwestern, Maryland, Hawaii, Oregon State, Rutgers, etc.), but has a tougher time and closer game when the opponents are more like Colorado. I think those blowouts and Harbaugh's great reputation cloud just how good Michigan is right now, and how an offense like Colorado's might make it interesting.

Colorado's QB, Sefo Liafau, was a mess last year, with an injury in his throwing shoulder, and other assorted ailments. This year he is healthy and his OL is improved enough to allow the passing game to flourish. I wouldn't take Colorado here if Liafau wasn't a mobile guy that can buy time maneuvering in the pocket. Liafau is actually a much better passer than you might think. Nice touch on the long ball, can drill it in short and medium, and has the ability to throw on the run. With Michigan's defense, it'll be a challenge, but Colorado has a running game and a respected coach, Mike MacIntyre- who has his team feeling confident at 2-0.

Michigan is still fairly conservative with short passes and a lot of running. They don't rush it, keeping the clock running and this could help when you are large underdog. Colorado has shown improvement this year on defense, holding rival Colorado St. to 7 points. But they haven't faced anyone like Michigan. Colorado has to play this game taking chances offensively and defensively, but I think they will play it to win. I think Michigan struggles a bit in pass defense and Colorado keeps it competitive. Michigan getting the money, but Colorado getting the line movement.
 

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Rice covers! And yet I could have gotten +34. Shoulda waited...
 

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1* Teaser(+150) - V Tech/ BC- under 47.5 Florida St./ Louisville- under 74 WSU/ Idaho- over 61.5 Like all of these totals even at their regular number. Might hit one or two later.
 

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Did hit the small 1* tonight, but beware. Have been losing the majority of these going back to bowl season. Nevertheless, I really like 'em. Some almost got a 2*

1* Idaho +26.5 Even though I won my largest play going against them, they impressed me at times. The Huskies D got lucky a little, or caused a crucial turnover, but the score didn't indicate how good their offense looked. Now they are playing a frustrated Wazzu team that definitely has defensive issues and a very pissed off coach. But I can't forget about WSU's first week's loss, giving up 45 to EWU Idaho will score in the 20-30 range, and cover this. No way they win, but this is my favorite of the bunch.

1* Tulane +5.5 I'm a big Willie Fritz fan, and I think the coaching there-assisstants included-will make a difference at Tulane sooner than later. Tulane's front 7 is already their best grouping, and they are fast and athletic enough to slow down Navy. Tulane will also run their own version of an option. Little passing here overall. Tulane is at home and Navy is down to their 2nd string QB, with many new faces on offense.

1* Texas State +30.5 Have to take this as Arkansas in a perfect sandwich here between a tight TCU game and Texas A&M next week. Really think the Texas St. QB, Tyler Jones, is special. Very deceptive in running the option, and can pass, move and pass, or run for nice yardage. Arkansas physically outmatches Texas ST, but they do have a new QB and some other issues. The points! Love the points with a live QB.

1* Auburn -3 A&M a big public dog, but at 3, I have to go against the s#@t show that is the Aggies. A&M has been a different team on the road with Sumlin, and not in a good way. Auburn looked very good defensively vs. Clemson, and they need this game here at home. A&M looked a bit lucky beating UCLA, and I like the coaching matchup here. Both have offensive problems, but I like Malzahn's ability to overcome them better than Sumlin's.
 

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Okay…here we go. Two of those plays I'm on, but you should just watch in delight that you were smart enough to lay off.

1* Georgia State +35.5 Wisconsin's Corey Clement is questionable, and I doubt he plays considering the opponent. In fact, Wisconsin has many injuries and I think they play this game in self-preservation mode. Wisconsin begins their brutal Big 10 schedule next week, and they may call off the dogs early. Ga. State ended their regular season last year with 4 straight victories including crushing Georgia Southern. They also played in a bowl game, although losing. Ga. State has been dreadful this year, but they return most of their starters, and I can't understand why they have started out so poorly. Other than QB, they are experienced across the board. Playing at Air Force was a tough game on the road, as will this be, but still this is 35.5 for a reason. Ga. State is bad, but this play says they aren't as bad as they've looked.

1* Rice +31.5 Now you are wondering if I've really lost my mind. Rice is at home..that's the good news for Rice. Rice is a well-coached team and Bailiff has gotten a lot of wins out less talent than many other coaches from low tier teams. I realize the matchup problems here against the Baylor offense. Baylor, though, is very thin all over. The OL and DL lost a ton of talent from last year, Johnny Jefferson is gone, and they are playing for one more good year after the offseason when Briles left along with many transfers and decommits. This program is in trouble, and based on their struggles with SMU last week, it could be that Baylor is already suffering from their offseason loss of so many talented players. Baylor has Okie State on deck, and with their lack of depth, they will also be careful with their star offensive players. I just also think Rice shows some pride here at home and plays it competitively for a while.
Georgia State down 3 with the ball in the 4th quarter. I hope someone tailed this play. Anyone?
 

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Fred.......didn't have the guts to do so, but I know better that to go against you...........nice call..........indy
 

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Fred has solid picks an the best write ups at theRx. A must read every week. Good fortune to you in the night caps.
 

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