Week 3: Still Underrated

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If you don't mind me stepping in.....

Brady Hoke was supposed to turn around 2015's terrible defense, but it looks worse this year.

It's not an easy task changing defenses, especially moving from an even to odd front while losing a lot of good players in the front 7. Watching the Virginia game, they look so thin. Keep it close and that 4th quarter could be rough for that D.

Nebraska has a questionable WR Alonzo Moore(who is a starter and very good).

I believe he will play. His is a shoulder, which I think is what ailed him last year and he played through it. Brandon Reilly is the other deep threat/jet sweep guy that is hurt with some recurring hamstring issues. For the role they play on the team, I put them 1a and 1b, so losing either one is tough. Reilly probably will have to sit this one out.
 

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Ward was not limited at all in practice this week. He might have played last week if the game was important, but it was Lamar. From what I've read, his shoulder is still sore, but he is throwing just fine. The outlier is that if he lands on that shoulder, he could have problems. I think Herman will dial back too many Ward runs, but often he takes off while ad-libbing(something makes him so damn good). The back backup, Postma, is no Ward but is a decent dual threat. Can break off big runs, but is just an average passer. Has played quite a bit the last 2 years. Cinn. gave up over 500 yards to Purdue last week, and the game would have been closer, or Purdue could have won, IF they didn't give up a 5-0 TO edge. I just think Houston has a large defensive edge here.

Oh..and ask any question you want as long as it's related. Please, no drama.

Sorry for SportsFanatic.........dude stalks me everywhere i go. Like an ex girlfriend i never wanted. As always, i support your plays and play them! Thanks and go COOGS!
 

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Didn't he explain this in his writeup? Not sure if anything has changed. O'FRED........?

His original write up is two days old.
It is now game day.
I was wondering if there are any updates.
His play is a huge factor. Will they be careful with him or will he go 100% all out full speed? Big difference.
 

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Houston defense was the story here. Tough to win these weekday games on the road, but again, they dominate at some point in the game.
 

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Houston defense was the story here. Tough to win these weekday games on the road, but again, they dominate at some point in the game.

What a great 4th Qtr ending!!! GO COOGS GO! Thank you for a great start.
 

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His original write up is two days old.
It is now game day.
I was wondering if there are any updates.
His play is a huge factor. Will they be careful with him or will he go 100% all out full speed? Big difference.

I hope you won w/ us on Ward & the COOGS!!! Good luck this weekend Serbone (sorry if i came off stand-offish.....not my style). Cheers bud.
 

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Uncle Freddie totally agreed with you on Houston, underrated team.
As far as Neb vs Ore here is my take.
I still do not get all the love for Nebraska this team is NOT that good, two 4th quarter explosions with tons of gifts from shit teams led to what looked like dominating wins against sub mediocre competition. Oregon has MUCH better team speed all over the field. That being said, Oregon's idiotic play and lack of discipline could very well mean they lose this game. The last Virginia TD drive that back door shit in my parlay was full of roughing the QB and pass interference penalties, plus a drop that kept that drive alive.
I could see the Ducks doing the same stupid shit against Nebraska with roughing the QB and defensive holding on 3rd and 8s keeping Nebraska drives alive and leading to TDs that shouldn't have happened. Bottom line is both of these teams are as erratic as hell, I could see it being a 3 pt win for either or a 21 pt wipeout for either. My advice is to avoid this one there are much better games on the docket for Saturday...
 

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Unfortunately, we're opposite on Oregon / Nebraska.....the positive side is that 1 of us will win =)
 

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Uncle Freddie totally agreed with you on Houston, underrated team.
As far as Neb vs Ore here is my take.
I still do not get all the love for Nebraska this team is NOT that good, two 4th quarter explosions with tons of gifts from shit teams led to what looked like dominating wins against sub mediocre competition. Oregon has MUCH better team speed all over the field. That being said, Oregon's idiotic play and lack of discipline could very well mean they lose this game. The last Virginia TD drive that back door shit in my parlay was full of roughing the QB and pass interference penalties, plus a drop that kept that drive alive.
I could see the Ducks doing the same stupid shit against Nebraska with roughing the QB and defensive holding on 3rd and 8s keeping Nebraska drives alive and leading to TDs that shouldn't have happened. Bottom line is both of these teams are as erratic as hell, I could see it being a 3 pt win for either or a 21 pt wipeout for either. My advice is to avoid this one there are much better games on the docket for Saturday...
I don't see the team speed edge at all when the Ducks are on defense. You have to remember, Oregon played a bad Virginia team and UC Davis. Oregon's problems are more than idiotic play. And they haven't played a defense even closely resembling Nebraska's. Memorial Stadium in Lincoln is a tough place to play, and I think it'll be a big factor here.
 

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Okay…here we go. Two of those plays I'm on, but you should just watch in delight that you were smart enough to lay off.

1* Georgia State +35.5 Wisconsin's Corey Clement is questionable, and I doubt he plays considering the opponent. In fact, Wisconsin has many injuries and I think they play this game in self-preservation mode. Wisconsin begins their brutal Big 10 schedule next week, and they may call off the dogs early. Ga. State ended their regular season last year with 4 straight victories including crushing Georgia Southern. They also played in a bowl game, although losing. Ga. State has been dreadful this year, but they return most of their starters, and I can't understand why they have started out so poorly. Other than QB, they are experienced across the board. Playing at Air Force was a tough game on the road, as will this be, but still this is 35.5 for a reason. Ga. State is bad, but this play says they aren't as bad as they've looked.

1* Rice +31.5 Now you are wondering if I've really lost my mind. Rice is at home..that's the good news for Rice. Rice is a well-coached team and Bailiff has gotten a lot of wins out less talent than many other coaches from low tier teams. I realize the matchup problems here against the Baylor offense. Baylor, though, is very thin all over. The OL and DL lost a ton of talent from last year, Johnny Jefferson is gone, and they are playing for one more good year after the offseason when Briles left along with many transfers and decommits. This program is in trouble, and based on their struggles with SMU last week, it could be that Baylor is already suffering from their offseason loss of so many talented players. Baylor has Okie State on deck, and with their lack of depth, they will also be careful with their star offensive players. I just also think Rice shows some pride here at home and plays it competitively for a while.
 

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Looks like Alonzo Moore will play for Nebraska. Their #1(Westerkamp) and #2(Moore) are in, #3 (Reilly) is still questionable. Lots of Duck bettors here and there, including 2/3 of the public.

3* Missouri +7 (-125)

I'm assuming this spread is where it is, and 70% of the bets are on Georgia, are mostly because of Kirby Smart and Nick Chubb. And other reasons. But Georgia feasted on a lot of weak offenses last year, both in the SEC and out(a lot of close games). I'm also not sure that they are NOT overrated due to Smart's hiring and Chubb's prolific running abilities. Georgia made a great hire in Smart, but there is rumbling that the team looks somewhat unfocused, as evidence by last week's almost loss to a very bad FCS team Nicholls State. The most concerning thing was that the Georgia OL could not muster any kind of push vs. Nicholls State's DL. That's why Chubb's running numbers were underwhelming. Also, Georgia's situation at QB is a big reason I like Missouri. Freshman Jacob Eason is still pretty raw, and not that mobile. Greyson Lambert is a poor option if they go with the experienced QB. Missouri's defense has not been as stalwart as expected so far, but I like their chances vs. a one dimensional offense at home.

Missouri's biggest concern going into the season was their young OL and Drew Lock, the QB. Both have performed well. Lock's OC, Josh Heupel, had to get that week #1 game out of their system @ West Virginia, but I think we'll see a much less predictable and more diverse offense. Heupel's offense is based on distributing the ball to all the skill players, while keeping the run an important aspect of the O. Lock has not thrown an interception and looks to be making good decisions so far. I'm sure Georgia will test him, but I imagine that Heupel will have the offense prepared.

Much of this play is going with a much improved Missouri offense, Georgia being a bit overrated with Ole Miss and Tennessee on deck, and then there is last week's game with Nicholls State. I know you can't read into any one game too much, but that was 60 minutes at home in a game they could have lost. Now they go on the road playing a Missouri team that will make Nick Chubb priority #1. Huge game for the Tigers, Georgia-not as much.
 

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3* Georgia Southern -26

This play is getting in early on the ULM season which is about to fall apart. ULM has a severe lack of talent, especially on the defensive side. The reason I went for the game bet, and not the 1H bet, is that Georgia Southern really has 2 very good starting QBs. Big lead in the 1H? They'll keep running and keep scoring, grinding down this badly mismatched ULM defense. I much rather have a running type offense protecting a big lead than a passing O which tends to get waaaay too conservative and is happy to punt and keep field position. ULM' s defense got whipped early and easily at Oklahoma last week, and then Oklahoma pulled the starters for the 2H. The score would have been more like 70-7 if the Sooners had kept at it. Ga So. runs a very difficult to stop triple option that is very hard to defend unless the opponent's D is very fast in the front 7 and can plug the gaps. ULM loses the majority of last year's D, and their recruiting has been as about as bad as any FBS team in the country, and is the bottom in all of the FBS in financial support.

Ga. Southern gets all of their top runners back this year and have a defense that is underrated. They stuffed South Alabama on the road last week, holding them to 9 points. Yes, S. Ala, the team that upset Miss. State in week one. Georgia Southern, last year, held Georgia to 23, Bowling Green to 27(crushing them in their bowl game), and Western Michigan to 17. Ga. Southern returns their front 7, which is their strength. The secondary is young, but held up well vs. S. Ala. and now has 2 games under their belt. They have actually been a tough D the past 3 years even though they are known for their high-powered offense. New coach Tyson Summers is a former DC and that is his forte. ULM's only bright spot is their QB, Garrett Smith, a dual threat qb that may get a score or two, but in the end GS just wears down this ULM defense, monopolizing the time of possession. Smith, in the last 2 years, has been inconsistent vs. better competition, and his running abilities negated by poor OL play.
 

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3* Georgia Southern -26

This play is getting in early on the ULM season which is about to fall apart. ULM has a severe lack of talent, especially on the defensive side. The reason I went for the game bet, and not the 1H bet, is that Georgia Southern really has 2 very good starting QBs. Big lead in the 1H? They'll keep running and keep scoring, grinding down this badly mismatched ULM defense. I much rather have a running type offense protecting a big lead than a passing O which tends to get waaaay too conservative and is happy to punt and keep field position. ULM' s defense got whipped early and easily at Oklahoma last week, and then Oklahoma pulled the starters for the 2H. The score would have been more like 70-7 if the Sooners had kept at it. Ga So. runs a very difficult to stop triple option that is very hard to defend unless the opponent's D is very fast in the front 7 and can plug the gaps. ULM loses the majority of last year's D, and their recruiting has been as about as bad as any FBS team in the country, and is the bottom in all of the FBS in financial support.

Ga. Southern gets all of their top runners back this year and have a defense that is underrated. They stuffed South Alabama on the road last week, holding them to 9 points. Yes, S. Ala, the team that upset Miss. State in week one. Georgia Southern, last year, held Georgia to 23, Bowling Green to 27(crushing them in their bowl game), and Western Michigan to 17. Ga. Southern returns their front 7, which is their strength. The secondary is young, but held up well vs. S. Ala. and now has 2 games under their belt. They have actually been a tough D the past 3 years even though they are known for their high-powered offense. New coach Tyson Summers is a former DC and that is his forte. ULM's only bright spot is their QB, Garrett Smith, a dual threat qb that may get a score or two, but in the end GS just wears down this ULM defense, monopolizing the time of possession. Smith, in the last 2 years, has been inconsistent vs. better competition, and his running abilities negated by poor OL play.
ULM also loses to eligibility their speed RB, Tyler Cain- who was supposed to start.
 

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4* Notre Dame -7 I know this pick will bring plenty of disagreement(hopefully with some respect). This play is going against a major public dog, Michigan State. Also, there are many ND haters out there who find any reason to disparage them. I could care less about what has been or Notre Dame's penchant for letting their bettors down. Tomorrow, Notre Dame brings, what I think is a legitimate top 5 offense to this game while MSU is clearly in the early stages of rebuilding their offense. It's hard to know just where MSU is, only playing Furman(where the hell is Furman?)- a mid-range FCS school. A game they had to play for 60 minutes to win. Tyler O'Connor is a serviceable backup who usually only played in garbage time when Connor Cook was done for the day. He has young receivers and a so-so OL. But the main thing missing is Connor Cook, and I see a much less dynamic offense. Now Notre Dame has issues in the secondary, but I'm not sure that MSU can take advantage of that. ND is stouter up front which plays to the MSU strength of running the ball. Against Furman they rushed at 4.3 ypc. Okay, but ND will be tougher to run against.

Really though, the main reason I like ND is DeShone Kizer. He looks like the better version of himself from last year. MSU still has some talent left from their glory days on the defense, but clearly most of that is in the NFL. Kizer just looks almost pro-like out there, and with RB Josh Adams and his talented receivers(he spreads it out well), I can't see MSU keeping up. Kizer looks unfazed out there no matter what the situation, and his passing accuracy is at a different level this year. Notre Dame at home, needing a win desperately, and though 7 seems a bit steep, I don't think it is. The books, considering all the money piling on MSU have not dropped to 6.5 and at times it's been 8. I think they want MSU money. Just my humble opinion.
 

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I really enjoy reading your insights and will tail your plays. Any insights on USC/Stanford?
 

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I really enjoy reading your insights and will tail your plays. Any insights on USC/Stanford?
This spread crossed 7 which scares me off, but I think USC makes a a game of it. No play because of USC's habit of losing heart when getting behind.
 

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